2023 Run Home

[Big Pete]

With the Origin series in the rear-view mirror, it's time to turn our attention to the finals. 'Technically' there are fifteen teams still in contention, but realistically I'd say there are only nine teams that could win the competition. I believe in order to win a premiership it's vital to make the top four so I thought I'd break the scenario down.

Brisbane Broncos (13 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Rabbitohs (A)*, Roosters (H), Cowboys (A), Eels (H), Bye, Raiders (A), Storm (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Tom Flegler (vs. Roosters), Corey Oates, Jordan Riki (vs. Raiders)

It's a tough assignment facing the Broncos. After being snake-bitten last year, 0-6 is not out of the question. The sooner they register the first win, the better, so this Friday shapes as a pivotal contest. Their easiest game is against the Roosters and of all the teams 'technically' in contention, they are by far the most likely. Based on this season, they should win at least half those games and finish with 16 wins but we'll know more after the Rabbitohs clash.

Penrith Panthers (12 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Cowboys (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Taylan May (Season)

The biggest challenge facing the Panthers is getting through seven weeks without any key injuries. If they can keep their best team on the paddock I can't see any reason why they can't pick up at least five wins. I can see them dropping one game against either Sharks, Storm or Eels but they should at least go 2/3. Unless they struggle, I don't see any reason why they won't just rush out their reserve grade side against the Cowboys. I'm expecting them to finish with 17 wins, comfortably inside the Top 4.

Melbourne Storm (11 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Knights (A), Eels (H), Panthers (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Eliesa Katoa (vs. Eels/Panthers), Ryan Papenhuyzen (Indefinite/Season)

It's official, Melbourne are in a slump and yet they're still entrenched in the Top 4. This is one of the weakest Melbourne line-ups in years yet they just out-compete and win off the back of their champion players. By rights they should be down with the Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles etc. and despite their best efforts they're vulnarable. Ordinarily, I'd comfortably have them finishing with 16 wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if they let a game or two slip and finish with 15 wins.

Canberra Raiders (11 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Corey Harawira-Naera (Indefinite), Danny Levi (Season), Xavier Savage (vs. Broncos)

We'll get a very good indication of where the Raiders are at this Friday. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors smashed them in the back-end of the contest and spoiled the party. For this reason, they're in serious danger of being leapfrogged. They do get the luxury of three winnable home games to steady themselves but a loss to the Knights is not out of the question. I'm expecting them to win all three and take at least one game from their contenders to finish with 15 wins.

Warriors (11 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Raiders (H), Bye, Titans (A), Tigers (A), Sea Eagles (H), Dragons (H), Dolphins (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Edward Kosi (vs. Dragons), Te Maire Martin (Indefinite), Jazz Tevaga (Indefinite)

Things are looking good for the Warriors. Outside of the Raiders, they're not facing any legitimate contenders and by rights they should at least go 5-1 if not undefeated during this period. However, like when I've answered (c) far too often on a multiple choice test, I'm beginning to doubt myself. Can the Warriors nail their top four spot or will old habits die hard? I'll tentatively lock in 17 wins, but it would be a major disappointment if they missed the Top 4 from here.

Cronulla Sharks (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Cowboys (A), Knights (H), Raiders (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Teig Wilton (TBC), Braden Hamlin-Uele (vs. Panthers), Royce Hunt (vs. Sea Eagles/Panthers), Wade Graham (TBC)

For the longest time, the Sharks seemed like a genuine lock for the Top 4. They had a fairly comfortable draw, a breezy representative period and enough big wins to give them a favourable f/a. However they've seemingly hit a ceiling and have a mental block against other contenders. They have the opportunity to rectify that in the coming weeks, but let's say it's a barrier that this team can't come across, what then? Well 13 wins which puts them in some jeopardy of missing the finals altogether. Realistically, they should at least be able to achieve one win either against the Cowboys or Raiders to make it 14 wins. It will be very interesting to see how their right edge performs against DCE/Olakauatu/Koula/Saab. Surely they can't be any worse than what we saw against the Warriors?

Parramatta Eels (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Cowboys (A), Storm (A), Dragons (H), Broncos (A), Roosters (H), Panthers (A), Bye

Injuries/Suspensions: Dylan Brown (vs. Dragons), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (vs. Roosters), Mika Sivo (vs. Roosters), Wiremu Greig (vs. Storm), Josh Hodgson (Season)

It has to be said, the Eels have done well to remain in content. They lost a lot of key players from last year, their initial draw was tough and they had to deal with a lot of injuries. Throw in some misbehaving players and their campaign could have easily come to a premature ending yet here they are. With that said, they have one of the toughest runs home with the only gimme being the Dragons at home. I expect they'll struggle against the Cowboys and Storm, so it'll come down to the impact Dylan Brown makes and if he's good enough to spark them. They're the team most under pressure and I expect them to draw the short straw with 13 wins.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (10 Wins) - 1 Lose Streak
vs. Broncos (H), Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Bye, Roosters (H)

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Rabbitohs will be making up to look towards the draw. They'll get an opportunity to make a big statement with their full compliment coming back off a bye following their Origin heroics when they take on the Broncos on the Sunshine Coast. After that it should virtually be downhill skiing with the Sharks and Roosters game tossing up some potential pitfalls. As it stands, I think they'll make up one half of the grand final and they'll finally be looking to pay off this style they've been playing since 2018.

North Queensland Cowboys (10 Wins) - 4 Win Streak
vs. Eels (H), Titans (A), Broncos (H), Bye, Sharks (H), Dolphins (A), Panthers (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Heilum Luki (vs. Titans), James Tamou (vs. Sharks), Tom Chester (Season)

The form team of the competition and while they find themselves outside of the eight, they're a genuine chance of finishing Top 4. On form they win all those upcoming games and the only deterrent maybe the bye and pressure of maintaining a 10 game win streak heading into the finals. The only time they have to travel outside of Queensland is against the Panthers who will likely be sporting a reserve grade outfit for them. If they do, I expect it to be 10 wins on the trot, with 16 wins in the end.

TL;DR Expectations
1. Panthers - 17 Wins
2. Warriors - 17 Wins
3. Rabbitohs - 16 Wins
4. Broncos - 16 Wins
5. Cowboys - 16 Wins
6. Storm - 15 Wins
7. Raiders - 15 Wins
8. Sharks - 14 Wins

9. Eels - 13 Wins

Share your ladder predictors, do you see any upsets on the horizon? Are the Broncos in trouble?

I'll have a look at the 'technically' teams next.

 

[Santa]

With the Origin series in the rear-view mirror, it's time to turn our attention to the finals. 'Technically' there are fifteen teams still in contention, but realistically I'd say there are only nine teams that could win the competition. I believe in order to win a premiership it's vital to make the top four so I thought I'd break the scenario down.

Brisbane Broncos (13 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Rabbitohs (A)*, Roosters (H), Cowboys (A), Eels (H), Bye, Raiders (A), Storm (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Tom Flegler (vs. Roosters), Corey Oates, Jordan Riki (vs. Raiders)

It's a tough assignment facing the Broncos. After being snake-bitten last year, 0-6 is not out of the question. The sooner they register the first win, the better, so this Friday shapes as a pivotal contest. Their easiest game is against the Roosters and of all the teams 'technically' in contention, they are by far the most likely. Based on this season, they should win at least half those games and finish with 16 wins but we'll know more after the Rabbitohs clash.

Penrith Panthers (12 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Cowboys (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Taylan May (Season)

The biggest challenge facing the Panthers is getting through seven weeks without any key injuries. If they can keep their best team on the paddock I can't see any reason why they can't pick up at least five wins. I can see them dropping one game against either Sharks, Storm or Eels but they should at least go 2/3. Unless they struggle, I don't see any reason why they won't just rush out their reserve grade side against the Cowboys. I'm expecting them to finish with 17 wins, comfortably inside the Top 4.

Melbourne Storm (11 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Knights (A), Eels (H), Panthers (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Eliesa Katoa (vs. Eels/Panthers), Ryan Papenhuyzen (Indefinite/Season)

It's official, Melbourne are in a slump and yet they're still entrenched in the Top 4. This is one of the weakest Melbourne line-ups in years yet they just out-compete and win off the back of their champion players. By rights they should be down with the Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles etc. and despite their best efforts they're vulnarable. Ordinarily, I'd comfortably have them finishing with 16 wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if they let a game or two slip and finish with 15 wins.

Canberra Raiders (11 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Corey Harawira-Naera (Indefinite), Danny Levi (Season), Xavier Savage (vs. Broncos)

We'll get a very good indication of where the Raiders are at this Friday. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors smashed them in the back-end of the contest and spoiled the party. For this reason, they're in serious danger of being leapfrogged. They do get the luxury of three winnable home games to steady themselves but a loss to the Knights is not out of the question. I'm expecting them to win all three and take at least one game from their contenders to finish with 15 wins.

Warriors (11 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Raiders (H), Bye, Titans (A), Tigers (A), Sea Eagles (H), Dragons (H), Dolphins (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Edward Kosi (vs. Dragons), Te Maire Martin (Indefinite), Jazz Tevaga (Indefinite)

Things are looking good for the Warriors. Outside of the Raiders, they're not facing any legitimate contenders and by rights they should at least go 5-1 if not undefeated during this period. However, like when I've answered (c) far too often on a multiple choice test, I'm beginning to doubt myself. Can the Warriors nail their top four spot or will old habits die hard? I'll tentatively lock in 17 wins, but it would be a major disappointment if they missed the Top 4 from here.

Cronulla Sharks (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Cowboys (A), Knights (H), Raiders (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Teig Wilton (TBC), Braden Hamlin-Uele (vs. Panthers), Royce Hunt (vs. Sea Eagles/Panthers), Wade Graham (TBC)

For the longest time, the Sharks seemed like a genuine lock for the Top 4. They had a fairly comfortable draw, a breezy representative period and enough big wins to give them a favourable f/a. However they've seemingly hit a ceiling and have a mental block against other contenders. They have the opportunity to rectify that in the coming weeks, but let's say it's a barrier that this team can't come across, what then? Well 13 wins which puts them in some jeopardy of missing the finals altogether. Realistically, they should at least be able to achieve one win either against the Cowboys or Raiders to make it 14 wins. It will be very interesting to see how their right edge performs against DCE/Olakauatu/Koula/Saab. Surely they can't be any worse than what we saw against the Warriors?

Parramatta Eels (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Cowboys (A), Storm (A), Dragons (H), Broncos (A), Roosters (H), Panthers (A), Bye

Injuries/Suspensions: Dylan Brown (vs. Dragons), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (vs. Roosters), Mika Sivo (vs. Roosters), Wiremu Greig (vs. Storm), Josh Hodgson (Season)

It has to be said, the Eels have done well to remain in content. They lost a lot of key players from last year, their initial draw was tough and they had to deal with a lot of injuries. Throw in some misbehaving players and their campaign could have easily come to a premature ending yet here they are. With that said, they have one of the toughest runs home with the only gimme being the Dragons at home. I expect they'll struggle against the Cowboys and Storm, so it'll come down to the impact Dylan Brown makes and if he's good enough to spark them. They're the team most under pressure and I expect them to draw the short straw with 13 wins.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (10 Wins) - 1 Lose Streak
vs. Broncos (H), Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Bye, Roosters (H)

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Rabbitohs will be making up to look towards the draw. They'll get an opportunity to make a big statement with their full compliment coming back off a bye following their Origin heroics when they take on the Broncos on the Sunshine Coast. After that it should virtually be downhill skiing with the Sharks and Roosters game tossing up some potential pitfalls. As it stands, I think they'll make up one half of the grand final and they'll finally be looking to pay off this style they've been playing since 2018.

North Queensland Cowboys (10 Wins) - 4 Win Streak
vs. Eels (H), Titans (A), Broncos (H), Bye, Sharks (H), Dolphins (A), Panthers (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Heilum Luki (vs. Titans), James Tamou (vs. Sharks), Tom Chester (Season)

The form team of the competition and while they find themselves outside of the eight, they're a genuine chance of finishing Top 4. On form they win all those upcoming games and the only deterrent maybe the bye and pressure of maintaining a 10 game win streak heading into the finals. The only time they have to travel outside of Queensland is against the Panthers who will likely be sporting a reserve grade outfit for them. If they do, I expect it to be 10 wins on the trot, with 16 wins in the end.

TL;DR Expectations
1. Panthers - 17 Wins
2. Warriors - 17 Wins
3. Rabbitohs - 16 Wins
4. Broncos - 16 Wins
5. Cowboys - 16 Wins
6. Storm - 15 Wins
7. Raiders - 15 Wins
8. Sharks - 14 Wins

9. Eels - 13 Wins

Share your ladder predictors, do you see any upsets on the horizon? Are the Broncos in trouble?

I'll have a look at the 'technically' teams next.

Great analysis mate!

I think this weekend will determine a lot of teams seasons. I'm predicting that the current top 8 + Cowboys are the only real remaining contenders (teams that could still potentially make the top 4). The rest are done for the year, and even if they creep into the 8, they'll get knocked out early.

Besides the battle for the spoon between the Tigers and Dragons, some big games this week include:

Raiders (4th) vs Warriors (5th): if the Warriors win this, they should easily finish top 4 (possibly even top 2 given their draw). However, if they stuff this up they will be 2 wins outside the top 4 and relying on other results to earn a 2nd chance in the finals.

Rabbitohs (8th) vs Broncos (2nd): Rabbits full strength after a long time, and if they want to even have a chance at top 4 they have to start their winning Streak now. We have the hardest draw of the comp the last 7 weeks, so we need to get any win we can to stick with the top 4. Top 2 would be awesome, but with Penrith and Melbourne unlikely to lose many matches (although they do play each other soon), we need to bank as many wins as possible.

Eels (7th) vs Cowboys (9th): I think whoever wins this will make the 8, with the loser dropping out. Eels losing Sivo and RCG for 4 weeks is huge too. They probably have the 2nd hardest remaining draw (after us).

 

[Allo]

Fitzgibbon seems to have rolled the dice on Trindall over Moylan in a bid to stop the slide.

All Tricky has to do really is be better in defence, which shouldn’t be hard. It’s now or never with that switch and Fitz has to stick with it this close to finals unless they continue to slide.

If they win two of their next three, he’d be a brave/stupid man to think about bringing Moylan back in

Connor Tracey in at centre as well over Sif Talakai who’s been badly exposed again.

Two players that are too good not to be playing first grade.

 

[Culhwch]

Penrith Panthers (12 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Cowboys (H)

Five of their last seven games at home. Not saying, just saying...

 

[LittleDavey]

OK I did the ladder predictor and I don't like it. I like it a lot better than the super pessimistic ones I was throwing out halfway through the year though.

Major assumptions - I left each win at 12 points, though points differential is going to be absolutely critical as I think a bunch of teams will finish on equal win points. Broncos to drop games against Cows, Canberra & Storm. To play devil's advocate, and based on last year, Panthers will be at least a game clear in the last round so throw their 2nd string team in against the Cows for a loss in the last round. Result:

First round finals, we play Sharkies - excellent! EXCEPT that then pits us against the loser of Penrith/Cows the following week. Assuming Penrith wins round 1 and we knock out the Cows, we then have to play the winner of Wahs/Storm after they have had a week's break...so if we win the second week, we won't make it to the big dance IMO.

Ideally, we would probably want to finish 3rd and play the Warriors (2nd) in the first week of the finals.

 

[Kimlo]

OK I did the ladder predictor and I don't like it. I like it a lot better than the super pessimistic ones I was throwing out halfway through the year though.

Major assumptions - I left each win at 12 points, though points differential is going to be absolutely critical as I think a bunch of teams will finish on equal win points. Broncos to drop games against Cows, Canberra & Storm. To play devil's advocate, and based on last year, Panthers will be at least a game clear in the last round so throw their 2nd string team in against the Cows for a loss in the last round. Result:

View attachment 23092

First round finals, we play Sharkies - excellent! EXCEPT that then pits us against the loser of Penrith/Cows the following week. Assuming Penrith wins round 1 and we knock out the Cows, we then have to play the winner of Wahs/Storm after they have had a week's break...so if we win the second week, we won't make it to the big dance IMO.

Ideally, we would probably want to finish 3rd and play the Warriors (2nd) in the first week of the finals.

Unsubscribe.

 

[LittleDavey]

I should also add that with differential being so critical, we need to make sure that we put the likes of the Roosters to the sword. We also need to minimise the damage and make sure any losses are close losses.

Our finals start now.

 

[Kimlo]

I should also add that with differential being so critical, we need to make sure that we put the likes of the Roosters to the sword. We also need to minimise the damage and make sure any losses are close losses.

Our finals start now.

If we beat the rabbits my scars from last year are healed.

 

[LittleDavey]

If we beat the rabbits my scars from last year are healed.

I'm shuddering looking at the run home tbh. Dropping a few games coming into the finals could really knock the boys around mentally and unfortunately this is what I expect to happen.

The flip side of that obviously is if by some fortunate event, we keep winning. Wins against another solid contender tomorrow night, our Northern nemesis at home, a cold Canberra at their place and then the Storm up here...we would be absolutely flying on confidence, knowing that we'd just beaten half of the other contenders in the past couple of months.

We've already beaten the Panthers once (shh about the circumstances, don't care) and the Warriors over the ditch without our Origin stars. If we keep winning I genuinely believe we'll go on with it. That's a tough assignment with still a fair way to go until the end of the season proper, though we do have another bye in there that finally ALL our guys will get to rest up for. It could come at a really good time.

 

[McHunt]

With the Origin series in the rear-view mirror, it's time to turn our attention to the finals. 'Technically' there are fifteen teams still in contention, but realistically I'd say there are only nine teams that could win the competition. I believe in order to win a premiership it's vital to make the top four so I thought I'd break the scenario down.

Brisbane Broncos (13 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Rabbitohs (A)*, Roosters (H), Cowboys (A), Eels (H), Bye, Raiders (A), Storm (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Tom Flegler (vs. Roosters), Corey Oates, Jordan Riki (vs. Raiders)

It's a tough assignment facing the Broncos. After being snake-bitten last year, 0-6 is not out of the question. The sooner they register the first win, the better, so this Friday shapes as a pivotal contest. Their easiest game is against the Roosters and of all the teams 'technically' in contention, they are by far the most likely. Based on this season, they should win at least half those games and finish with 16 wins but we'll know more after the Rabbitohs clash.

Penrith Panthers (12 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Bulldogs (H), Sharks (H), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Cowboys (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Taylan May (Season)

The biggest challenge facing the Panthers is getting through seven weeks without any key injuries. If they can keep their best team on the paddock I can't see any reason why they can't pick up at least five wins. I can see them dropping one game against either Sharks, Storm or Eels but they should at least go 2/3. Unless they struggle, I don't see any reason why they won't just rush out their reserve grade side against the Cowboys. I'm expecting them to finish with 17 wins, comfortably inside the Top 4.

Melbourne Storm (11 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Knights (A), Eels (H), Panthers (A), Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Eliesa Katoa (vs. Eels/Panthers), Ryan Papenhuyzen (Indefinite/Season)

It's official, Melbourne are in a slump and yet they're still entrenched in the Top 4. This is one of the weakest Melbourne line-ups in years yet they just out-compete and win off the back of their champion players. By rights they should be down with the Roosters, Knights, Sea Eagles etc. and despite their best efforts they're vulnarable. Ordinarily, I'd comfortably have them finishing with 16 wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if they let a game or two slip and finish with 15 wins.

Canberra Raiders (11 Wins) - 3 Win Streak
vs. Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (H), Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Corey Harawira-Naera (Indefinite), Danny Levi (Season), Xavier Savage (vs. Broncos)

We'll get a very good indication of where the Raiders are at this Friday. The last time these two teams met, the Warriors smashed them in the back-end of the contest and spoiled the party. For this reason, they're in serious danger of being leapfrogged. They do get the luxury of three winnable home games to steady themselves but a loss to the Knights is not out of the question. I'm expecting them to win all three and take at least one game from their contenders to finish with 15 wins.

Warriors (11 Wins) - 2 Win Streak
vs. Raiders (H), Bye, Titans (A), Tigers (A), Sea Eagles (H), Dragons (H), Dolphins (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Edward Kosi (vs. Dragons), Te Maire Martin (Indefinite), Jazz Tevaga (Indefinite)

Things are looking good for the Warriors. Outside of the Raiders, they're not facing any legitimate contenders and by rights they should at least go 5-1 if not undefeated during this period. However, like when I've answered (c) far too often on a multiple choice test, I'm beginning to doubt myself. Can the Warriors nail their top four spot or will old habits die hard? I'll tentatively lock in 17 wins, but it would be a major disappointment if they missed the Top 4 from here.

Cronulla Sharks (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Cowboys (A), Knights (H), Raiders (H)

Injuries/Suspensions: Teig Wilton (TBC), Braden Hamlin-Uele (vs. Panthers), Royce Hunt (vs. Sea Eagles/Panthers), Wade Graham (TBC)

For the longest time, the Sharks seemed like a genuine lock for the Top 4. They had a fairly comfortable draw, a breezy representative period and enough big wins to give them a favourable f/a. However they've seemingly hit a ceiling and have a mental block against other contenders. They have the opportunity to rectify that in the coming weeks, but let's say it's a barrier that this team can't come across, what then? Well 13 wins which puts them in some jeopardy of missing the finals altogether. Realistically, they should at least be able to achieve one win either against the Cowboys or Raiders to make it 14 wins. It will be very interesting to see how their right edge performs against DCE/Olakauatu/Koula/Saab. Surely they can't be any worse than what we saw against the Warriors?

Parramatta Eels (10 Wins) - 1 Win Streak
vs. Cowboys (A), Storm (A), Dragons (H), Broncos (A), Roosters (H), Panthers (A), Bye

Injuries/Suspensions: Dylan Brown (vs. Dragons), Reagan Campbell-Gillard (vs. Roosters), Mika Sivo (vs. Roosters), Wiremu Greig (vs. Storm), Josh Hodgson (Season)

It has to be said, the Eels have done well to remain in content. They lost a lot of key players from last year, their initial draw was tough and they had to deal with a lot of injuries. Throw in some misbehaving players and their campaign could have easily come to a premature ending yet here they are. With that said, they have one of the toughest runs home with the only gimme being the Dragons at home. I expect they'll struggle against the Cowboys and Storm, so it'll come down to the impact Dylan Brown makes and if he's good enough to spark them. They're the team most under pressure and I expect them to draw the short straw with 13 wins.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (10 Wins) - 1 Lose Streak
vs. Broncos (H), Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Dragons (H), Knights (A), Bye, Roosters (H)

Injuries/Suspensions:

The Rabbitohs will be making up to look towards the draw. They'll get an opportunity to make a big statement with their full compliment coming back off a bye following their Origin heroics when they take on the Broncos on the Sunshine Coast. After that it should virtually be downhill skiing with the Sharks and Roosters game tossing up some potential pitfalls. As it stands, I think they'll make up one half of the grand final and they'll finally be looking to pay off this style they've been playing since 2018.

North Queensland Cowboys (10 Wins) - 4 Win Streak
vs. Eels (H), Titans (A), Broncos (H), Bye, Sharks (H), Dolphins (A), Panthers (A)

Injuries/Suspensions: Heilum Luki (vs. Titans), James Tamou (vs. Sharks), Tom Chester (Season)

The form team of the competition and while they find themselves outside of the eight, they're a genuine chance of finishing Top 4. On form they win all those upcoming games and the only deterrent maybe the bye and pressure of maintaining a 10 game win streak heading into the finals. The only time they have to travel outside of Queensland is against the Panthers who will likely be sporting a reserve grade outfit for them. If they do, I expect it to be 10 wins on the trot, with 16 wins in the end.

TL;DR Expectations
1. Panthers - 17 Wins
2. Warriors - 17 Wins
3. Rabbitohs - 16 Wins
4. Broncos - 16 Wins
5. Cowboys - 16 Wins
6. Storm - 15 Wins
7. Raiders - 15 Wins
8. Sharks - 14 Wins

9. Eels - 13 Wins

Share your ladder predictors, do you see any upsets on the horizon? Are the Broncos in trouble?

I'll have a look at the 'technically' teams next.

I love that you've thought about it this hard, but realistically I think any team could beat us and we could beat any team, including the Panthers and Storm. It really is as simple as we have to win every game, and most of all, the final one.

 

[Mick_Hancock]

I can’t see the Warriors losing another game this year. That is, after this week anyway.

 

[BroncsFan]

I can’t see the Warriors losing another game this year. That is, after this week anyway.

They've been great all year and could only see them possibly losing one of the remaining away games... or maybe slip up against raiders this weekend, but that seems doubtful.

Away games for them are titans on GC, which could be tough if they turn up, and Dolphins at Suncorp, but I suspect they win that one, as dolphins will surely be done and eyeing off mad Monday at that point.

Tigers is also away, but Wests have decided to take that one to Hamilton... geniuses that they are. I reckon Tigers could've been a slight chance if Brooks was back. They were going well for a little bit there (they beat panthers when Cleary was playing), but fell off a cliff when Api and Brooks got injured against titans.

 

[Sproj]

Random results are always thrown up.

 

[Fitzy]

We can just as easily win all of them as well. What the **** is with this pessimistic defeatist attitude. I tend to lean towards the realist side myself but like seriously we are second 20 rounds into the competition and we have the most wins out of everybody. For god sakes half our team have played origin and done exceptionally well. Let’s get around the boys aye!

 

[theshed]

OK I did the ladder predictor and I don't like it. I like it a lot better than the super pessimistic ones I was throwing out halfway through the year though.

Major assumptions - I left each win at 12 points, though points differential is going to be absolutely critical as I think a bunch of teams will finish on equal win points. Broncos to drop games against Cows, Canberra & Storm. To play devil's advocate, and based on last year, Panthers will be at least a game clear in the last round so throw their 2nd string team in against the Cows for a loss in the last round. Result:

View attachment 23092

First round finals, we play Sharkies - excellent! EXCEPT that then pits us against the loser of Penrith/Cows the following week. Assuming Penrith wins round 1 and we knock out the Cows, we then have to play the winner of Wahs/Storm after they have had a week's break...so if we win the second week, we won't make it to the big dance IMO.

Ideally, we would probably want to finish 3rd and play the Warriors (2nd) in the first week of the finals.

I’m not sure what the final ladder will look like but I am confident Cowboys aren’t finishing top 4

 

[LittleDavey]

I’m not sure what the final ladder will look like but I am confident Cowboys aren’t finishing top 4

Eels
Titans
Broncos
Bye
Sharks
Dolphins
Panthers

Winning every game left (especially if Panthers rest in the last round) is not out the realms of possibility.

They're currently only 3 wins behind us/Panthers, 2 behind Storm/Raiders, one behind Wahs/Sharks and equal with Eels and Rabbits.

I'm confident they absolutely can.

 

[Fitzy]

Eels
Titans
Broncos
Bye
Sharks
Dolphins
Panthers

Winning every game left (especially if Panthers rest in the last round) is not out the realms of possibility.

They're currently only 3 wins behind us/Panthers, 2 behind Storm/Raiders, one behind Wahs/Sharks and equal with Eels and Rabbits.

I'm confident they absolutely can.

How the **** you have them winning all of them but we are losing half of ours. WHAT?

 

[LittleDavey]

How the **** you have them winning all of them but we are losing half of ours. WHAT?

When was the last time we put 74 points on someone? Have you seen the rest of our draw?

Cows have scored 193 points in the past 5 games, that's just under 40 points a game. Have let in 57, average just over 10 points a game. Won all of them: against Penrith, Storm, Bunnies, Tigpies and Manly.

In the same timeframe we've scored 124 at an average of just under 25 points a game. Have let in 90, average 18. We won against fake contenders Sharks, and bottom 9 teams of Knights, Dolphins, Bulldogs. And lost to bottom 9 team the Titans.

They are fucking flying. I don't want to meet them in the finals. Which of their remaining games do you think they'll lose?