Team Building Analysis

[HarryAllan7]

Hi guys, little off-season project I wanted to share with everyone...

Seeing the Dolphins coming in and starting a team from scratch had me interested in how exactly you would build an NRL squad from the ground up if you had full freedom and an empty slate.

The non-negotiable conditions are (as of next year):
- Need a 30 man squad
- Max salary cap $10m AUD
- Min wage $120k AUD

I know there are some special rules for veteran players etc, but for ease of analysis I've left those out.

Everything else is totally up to choice - how many players of each position group in the squad, how much you pay each position group, how many players on minimum wage etc. You have to balance depth against spend - there's A LOT of possible combinations

I created a spreadsheet where you can play around with the positions and numbers to build your own squad, and then it produces some analysis metrics to show your allocation of squad spots and total spend broken down by position group.

Here is how I would structure a squad and the associated breakdown:

As you can see, I have 33% of the squad (10 players) invested into spine positions, but 44% of total cap invested into those spine players, while 30% of the 30 man squad was on minimum wage.

I've attached the spreadsheet to this post - I'd be very interested to:

1) See how other posters might see the ideal way to build a team and how it varies from mine,
2) To collate an average from all posters who build a squad to become the 'BHQ Aggregate team structure' and compare what we come up with to an estimate of how the Broncos are currently built

Please note this is purely hypothetical - There's no specific centre I have in mind to spend 325k on, it's just an objective look at the numbers.

Please feel free to download the spreadsheet and play around with building a squad and post up your results so we can discuss and compare.

 

[theshed]

About to earn yourself a guest appearance on the BHQ Podcast with content like this

 

[007]

I think you could consider an age/games played function to the value also. Younger players will probably see only 60-75% of their optimal wage. Older players too start to fall that side of the 75% of optimal. There will be elite outliers of course.

Also throw in a 200k veteran allowance and add 300k to the squad for external third party sponsors.

Edit: I think also scale the hooker role back a bit. 750 for premium and 300 for backup.

 

[HarryAllan7]

I think you could consider an age/games played function to the value also. Younger players will probably see only 60-75% of their optimal wage. Older players too start to fall that side of the 75% of optimal. There will be elite outliers of course.

Also throw in a 200k veteran allowance and add 300k to the squad for external third party sponsors.

Edit: I think also scale the hooker role back a bit. 750 for premium and 300 for backup.

Yeah just kept it simple without the TPA / veteran allowance since I'm not 100% on how they work.

Could definitely justify less spend on the hooker category, there's so many ways you could build a squad - that's why I found the exercise so interesting

 

[BRC088]

Well, clearly not based on the storms or roosters spreadsheet...

 

[theshed]

Wasn’t it mentioned somewhere about leaked info about Melbourne having a spreadsheet of prices they’re willing to pay for certain positions or something like that? Or did I imagine it

 

[BooKhaki]

If you have a million dollar hooker, you don't need a 500k one on the bench

 

[HarryAllan7]

Wasn’t it mentioned somewhere about leaked info about Melbourne having a spreadsheet of prices they’re willing to pay for certain positions or something like that? Or did I imagine it

Yeah it used player info and stats to calculate a 'fair value' for each player - let them target highest rated players in each position for the right price based solely on their on-field performance. Also allowed them to identify high performing players who could be acquired at a bargain for very cheap (undervalued) / low performing expensive players to avoid (overvalued).

It's one of the reasons they're able to pick up so many Brenko Lee type players who end up being solid with Melbourne... the formula identified that Lee was capable of producing at a decent level and was undervalued compared to his on-field performance. Very Moneyball-esque type approach.

 

[Huge]

I don't know much about values but I think I remember WB saying he starts with a high value prop( that's not necessarily money). My old memory says he starts with a sides foundation. Two props two complimentary halves reliable hooker two servicable experienced centres capable experienced fullback and all the rest after.

It goes back to when he got Lazurus.

 

[lachyy]

i think hooker quality is completely reliant on the pack around him, if your lock especially is an incredible ball player that can play first reciever, your hooker doesnt have to individually shoulder the responsibility of delivery to the halves. On the flip side if your pack is dominant defensively your hooker defensively can be a bit more suspect. Of course the best hookers are all round just incredible, but they are very few

 

[1910]

I don't know much about values but I think I remember WB saying he starts with a high value prop( that's not necessarily money). My old memory says he starts with a sides foundation. Two props two complimentary halves reliable hooker two servicable experienced centres capable experienced fullback and all the rest after.

It goes back to when he got Lazurus.

Before that, 1984 when he lost 42-8 to Wynnum went away and stripped Souths forwards. Brought in Phelan and Carr he realised he loved the wrong type of player. Went back to the Grand Final with one forward from 12 months earlier- Muller and Won 10-8.

To turn around the biggest defeat in 80 years and do it with a brand new forward pack is massive.

 

[Alec]

I don't think there is a million dollar hooker on the market right now. Smith and Grant are probably the best two, and Grant is probably the only one you could offer that money to, and just based on potential.

If you can't get either one, there's definitely no one else out there I'd be paying anywhere near that amount to.

I'd rank FRF higher than 2RF too.

 

[Sproj]

I don't think there is a million dollar hooker on the market right now. Smith and Grant are probably the best two, and Grant is probably the only one you could offer that money to, and just based on potential.

If you can't get either one, there's definitely no one else out there I'd be paying anywhere near that amount to.

I'd rank FRF higher than 2RF too.

I wouldn't be offering that to Smith either, the only one worth it is Grant.

 

[kman]

I didnt know the best place to put this but, on NRL.com that had broncos top 10 tries. I was quite disappointed and so should the rest of the team for the year. 8 out of the 10 best tries were from kicks and not from good backline plays or set moves at all. A good portion were from pure luck as well.

I believe we will have alot more control and set up for next year with a solid pre-season and trial runs.

 

[Foordy]

I didnt know the best place to put this but, on NRL.com that had broncos top 10 tries. I was quite disappointed and so should the rest of the team for the year. 8 out of the 10 best tries were from kicks and not from good backline plays or set moves at all. A good portion were from pure luck as well.

I believe we will have alot more control and set up for next year with a solid pre-season and trial runs.

remember those were just someone's opinion on our best tries

 

[WASSHHH]

remember those were just someone's opinion on our best tries

Also, it’s been that way for quite a while, probably since about 2018.

We had set plays, but we also relied on individual brilliance from Roberts, Milford, Hunt, Fifita etc.

We haven’t been a well structured team since probably 2015, and the argument could definitely be made that we weren’t even your typical grinding, structured team then either.

We simply haven’t had the spine (or the GOAT) to be execute a game plan for a long time.

 

[Waynesaurus]

I wouldn't be offering that to Smith either, the only one worth it is Grant.

Spending $1 million on Grant is quite a big risk based on his injury history IMO. One of Smith's best attributes is his resilience, particularly considering how he plays the game.

 

[BroncosFever]

You can't pay Grant that sort of money until he becomes an 80 minute player, at the very least.

I thought he got found out in the prelim when Brandon Smith got concussed and Grant was asked to play bigger minutes and he didn't offer much at all.