Australia have never lost in South Africa since readmission. Yet we have lost three times at home to South Africa. Three of our four home losses since 1988. Ashes are over, no more Shield cricket so nothing left to watch to pick the 16. The certainties: Steve Smith (c), David Warner (vc), Usman Khawaja, Shaun Marsh, Mitch Marsh, Tim Paine, Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, Patrick Cummins. That leaves six spots with one warm up game before the Test that game will have to be the Test 11. So hard to force your way into this side now. The I think they're safe group: Cameron Bancroft, Peter Handscomb, Jackson Bird and Chadd Sayers. Handscomb could be the second keepr and cover the batting. Bancroft hanging on just. Bird and Sayers are the back up bowlers. Last three seasons of Shield: Sayers 22 games. 111 wickets. @22.43 SR 48.77 Bird 16 games. 83 wickets. @20.05 SR 42.66 Rough chance: Joe Burns, Ashton Agar, Mitchell Swepson. Burns coming off 200. Swepson coming off a 5 wickets against SA- average is still too high but they can work on like they did in India. Agar-seems to be a pet project. I think the two remaining spots will come from these three. South Africa have a lot more right handed batsmen so Swepson and Agar turning it the opposite way could work. Too many stories about Maxwell warnings, I think he's going down the Jones, Hodge and Harvey path- could make 300 runs and not be included- too hard. Renshaw too far behind now so I would go Burns. But they have similar Test records but Burns is just in much better form at the moment. That gives you the starting 11 from the Ashes, Two back up batsmen, two back up quicks with a seamer and swing bowler and a young spinner project.