Jeba
International
- Mar 4, 2008
- 6,501
- 244
Here is my preview just in case anyone wants a bet.
1. American (France) (Alain de Royer Dupre) 7yo b h
Gerald Mosse
Barrier 15 58kg
So impressive in the Moonee Valley Cup and as a result runs a deserved favourite. Carries top weight of 58kg this year so he certainly won’t find it as easy as 2010, and he will need to run just as good as that if not better to win. However, there is no doubting that he is the class horse in the race, has drawn well, has a jockey that knows him like the back of his hand and a trainer that obviously knows what type of horse to bring down under for the Melbourne Cup. The one to beat.
2. Jukebox Jury (Ireland) (Mark Johnston) 6yo g h
Neil Callan
Barrier 6 57kg
Had a look at the available replays of his overseas runs, was a tad unlucky in the Goodwood but wouldn’t have won the race, and in the St Leger he had to fight hard and eventually dead heated. But I never hold the St Leger as a good form guide to the Melbourne Cup, it seems to be a race for the grinders. The horse he dead heated with, Duncan, is not a horse that could win the Melbourne Cup. So on that basis I can’t rate him as a winning chance.
3. Dunaden (France) (Mikel Delzangles) 6yo b h
Not Notified
Barrier 13 54.5kg
Fantastic win in the Geelong Cup, and the form of that race has been sensational in the Melbourne Cup over the last decade or so in particular. Also in his favour is that the horse be heat in the Geelong Cup, Tanby, franked the form by winning the Bendigo Cup during the week. Not in his favour though, is at the moment we don’t even know who will be riding him! If Craig Williams gets to ride he is most definitely a winning hope. If he doesn’t at this point we will just have to wait and see. But regardless of who rides I’d be confident of him running a place at the very least.
4. Drunken Sailor (Ireland) (Luca Cumani) 7yo b g
Dwayne Dunn
Barrier 8 54kg
Didn’t mind his run in the Caufield Cup. He didn’t have much luck on the turn and lost a lot of momentum, but when he picked up he hit the line quite nicely. Should get a decent run from the barrier, but has a jockey on board who in my opinion is prone to making a few mistakes at important stages of a race. I do respect the trainer though, he knows what horses he needs to bring down. In saying all that, I think the best he can manage might be 6th or 7th, which will see the connections walk away with a cheque, but I think the stablemate has the edge on him, along with a few others in the race.
5. Glass Harmonium (Ireland) (Michael Moroney) 6yo g h
Ms Lisa Cropp
Barrier 23 54kg
Very impressive win in the MacKinnon, and has been racing well all spring apart from the Cox Plate where he was never a hope after going off in the gates and bombing the start. Has never run worse than second at the track either. So a few things in his favour. But against him is that he no longer has Damien Oliver on his back, and he has drawn one from the outside. I’d say he will look to go forward and I think he will just do too much work from the barrier. I also think he is a slight query at the distance. So I can’t give him a place chance.
6. Manighar (France) (Luca Cumani) 6yo g g
Damien Oliver
Barrier 21 54kg
From a Melbourne Cup perspective I thought his Caulfield Cup run was very good. Travelled perfectly during the run and came home nicely. I think he found the 2400m a bit too zippy for him and reckon 3200m suits him to the ground. Has a tricky barrier but has Oliver on his back, who is possibly the form jockey in the country at the moment. He looks a better horse than last year to my eye and I rate him a winning chance.
7. Unusual Suspect (USA) (Michael Kent) 8yo b h
Not notified
Barrier 7 54kg
A great run in the Caulfield Cup, but an absolute flop before in the Cranbourne Cup. That never sits easy with me. He is a veteran of 59 starts, for 9 wins and a further 14 placings. Not an outstanding strike rate by any means. A run like his in the Caulfield Cup would usually have you saying he would be a chance, but I would be very nervous about having any money on him. I’m prepared to leave him out.
8. Fox Hunt (Ireland) (Mark Johnston) 5yo c g
Silvestere De Sousa
Barrier 19 53.5kg
His form overseas has been good but I hate these ones that come over and run in the Cup without a lead up run in Australia. Always very hard to line up because the racing is very different over here. Have a look at the international place getters over the last 5 Cups – Delta Blues, Pop Rock, Purple Moon, Mahler, Bauer, Crime Scene, Mourilyan and Americain – out of all those only Mahler and Mourilyan didn’t have a lead up run in Australia before the Cup. So I think it is very important if you want to be a winning chance. Therefore I don’t rate Fox Hunt a winning chance and I’m prepared to say can’t run a place.
9. Lucas Cranach (Germany) (Anthony Freedman) 5yo b h
Corey Brown
Barrier 11 53.5kg
Looked a good run in the Caulfield Cup but I think he is a bit of a distance query. I know he started his run a long way out in that race but he hit the wall a bit and couldn’t get past Tullamore when they came together. Prepared to take him on.
10. Mourayan (Ireland) (Robert Hickmott) 6yo b h
Hugh Bowman
Barrier 14 53.5kg
Been racing well this prep but fair dinkum, he’s been running in the b-grade staying events since he was imported and has only won 1 of them, at listed level. Has also won 3 races out of 27. Can he win a Melbourne Cup? No, he cannot. He will go forward and probably ensure a nice gallop though which is good. But will not win.
11. Precedence (Australia) (Bart Cummings) 6yo b g
Darren Beadman
Barrier 2 53.5kg
On paper his form looks hopeless but I just cannot write off Bart in the Cup, particularly when combined with Darren Beadman. We know that this bloke can stay, and he did run pretty well in this race last year. I am just wary of him turning his form right around, because he has the trainer for it. I think he is the best roughie in the race.
12. Red Cadeaux (Great Britain) (Ed Dunlop) 6yo ch g
Michael Rodd
Barrier 16 53.5kg
Like Jukebox Jury and Fox Hunt, he is running here without a lead up run, so I can’t have him. His form reads well enough and he was unlucky in the St Leger, should’ve won it, but I can’t put my hard earned on him having not seen him race over here as yet.
13. Hawk Island (Ireland) (Chris Waller) 7yo b g
Glyn Schofield
Barrier 18 53kg
The only possible hope for this bloke is a bog track, which by reports is very unlikely. No horse has ever won the Cup from Barrier 18, and I don’t see Hawk Island making history of any sort on Tuesday.
14. Illo (Germany) (Bart Cummings) 6yo b h
Jim Cassidy
Barrier 1 53kg
Should go forward from the inside barrier and will be in the firing line. His 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup was very respectable and he has the master trainer, and a very good jockey of stayers in big races. Ticks a fair few boxes and can run a big race. Can he win? Not quite sure, but goes in all the exotics for mine.
15. Lost in the Moment (Ireland) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5yo b h
William Buick
Barrier 3 53kg
I did say earlier to avoid the overseas runners that haven’t had a run here, but sometimes there are exceptions to the rule. And when you’ve got a Godolphin horse in the race, and the Sheikh coming out for the carnival this year, that might be the exception. This bloke’s form looks pretty good and did run second in that Goodwood Cup which was a very good run. Looks the right type for mine, but I just can’t tip with confidence having not seen him here before.
16. Modun (Ireland) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5yo br g
Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier 5 53kg
As above. Just too much respect for the stable to write off. Just not confident though having not seen here before.
17. At First Sight (Ireland) (Robert Hickmott) 5yo ch h
Steven King
Barrier 10 52.5kg
Was a huge run in the Bendigo Cup after a few problems this prep. However has only ever won 1 race, a 2 year old maiden! And in the Bendigo Cup, he couldn’t beat Tanby, who couldn’t beat Dunaden in the Geelong Cup. So therefore I don’t think he can beat Dunaden, therefore I doubt he can win. Would’ve much rathered him win the Bendigo Cup to think he was a chance.
18. Moyenne Corniche (Great Britain) (Brian Ellison) 7yo ch g
Brett Prebble
Barrier 17 52kg
Was the eye-catching run in the Herbert Power but hasn’t had a run since then. I am no trainer obviously but would rather he’d have had a run between then and now, and the field he was up against in the Herbert Power was pretty ordinary. No thanks.
19. Saptapadi (Ireland) (Brian Ellison) 6yo ch g
Chris Symons
Barrier 22 52kg
I’ll strongly consider giving up the punt if this bandit wins a Melbourne Cup.
20. Shamrocker (New Zealand) (Danny O’Brien) 4yo b m
Luke Nolen
Barrier 24 52kg
She showed plenty of promise in the autumn winning the Derby and running 2nd in the Oaks on a heavy track, but she hasn’t shown anywhere near that this spring. No chance.
21. The Verminator (Australia) (Chris Waller) 5yo b g
Craig Newitt
Barrier 4 52kg
Could’ve knocked me over with a breath of wind when he won the Metrop. Will take even less than that if he wins the Cup.
22. Tullamore (New Zealand) (Gai Waterhouse) 5yo b g
Chris Munce
Barrier 12 52kg
Brisbane Cup winner, and Caulfield Cup 3rd, so obviously a talented stayer but I think he is punching above his weight in this one.
23. Niwot (Australia) (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes) 7yo b g
Dean Yendall
Barrier 9 51kg
Was a very very impressive win in the Lexus on Saturday, albeit not beating much. Has been knocking on the door a bit during the spring and looks like he may have been let in at the last minute, and is a definite light-weight hope.
24. Older Than Time (Australia) (Gai Waterhouse) 5yo b m
Don’t know how she got a start. No chance.
THE TIP
So in racebook order I have these down as chances.
Americain
Dunaden
Manighar
Precedence
Illo
Lost in the Moment
Moden
Niwot
I have rounded the field down to 8. I know that doesn’t help much but we will break that down a bit further.
The French horses are obviously the ones to beat. They’ve been the eye catchers in the lead up races. The Godolphin runners have me nervous, they aren’t the most recognisable stable in the world for nothing.
Niwot leads the charge for the Aussies, Precedence and Illo have the Bart factor which can’t be underestimated. Manighar there because of respect for the trainer.
I think Americain will go back to back. He is a magnificent horse and relishes the Aussie style of racing. In second I think it will be Dunaden – France going 1-2 ala Japan in 2006. Just think they are all class.
Throw a blanket over the rest for 3rd.
1. American (France) (Alain de Royer Dupre) 7yo b h
Gerald Mosse
Barrier 15 58kg
So impressive in the Moonee Valley Cup and as a result runs a deserved favourite. Carries top weight of 58kg this year so he certainly won’t find it as easy as 2010, and he will need to run just as good as that if not better to win. However, there is no doubting that he is the class horse in the race, has drawn well, has a jockey that knows him like the back of his hand and a trainer that obviously knows what type of horse to bring down under for the Melbourne Cup. The one to beat.
2. Jukebox Jury (Ireland) (Mark Johnston) 6yo g h
Neil Callan
Barrier 6 57kg
Had a look at the available replays of his overseas runs, was a tad unlucky in the Goodwood but wouldn’t have won the race, and in the St Leger he had to fight hard and eventually dead heated. But I never hold the St Leger as a good form guide to the Melbourne Cup, it seems to be a race for the grinders. The horse he dead heated with, Duncan, is not a horse that could win the Melbourne Cup. So on that basis I can’t rate him as a winning chance.
3. Dunaden (France) (Mikel Delzangles) 6yo b h
Not Notified
Barrier 13 54.5kg
Fantastic win in the Geelong Cup, and the form of that race has been sensational in the Melbourne Cup over the last decade or so in particular. Also in his favour is that the horse be heat in the Geelong Cup, Tanby, franked the form by winning the Bendigo Cup during the week. Not in his favour though, is at the moment we don’t even know who will be riding him! If Craig Williams gets to ride he is most definitely a winning hope. If he doesn’t at this point we will just have to wait and see. But regardless of who rides I’d be confident of him running a place at the very least.
4. Drunken Sailor (Ireland) (Luca Cumani) 7yo b g
Dwayne Dunn
Barrier 8 54kg
Didn’t mind his run in the Caufield Cup. He didn’t have much luck on the turn and lost a lot of momentum, but when he picked up he hit the line quite nicely. Should get a decent run from the barrier, but has a jockey on board who in my opinion is prone to making a few mistakes at important stages of a race. I do respect the trainer though, he knows what horses he needs to bring down. In saying all that, I think the best he can manage might be 6th or 7th, which will see the connections walk away with a cheque, but I think the stablemate has the edge on him, along with a few others in the race.
5. Glass Harmonium (Ireland) (Michael Moroney) 6yo g h
Ms Lisa Cropp
Barrier 23 54kg
Very impressive win in the MacKinnon, and has been racing well all spring apart from the Cox Plate where he was never a hope after going off in the gates and bombing the start. Has never run worse than second at the track either. So a few things in his favour. But against him is that he no longer has Damien Oliver on his back, and he has drawn one from the outside. I’d say he will look to go forward and I think he will just do too much work from the barrier. I also think he is a slight query at the distance. So I can’t give him a place chance.
6. Manighar (France) (Luca Cumani) 6yo g g
Damien Oliver
Barrier 21 54kg
From a Melbourne Cup perspective I thought his Caulfield Cup run was very good. Travelled perfectly during the run and came home nicely. I think he found the 2400m a bit too zippy for him and reckon 3200m suits him to the ground. Has a tricky barrier but has Oliver on his back, who is possibly the form jockey in the country at the moment. He looks a better horse than last year to my eye and I rate him a winning chance.
7. Unusual Suspect (USA) (Michael Kent) 8yo b h
Not notified
Barrier 7 54kg
A great run in the Caulfield Cup, but an absolute flop before in the Cranbourne Cup. That never sits easy with me. He is a veteran of 59 starts, for 9 wins and a further 14 placings. Not an outstanding strike rate by any means. A run like his in the Caulfield Cup would usually have you saying he would be a chance, but I would be very nervous about having any money on him. I’m prepared to leave him out.
8. Fox Hunt (Ireland) (Mark Johnston) 5yo c g
Silvestere De Sousa
Barrier 19 53.5kg
His form overseas has been good but I hate these ones that come over and run in the Cup without a lead up run in Australia. Always very hard to line up because the racing is very different over here. Have a look at the international place getters over the last 5 Cups – Delta Blues, Pop Rock, Purple Moon, Mahler, Bauer, Crime Scene, Mourilyan and Americain – out of all those only Mahler and Mourilyan didn’t have a lead up run in Australia before the Cup. So I think it is very important if you want to be a winning chance. Therefore I don’t rate Fox Hunt a winning chance and I’m prepared to say can’t run a place.
9. Lucas Cranach (Germany) (Anthony Freedman) 5yo b h
Corey Brown
Barrier 11 53.5kg
Looked a good run in the Caulfield Cup but I think he is a bit of a distance query. I know he started his run a long way out in that race but he hit the wall a bit and couldn’t get past Tullamore when they came together. Prepared to take him on.
10. Mourayan (Ireland) (Robert Hickmott) 6yo b h
Hugh Bowman
Barrier 14 53.5kg
Been racing well this prep but fair dinkum, he’s been running in the b-grade staying events since he was imported and has only won 1 of them, at listed level. Has also won 3 races out of 27. Can he win a Melbourne Cup? No, he cannot. He will go forward and probably ensure a nice gallop though which is good. But will not win.
11. Precedence (Australia) (Bart Cummings) 6yo b g
Darren Beadman
Barrier 2 53.5kg
On paper his form looks hopeless but I just cannot write off Bart in the Cup, particularly when combined with Darren Beadman. We know that this bloke can stay, and he did run pretty well in this race last year. I am just wary of him turning his form right around, because he has the trainer for it. I think he is the best roughie in the race.
12. Red Cadeaux (Great Britain) (Ed Dunlop) 6yo ch g
Michael Rodd
Barrier 16 53.5kg
Like Jukebox Jury and Fox Hunt, he is running here without a lead up run, so I can’t have him. His form reads well enough and he was unlucky in the St Leger, should’ve won it, but I can’t put my hard earned on him having not seen him race over here as yet.
13. Hawk Island (Ireland) (Chris Waller) 7yo b g
Glyn Schofield
Barrier 18 53kg
The only possible hope for this bloke is a bog track, which by reports is very unlikely. No horse has ever won the Cup from Barrier 18, and I don’t see Hawk Island making history of any sort on Tuesday.
14. Illo (Germany) (Bart Cummings) 6yo b h
Jim Cassidy
Barrier 1 53kg
Should go forward from the inside barrier and will be in the firing line. His 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup was very respectable and he has the master trainer, and a very good jockey of stayers in big races. Ticks a fair few boxes and can run a big race. Can he win? Not quite sure, but goes in all the exotics for mine.
15. Lost in the Moment (Ireland) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5yo b h
William Buick
Barrier 3 53kg
I did say earlier to avoid the overseas runners that haven’t had a run here, but sometimes there are exceptions to the rule. And when you’ve got a Godolphin horse in the race, and the Sheikh coming out for the carnival this year, that might be the exception. This bloke’s form looks pretty good and did run second in that Goodwood Cup which was a very good run. Looks the right type for mine, but I just can’t tip with confidence having not seen him here before.
16. Modun (Ireland) (Saeed Bin Suroor) 5yo br g
Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier 5 53kg
As above. Just too much respect for the stable to write off. Just not confident though having not seen here before.
17. At First Sight (Ireland) (Robert Hickmott) 5yo ch h
Steven King
Barrier 10 52.5kg
Was a huge run in the Bendigo Cup after a few problems this prep. However has only ever won 1 race, a 2 year old maiden! And in the Bendigo Cup, he couldn’t beat Tanby, who couldn’t beat Dunaden in the Geelong Cup. So therefore I don’t think he can beat Dunaden, therefore I doubt he can win. Would’ve much rathered him win the Bendigo Cup to think he was a chance.
18. Moyenne Corniche (Great Britain) (Brian Ellison) 7yo ch g
Brett Prebble
Barrier 17 52kg
Was the eye-catching run in the Herbert Power but hasn’t had a run since then. I am no trainer obviously but would rather he’d have had a run between then and now, and the field he was up against in the Herbert Power was pretty ordinary. No thanks.
19. Saptapadi (Ireland) (Brian Ellison) 6yo ch g
Chris Symons
Barrier 22 52kg
I’ll strongly consider giving up the punt if this bandit wins a Melbourne Cup.
20. Shamrocker (New Zealand) (Danny O’Brien) 4yo b m
Luke Nolen
Barrier 24 52kg
She showed plenty of promise in the autumn winning the Derby and running 2nd in the Oaks on a heavy track, but she hasn’t shown anywhere near that this spring. No chance.
21. The Verminator (Australia) (Chris Waller) 5yo b g
Craig Newitt
Barrier 4 52kg
Could’ve knocked me over with a breath of wind when he won the Metrop. Will take even less than that if he wins the Cup.
22. Tullamore (New Zealand) (Gai Waterhouse) 5yo b g
Chris Munce
Barrier 12 52kg
Brisbane Cup winner, and Caulfield Cup 3rd, so obviously a talented stayer but I think he is punching above his weight in this one.
23. Niwot (Australia) (Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes) 7yo b g
Dean Yendall
Barrier 9 51kg
Was a very very impressive win in the Lexus on Saturday, albeit not beating much. Has been knocking on the door a bit during the spring and looks like he may have been let in at the last minute, and is a definite light-weight hope.
24. Older Than Time (Australia) (Gai Waterhouse) 5yo b m
Don’t know how she got a start. No chance.
THE TIP
So in racebook order I have these down as chances.
Americain
Dunaden
Manighar
Precedence
Illo
Lost in the Moment
Moden
Niwot
I have rounded the field down to 8. I know that doesn’t help much but we will break that down a bit further.
The French horses are obviously the ones to beat. They’ve been the eye catchers in the lead up races. The Godolphin runners have me nervous, they aren’t the most recognisable stable in the world for nothing.
Niwot leads the charge for the Aussies, Precedence and Illo have the Bart factor which can’t be underestimated. Manighar there because of respect for the trainer.
I think Americain will go back to back. He is a magnificent horse and relishes the Aussie style of racing. In second I think it will be Dunaden – France going 1-2 ala Japan in 2006. Just think they are all class.
Throw a blanket over the rest for 3rd.
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