Melbouorne Cup Thread (2008)

[The Brizz]

I know you main horse racing fella's on here have an elitist group so haven't bothered posting about the spring carnival yet. Have had a pretty average carnival with a midfield in the Caufield on Boundless, 3rd in the Cox on Samantha Miss, a s##t ride not giving Littorio a chance for about 5th in the McKinnon and lost a bundle on Whobegotyou for second yesterday in the Derby (although I had won plenty on it before then).

Now just wondering what people's tips are for the cup at the minute. I really like Septimus especially after they drew it in the middle right next to its stablemate Alesandro Volta, should be able to "pace make" and get away with it in that situation. From the races I have seen and even in a slow run St Leger he seems like a superior horse to the other raiders. Mad Rush is also a danger with Oli and Purple Moon'esque Caufield Cup form and I am also throwing in Nom Du Jeuand Bauer. Hmmmm.

 

[ningnangnong]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Picked Nom Du Jeu in the Caulfield.

Picked Zipping and Maldivian in the Cox Plate.

Had no success yesterday.

Not passing on my Melbourne Cup tips, because if i do, they won't run well. [icon_razz1

 

[Hatchy]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Have chosen Ice Chariot in the family sweep. But knowing my luck, he'll run last. My horse has run last for the past 3 yrs, but I hope my guess is wrong

 

[Jeza23]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I dont even know who is in the cup this year. I dont know if the field has been publicised much, either that or I am not watching the news enough!

 

[Jeba]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I backed Cest Le Guerre a few weeks ago and am very happy with that. Maybe just a shower or two of rain needed and I'll be very confident. I'll stick a preview up here tonight.

 

[ningnangnong]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I backed Cest Le Guerre a few weeks ago and am very happy with that. Maybe just a shower or two of rain needed and I'll be very confident. I'll stick a preview up here tonight.

Let me into the gambling forum!!! [icon_razz1

LXG reppin.

 

[pennywisealfie]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

go the horse that gets whipped the least. fucking jockey assholes.

 

[The Brizz]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I backed Cest Le Guerre a few weeks ago and am very happy with that. Maybe just a shower or two of rain needed and I'll be very confident. I'll stick a preview up here tonight.

Let me into the gambling forum!!! [icon_razz1

LXG reppin.

We aren't cool enough Ning [icon_frown

 

[ningnangnong]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I backed Cest Le Guerre a few weeks ago and am very happy with that. Maybe just a shower or two of rain needed and I'll be very confident. I'll stick a preview up here tonight.

Let me into the gambling forum!!! [icon_razz1

LXG reppin.

We aren't cool enough Ning [icon_frown

:cry: :cry: :cry:

 

[mick]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Like Jeb, I really really like the look of C'est la Guerre and will be even more confident if the ground is a little soft.

Zipping has amazing form in the Cup too, and it's prep has been great to be there or thereabouts again this year. Never dismiss, but I'm not sure it will ever win the MC :cry:

Septimus is undoubtedly classy, but not going to have a bar of it here. Particularly not at $4.50. Seems to be a ridiculously priced overseas favourite that finishes around 9th every year, and I can see that syndrome hitting here. That and I'll never ever take those odds on this race for a horse which doesn't have form in Australia.

Didn't initially mind the look of Honolulu, but the barrier among other things have thrown up a fairly large question mark there IMO. Can't see Barbaricus doing much after an amazing run yesterday, ditto Moatize, and I'm prepared to leave Yellowstone out after a shocking prep with injuries etc.

Mad Rush and Nom De Jou right in this one.

So I'm going to go out on a limb and keep Mad Rush, Nom De Jou, C'est La Guerre and Zipping as my top four picks to take out the Cup this year, but there's one or two more roughies that I am still deciding on...

 

[The Brizz]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Mad Rush and Nom Du Jeu are the 2 I am most worried about as they have that "flashing late run" under there belt recently over the 2400m. I just think Septimus especially with its frontrunning stablemate next door can get forward control the tempo and let Septimus run a race on their terms, and from what I have seen of him he is easily the class of the raiders.

 

[Jeba]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Mad Rush and Nom Du Jeu are the 2 I am most worried about as they have that "flashing late run" under there belt recently over the 2400m. I just think Septimus especially with its frontrunning stablemate next door can get forward control the tempo and let Septimus run a race on their terms, and from what I have seen of him he is easily the class of the raiders.

Not allowed to do that in Australia [icon_wink

I dunno about Septimus to be honest. To me he just looks like one of those grinding English stayers, I can't really see a good turn of foot from him, and you can't win a Melbourne Cup without that. I've got a couple of Europeans before him...

 

[The Brizz]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

You didn't see the St Leger if you don't think he has a turn of foot, he absolutely destroyed them with a furlong to go and you can do that in Australia if your stable mate is next to you and likes to lead in races anyway. Plus no steward would take a Melbourne Cup off someone because there stable mate led and made the race run at a quick tempo. Mad Rush has never won beyond 2400 and his best win is in a class 3 race, I think Mad Rush is the biggest threat and I get the feeling it won't get the distance anywhere near aswell as Septimus.

 

[Beachy]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

You didn't see the St Leger if you don't think he has a turn of foot, he absolutely destroyed them with a furlong to go and you can do that in Australia if your stable mate is next to you and likes to lead in races anyway.

Realistically though, the rest of that St Leger field was made up of a bunch of horses who couldn't win a maiden at Broken Hill

 

[Russo]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

I had sneaky few bucks on C'est la Guerre a month ago so need to put anymore there, but the 2 I'll be backing are Mad Rush and Nom De Jou like a few others here.

But see a few other good ones I like on the card, heaps better races to bet in than the Cup IMHO

 

[Jeba]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

You didn't see the St Leger if you don't think he has a turn of foot, he absolutely destroyed them with a furlong to go and you can do that in Australia if your stable mate is next to you and likes to lead in races anyway.

Realistically though, the rest of that St Leger field was made up of a bunch of horses who couldn't win a maiden at Broken Hill

Exactly. The main reason he won that race so dominantly was because the rest of the field didn't run the trip. There will be a lot more pressure on him in the Cup and from what I have seen I think there are much better chances.

 

[The Brizz]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

You didn't see the St Leger if you don't think he has a turn of foot, he absolutely destroyed them with a furlong to go and you can do that in Australia if your stable mate is next to you and likes to lead in races anyway.

Realistically though, the rest of that St Leger field was made up of a bunch of horses who couldn't win a maiden at Broken Hill

The horses it beat were no dissimilar to your mid-field Melbourne Cup horses it just happened to be run at a slow rate and he murdered them on the way home. If they get enough water and run him I honestly see nothing running it down if it gets near the front at a decent tempo.

 

[Jeba]

Re: Melbouorne Cup Thread

Here is my Cup preview with a comment on every runner.

1. SEPTIMUS
Fair enough he's the best horse in Europe but the races that he runs over there are very different to a Melbourne Cup. From what I have seen from him I think he is a similar horse to Yeats, who won 3 Ascot Gold Cups in a row but failed in the Melbourne Cup, albeit on the back of a shocking ride. Like I have mentioned in this thread I just haven't seen the turn of foot from him that I think is needed. So I will pass.

2. MASTER O'REILLY
I think his run in the Caulfield Cup was good considering Vlad Duric slaughtered him by taking him back to last. He was dumb ride in the Cox Plate as well. Prior to that he ran well in the Turnbull but the handicapper has got the better of him here, and history says Caulfield Cup winners don't back up the following year in the Melbourne Cup. So I'll pass.

3. HONOLULU
Last time out at 3200m, he was beaten 20.3 lengths. He's got the outside barrier here and is another griding stayer from Europe. He's bred to be that as well and I don't think he'll have what it takes here.

4. C'EST LA GUERRE
I've been keen on this bloke since he transferred to Lloyd Williams. I think his preparation has been perfect and he should be primed for a good run here. Now if a shower of rain comes down, I think he is certainty to run in the first 4. Now they are also bringing Brett Prebble over for the ride, who I rate as one of Australiasia's best riders. So he's a definate chance on soft ground.

5. NOM DE JEU
Has form around the right horses and very impressive in the Caulfield Cup. Also one who will benefit from a shower of rain. He goes in all my bets but the inside barrier is a little bit of a concern. But if he gets any luck he should be right in the finish.

6. YELLOWSTONE
Further evidence that the St Leger field was crap - he was beaten by 54 lengths. Another European pretender. No.

7. ZIPPING
I have a real soft spot for this horse. Now if there was decent speed on in the Cox Plate he would've won it. And those who were with me on Cox Plate day know that I'm not talking out of my pocket there because I backed Maldivian. The real plus this year for Zipping is that he finally has a half decent barrier, unlike his previous 2 attempts. The softer prep this time in will help and I give him a chance.

8. MAD RUSH
Best of the Europeans. This horse has 2 real plusses - the Caulfield Cup run, and Damien Oliver. Oliver has a great relationship with the Cumani's and is riding in great form at the moment. He has drawn a perfect barrier and his Caulfield Cup run was the run of the race. He is one to include and if he does win, the chances of Francesca doing a shoot for Ralph or FHM might slightly increase.

9. ICE CHARIOT
The Queenslander and an old favourite of mine! The main reasons I can't write him off in the trifecta are Michael Rodd and the fact it has won over 3200m. He will run the distance and plenty won't. Might be speaking from my heart there though but I think he can run a huge race.

10. VIEWED
His preparation has been less than ideal and his runs have been OK but I think he is one to leave out. A wet track and Bart Cummings will help, but I wouldn't think he could finish closer than 7th or 8th.

11. LITTORIO
Everyone's written this bloke off. Up until the Caulfield Cup his form was outstanding. In the Caulfield Cup though his run was quite good because the track there doesn't suit him at all. The run yesterday wasn't too special at all but he's been screaming out for 3200m since the Derby last year. Combine that with Flemington where he runs his best races and I'll put him in my trifecta. They set him for this 365 days ago and weighted nicely too!

12. BAUER
Named after one of the great TV men!! He's a little bastard and might find a hard time getting going in the straight. However, history shows the Geelong Cup is a great form guide to the minors in the Cup so I'll include him as well.

13. BOUNDLESS
Surely she won't run the trip. Not from that barrier. She'll need every bit of the rub-off from the Sunline colours to be even the slightest of hopes.

14. GALLOPIN
Glad to see this bloke get a run but I think he's a bit out of his class here. Not a good barrier either, so I'll pass.

15. GUYNO
How the hell did this bloke get in the race? NO!!

16. ZARITA
Very classy mare and previous Group 1 winner but I don't think she can figure in the finish.

17. NEWPORT
If it pisses down rain on the track between now and Tuesday, this bloke is the best roughie in the race. Ran well in the Moonee Valley Cup last week and won the Metrop very well a couple of starts before. In career best form too. Only on a wet track though.

18. PROFOUND BEAUTY
The second best of the Europeans and has the Group 1 Glen Boss factor!! Barrier is perfect, weight is perfect and her work has been sensational. One to include in all bets.

19. RED LORD
I backed this bloke at the start of the carnival at $81. In hindsight that is massive unders and I have made a $5 donation to the TAB.

20. VAREVEES
Dunno where the hell this thing came from. Last few runs she's finished 6th, 9th and 8th. No.

21. PRIZE LADY
Gee we're making up the numbers now. Won the Auckland Cup, but unimpressivley and against some ordinary Kiwis. No.

22. ALESSANDRO VOLTA
You'd have to have plenty of money if you bring this horse halfway across the world to see it run around Flemington. Probably here as a working buddy to Septimus or something I dunno. No.

23. BARBARICUS
Best roughie in the race with Newport. Caulfield Cup run was massive and so was the McKinnon run. And he drops 8kg on that run. Will get the perfect run from barrier 3. Fancy a Lion Hunter running in a Melboure Cup and being a chance!!!! But yeh, chance.

24. MOATIZE
In career best form and well bred but lacks the class this time. Had every chance to beat Bauer in the Geelong Cup and didn't really trouble him that time, so can't have him.

THE TIP
Depends on the weather. On a wet track I really like C'est La Guerre. Think the timing is perfect for him. Mad Rush and Profound Beauty the best of the Europeans. My trifecta I will take:
1. C'est La Guerre
2. Mad Rush
3. Zipping

Include Profound Beauty, Ice Chariot, Nom De Jeu, Bauer, Littorio and Barbaricus and hope that 3 of those 9 run in the top 3 icon_thumbs_u

Hopefully though it's Lloyd Williams to run down Luca Cumani again icon_thumbs_u