The road to the Finals

[Jeba]

OK long post time!!

So as it stands now we are running 9th. Which is the exact same position we were in this time last year. So we have been in this position before and have come out the other side with positive signs, with the injury to Wallace against St George and an illegal Melbourne Storm team being the only things standing between us and another Grand Final appearance.

It was this time last year we were preparing to do battle against Canberra, and then we got thumped 56-0. That was our only loss before the finals series.

Looking at the ladder this season and it looks like we can only afford 1 or 2 more losses. And here is our draw:

v Dragons (H)
v Cowboys (A)
v Eels (H)
v Knights (A)
v Warriors (A)
v Raiders (A)

That is a very tough draw. The Dragons are obviously the team to beat (though they may be out of form a little at the moment) and the Eels at the moment look the form team, and the road trips to New Zealand and Canberra are two of the toughest road trips in the comp. I will give us 4 wins.

And at the moment it looks like the positions of 4th-8th are being fought out by 6 teams being us, Manly, Warriors, Titans, Souths and Parramatta.

The draws for those teams (and my prediction notes):
MANLY
v Knights (A)
v Storm (H)
v Dragons (A)
v Warriors (H)
v Roosters (A)
v Bulldogs (H)
Pretty tough draw, and who knows what Melbourne will turn up with. On form though should win their next 3 games which should seal their spot. Can only see them losing 2, putting them on 32 points.

WARRIORS
v Titans (H)
v Sharks (A)
v Knights (H)
v Manly (A)
v Broncos (H)
v Eels (A)
Again, should win their next 3 which should be enough to get them in, but a tough last 3 rounds. The bias fan in my sees them losing their last 3 games, leaving them on 30 points.

TITANS
v Warriors (A)
v Eels (H)
v Cowboys (H)
v Roosters (A)
v Sharks (A)
v Tigers (H)
Wouldn't think they will win their next 2 which will make it tough for them. On form should beat the Cowboys and Sharks but will find it tough to win the other games. I will give them 2 wins for 28 points.

SOUTHS
v Bulldogs (A)
v Tigers (H)
v Storm (A)
v Panthers (A)
v Eels (H)
v Dragons (A)
To be honest, with the injuries to Stuart and Taylor, can only see them winning 1 game there at the most, against the Bulldogs and even that won't be easy. Leaves them on 24, which wouldn't be enough.

PARRAMATTA
v Roosters (H)
v Titans (A)
v Broncos (A)
v Tigers (H)
v Souths (A)
v Warriors (H)
Pretty tough draw but if the Hayne train keeps rolling they can win all of those games. Let's give them a loss to the Broncos [icon_wink Puts them on 32.

So that leaves - Manly (32) Eels (32), Broncos (30), Warriors (30), Titans (28), Souths (24)

Going on current points differential we should end up in front of the Warriors, and if we manage to jag an extra win we can land in front of Parramatta as well.

So I think 6th or 7th is where we are destined for and a match up against either the Panthers, Roosters or Tigers in week 1 of the finals.

 

[user_nat]

Raiders game is in Brisbane. Although we have been crap at home this year.

We don't have a great record at Newcastle either.. So I'm worried tbh.

 

[Jeba]

Good point re Raiders game!!!

 

[vertigo]

We can't lose any more than 2 games and who knows what's going to happen with our defense between now and round 26.

 

[The Brizz]

The Dragons will strangle us into submission on Sunday if we do not change our attitude completely, we beat them last year when Sims and Kenny really set the tone with some monster dominant tackles early and our forwards got a real roll on, if we don't aim up early they will get control and won't take their foot off the throat.

 

[Donny]

I did the ladder predictor.
1 loss gives us a chance at top 4.
2 losses gives us top 8.
3 losses will mean it comes down to for and against which in out case isnt to bad
4+ losses and were gone.

There is no reason why we cant win all TBH and still push for a top 4 spot.

 

[rnabokov]

This is all academic. It may be fun, but unless we dominate in the forwards, the only way the team will win any of these games is if the opposition plays worse than us in defence.

 

[tkday]

As it stands, I think you're right rnabokov. The only we are going to win this year is if the other teams continue their shakey performances.

 

[Steve]

I was looking at the draw last night. A very tough run home. Last night would have been handy to win but with a loss I think it means we'll be travelling week one of the finals (assuming we make it that far).

I'm not too concerned though as a win/loss has you jumping 2-3 spots automatically. If we can string a few wins together (starting on Sunday) we'll be very well placed.

 

[Donny]

Why cant we win all of our remaining games? A week ago everyone was saying with defence like that we can win the comp. Now because we loss a game we are just making up the numbers...........whats with that?? It happens everytime we loss a game on BHQ. People get angry and say things they probally dont mean.

Sure it will be a tough run home but I'd wouldnt want it any other way.

 

[Coxy]

Why cant we win all of our remaining games? A week ago everyone was saying with defence like that we can win the comp. Now because we loss a game we are just making up the numbers...........whats with that?? It happens everytime we loss a game on BHQ. People get angry and say things they probally dont mean.

Sure it will be a tough run home but I'd wouldnt want it any other way.

Broncos are currently riding a WLWLWL streak. We need to break that. We're not consistent and not getting momentum. It's going to be tough given our next 3 opponents - Dragons, Cowboys, Eels.

The next 3 games will decide it. Win 2 of the 3, we're a chance. Anything less we're gone IMO.

 

[Donny]

Why cant we win all of our remaining games? A week ago everyone was saying with defence like that we can win the comp. Now because we loss a game we are just making up the numbers...........whats with that?? It happens everytime we loss a game on BHQ. People get angry and say things they probally dont mean.

Sure it will be a tough run home but I'd wouldnt want it any other way.

Broncos are currently riding a WLWLWL streak. We need to break that. We're not consistent and not getting momentum. It's going to be tough given our next 3 opponents - Dragons, Cowboys, Eels.

The next 3 games will decide it. Win 2 of the 3, we're a chance. Anything less we're gone IMO.

TBH the last two losses have been heart breaking. The Tigers game we should of won and we were without any of our origin starts. Took a flukey play from Robbie "I take a dive" Farah to pull it out of their arses. Last night we didnt deserve to win but we should of after hitting the lead. So even though we have lost two of out last three, both games we could of won. I know we didnt but at least it shows we are still in the games that we are lossing. We just need to finish them off.

I have a good feeling about the Dragons game and at least if the wlwlwl trot continues we will win on sunday icon_smile

 

[Coxy]

Yeah, as I just said in the Roosters thread, the losses to the Raiders, Knights, Panthers and Tigers, as well as the Roosters, could prove very very costly.

Even if we'd jagged 2 of them, think how much better we'd be positioned on the ladder! Such a tight competition, can't afford those kind of losses.

 

[ningnangnong]

The price you pay for having such a young team - inconsistency.

 

[Donny]

Well we might be saving our luck for the finals hopefully [icon_pray.

The Rosters have had a lot of luck of late, last three games they have scored in the last couple mins to win the game.

We havent had one of those come from behind wins all year. Same with the Rabbit's they have lost some close games.

Im still confident we can push deep into the finals. We just need to improve in some areas. We have the experiance & talent to win. Just need to be more patient with the ball (yes Gillet im looking at you) in attack and reproduce the defence we showed against the titans

 

[Donny]

I wish the Dragons had of won the other night. I am not confident considering 2 losses straight for the Dragons is rare. (Unless they are going through their slump like they did last year!)

In fact, didn't we play them this time last year after their loss to the Raiders? And we beat them at home too.

Yep, I think the score was 10-0 if my memory services me correctly.

Dave Taylor was amazing that night

 

[Coxy]

I wish the Dragons had of won the other night. I am not confident considering 2 losses straight for the Dragons is rare. (Unless they are going through their slump like they did last year!)

In fact, didn't we play them this time last year after their loss to the Raiders? And we beat them at home too.

Yep, I think the score was 10-0 if my memory services me correctly.

Dave Taylor was amazing that night

12-2. And yes, DT was awesome!

 

[Donny]

Anyone know if Weyman and Hunt are back next week?

Im sure Hunt is out for the season. Weyman should be back. I think he has served his 3 match ban.