BHQ Gambling Association

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Ari Gold said:
Anyone take any top tryscorers or Dally M this year? Put off by the short odds on offer for the Dally M but Hurrell for top scorer @ 41 was good enough for me as the Warriors right side truly is their strength.

As mentioned previously, I think the $10 on Gutherson to top the try tally for Manly is super value.
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You're a mind reader......kinda. Was going to ask for some advice, from anyone, for a long shot bet. I've got a $10 bonus and want something juicy to put it on. I'll keep Gutherson in mind.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

3 Tournaments this week to consider.

First up is the Africa open where I'll be jumping on Hoey, Sterne and Fichardt for the moment.

Puerto Rico interests me as well.

Uihlien, Weekly and Zac Blair.

Cadillac

Hard to go past Rory, Reed and especially Bubba. He has a good record at this course and is always up around the top. Koepka worth a look as well
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

I'm leaving Africa alone.

Uihlein was interesting to me but his odds are too short.

So that just leaves Doral. I like Bubba a lot, but this course seems to play a lot harder since the re-design. Someone (Charl? Gmac?) compared this to Bay Hill and last year's winning score was only -4. You know who has a 2nd and a 3rd at Bay Hill and is best on tough courses? Well, that's the only guy I've backed this week.
 
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Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

This aint BB. Why make me play Jeopardy....

Rose?
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Harry Sack said:
This aint BB. Why make me play Jeopardy....

Rose?
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If this were jeopardy, you'd have to answer in the form a question. As in, who is Keegan Bradley.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Ari Gold said:
If this were jeopardy, you'd have to answer in the form a question. As in, who is Keegan Bradley.
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Fair point.

I was thinking Bradley but didn't think you were that big of a glutton for punishment lol. Surely he can't go as badly as last week.....
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Finally Sportsbet has put up some stats markets to bet on. Hopefully other bookmakers will follow suit at some point. The negative is they've upped the commission again, with the over/unders down to $1.85 from $1.87 in 2014 and $1.88 in 2013.

Usually I try to spread the love around with some over bets and some under bets on each team to hedge against blowouts and slogfests but the tackles have been set far too low to take the unders and there aren't enough options for hedging to be worthwhile at $1.85. In order of likelihood:

McGuire 30.5 tackles
Luke 24.5 tackles
McCullough 42.5 tackles
Lowe 24.5 tackles
G Burgess 28.5 tackles
Parker 32.5 tackles

McGuire's is way too low - he eclipsed that mark 19 times out of 25 games last year, putting up 39 and 47 against the Bunnies.
I'm getting on the first four. I think they'll all get up but the last two are too close to their 2014 medians.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

The William Hill controlled sites have yet to offer these markets. Pricks.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Art Vandelay said:
Finally Sportsbet has put up some stats markets to bet on. Hopefully other bookmakers will follow suit at some point. The negative is they've upped the commission again, with the over/unders down to $1.85 from $1.87 in 2014 and $1.88 in 2013.

Usually I try to spread the love around with some over bets and some under bets on each team to hedge against blowouts and slogfests but the tackles have been set far too low to take the unders and there aren't enough options for hedging to be worthwhile at $1.85. In order of likelihood:

McGuire 30.5 tackles
Luke 24.5 tackles
McCullough 42.5 tackles
Lowe 24.5 tackles
G Burgess 28.5 tackles
Parker 32.5 tackles

McGuire's is way too low - he eclipsed that mark 19 times out of 25 games last year, putting up 39 and 47 against the Bunnies.
I'm getting on the first four. I think they'll all get up but the last two are too close to their 2014 medians.
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Just created my sportsbet account. Markets down to $1.77 lol
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Harry Sack said:
Just created my sportsbet account. Markets down to $1.77 lol
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Yeah I saw that. Luke and McCullough's tackles have increased as well. There will be more opportunities though. They've already put up a Watmough market (32.5) for tomorrow so hopefully they'll keep it up for the whole season this time instead of just rd 1, Origin and finals.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Art Vandelay said:
Yeah I saw that. Luke and McCullough's tackles have increased as well. There will be more opportunities though. They've already put up a Watmough market (32.5) for tomorrow so hopefully they'll keep it up for the whole season this time instead of just rd 1, Origin and finals.
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I assume you're on the Watmough bet?

Where do they get their stats from, do you know? Another site has McGuire making 31 tackles.....
 
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Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Harry Sack said:
I assume you're on the Watmough bet?

Where do they get their stats from, do you know? Another site has McGuire making 31 tackles.....
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They use NRL.com stats but they usually settle before the stats get revised the next day - which can either hurt or help you.

I didn't end up getting on the Watmough bet, but lost on McGuire and Luke as the second half blow-out and Bennett keeping McGuire's minutes way down hurt me. BLowe and Macca got up though. Centrebet has started offering stats bets as well - won my 50 free bet on Radradra's metres last night. I haven't checked but that might mean Tom Waterhouse has them as well. Last night Farah was at 30.5 tackles on Sportsbet - I loaded up heavily and am now partially hedging since it's blown out to 42.5 tackles. Clydsdale on the under at 40.5 looks good to me as well. I figure Sione goes to fullback and Kidley goes to hooker so he may see even less time than when Randell was on the bench. Other than that I'm trying to stay cautious for the first couple of rounds until patterns emerge and I know how many minutes everyone gets (especially the backrowers for the Titans and Tigers).
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Art Vandelay said:
They use NRL.com stats but they usually settle before the stats get revised the next day - which can either hurt or help you.

I didn't end up getting on the Watmough bet, but lost on McGuire and Luke as the second half blow-out and Bennett keeping McGuire's minutes way down hurt me. BLowe and Macca got up though. Centrebet has started offering stats bets as well - won my 50 free bet on Radradra's metres last night. I haven't checked but that might mean Tom Waterhouse has them as well. Last night Farah was at 30.5 tackles on Sportsbet - I loaded up heavily and am now partially hedging since it's blown out to 42.5 tackles. Clydsdale on the under at 40.5 looks good to me as well. I figure Sione goes to fullback and Kidley goes to hooker so he may see even less time than when Randell was on the bench. Other than that I'm trying to stay cautious for the first couple of rounds until patterns emerge and I know how many minutes everyone gets (especially the backrowers for the Titans and Tigers).
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Unless, of course, Gidley and Roberts get injured.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Art Vandelay said:
They use NRL.com stats but they usually settle before the stats get revised the next day - which can either hurt or help you.

I didn't end up getting on the Watmough bet, but lost on McGuire and Luke as the second half blow-out and Bennett keeping McGuire's minutes way down hurt me. BLowe and Macca got up though. Centrebet has started offering stats bets as well - won my 50 free bet on Radradra's metres last night. I haven't checked but that might mean Tom Waterhouse has them as well. Last night Farah was at 30.5 tackles on Sportsbet - I loaded up heavily and am now partially hedging since it's blown out to 42.5 tackles. Clydsdale on the under at 40.5 looks good to me as well. I figure Sione goes to fullback and Kidley goes to hooker so he may see even less time than when Randell was on the bench. Other than that I'm trying to stay cautious for the first couple of rounds until patterns emerge and I know how many minutes everyone gets (especially the backrowers for the Titans and Tigers).
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Yeah just had a look, awesome. Thinking about jumping on Guerra over 28.5.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

All over Ennis @ over 36.5 tackles.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Harry Sack said:
All over Ennis @ over 36.5 tackles.
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I was lucky enough to get on Ennis a couple of days ago when he was at 32.5 tackles. They reframed the markets pretty quickly after that because the work experience kid at sportsbet put Gallen at 27.5 and Farah at 30.5. My week so far:

- McCullough over 42.5
- McGuire over 30.5
- Lowe over 24.5
- Luke over 24.5
- Mannah under 27.5
- Radradra over 110.5m
- Clydesdale under 40.5
- Farah over 30.5
- Tedesco over 89.5m
- Douglas over 27.5
- Sironen over 19.5
- Gallen over 27.5
- Fifita over 27.5
- Ennis over 32.5
- Papalii under 30.5
- Fensom under 50.5
- Fensom over 44.5

Losing McGuire and Clydesdale by 1 tackle had me fuming Saturday afternoon but it's been smooth sailing since. 34% profit for the week thus far.
 
Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Art Vandelay said:
I was lucky enough to get on Ennis a couple of days ago when he was at 32.5 tackles. They reframed the markets pretty quickly after that because the work experience kid at sportsbet put Gallen at 27.5 and Farah at 30.5. My week so far:

- McCullough over 42.5
- McGuire over 30.5
- Lowe over 24.5
- Luke over 24.5
- Mannah under 27.5
- Radradra over 110.5m
- Clydesdale under 40.5
- Farah over 30.5
- Tedesco over 89.5m
- Douglas over 27.5
- Sironen over 19.5
- Gallen over 27.5
- Fifita over 27.5
- Ennis over 32.5
- Papalii under 30.5
- Fensom under 50.5
- Fensom over 44.5

Losing McGuire and Clydesdale by 1 tackle had me fuming Saturday afternoon but it's been smooth sailing since. 34% profit for the week thus far.
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Well done. Liking anything tonight?
 
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