Pick Kevvie's round one team with odds

McHunt

State of Origin Rep
Aug 25, 2018
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In the absence of any news, I'd like see what everyone thinks will be the first team of the season. This one's not about who you would pick, but who you think Kevvie will pick. We don't have a lot to work with from training spies so mine is mostly based on a continuation of last season with a couple of new faces.

List your team, and rate your confidence level on each position with a percentage. For the bench, just rank them in order. Don't worry if you're heavy in one position. For example, there's going to be at least one prop on the bench, probably two, but maybe not three. But because you know there'll be two props, the likelihood of one of the props being on the bench is still higher than a centre. The chance of Walters OR Paix being on the bench is higher than Mead, but the chance of Mead being on the bench is higher than Walters AND Paix together. If you get what I mean.

Here's mine:

1. Niu(80%), Cobbo (20%)
2. Oates (100%)
3. Staggs (100%)
4. Farnworth (70%), Cobbo (30%) - Farnworth on seniority only. I would pick Cobbo.
5. Cobbo (70%), Farnworth (30%) - as above.
6. Kelly (50%), Gamble (45%), Walters (5%)
7. Reynolds (100%)
8. Carrigan (100%)
9. Turpin (100%)
10. Haas (100%)
11. Capewell (100%)
12. Riki (90%), Robati (10%)
13. Hetherington (100%)

Bench (in order of likelihood)
My guess is two props, one second row, and one utility back.

James
Kennedy
(Flegler is suspended)

Robati

Walters
Gamble
Paix
Kelly

Palasia
Piakura

Lee
Mead
Isaako

For me, the big question is Gamble or Kelly at 6, but also whether the other would work on the bench if they miss out. I can picture Gamble as a utility, but not really Kelly. If Kelly is at 6, then maybe Walters will pip Gamble on the bench. But how do you leave out Tyson?

The next question is who goes to the wing: Cobbo or Farnworth. Received wisdom is Cobbo will be fullback by the end of the season. If so, why not just put him there now? Or send him back to play fullback in the ISC until he's ready. But, then again, why would you drop him when you have a wing spot to fill? It will be a tough question for Kevvie. I'm hoping he will send Farnworth to the wing and keep Cobbo at centre. But I'm betting against it.
 

simplythebest

QCup Player
May 22, 2014
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1
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Not what I think it should be, but what I think Kevvie will pick.

1. Niu 50%, Cobbo 50%
2. Oates 100%
3. Staggs 100%
4. Farnworth 50%, Cobbo 50%
5. Farnworth 50%, Lee 50%
6. Gamble 50% Kelly 50%
7. Reynolds (c) 100%
8. James 50% Carrigan 50%
9. Turpin 100%
10. Haas 100%
11. Riki 100%
12. Capewell 100%
13. Carrigan 50% Hetherington 50%

14. Paix 50% Walters 50%
15. James 50% Hetherington 50%
16. Robati
17. Piakura

I'd love to see Cobbo thrown the #1 from round one, but I have a feeling it will be Niu.

I think Lee is a chance purely for experience and a big body coming out of our own end, but I think the right wing/left centre position really depends on whether Cobbo plays fullback or not.

Barring injury, I don't think Mam is a realistic chance of starting the season at 6 after the way Kelly and Gamble finished last season. For the first time in a long time, we have the luxury of a young half actually being able to play some Q Cup and earn his stripes without being thrown in the deep end.

Number 8, 13 and one bench spot is a toss up between James, Carrigan and Hetherington. I think Carrigan is a certain starter, if it's at prop then Kobe will play 13 with Ryan on the bench. If Ryan plays 8, then Carrigan will be in 13 (yuck) with Kobe off the bench.

14 will be a toss up between Paix and Billy. If Kelly or Gamble miss out, I can't see them being the utility.

With Flegler being suspended, the last two bench spots will be a toss up of whoever performs best in the trials, I've put TC and Piakura purely on last years performances.
 

theshed

Just a Game
Aug 28, 2010
Threads
48
9,125
19,354
In the absence of any news, I'd like see what everyone thinks will be the first team of the season. This one's not about who you would pick, but who you think Kevvie will pick. We don't have a lot to work with from training spies so mine is mostly based on a continuation of last season with a couple of new faces.

List your team, and rate your confidence level on each position with a percentage. For the bench, just rank them in order. Don't worry if you're heavy in one position. For example, there's going to be at least one prop on the bench, probably two, but maybe not three. But because you know there'll be two props, the likelihood of one of the props being on the bench is still higher than a centre. The chance of Walters OR Paix being on the bench is higher than Mead, but the chance of Mead being on the bench is higher than Walters AND Paix together. If you get what I mean.

Here's mine:

1. Niu(80%), Cobbo (20%)
2. Oates (100%)
3. Staggs (100%)
4. Farnworth (70%), Cobbo (30%) - Farnworth on seniority only. I would pick Cobbo.
5. Cobbo (70%), Farnworth (30%) - as above.
6. Kelly (50%), Gamble (45%), Walters (5%)
7. Reynolds (100%)
8. Carrigan (100%)
9. Turpin (100%)
10. Haas (100%)
11. Capewell (100%)
12. Riki (90%), Robati (10%)
13. Hetherington (100%)

Bench (in order of likelihood)
My guess is two props, one second row, and one utility back.

James
Kennedy
(Flegler is suspended)

Robati

Walters
Gamble
Paix
Kelly

Palasia
Piakura

Lee
Mead
Isaako

For me, the big question is Gamble or Kelly at 6, but also whether the other would work on the bench if they miss out. I can picture Gamble as a utility, but not really Kelly. If Kelly is at 6, then maybe Walters will pip Gamble on the bench. But how do you leave out Tyson?

The next question is who goes to the wing: Cobbo or Farnworth. Received wisdom is Cobbo will be fullback by the end of the season. If so, why not just put him there now? Or send him back to play fullback in the ISC until he's ready. But, then again, why would you drop him when you have a wing spot to fill? It will be a tough question for Kevvie. I'm hoping he will send Farnworth to the wing and keep Cobbo at centre. But I'm betting against it.

I think you’re very close except (unfortunately) I think Walters is closer to the other two 6’s than youve mentioned.

Gamble 40
Kelly 40
Walters 20

I also think Paix is the most likely utility though Walters would also be close on that one too.

I know you said round 1 and that Flegler is suspended but at full strength I think Carrigan is worryingly higher odds of being lock. If the round 1 team was full strength I would put Carrigan at lock @ 75% in Kev’s mind.
 

BroncsFan

State of Origin Captain
Jul 28, 2016
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1. Tesi $1.50 / Cobbo $2.50
2. Oates $1.20
3. Herbie $1.50 / Brenko $2.50
4. Staggs $1.01
5. Cobbo $1.80 / Herbie $2.10 / Pereira $2.50 / Isaako $3.50
6. Gamble $1.75 / Kelly $2.10 / Mam $3.00 / Billy $4.50
7. Reyno $1.01
8. Haas $1.01
9. Turpin $1.10 / Paix $2.50
10. Flegler $1.50 (unless suspended??) / Pat $2.10 / James $2.10
11. Capewell $1.01
12. Riki $1.80 / TC $2.10
13. Kobe $1.50 / Pat $1.80

14. Billy $1.80 / Paix $2.00
15. Pat $1.01 (bench spot at worst... lower odds for starting side due to injury comeback and rewarding previous starters)

16. James / Kennedy / Willison / [insert name here] $1.50
17. [Insert name here] / Piakura / 🤷‍♂️
 

Kimlo

International Captain
Senior Staff
Apr 26, 2008
Threads
352
29,173
22,708
1. Tesi Niu (100%)
2. Oates (100%)
3. Staggs (101%)
4. Farnworth (100%)
5. Cobbo (100%)
6. Gamble (100%)
7. Reynolds (101%)
8. Haas (101%)
9. Turpin (100%)
10. Flegler (100%)
11. Riki (100%)
12. Capewell (101%)
13. Carrigan (100%)

14. Paix/Walters (50/50%)
15. Ryan James (100%)
16. Piakura (100%)
17. Somebody in the top 30 (100%)
 

Sproj

International Captain
Forum Staff
Sep 6, 2013
Threads
254
31,751
32,524
I reckon we might see one or two 'bolters'.

1. Niu
2. Cobbo
3. Staggs
4. Lee
5. Farnworth
6. Mam
7. Reynolds (c)
8. Haas
9. Paix
10. James
11. Riki
12. Capewell
13. Hetherington

14. Walters/Gamble
15. Carrigan
16. Jensen
17. Robati

I believe Flegler is still suspended?
 

broncoscope

NYC Player
Feb 14, 2014
Threads
0
144
215
1. Tesi
2. Oats
3. Staggs
4. Cobbo
5. Herbie
6. Kelly
7. Reynolds
8. Hass
9. Turpin
10. Carrigan
11. Riki
12. Capewell
13. Hethrington

14. Paix
15. Fleggler
16. James
17. Piakura

Not sure how this team will go but I wouldn't mind giving it a run..
 

theshed

Just a Game
Aug 28, 2010
Threads
48
9,125
19,354
1. Tesi Niu (100%)
2. Oates (100%)
3. Staggs (101%)
4. Farnworth (100%)
5. Cobbo (100%)
6. Gamble (100%)
7. Reynolds (101%)
8. Haas (101%)
9. Turpin (100%)
10. Flegler (100%)
11. Riki (100%)
12. Capewell (101%)
13. Carrigan (100%)

14. Paix/Walters (50/50%)
15. Ryan James (100%)
16. Piakura (100%)
17. Somebody in the top 30 (100%)
You were doing well until you dogged Hetherington
 

heartly87

NRL Player
May 10, 2014
Threads
11
1,494
3,509
In the absence of any news, I'd like see what everyone thinks will be the first team of the season. This one's not about who you would pick, but who you think Kevvie will pick. We don't have a lot to work with from training spies so mine is mostly based on a continuation of last season with a couple of new faces.

List your team, and rate your confidence level on each position with a percentage. For the bench, just rank them in order. Don't worry if you're heavy in one position. For example, there's going to be at least one prop on the bench, probably two, but maybe not three. But because you know there'll be two props, the likelihood of one of the props being on the bench is still higher than a centre. The chance of Walters OR Paix being on the bench is higher than Mead, but the chance of Mead being on the bench is higher than Walters AND Paix together. If you get what I mean.

Here's mine:

1. Niu(80%), Cobbo (20%)
2. Oates (100%)
3. Staggs (100%)
4. Farnworth (70%), Cobbo (30%) - Farnworth on seniority only. I would pick Cobbo.
5. Cobbo (70%), Farnworth (30%) - as above.
6. Kelly (50%), Gamble (45%), Walters (5%)
7. Reynolds (100%)
8. Carrigan (100%)
9. Turpin (100%)
10. Haas (100%)
11. Capewell (100%)
12. Riki (90%), Robati (10%)
13. Hetherington (100%)

Bench (in order of likelihood)
My guess is two props, one second row, and one utility back.

James
Kennedy
(Flegler is suspended)

Robati

Walters
Gamble
Paix
Kelly

Palasia
Piakura

Lee
Mead
Isaako

For me, the big question is Gamble or Kelly at 6, but also whether the other would work on the bench if they miss out. I can picture Gamble as a utility, but not really Kelly. If Kelly is at 6, then maybe Walters will pip Gamble on the bench. But how do you leave out Tyson?

The next question is who goes to the wing: Cobbo or Farnworth. Received wisdom is Cobbo will be fullback by the end of the season. If so, why not just put him there now? Or send him back to play fullback in the ISC until he's ready. But, then again, why would you drop him when you have a wing spot to fill? It will be a tough question for Kevvie. I'm hoping he will send Farnworth to the wing and keep Cobbo at centre. But I'm betting against it.
Only difference I would have to yours is the under paid Kennedy being in the side. If Palasia is fully fit, I think he takes that spot, he overtook Kennedy late in the year up unto the point he did his shoulder. Kennedy fell way off in form, granted he had a nasty leg infection from the sounds and ended up losing a lot of mass, but even then a few weeks after return he never regained his early year form. Both will drop off once Fleggs returns.

I hope Kev puts Pat in the Frontrow with Payne, two big motor props who can nut out a strong first 30, bring on the fresh guys giving them 10 or so in the first half and 20 in the second, leaving P&P to come back for the run home. Once Flegg is back Kev can play around with the rotation giving Pat time at Lock so Hethrington can have a breather.

Side note will be how Willson is worked back in or if at all at NRL level. I think he showed a huge amount of potential and is one I could really see being that Petro type I have long been waiting for.

Getting more pumped for the season ahead every week. January sucks because it is so close yet so far from the season and not even my birthday can save it lol
 

Marty Deutschmann

NRL Captain
Oct 23, 2013
Threads
29
3,273
2,724
1. Niu
2. Cobbo / Farnworth
3. Staggs
4. Lee
5. Oates / Farnworth
6. Walters
7. Reynolds
8. Carrigan
9. Turpin
10. Haas
11. Rikki
12. Capewell
13. Hetherington

14. James
15. TC robati
16. Piakura
17. Paix

This is what I believe he'll go with. The bench? There's no chance in predicting that so far out.

Big ones people won't expect are Walters 6, Lee 4. Personally, not my pick! But we will see some interesting talk in Feb
 

Marty Deutschmann

NRL Captain
Oct 23, 2013
Threads
29
3,273
2,724
1. Niu
2. Cobbo / Farnworth
3. Staggs
4. Lee
5. Oates / Farnworth
6. Walters
7. Reynolds
8. Carrigan
9. Turpin
10. Haas
11. Rikki
12. Capewell
13. Hetherington

14. James
15. TC robati
16. Piakura
17. Paix

This is what I believe he'll go with. The bench? There's no chance in predicting that so far out.

Big ones people won't expect are Walters 6, Lee 4. Personally, not my pick! But we will see some interesting talk in Feb
Strike that.

The 50/50 will be Lee / Farnworth.

Staggs, Convo, Reyno & Capewell are one edge and I think locked at this stage.

But Walters, Lee, Rikki & Oates are in front at the moment for the other.
 

Xzei

NRL Player
Mar 13, 2017
Threads
0
2,234
3,715
Strike that.

The 50/50 will be Lee / Farnworth.

Staggs, Convo, Reyno & Capewell are one edge and I think locked at this stage.

But Walters, Lee, Rikki & Oates are in front at the moment for the other.
Would have thought capewell slots in glenns vacant spot and rikki continues on the right
 
Apr 10, 2015
Threads
11
3,722
5,659
Strike that.

The 50/50 will be Lee / Farnworth.

Staggs, Convo, Reyno & Capewell are one edge and I think locked at this stage.

But Walters, Lee, Rikki & Oates are in front at the moment for the other.
I'm not a massive fan of farnworth, he has his faults. But there is no way his spot is under threat. He won't go from "back of the year" to not in the side, regardless if you agree with the award or not.
And Lee didn't even play 1st grade last year, and has actively stated he is happy for this "opportunity to prove himself".
And this bs about Walters starting lol. Gamble and Kelly are both coming back from injury, you know what they can do. Why would you not try out your options after that. Walters may make the side in paix's place I think. But I actually think that's more to do with paixs ongoing development then anything else. From all reports he's held in very high regards by the coaching staff and I think they are hoping he becomes a starting hooker when the chance arises. He's nowhere near his level but from what I've seen of paix the most similar top level player comparison would be cook I think. Which would be good for Reynolds and us.
 

McHunt

State of Origin Rep
Aug 25, 2018
Threads
663
7,839
14,632
Strike that.

The 50/50 will be Lee / Farnworth.

Staggs, Convo, Reyno & Capewell are one edge and I think locked at this stage.

But Walters, Lee, Rikki & Oates are in front at the moment for the other.
I would be astonished if Brenko and Billy start in round one. I'm sure they'll eventually get time from the bench, but they have to be down the pecking order from the incumbents. Herbie and Selwyn are golden boys, both with the club and fans. Kevvie would be nuts to sack either one in favour of a journeyman.

Of course Kevvie will want to give his kid a game, but he will also make him earn it. If he doesn't he'll lose the dressing room, and that's the last thing he wants. He's right to be training him there with Albert and Tyson recovering from injuries, and Ezra still a bit green. Billy's best shot is to work his way onto the bench as a utility. I wouldn't be surprised to see him slot in for Jake at training either. It's very likely Adam won't play 80 minutes every week. The spine is going to see some shuffling from the bench.

Brenko I don't reckon we'll see until injury demands it, or we're hemorrhaging tries on the edges and Kevvie thinks he's the answer.

Tyson is a such a hothead - which we all love - he's inevitably going to spend some time suspended, so sure as shit we'll see a few 6's next season. Probably Ezra later in the year. If Albert isn't a dead cert 80 minute player, Kevvie probably won't pick him.
 

1910

State of Origin Captain
Apr 14, 2013
Threads
160
10,423
9,855
I think Piakura is in desperate need of some football, last year was another disrupted season and a few minutes on the bench in NRL wouldn't achieve much for his development.

I thought the Seagulls game would be a turning point, he came on early for Rogers and played nearly the whole game but then knocked himself out in the prelim and misses the Grand FInal.

Since the end of 2019.

He played 80 minutes in the Test.
Then no football at all in 2020
2021.

80 minutes v Tigers (ISC)
80 minutes v Townsville (ISC)
80 minutes v Souths (ISC)
56 minutes v Bears (ISC)
57 minutes v Tweed (ISC)
76 minutes v Hunters (ISC)
73 minutes v Seagulls (ISC)
5 minutes v Bears (ISC)
11 minutes v Sharks (NRL)

518 minutes-less than six and a half games since October 2019.

I don't think he ever put attack and defence together in 21. His best attacking game was against Souths off Gamble, but his best defence was against the Hunters where he made lots of great last ditch efforts to stop the big boys- He's a classic Clyde tackler and I think if he can string 20 games together you will see that more and more.

I think he needs a good run of 60-70 minutes in ISC.
 

Accept

NRL Player
Sep 27, 2016
Threads
1
2,868
2,597
1 Niu $1.01 Cobbo $5.00 Mead $20.00
2 Cobbo $2.50 Pereira $10 Oates $1000
3 Staggs $1.01 Lee $150.00
4 Farnworth $1.01 Lee $75.00
5 Issako $1.05 Mead $20.00
6 Walters $1.50 Kelly $500.00 Gamble 10,000.00
7 Reynolds $1.01 Kelly $1,000,000.00
8 James $2.00 Flegler $10.00
9 Turpin $1.50 Paix $1.75
10 Haas $1.01 Jensen 1,000,000,000.00
11 Riki $1.75 Robati $2.25
12 Capewell $1.01 Oates $123, 490.00
13 Carrigan $1.01 Hetherington $20.00

Piakura/Gamble
Hetherington
Robati
Mead

****, that's a shit team. God help us.
 

Marty Deutschmann

NRL Captain
Oct 23, 2013
Threads
29
3,273
2,724
1 Niu $1.01 Cobbo $5.00 Mead $20.00
2 Cobbo $2.50 Pereira $10 Oates $1000
3 Staggs $1.01 Lee $150.00
4 Farnworth $1.01 Lee $75.00
5 Issako $1.05 Mead $20.00
6 Walters $1.50 Kelly $500.00 Gamble 10,000.00
7 Reynolds $1.01 Kelly $1,000,000.00
8 James $2.00 Flegler $10.00
9 Turpin $1.50 Paix $1.75
10 Haas $1.01 Jensen 1,000,000,000.00
11 Riki $1.75 Robati $2.25
12 Capewell $1.01 Oates $123, 490.00
13 Carrigan $1.01 Hetherington $20.00

Piakura/Gamble
Hetherington
Robati
Mead

****, that's a shit team. God help us.
Damn.

Based on those odds. I'd be pretty happy with pocket money right now
 

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