Climate Change: Fact or Fiction

theshed

NRL Captain
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With all due respect, the tangents you’re drawing aren’t as similar as they seem.

COVID-19 is a known issue. It’s happening, and fast. It’s causing deaths worldwide. The fact that another pandemic would occur is the same – it’s happened many times over in the past, so of course it’s highly likely (or even certain) to happen again. COVID-19 is not unprecedented. Pandemics are planned for and prepared for, however the Western world who did not have to deal with any recent outbreaks have been caught unprepared. I think you’ll find countries who went through the SARS and other recent outbreaks (Japan, South Korea, etc) have taken this extremely seriously and dealt with the situation exceedingly well. The fact that it can be spread prior to symptoms appearing, and by those with very mild symptoms, makes COVID-19 far more difficult to control than the others which were only contagious once symptoms appear. I do agree however that more damage has been done than necessary. Confirmed cases on ICU support in Aus jumped from 11-12 yesterday to 16 thismorning…this could be the pointy end of the arrow starting to appear.

HOWEVER.

Climate change is a different beast altogether. There is conjecture about how much is happening now (assuming “climate change” to mean anthropomorphic impacts on various components of the climate system globally). It’s a slow burn, there are no immediate, fast changes like COVID-19. The horrific, terrifying predictions are a product of incomplete, unverified, unvalidated models which do not model earth’s physical processes at all well, fed with overinflated estimates of emissions that in some cases are not even physically possible – that is to say, the worst “projections” of climate change are so exceedingly unlikely to ever occur they may as well be impossible. The unprecedented nature of the projections, particularly the catastrophic top-end ones, cannot be compared to a rapidly-evolving, physically known pandemic which was predictable and planned for.

Some experts in one field being right about one thing (that has happened before and was always going to be repeated, yet as you say there was still conjecture and a lack of understanding of this basic fact) does NOT by any stretch of the imagination mean that all ‘experts’ in all fields must be right about everything, all of the time. Particularly when you have a field projecting unprecedented things far into the future with very little actual physical evidence in support of the claims. “Rising body counts” proven to be victims of this virus is vastly different to a meandering but slowly increasing global average temperature of which there is heavy conjecture about the cause.
I truly appreciate your detailed and articulate response. I agree with a lot of what you said, especially about just because experts in one field is correct does not mean they all are in every field.

My whole argument obviously hinges on what side of the debate you stand on, and in my opinion I have seen enough evidence to be persuaded that there is an issue, to what extent will remain to be seen. Much like covid 19 many of the more pessimistic models and predictions do not look as though they will eventuate, that does not however mean that the less severe reality is not still of great concern. This is where the two issues are also comparable in my opinion.
 

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