Broncos Realistic Premiership Window

[HarryAllan7]

I read an article on Fox Sports today where they went through each team and estimated based on how the squad is formed and shaping up, the likely window for a premiership that each team had...

Link: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...s/news-story/687d268cf98474cf686ebd5ee0cb6f2e

The content of the article is absolute garbage and the analysis of each team is embarrassingly rudimentary and lacks any insight at all, but the idea is still an interesting one. Realistically, when do we think the Broncos might be ready to legitimately challenge for the title given our current turnaround trajectory, squad composition and youngsters coming through the reserve grades?

I'd expect that we should improve significantly next year, probably even see ourselves back in the finals if all things go according to plan, but it is likely to be another several years before we have a serious chance at a premiership... A couple more good offseasons along with Mozer and Mam coming into first grade and players like Cobbo (and Paix?) starting to hit their potential might make 2024 a realistic target?

Interested to see how the guys with real insight into our juniors see things and how long we might be waiting before we're back up in the elite category (assuming all things go according to plan, for discussion purposes)

 

[Spoon]

23, 24

 

[kman]

With the direction that our club is going at the moment I believe we will be in the top 8 next year and comfortably. Reynolds will make a huge difference to this team with his control and true kicking game. I'm backing us for a 5th or 6th spot, but it's 2023 that our team will be in top 4, with our spine shaping from our youngest that will be getting time needed in Qcup.

 

[lynx000]

I hate to be a pesssimist, but I do not see us winning a premiership with Kev as coach, I would love to be wrong about this.

 

[theshed]

I read an article on Fox Sports today where they went through each team and estimated based on how the squad is formed and shaping up, the likely window for a premiership that each team had...

Link: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...s/news-story/687d268cf98474cf686ebd5ee0cb6f2e

The content of the article is absolute garbage and the analysis of each team is embarrassingly rudimentary and lacks any insight at all, but the idea is still an interesting one. Realistically, when do we think the Broncos might be ready to legitimately challenge for the title given our current turnaround trajectory, squad composition and youngsters coming through the reserve grades?

I'd expect that we should improve significantly next year, probably even see ourselves back in the finals if all things go according to plan, but it is likely to be another several years before we have a serious chance at a premiership... A couple more good offseasons along with Mozer and Mam coming into first grade and players like Cobbo (and Paix?) starting to hit their potential might make 2024 a realistic target?

Interested to see how the guys with real insight into our juniors see things and how long we might be waiting before we're back up in the elite category (assuming all things go according to plan, for discussion purposes)

I agree with you, I think we will have a peak in 2023 as it will be Reynolds second year, some of the younger guys like Cobbo will have improved and matured, and we may have found a 6 and dummy half option. However even with this peak I can’t see us doing better than prelims at best.

After that it all hangs on how we prepare for life after Adam but there are reasons to be optimistic. I think we may be destined for an eels type run (as in, in the finals consistently but not a real contender).

 

[Accept]

Impossible to predict in a sport that is chronically known for it's sweeping changes at the drop of a hat. Injuries also play a massive part in the team's fortunes and those are impossible to foresee.

The Broncos should fare a little better next year. They still won't challenge the big guns and will still be on the end of some lopsided scores. I highly doubt that they'll grab a playoff spot next season but hopefully they can somewhat challenge for one.

As for a premiership window, they've hit some pretty low points over the past three years and it'll take time to recover from that and another Brisbane club will certainly make life a little bit harder. I'm thinking they could contend by 2028 if there are no more fuckups by the head office. Maybe a premiership by 2035 if the cards fall in our favor.

 

[BroncsFan]

I think it's too difficult to tell at the moment... but I've got it well shut. I am pretty pessimistic though.

Our spine is non-existent, outside of Reynolds, and that aspect is basically the gauge of how likely a team is to win it all.

We've got some promising kids coming through, but will they push on and become top tier (because that's what you need to become top 4) and will we be able to keep them from the poachers?

And if they do become elite will we manage our cap space appropriately to put a team around them and will the coaching be of sufficient standard to have the team primed and ready.

When putting that all together and comparing it to the current state of play:

- 3/4 of the 'potential' based spine (Cobbo, Mam, Reynolds & Mozer) is under 20 and those under 20 have played probably less than 20 ISC games in their potential spine position combined
- the cap is a mess for at least next year, but R&R will have to start re-signing and recruiting soon enough... so we will get an idea of how they go about managing it (looks promising so far, but turnover of the squad could be quite significant).
- coaching is up in the air at present. Seems to be leaning heavily on the mental side (emotional investment, culture, attitude, etc.) rather than tactical nous... so yet to be seen if the coaching staff can combine the two

From that aspect I've got the window well and truly shut for the near future.

However that can quickly change if Cobbo, Mam, Mozer/Paix, Piakura, Riki, TC, Willison, Flegler, etc. explode in form and realise their potential... but that seems like a lot of things needing to go right to open that window up within the next 2-3yrs.

 

[Johnny92]

Next year I think we'll make the 8 if everyone stays healthy but with the current squad anything is possible we pushed Penrith who won the comp twice this year and would have won those games if we had Reynolds in the team.
23 we have a chance to actually be contenders if we can sort a 9 and have Cobbo polished at 1 (which he should be)
After reynolds retires the replacement for him is the key to our future success because all the other pieces of the puzzle should be in place with experience, consistency, leaders and a team that knows how to win.

 

[Morkel]

Yeah, peak in 2023 / 2024, whether there is a legit premiership window there remains to be seen.

 

[The Strapper]

I read an article on Fox Sports today where they went through each team and estimated based on how the squad is formed and shaping up, the likely window for a premiership that each team had...

Link: https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nr...s/news-story/687d268cf98474cf686ebd5ee0cb6f2e

The content of the article is absolute garbage and the analysis of each team is embarrassingly rudimentary and lacks any insight at all, but the idea is still an interesting one. Realistically, when do we think the Broncos might be ready to legitimately challenge for the title given our current turnaround trajectory, squad composition and youngsters coming through the reserve grades?

I'd expect that we should improve significantly next year, probably even see ourselves back in the finals if all things go according to plan, but it is likely to be another several years before we have a serious chance at a premiership... A couple more good offseasons along with Mozer and Mam coming into first grade and players like Cobbo (and Paix?) starting to hit their potential might make 2024 a realistic target?

Interested to see how the guys with real insight into our juniors see things and how long we might be waiting before we're back up in the elite category (assuming all things go according to plan, for discussion purposes)

Can’t see us winning the comp for a couple of years at least.
The big elephant in the corner question which neither club will publicly acknowledge though is who will win a comp first us or the dolphins?

 

[Kimlo]

Impossible to predict, as soon as we look good Vlandy's will make sweeping rule changes to nullify our strengths.

Although if I wasn't being cynical I'd say 2023+ is our window. How long that window is depends on managment of the roster and Kev keeping things together.

 

[McHunt]

Continuing from what I said in the other thread, the wildcard next season is Covid transitioning to an endemic pathogen. It's impossible to predict what will happen next year. The most likely scenario is it will rip through the NRL, affecting all teams at varying stages. Being young and fit, you wouldn't expect too many severe cases, but even optimistically you would have to be prepared for the bulk of your squad to lose a month of fitness. Better that happens early in the season. But there's still an outside chance the virus might mutate into a weaker, but perhaps more infectious strain. In which case, the natural immunity conferred might render it no worse than your average bad flu season. That's what we're hoping for.

Ironically, the last two seasons were the opposite. The players were kept in a bubble, unable to socialize, and focused on fitness. They probably didn't even get a cold.

Bringing it back to the Broncos, this means the relative depth of our squad is likely to be severely tested. The notion that our most senior player, who's already challenged by his age, will play a full season and deliver us to glory is in that light even more wishful thinking.

But, recalling the last couple of games of 2021, things weren't looking so bad for the baby Broncos. I believe we can beat any team on the day, especially a Panthers side gutted of its killer spine. I see us winning many games, with and without Adam Reynolds, but having him around the group is going to be a massive asset.

I expect to see us around the 8, and making the finals, contigent on how battered around we get relative to our opponents. Our depth, I think, is inexperienced, but fairly solid in comparison to the pack, once you get beyond the marquee names. We'll be okay.

As for the title, no. We don't even have a five eighth, hooker or fullback to go with our brand new halfback. We don't even have one other back written in ink with any confidence. Just a handful of names that might work.

Generally a side that can win a title has a spine that would not look out of place in the Kangaroos, albeit with a chorus of protest from other grand final contenders.

 

[1910]

The two things that kill or make a premiership; depth and spine.

Broncos lack both. They’re starting to build a 17 but anything below that is seriously lacking.

Spine lacks the obvious hooker and fullback.

The spine as it is can improve to 8-10th spot.

Until you have depth you can slot in for a month you won’t be a top four premiership side.

 

[Sproj]

The two things that kill or make a premiership; depth and spine.

Broncos lack both. They’re starting to build a 17 but anything below that is seriously lacking.

Spine lacks the obvious hooker and fullback.

The spine as it is can improve to 8-10th spot.

Until you have depth you can slot in for a month you won’t be a top four premiership side.

These are good points though I think the depth is looking ok with James, Lee, Jensen, Piakura, Arthars, , Mead, etc all in the wings. The spine is an ever present issue though that's for sure.

 

[lynx000]

Can I preface my following comments with the observation that I really like KW as a human being, I think he is a good bloke and I think he can coach, I just do not believe he has the capability to be an elite coach. I therefore do not believe it is likely that he will get a premiership with the Broncos.

I would love him to be a raging success, I am now in the camp that I do not think it will happen.

In my view there are currently a very limited number of elite coaches in the game.

Since 1997 the only coaches to win multiple premierships are Bennett, Bellamy, Robinson and Hasler. I would rank the first three as elite coaches and Hasler just below that.

The other coaches that have won a premiership in that timeframe have either inherited a squad on the cusp of premiership success, or through a confluence of circumstances have been able to jag a premiership, but have not been able to replicate that success or in some cases have not been able to maitain a coaching career.

This list includes:
Malcolm Reilly
Chris Anderson
Michael Hagan
Ricky Stuart
Johnny Lang
Steve Folkes
Tim Sheens
Michael Maguire
Paul Green
Shane Flanagan
Ivan Cleary.

Of that list, perhaps Cleary and possibly Flanagan have the opportunity to increase their number of premierships. You would think with the squad he currently has, anything less than one more premiership for Penrith would constitute a fairly significant failure for Cleary.

The contrast between Walters and Robinson is fairly stark. Walters did not have a lot of success at Catalans and indeed 2010 was a disaster season for both Walters and the club. Robinson took over in 2011/12 and in both years took the club to preliminary finals. He then shifts to the NRL and wins a premiership in his first year coaching. The rest is history.

Walters despite applying for a number of coaching roles in the NRL could not get a gig (including with us).

If Walters was to become an elite coach, he would have done so well before now. That places him back with the pack of guys that can coach. He does not have a sufficiently balanced, experienced or talented squad at the present time to enable him to be one of the coaches that jags a premiership due to the quality of the squad at their disposal. Unfortunately, I cannot see him surviving long enough for such a squad to be assembled.

The question then becomes who is the potential next younger coach that may be able to become elite? In my view one of the more likely prospects is Kristian Woolf.

I hope that for once some proper succession planning is being done and management have some idea of where they are going in the future with the coaching role and who they have in mind to take over from Walters if that ultimately proves to be necessary.

 

[1910]

Can I preface my following comments with the observation that I really like KW as a human being, I think he is a good bloke and I think he can coach, I just do not believe he has the capability to be an elite coach. I therefore do not believe it is likely that he will get a premiership with the Broncos.

I would love him to be a raging success, I am now in the camp that I do not think it will happen.

In my view there are currently a very limited number of elite coaches in the game.

Since 1997 the only coaches to win multiple premierships are Bennett, Bellamy, Robinson and Hasler. I would rank the first three as elite coaches and Hasler just below that.

The other coaches that have won a premiership in that timeframe have either inherited a squad on the cusp of premiership success, or through a confluence of circumstances have been able to jag a premiership, but have not been able to replicate that success or in some cases have not been able to maitain a coaching career.

This list includes:
Malcolm Reilly
Chris Anderson
Michael Hagan
Ricky Stuart
Johnny Lang
Steve Folkes
Tim Sheens
Michael Maguire
Paul Green
Shane Flanagan
Ivan Cleary.

Of that list, perhaps Cleary and possibly Flanagan have the opportunity to increase their number of premierships. You would think with the squad he currently has, anything less than one more premiership for Penrith would constitute a fairly significant failure for Cleary.

The contrast between Walters and Robinson is fairly stark. Walters did not have a lot of success at Catalans and indeed 2010 was a disaster season for both Walters and the club. Robinson took over in 2011/12 and in both years took the club to preliminary finals. He then shifts to the NRL and wins a premiership in his first year coaching. The rest is history.

Walters despite applying for a number of coaching roles in the NRL could not get a gig (including with us).

If Walters was to become an elite coach, he would have done so well before now. That places him back with the pack of guys that can coach. He does not have a sufficiently balanced, experienced or talented squad at the present time to enable him to be one of the coaches that jags a premiership due to the quality of the squad at their disposal. Unfortunately, I cannot see him surviving long enough for such a squad to be assembled.

The question then becomes who is the potential next younger coach that may be able to become elite? In my view one of the more likely prospects is Kristian Woolf.

I hope that for once some proper succession planning is being done and management have some idea of where they are going in the future with the coaching role and who they have in mind to take over from Walters if that ultimately proves to be necessary.

Woolfe was interesting at Townsville, 67% win rate, one Grand Final but couldn't go further and win the thing despite having an NRL side most weeks.

He's a very intense guy and had a lot of players leaving, over him- think Ricky.

He may have mellowed a bit at St.Helens. ISC probably wasn't for him; the key to a good ISC coach is to understand they are not professional and making them train five nights a week just gets everyone off-side. He was very you'll be fulltime- which you can do in the SL but hard when guys are laying concrete all day.

 

[Sproj]

Woolfe was interesting at Townsville, 67% win rate, one Grand Final but couldn't go further and win the thing despite having an NRL side most weeks.

He's a very intense guy and had a lot of players leaving, over him- think Ricky.

He may have mellowed a bit at St.Helens. ISC probably wasn't for him; the key to a good ISC coach is to understand they are not professional and making them train five nights a week just gets everyone off-side. He was very you'll be fulltime- which you can do in the SL but hard when guys are laying concrete all day.

On that point though, if he had essential an NRL team most weeks wouldn’t that mean most of them could train five nights a week?

 

[007]

Next year can be top 6, at best squeeze in 4th. Currently as it stands with roster shuffling, we need to grab some depth next year to make a crack in 23/24. The depth is the biggest problem we need to solve. Some good toilers have been picked up already but needs to continue.

If the Haas situation turns sour - that will set us back a bit.