NRL 2022 Finals Week 3 Discussion

[Big Pete]

North Queensland Cowboys vs. Parramatta Eels
Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Friday 23 September 2022
Kick Off: 7:50pm

NORTH QLD COWBOYS

1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Reuben Cotter 11. Tom Gilbert 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Jason Taumalolo

14. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 15. Luciano Leilua 16. Coen Hess 17. Griffin Neame

18. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 19. Thomas Chester 20. Jake Granville 21. Brendan Elliot 22. Ben Hampton

PARRAMATTA EELS

1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 5. Waqa Blake 19. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali'i 13. Ryan Matterson

14. Bryce Cartwright 15. Jakob Arthur 16. Oregon Kaufusi 17. Marata Niukore

4. Tom Opacic 18. Makahesi Makatoa 20. Nathan Brown 21. Ofahiki Ogden 22. Ky Rodwell

Penrith Panthers vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs
BlueBet Stadium, Saturday 24 September 2022
Kick Off: 7:50pm

PENRITH PANTHERS

1. Dylan Edwards 2. Charlie Staines 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To'o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo

14. Mitch Kenny 15. Scott Sorensen 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon

18. Sean O'Sullivan 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. J'maine Hopgood 21. Sunia Turuva 22. Chris Smith

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Taane Milne 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Mark Nicholls 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray

14. Kodi Nikorima 15. Hame Sele 16. Michael Chee Kam 17. Jed Cartwright

18. Davvy Moale 19. Blake Taaffe 20. Josh Mansour 21. Richard Kennar 22. Jacob Host

 

[Big Pete]

I'm going Cowboys & Panthers.

I'm far more confident with the Panthers pick. I believe they're in a league of their own at the moment and they're the best squad I've seen. Not even the Storm during their peak salary cap cheating years handled the setbacks like the Panthers have.

Even against Parramatta where they blew some early opportunities, they were still a class above and ended up winning that game so comfortably.

I'm more or less expecting the same thing. I think they'll force Walker & Ilias into error and pick up the pieces. I think they'll have a field day targeting the right-side of the Rabbits defence and get through the game comfortably.

I wonder how much Cleary's kicking game will make Mitchell work. Mitchell is an elite talent but only when he's allowed to play his way. I can see a lot of low kicks and Mitchell taking an age to play the ball to buy himself a breather and potentially earn penalties. He'll try to slow the game down, but if he can't he'll be a non-factor.

Meanwhile I'm going Cowboys based on what happened in Darwin. They shut the Eels down for the majority of the game and never allowed the Eels to play their brand of footy. I can just see the Eels being out of sync as they fail to make the inroads they're used to. Meanwhile the Cows will pick apart that edge of Blake/Sivo and score a few tries off kicks.

The only reason I'm not sold is because I thought the Cows hit a wall against the Sharks. They couldn't carry on like they used to and they did extremely well to escape out of jail against the Sharks. The Sharks over-achieved this season and don't have the combinations this Eels side does. If they can jag a few opportunities early and a couple of these Cowboys lose their heads they could really turn the tables.

I still think the Eels being found wanting is the more likely outcome, but I'm not 100% sold on the Cows just yet.

 

[BroncsFan]

I'm going Cowboys & Panthers.

I'm far more confident with the Panthers pick. I believe they're in a league of their own at the moment and they're the best squad I've seen. Not even the Storm during their peak salary cap cheating years handled the setbacks like the Panthers have.

Even against Parramatta where they blew some early opportunities, they were still a class above and ended up winning that game so comfortably.

I'm more or less expecting the same thing. I think they'll force Walker & Ilias into error and pick up the pieces. I think they'll have a field day targeting the right-side of the Rabbits defence and get through the game comfortably.

I wonder how much Cleary's kicking game will make Mitchell work. Mitchell is an elite talent but only when he's allowed to play his way. I can see a lot of low kicks and Mitchell taking an age to play the ball to buy himself a breather and potentially earn penalties. He'll try to slow the game down, but if he can't he'll be a non-factor.

Meanwhile I'm going Cowboys based on what happened in Darwin. They shut the Eels down for the majority of the game and never allowed the Eels to play their brand of footy. I can just see the Eels being out of sync as they fail to make the inroads they're used to. Meanwhile the Cows will pick apart that edge of Blake/Sivo and score a few tries off kicks.

The only reason I'm not sold is because I thought the Cows hit a wall against the Sharks. They couldn't carry on like they used to and they did extremely well to escape out of jail against the Sharks. The Sharks over-achieved this season and don't have the combinations this Eels side does. If they can jag a few opportunities early and a couple of these Cowboys lose their heads they could really turn the tables.

I still think the Eels being found wanting is the more likely outcome, but I'm not 100% sold on the Cows just yet.

For the eels to win they need to turn up like they're playing Penrith.

Youd think they would being a prelim, but they're prone to showing up and thinking it will happen with an eye on next week.

The home ground advantage that cows will have up north cannot be understated and I think it will unfortunately get them the win.

If the game was at Suncorp, as a QLD regional ground, I'd have eels as favourites, but up there with the entire crowd behind cows I think parra could succumb to the early barrage.

If cows get a try early good luck turning the momentum with the home crowd behind them.

 

[Wolfie]

Such a shame Tommy picked up that injury. He makes a big difference to their left side at Parra.

 

[Waynesaurus]

Yeah Cows and Panthers.

Cows at home have everything going for them and should win but they've also cashed in quite a bit luck over the season with a few last gasp wins, they might just be due for the footy gods to fark them over.

Panthers you would expect but the Rabbits really are peaking at the right time, I think this will be a close game.

 

[Wolfie]

For the eels to win they need to turn up like they're playing Penrith.

Youd think they would being a prelim, but they're prone to showing up and thinking it will happen with an eye on next week.

The home ground advantage that cows will have up north cannot be understated and I think it will unfortunately get them the win.

If the game was at Suncorp, as a QLD regional ground, I'd have eels as favourites, but up there with the entire crowd behind cows I think parra could succumb to the early barrage.

If cows get a try early good luck turning the momentum with the home crowd behind them.

Eels are good enough to win the comp if the turn up. Their best is good enough but as you say they have this habit of just not turning up.

 

[BroncsFan]

Eels are good enough to win the comp if the turn up. Their best is good enough but as you say they have this habit of just not turning up.

I feel like cows will start ridiculously fast and it will be whether parra can survive the first 20-30mins unscathed or if they collapse and are down 20-0 after 20mins.

Gilbert showed how he intends to play based on the start of the sharks game... and cows entire game plan appears to revolve around a conservative high completion rate and having a high speed high impact defence, that leads to errors and gives them opportunities.... and gift penalties from the ref so they never have to work out of yardage.

I think parra need to be willing to get into the grind with cows for the first 20-30mins and wait to see if the occasion combined with cows fast linespeed tires them out too quickly.

However, I get the feeling that parra will think cows are beneath them and will think turning up is enough to get the job done... even though cows put them to the sword earlier in the year at Darwin.

 

[Fernando]

Yeah Cowboys and Panthers. Payten is a gun and he would have loved 2 weeks off to have them primed for the Eels.

 

[Harry Sack]

I genuinely can't pick it tbh. Cows should win after the rest they've had, but will they go in overconfident? Parra have a serious point to prove as well.

Panthers should also win against Souths but we've heard pretty much since the last GF that if Latrell plays blah blah blah...they'll be up for this big time. I can actually see it getting pretty spiteful. Whoever wins this one will be pretty bruised up IMO

 

[Financeguy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Souths get up this weekend and i think Cows will ambush Parra early to keep a comfortable distance during the match. All teams have reasons they can win though so really looking forward to the 2 games.

As a neutral a Souths v Cows GF would be the least interesting for me personally so hoping for Souths/Penrith vs. Parra.

 

[Foordy]

Eels will choke

Panthers v Cowboys GF

 

[Harry Sack]

Johnston out, Kennar in.

 

[JayPee]

Money absolutely steaming in for the Cowboys

 

[Browny]

What does the conspiracy train say?

 

[Morkel]

What does the conspiracy train say?

Conspiracy Train will expect the norm from the refs when it comes to the Panthers. Just a repeat of last year's grand final. They'll be off-side, or leave early on every ruck they defend. They will suffocate the Rabbitohs, Lattrell will get frustrated and either make 3 critical errors or get himself sent off.

Not sure the exact details of the Cows Eels game, but the expectation is that the Cow's "luck" will run out. Whether they jump to a quick lead but are then pumped, or are just on the back foot from the whistle, who knows. But their easy ref-assisted exit-sets will dry up, and they just won't have the same field position they are used to (and the opposition won't be as fatigued). King Gutho to pelvic thrust in the Cowboys' faces as he sets up the match-winning try with a 20-metre wide, 8 metre forward pass that the touch judges won't see and the commentators will shoot their wads over.

 

[Accept]

Eels will choke

Panthers v Cowboys GF

Cowboys are favourites and are playing at home and also finished higher in the standings and have had two weeks rest. An Eels loss wouldn't be considered a "choke".

 

[Bull Shark]

Johnston out, Kennar in.

No team with Richie Kennar in it is winning an NRL prelim final, let alone one against this current Penrith lot..

 

[Sproj]

I actually forgot there were games on. Only realised once I looked up what Q Cup games were on.