BHQ Gambling Association

[ningnangnong]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

@ningnangnong Today Aru is favourite, rightly so, Contador's injury will determine if break has a chance. But there's a chance it might, and given the mountain finish, it means there's a few riders who offer value:

Stefano Pirazzi @ 17.5
Ruben Fernandez @ 81
Igor Anton @ 85
Andrey Amador @ 200
Maciej Paterski @ 201

Focus heavily on Movistar as I expect them to be most active in the break. Paterski lost a lot of time yesterday, which indicates to me he might have been saving energy for today.

Cheers mate, I've just completely splurged on those five - laid down a total of $2 all up!

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

HF/FT - Any other result @7 ( this being a draw at half or full time)

That sucks. Save for Molo that was a nice winner.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

@ningnangnong Obvious sprint stage tonight. Greipel a massive favourite and I think vulnerable. I've gone:

Sacha Modolo E/W @ 7 (William Hill Sites)
Nicola Ruffoni Win @ 100 and Top 3 @ 11.5

Ruffoni more of a top 3 candidate than a win candidate but nice odds for the Top 3. Modolo has a strong train and that should be more useful than on previous stages.

PS - 16 days to go!

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

@ningnangnong Obvious sprint stage tonight. Greipel a massive favourite and I think vulnerable. I've gone:

Sacha Modolo E/W @ 7 (William Hill Sites)
Nicola Ruffoni Win @ 100 and Top 3 @ 11.5

Ruffoni more of a top 3 candidate than a win candidate but nice odds for the Top 3. Modolo has a strong train and that should be more useful than on previous stages.

PS - 16 days to go!

Those last 2 are on Betfair obviously. As far as the overall race goes, what are the chances of Uran winning it? What does back and lay mean? Back is to win right so doesn't that mean lay is your backing them to not win? Never gone down the lay path....

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Those last 2 are on Betfair obviously. As far as the overall race goes, what are the chances of Uran winning it? What does back and lay mean? Back is to win right so doesn't that mean lay is your backing them to not win? Never gone down the lay path....

So Harry has never layed before... you're missing out on all the pink!

You are right. Laying is not to achieve the stated goal of the market. Think of it basically as the side of Betfair that allows you to be the Bookmaker. Some people do it to "cash out" and others just do it because they really want to oppose someone or frame their own markets. Laying is mostly the activity of bots. Most of the money offered to back (i.e. laid) is from bots.

And umm, in order to win, there would need to be an accident where Contador, Aru, Porte and Landa all broke legs but Uran somehow comes out fine.

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

So Harry has never layed before... you're missing out on all the pink!

You are right. Laying is not to achieve the stated goal of the market. Think of it basically as the side of Betfair that allows you to be the Bookmaker. Some people do it to "cash out" and others just do it because they really want to oppose someone or frame their own markets. Laying is mostly the activity of bots. Most of the money offered to back (i.e. laid) is from bots.

And umm, in order to win, there would need to be an accident where Contador, Aru, Porte and Landa all broke legs but Uran somehow comes out fine.

Gotcha. Reason I was asking is because he's $44 to back but $250 to lay. Hence the confusion.

 

[Huge]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

I've had 80 bucks on the Broncos versus Newcastle at what I consider attractive odds ...2.71. That was a week ago, they've tightened in a little to 2.60. I think they are realistically about even money.

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

@ningnangnong Obvious sprint stage tonight. Greipel a massive favourite and I think vulnerable. I've gone:

Sacha Modolo E/W @ 7 (William Hill Sites)
Nicola Ruffoni Win @ 100 and Top 3 @ 11.5

Ruffoni more of a top 3 candidate than a win candidate but nice odds for the Top 3. Modolo has a strong train and that should be more useful than on previous stages.

PS - 16 days to go!

Gotta learn to get on these when I see them. Got distracted by something else and by the time I came back to it I'd missed it. Boo. Good luck though.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

So it wasn't even a sprint yesterday.

today I expect break to win but most of the obvious choices are too short. Carlos Bettancur is value at 44 though.

Russia now second fav for Eurovision at 4s. Can't believe I didn't get on when it was 44 :(

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

So it wasn't even a sprint yesterday.

today I expect break to win but most of the obvious choices are too short. Carlos Bettancur is value at 44 though.

Russia now second fav for Eurovision at 4s. Can't believe I didn't get on when it was 44 :(

$7 is too short for you?

Golf is tough this week but I'll have to take my boy Weis. Zach Johnson is a bit of a no brainer I think. A dabble on Willet as well I think.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Yes, $7 too short of Michael Matthews.

Unless you meant Russia, but they are like $4 I think. I had a little bit on them each way but I think I'd rather they just place instead of win so I don't have to rue the missed opportunity.

Leaving the golf alone so I can lose more on Keegan next week.

 

[Dexter]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Very keen on a horse at Doomben on Saturday race 9 Staviva. It's currently $13 with Ubet and anywhere from 10 to 12 on other sites

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

So it wasn't even a sprint yesterday.

today I expect break to win but most of the obvious choices are too short. Carlos Bettancur is value at 44 though.

Comes second when I didn't go E/W. What a ****.

Cunego and Landa tonight. Not convinced the uphill sprinters like Lobada, Ullisi and Matthews will be there at the end so value is in opposing them.

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Comes second when I didn't go E/W. What a ****.

Cunego and Landa tonight. Not convinced the uphill sprinters like Lobada, Ullisi and Matthews will be there at the end so value is in opposing them.

If it makes you feel any better, I backed him E/W.

 

[Harry Sack]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Got a $5 bonus bet [MENTION=1917]Ari Gold[/MENTION]. What's the tip tonight, if any?

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

None tonight. Typically speaking I hate sprint stages and it's rare that I bet on them and generally rare that I win on them. Nothing tomorrow either as I abhor time trials as well.

Sunday night is the next tip night as it's a solid chance for a breakaway.

 

[Ari Gold]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

With the absence of a Martin and Kung injured yesterday there's actually a bit of volatility in tonight's stage.

Kiriyenka @ 17 looks a standout.

 

[Dexter]

Re: BHQ Gambling Association - DO NOT LINK TO BETTING WEBSITES

Traceys Angel today Gold Coast R 5