How much can be read into the first 4 rounds?

[Big Pete]

Is it just me, or does everyone seem overly-eager to draw conclusions on the competition especially early this season? Clearly, it's a trend that's existed for plenty of seasons but the expression rome wasn't built in a day no longer seems to apply in the NRL and it seems like fans have a fair idea of who's going to win this season only a month or so into the competition.

Now, this isn't a thread to discuss the behavioral pattern of the fans (how boring would that be?), rather it's a thread to see whether there's any basis for such bold predictions and for members to take a stab at predicting who are early season pretenders and who will rise?

What I'm going to do is draw up the past five top 8 rankings (including this years) and see if any conclusions can be drawn.

2013
1. Melbourne
2. South Sydney
3. Manly
4. Gold Coast
5. Newcastle
6. Sydney
7. Cronulla
8. Wests

2012
1. Melbourne (Premiers)
2. Canterbury-Bankstown (Runners Up)
3. Brisbane (8th)
4. St. George Illawarra (9th)
5. Penrith (15th)
6. Warriors (14th)
7. Canberra (6th)
8. North Queensland (5th)

2011
1. Brisbane (3rd)
2. Melbourne (Minor Premiers)
3. St. George Illawarra (4th)
4. Canterbury-Bankstown (9th)
5. Newcastle (8th)
6. North Queensland (7th)
7. Sydney (11th)
8. Manly (Premiers)

2010
1. St. George Illawarra (Premiers)
2. Wests (3rd)
3. Gold Coast (4th)
4. Sydney (Runners Up)
5. Warriors (5th)
6. Manly (8th)
7. Souths (9th)
8. Panthers (2nd)

*Didn't include Melbourne who would later be stripped of all their points

2009
1. Souths (10th)
2. Gold Coast (3rd)
3. St. George Illwarra (Minor Premiers)
4. Brisbane (6th)
5. Bulldogs (2nd)
6. Panthers (11th)
7. Newcastle (7th)
8. Melbourne* (Premiers)

Couple of interesting points.

* At worst, 3 teams who were in the 8 at this stage dropped out.
* The premiers always featured in the 8

I suppose the question becomes, how many teams do you see dropping out of the 8? Who fills their void?

Are the premiers in the top 8 as we speak?

 

[Porthoz]

You're absolutely right. It's too soon to say anything, and if anything today's result by the chooks puts last week's Broncos result in a different perspective.

Of the current top 8, I'd say Melbourne, Manly and Souths will be thereabouts. Newcastle looks likely as do the tits, but that's pretty much it.

We're as much of a chance of a top 4 as anyone else beyond the three I mentioned, but anything can happen in the NRL, and you only need an injury to a DCE, Smith or Inglis to suddenly change things again.

 

[broncos4life]

You're absolutely right. It's too soon to say anything, and if anything today's result by the chooks puts last week's Broncos result in a different perspective.

Of the current top 8, I'd say Melbourne, Manly and Souths will be thereabouts. Newcastle looks likely as do the tits, but that's pretty much it.

We're as much of a chance of a top 4 as anyone else beyond the three I mentioned, but anything can happen in the NRL, and you only need an injury to a DCE, Smith or Inglis to suddenly change things again.

Completely agree

 

[vertigo]

Surely the Cowboys come good, with their roster there's no excuse.

 

[broncos4life]

Surely the Cowboys come good, with their roster there's no excuse.

If you want a laugh check out their forum at the moment. F*** I thought we were bad here after the roosters game, it's the apocalypse over there. "Sack thurston, sack Bowen, sack Scott, sack the coach, sack the mascot" lol it's great stuff

 

[Big Pete]

I was actually surprised by the findings. I might look back but if anything it seems like early season form for the most part has carried across 26 rounds with only 2 or 3 dropping out.

I can only see two teams dropping out this year in Wests and the Gold Coast.

Titans could end up being the bolters of 2013 but I just wonder how long their young halves can keep delivering and whether or not their pack will be able to stand up in the pointy end of the season. I reckon they'll finish just outside the 8.

Wests, well they're only in the 8 now because they beat Parramatta and Penrith. I reckon they'll finish well behind the pack and their position is going to look mighty weird by September.

I've got the Bulldogs penciled in as one of the big bolters. They were always going to start slow with Barba out but with him and Pritchard back, Kasiano and Graham on their way, I can see them stamping themselves as one of the contenders come September.

The other spot will be between the Broncos and Cowboys IMO. Cowboys on paper should take it, but their culture and ageing squad may have their say. Brisbane look to be having one of 'those' seasons but as history has shown you can barely afford to write them off as finals contenders.

 

[Porthoz]

I don't think that Cronulla and/or Roosters are a certainty or even close to that either.

I wouldn't be suprised to see both Cows and Broncos make it as well as the dogs and the current top 5.

 

[Coxy]

I can't see the sharks making the 8. Especially once they lose all their players.

Too early to judge much beyond knowing storm, manly, souths and probably the bulldogs will be there when the whips are cracking again.

And I think it's safe at this stage to write off Parramatta, panthers and warriors. So that leaves 9 teams competing for 4 spots in the 8.

 

[Broncoman]

The only sides that are garunteed a finals spot in my view are Melbourne, Manly, Souths and Canterbury (they will be a force once they get back to full strength).

I can see Cronulla (if the drugs scandal has minimal interference), Rooosters, NQLD (have to come good eventually), Brisbane, Newcastle, Gold Coast and Wests making the finals. Pretty open competition this year.

 

[Big Pete]

Why Wests Bman?

There's only a handful of players I'd be willing to persist with at the Tigers. I'd honestly look into dropping at least ten players.

 

[Broncoman]

They always have a good run at some point during the year and seem to perform positively against sides outside the 8. If they do make the finals they would only just slip in by the skin of their teeth though.

 

[Mr Fourex]

Teams are all over the shop at the moment. My tipping is up the shit!!

1. Melbourne
2. Souths
3. Manly

I guess there are excuses for the Bulldogs, but at the end of the day they're below us at the moment.

Titans looking good......I think we can do them this week end.

Roosters are starting to click with their cheque book team........probably only going to get better as long as Maloney stays fit. SBW gets better with every game.

Cowboys the big losers right now.....

 

[Coxy]

Cowboys massive underachievers

 

[Bucking Beads]

I'm still backing the cowboys to get it done.

 

[Alec]

Cowboys and Faders have both been pretty bad, but on paper they should be right up there. It's probably too early to call for some teams, but not for others.

 

[Mr Fourex]

Cowboys and Faders have both been pretty bad, but on paper they should be right up there. It's probably too early to call for some teams, but not for others.

Yup ......not too early for this

:loool:

 

[Son Edo]

Can't tell if that spoon is wooden or plastic.