Jeba
International
- Mar 4, 2008
- 6,501
- 244
Not much doing tonight so I have done a preview of the Newmarket Handicap with a comment on every runner. It is set to be a massive day at Flemington tomorrow. What's everyone tipping? In the Guineas I think Denman is a lay and Linton will win it, in the Australian Cup I love Shocking.
In the Newmarket:
1. All Silent Nicholas Hall 57kg Barrier 17
The class horse of the field and if there is any truth to the saying "horses for courses" he will be right in this and probably should win. If he didn't go to Hong Kong I would be putting my house on him but I am just a little concerned about how he will come back after that trip. He is still the top pick, albeit a smaller bet.
2. El Segundo Steven Arnold 56.5kg Barrier 13
Likes the straight at Flemington and doesn't run too many bad races. Will very much be the "people's champ" of the race which means he will probably be under the odds. No bet here but he will run well.
3. Nicconi Damien Oliver 56kg Barrier 16
Bit of a "hype" horse IMO. Cannot seem to string together a good preparation. He will win a race or two in that preparation, but on his last run you couldn't back him.
4. Turffontein Michael Rodd 55.5kg Barrier 2
Very good win in the William Reid which made him a dual group one winner so he has the class and is a winning chance.
5. Light Fantastic Craig Newitt 54kg Barrier 1
Just doesn't tick enough boxes for mine. Looked like a world beater as a 3yo but has only won 1 race since. Granted he's been unlucky in a few but it will take more than luck here for him to win.
6. Starspangledbanner Danny Nikolic 53kg Barrier 9
Should be right up there if he can keep his form going. I am a bit wary of him down the straight. For that I say place chance.
7. Cannonball Steven King 53kg Barrier 15
Has the Gai factor, on that he is no hope.
8. Duporth Dwayne Dunn 53kg Barrier 11
Will finish midfield as he is outclassed in this race.
9. Arinos James Winks 52.5kg Barrier 12
Huge run in the Oakleigh Plate, unlucky not to win. Having said that I doubt he can repeat the performance.
10. Eagle Falls Kerrin McEvoy 52.5kg Barrier 8
Has a case here. Won the Salinger impressivley on Derby Day and is in good form. One for exotics.
11. Five Car Stud Brent Evans 52kg Barrier 3
Fair dinkum if Five Car Stud wins the Newmarket Handicap on Saturday 06/03/2010, I will give up the punt for good.
12. Gran Sasso Chris Symons 52kg Barrier 19
B grade running in the A grade company. Can't win.
13. Wanted Luke Nolen 51.5kg Barrier 7
Will run well as always but knowing his luck he will run a place again. He is a winning hope but he is emerging as a non-winner.
14. Headway Clare Lindop 50kg Barrier 6
The best value pick in the race IMO. They will go hard in this race and if Lindop holds her back she can swamp them. Will need a bit of luck but can definately win.
15. King Pulse Stephen Baster 50kg Barrier 5
Be wary of this boy, can definately run well. Has performed down the straight before against his own age and could easily transfer that to this. Exotics.
16. Shellscrape Glen Boss 50kg Barrier 18
Has the Group 1 Glen factor and has also performed well down the straight in the past, having been placed in group 1 in his last 2 down the straight.
17. Tickets Jason Benbow 50kg Barrier 14
Could run well but I don't think he can match these. Might sneak a place, maybe.
18. Tollespirit Jason Maskiell 50kg Barrier 4
See above with Tickets. Just doesn't have what it takes to threaten too much.
19. Trusting Craig Williams 50kg Barrier 10
I still think this horse could beat Denman. Has an electric turn of speed and a jockey who really lifts for the big occasion. I think he could run a big race fresh and could win.
THE TIP
A ridiculously hard race to pick a winner. I have rounded it down to seven - All Silent, Turffontein, Eagle Falls, Wanted, Headway, Shellscrape and Trusting. We are not here to back seven horses in a race, so my tip is All Silent, have something each way on Trusting, and make sure you include each of those 7 horses in the quaddie.
In the Newmarket:
1. All Silent Nicholas Hall 57kg Barrier 17
The class horse of the field and if there is any truth to the saying "horses for courses" he will be right in this and probably should win. If he didn't go to Hong Kong I would be putting my house on him but I am just a little concerned about how he will come back after that trip. He is still the top pick, albeit a smaller bet.
2. El Segundo Steven Arnold 56.5kg Barrier 13
Likes the straight at Flemington and doesn't run too many bad races. Will very much be the "people's champ" of the race which means he will probably be under the odds. No bet here but he will run well.
3. Nicconi Damien Oliver 56kg Barrier 16
Bit of a "hype" horse IMO. Cannot seem to string together a good preparation. He will win a race or two in that preparation, but on his last run you couldn't back him.
4. Turffontein Michael Rodd 55.5kg Barrier 2
Very good win in the William Reid which made him a dual group one winner so he has the class and is a winning chance.
5. Light Fantastic Craig Newitt 54kg Barrier 1
Just doesn't tick enough boxes for mine. Looked like a world beater as a 3yo but has only won 1 race since. Granted he's been unlucky in a few but it will take more than luck here for him to win.
6. Starspangledbanner Danny Nikolic 53kg Barrier 9
Should be right up there if he can keep his form going. I am a bit wary of him down the straight. For that I say place chance.
7. Cannonball Steven King 53kg Barrier 15
Has the Gai factor, on that he is no hope.
8. Duporth Dwayne Dunn 53kg Barrier 11
Will finish midfield as he is outclassed in this race.
9. Arinos James Winks 52.5kg Barrier 12
Huge run in the Oakleigh Plate, unlucky not to win. Having said that I doubt he can repeat the performance.
10. Eagle Falls Kerrin McEvoy 52.5kg Barrier 8
Has a case here. Won the Salinger impressivley on Derby Day and is in good form. One for exotics.
11. Five Car Stud Brent Evans 52kg Barrier 3
Fair dinkum if Five Car Stud wins the Newmarket Handicap on Saturday 06/03/2010, I will give up the punt for good.
12. Gran Sasso Chris Symons 52kg Barrier 19
B grade running in the A grade company. Can't win.
13. Wanted Luke Nolen 51.5kg Barrier 7
Will run well as always but knowing his luck he will run a place again. He is a winning hope but he is emerging as a non-winner.
14. Headway Clare Lindop 50kg Barrier 6
The best value pick in the race IMO. They will go hard in this race and if Lindop holds her back she can swamp them. Will need a bit of luck but can definately win.
15. King Pulse Stephen Baster 50kg Barrier 5
Be wary of this boy, can definately run well. Has performed down the straight before against his own age and could easily transfer that to this. Exotics.
16. Shellscrape Glen Boss 50kg Barrier 18
Has the Group 1 Glen factor and has also performed well down the straight in the past, having been placed in group 1 in his last 2 down the straight.
17. Tickets Jason Benbow 50kg Barrier 14
Could run well but I don't think he can match these. Might sneak a place, maybe.
18. Tollespirit Jason Maskiell 50kg Barrier 4
See above with Tickets. Just doesn't have what it takes to threaten too much.
19. Trusting Craig Williams 50kg Barrier 10
I still think this horse could beat Denman. Has an electric turn of speed and a jockey who really lifts for the big occasion. I think he could run a big race fresh and could win.
THE TIP
A ridiculously hard race to pick a winner. I have rounded it down to seven - All Silent, Turffontein, Eagle Falls, Wanted, Headway, Shellscrape and Trusting. We are not here to back seven horses in a race, so my tip is All Silent, have something each way on Trusting, and make sure you include each of those 7 horses in the quaddie.
