If Queensland lose this series...

[Coxy]

...it will be the biggest upset in the history of Rugby League.

In Queensland's favour:
- Australian back line
- Australian front row
- the 2 form fullbacks in the competition (Slater, Hunt)
- the Lockyer, Thurston, Smith combination that has dominated Origin and Test football for 3 years
- NSW to have a new halves pairing yet again
- NSW to have numerous new faces in the backline
- NSW have no decent recognised front rowers

Only thing NSW have in their favour is they have the form hooker in the competition in their number 9, Michael Ennis, and the Australian back row who have played together for a bit over a year now.
And that Queensland will leave out the form halfback of the competition.

With NSW forming so many new combinations, Queensland should flog them in game 1 in Melbourne. And knowing how the NSW selectors work, there'll be wholesale changes.

That should ensure Queensland finishes the series off in game 2 in Sydney, albeit in a closer game.

Game 3, who cares, but being the only game in Brisbane it should be a flogging and a 3-0 clean sweep.

The only hope NSW have is to take out Smith, Lockyer, Thurston, Inglis or Hodges (in that order of preference) in the opening exchanges of game 1. Take out Smith or Lockyer and Queensland are stuffed.

That simply has to be Bellamy's game plan. But can he bring himself to take out his key club man? I think not. So he'll go after Lockyer.

Watch for NSW to pick some nuffy in the front row that nobody expected with the sole mission of taking Lockyer's leg out.

If he fails, it's Queensland 3-0.

 

[Bucking Beads]

NSW have zero chance of winning even if QLD have a few injuries.. QLD showed last year they can win without Lockyer. Even if NSW are on top in the forwards the QLD backs are good enough to win it from inside there own 40.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

Take out Smith or Lockyer and Queensland are stuffed.

LOL! just like they took out prince last year and went on to wi.... oh wait they didnt. thurston to the rescue

 

[Coxy]

Because Smith was able to take on the whole responsibility of organisation. He was in career best form last year. It's not like Thurston had to take on extra responsibilities, apart from kicking. But even then Smith took on more of that role too.

Thurston's a match winner, for sure. But he's not going to lose you a game if he's not there.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

regardless, i agree with ur sentiment that there is no way we can lose this series. having said that, QLD will 100% produce a below par effort at some stage (we always do, usually after a win) so hopefully we win that first one, have our bad game in NSW then smash them up here. If we lose, theres something wrong

 

[ethos]

I hope that Queensland don't take NSW lightly this year. Complacency and a lazy attitude in Origin leads to failure.

NSW will come out all guns blazing and it wouldn't surprise me to see them win game one. And, despite Queensland's dominance over the last three seasons, a lot of the matches have been pretty close and have come down to a moment of brilliance in the dying stages. There really hasn't been a great deal in it.

 

[mrslong]

You people don't have a clue, we do not EVER win when we are the favourites. As QLDers we need to have our 'backs to the wall mentality' (of course this is always advisable against the gay blews).

They have a very strong back row, their backline is young and eager to please and they have some very good havles, not to be taken lightly what so ever. Careful people, before you jinx the band and they break up! :evil:

At the moment it already appears we're fighting against the judiciary and the refs. [icon_shady

 

[Coxy]

Oh please. Only people with small dick syndrome think we need to be underdogs. It's a myth.

Like Thurston's halfback prowess.

 

[Flutterby]

NSW have nothing to lose - that's when teams usually pull off miracle wins. I myself am concerned about Qld in this series, even though we are by far the superior team.

 

[Hamm.0]

LOL! just like they took out prince last year and went on to wi.... oh wait they didnt. thurston to the rescue

He's so over=rated that guy... [eusa_doh

 

[lynx000]

I would also sound a note of caution as well Coxy. NSW will be desperate having lost the last 3 series. Added to that, if (and it is a big if) they pick the right side I think it could still be a very close series. They have a heap of top class back rowers who are in really good form. If some the of the Qld players carry over their Broncos habit of going missing in the second half, we could strike trouble.

 

[rnabokov]

I would also sound a note of caution as well Coxy. NSW will be desperate having lost the last 3 series. Added to that, if (and it is a big if) they pick the right side I think it could still be a very close series. They have a heap of top class back rowers who are in really good form. If some the of the Qld players carry over their Broncos habit of going missing in the second half, we could strike trouble.

I agree with you. Especially if NSW pick the right back rowers - e.g. Gallen, Creagh and Waterhouse, and have them running at Lockyer, Thurston and wider, at our centres, particularly close to our line.

As well, I feel they will have their smaller men testing Civo and Price around the rucks all night.

Their backs of course lack our class, but they have speed to burn, especially if Jennings gets picked in the centres.

 

[mick]

I don't think it will be the biggest upset in history. Regardless of everything else, 1995 will always be a stand-alone winner in this category.

State of Origin, quite frankly, is never about the teams on paper. I think Qld can and will lose this series solely for the fact that I see the NSW selectors are finally getting rid of the "old guard" and putting some young blokes in there. The team will not look as good "on paper" as their team from the last three years. But IMO it's going to prove damn hard to beat.

I've been tipping a NSW series victory in 09 for some time now. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, but SOO has a habit of providing surprises, and the result is NEVER a foregone conclusion. Ever.

 

[rnabokov]

For mine, the Maroons bench will prove the difference - either way.

As so many people say, top level matches are won and lost in the forwards. No matter how good our backs are, the forwards need to lay that platform down for them, and at Origin level in particular, that means for the full 80 minutes.

Civo and Price are really going to need a good rest, and their replacements MUST stand up and be counted.

 

[OXY-351]

Only thing NSW have in their favour is they have the form hooker in the competition in their number 9, Michael Ennis

Do you think Ennis will be selected ahead of Farrah though? I thought Farrah has outplayed Ennis on the occasions they've met this year. Either way, I agree they'll have the form hooker of the comp because Farrah and Ennis are both in better for than Smith so far this year.

 

[Professor47]

Dont you guys think ALL the pressure is on QLD in a way though? Sure NSW don't want to be the first to lose four in a row, but like the thread states, if QLD lose this series, well... WOW. (Considering the 1-10 are fit) Obviously injuries can play a HUGE part in origin. eg. Look at our 2006 game 3 team. Wesser and Hannay? How we won with these 2 in the team I will never know.

 

[Dexter]

Only thing NSW have in their favour is they have the form hooker in the competition in their number 9, Michael Ennis

Do you think Ennis will be selected ahead of Farrah though? I thought Farrah has outplayed Ennis on the occasions they've met this year. Either way, I agree they'll have the form hooker of the comp because Farrah and Ennis are both in better for than Smith so far this year.

I hope they pick Ennis, the guy is a first class head case. Constantly asking the trainers if he is going all right and how he is looking. Ever wonder why he has been to so many clubs.?
He will be so worried about himself the rest of the team will suffer.
If he ever gets his shit together he would be brilliant.