Santa
State of Origin Rep
- Jun 30, 2020
- 7,963
- 14,026
The 2nd and 3rd best attacking teams in the comp. Will be a good test for our defence, but I think this might be a high scoring game either way.
PRE-GAME [Round 11, 2024] Broncos vs Sea Eagles
- Thread starter ningnangnong
- Start date
- Status
Dazza 92
NRL Captain
- Oct 13, 2014
- 3,092
- 3,937
Manlys biggest issue is they can't seem to close out games. Now, i've not watch a whole lot of 80 minutes of Manly, mostly replays, but the trend is obvious even when watching those.
The only team that concedes more tries from inside their own half than Manly is Parramatta, and you've just seen what Brisbane did to them.
It's a area of the game that we are close to leading the comp in.
However, I found the differences in these two charts of some interest.
This first one looks at the average margin per minute for Manly this season, compared to prior seasons up to 10 rounds of the 2024 campaign.
They have one of, if not the best, scorign margins in the comp...for the first 30 minutes of each game so far.
Then it literally falls off a cliff. Why? Is this the time when Siebold makes his first round of forward interchanges? If so, then the guys coming on just aren't up to the standards of those replaced. However, do note how closly grouped each trend line is to the others.
This method of playing is basically Manly's DNA. Now the same chart for Brisbane.
I mean, look at the historical difference now!
But, looking at 2024s curve, it just keeps going up for the majority of the game. However it's at the 50 minute mark where it turns exponetial.
I'm pretty certain thats one Payne Haas coming on for his 2nd stint.
So for me, i'd not be surprised to see Manly and us trade blows for the first 30 minutes, even for Manly to be leading at that stage.
But, from the 50 minute mark, Brisbane go up another gear and, if these charts are any guide, take over the game.
Anyway, some things i'll be looking for.
Shout out to The Rugby League Eye Test.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2024/05/13/why-cant-manly-maintain-a-lead/
The only team that concedes more tries from inside their own half than Manly is Parramatta, and you've just seen what Brisbane did to them.
It's a area of the game that we are close to leading the comp in.
However, I found the differences in these two charts of some interest.
This first one looks at the average margin per minute for Manly this season, compared to prior seasons up to 10 rounds of the 2024 campaign.
They have one of, if not the best, scorign margins in the comp...for the first 30 minutes of each game so far.
Then it literally falls off a cliff. Why? Is this the time when Siebold makes his first round of forward interchanges? If so, then the guys coming on just aren't up to the standards of those replaced. However, do note how closly grouped each trend line is to the others.
This method of playing is basically Manly's DNA. Now the same chart for Brisbane.
I mean, look at the historical difference now!
But, looking at 2024s curve, it just keeps going up for the majority of the game. However it's at the 50 minute mark where it turns exponetial.
I'm pretty certain thats one Payne Haas coming on for his 2nd stint.
So for me, i'd not be surprised to see Manly and us trade blows for the first 30 minutes, even for Manly to be leading at that stage.
But, from the 50 minute mark, Brisbane go up another gear and, if these charts are any guide, take over the game.
Anyway, some things i'll be looking for.
Shout out to The Rugby League Eye Test.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2024/05/13/why-cant-manly-maintain-a-lead/
Santa
State of Origin Rep
- Jun 30, 2020
- 7,963
- 14,026
That's some pretty cool analysis! That variation of our average margin really shows the ups and downs of the last few years. The main difference from last year is the drop off near the end which is a shame.
Manly's point margin seems much more consistent though. They probably score points more evenly, where as we seem to pile on points in chunks.
I think some of those long range tries by Manly will be blunted a bit by the loss of Turbo and Saab, but they still have strike and speed.
If we defend well, we should win easily.
- Jan 25, 2014
- 44,774
- 34,153
Madden will play.
Mozer training with the main group. Billy still training in a red bib with the reserves. He's not playing.
Mozer training with the main group. Billy still training in a red bib with the reserves. He's not playing.
- Sep 6, 2013
- 57,563
- 70,452
This has been a problem for us all year.
Santa
State of Origin Rep
- Jun 30, 2020
- 7,963
- 14,026
We did better against Parra.
- Aug 25, 2018
- 18,397
- 31,669
So you're loving the two interchanges we need to keep Billy in employment?
NSW stables
NRL Player
- May 3, 2019
- 2,640
- 7,108
But honestly, parra had no attacking threat. Other than brown, their whole backline is lucky to be in nrl.
Their forward pack is decent, and for most part I think the beat Brisbane in that area.
I am still yet to see the bronco defence stand up to a good attack playing well.
As I previously said, Melbourne, penrith and roosters have put 30+ on us. A top 4 team doesn't allow that.
Santa
State of Origin Rep
- Jun 30, 2020
- 7,963
- 14,026
Yea but in all 3 of those games they took advantage of injuries (and theyve all conceded 30+ thenselves). But yea I agree in principle - our defence needs to be better, but I think we're getting there.
Edit: I though Parra played really well that game.
FACTHUNT
NRL Player
- May 25, 2021
- 1,260
- 4,100
I think Parker had a cat 1 HIA in NSW Cup on the weekend so can't play. Not certain though.
But yeah, they get Olakuaatu and Brown back.
Bucking Beads
International Captain
- Mar 5, 2008
- 24,638
- 7,947
The Sailor injury will be particularly painful as he’s our guy at fullback during origin while Walsh is out.
- Jan 25, 2014
- 44,774
- 34,153
We will have to play Walsh and hope to god he doesn't get injured.
We play one game without our Origin players and Sailor should be back by then.
- Jul 28, 2016
- 25,108
- 36,685
Manofoneway
NRL Player
- May 22, 2022
- 2,289
- 5,491
I think you are making a few assumptions - needing two or using two interchanges are pretty glaring at this point.
Again the whole forum is kind of over your stance on this. Literally nobody agrees with you, not even the experts. Just cut your losses, accept Billy as a son of a Broncos great! He's got a great work ethic, is here on peanuts and provides good value for money. I'm glad you have given up on your love affair of the likes of Turpin and Paix but you need to take the Billy Walters dartboard down and just move on!
- Status
