PRE-GAME [Round 11, 2024] Broncos vs Sea Eagles

[Santa]

No Saab and no Turbo makes this a tough ask for the Sea Eagles.

For Brisbane, the focus now needs to be to shut down Manlys right edge.

Thats where man mountain Haumole Olakau’atu lives...

But both these sides are 2 of the most expansive footy teams in the comp.

But it doesn't necessarily mean end to end football...

The 2nd and 3rd best attacking teams in the comp. Will be a good test for our defence, but I think this might be a high scoring game either way.

 

[Dazza 92]

Manlys biggest issue is they can't seem to close out games. Now, i've not watch a whole lot of 80 minutes of Manly, mostly replays, but the trend is obvious even when watching those.

The only team that concedes more tries from inside their own half than Manly is Parramatta, and you've just seen what Brisbane did to them.

It's a area of the game that we are close to leading the comp in.

However, I found the differences in these two charts of some interest.

This first one looks at the average margin per minute for Manly this season, compared to prior seasons up to 10 rounds of the 2024 campaign.

They have one of, if not the best, scorign margins in the comp...for the first 30 minutes of each game so far.

Then it literally falls off a cliff. Why? Is this the time when Siebold makes his first round of forward interchanges? If so, then the guys coming on just aren't up to the standards of those replaced. However, do note how closly grouped each trend line is to the others.

This method of playing is basically Manly's DNA. Now the same chart for Brisbane.

I mean, look at the historical difference now!

But, looking at 2024s curve, it just keeps going up for the majority of the game. However it's at the 50 minute mark where it turns exponetial.

I'm pretty certain thats one Payne Haas coming on for his 2nd stint.

So for me, i'd not be surprised to see Manly and us trade blows for the first 30 minutes, even for Manly to be leading at that stage.

But, from the 50 minute mark, Brisbane go up another gear and, if these charts are any guide, take over the game.

Anyway, some things i'll be looking for.

Shout out to The Rugby League Eye Test.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2024/05/13/why-cant-manly-maintain-a-lead/

 

[Bish]

I’d like to see a complete performance but not expecting it.

It’s Mozer time. If he can’t get in now, he never will.

Broncos win, but I don’t think it’ll be a huge margin.

 

[Santa]

Manlys biggest issue is they can't seem to close out games. Now, i've not watch a whole lot of 80 minutes of Manly, mostly replays, but the trend is obvious even when watching those.

The only team that concedes more tries from inside their own half than Manly is Parramatta, and you've just seen what Brisbane did to them.

It's a area of the game that we are close to leading the comp in.

View attachment 27791

However, I found the differences in these two charts of some interest.

This first one looks at the average margin per minute for Manly this season, compared to prior seasons up to 10 rounds of the 2024 campaign.

View attachment 27792
They have one of, if not the best, scorign margins in the comp...for the first 30 minutes of each game so far.

Then it literally falls off a cliff. Why? Is this the time when Siebold makes his first round of forward interchanges? If so, then the guys coming on just aren't up to the standards of those replaced. However, do note how closly grouped each trend line is to the others.

This method of playing is basically Manly's DNA. Now the same chart for Brisbane.

View attachment 27793
I mean, look at the historical difference now!

But, looking at 2024s curve, it just keeps going up for the majority of the game. However it's at the 50 minute mark where it turns exponetial.

I'm pretty certain thats one Payne Haas coming on for his 2nd stint.

So for me, i'd not be surprised to see Manly and us trade blows for the first 30 minutes, even for Manly to be leading at that stage.

But, from the 50 minute mark, Brisbane go up another gear and, if these charts are any guide, take over the game.

Anyway, some things i'll be looking for.

Shout out to The Rugby League Eye Test.
https://www.rugbyleagueeyetest.com/2024/05/13/why-cant-manly-maintain-a-lead/

That's some pretty cool analysis! That variation of our average margin really shows the ups and downs of the last few years. The main difference from last year is the drop off near the end which is a shame.

Manly's point margin seems much more consistent though. They probably score points more evenly, where as we seem to pile on points in chunks.

I think some of those long range tries by Manly will be blunted a bit by the loss of Turbo and Saab, but they still have strike and speed.

If we defend well, we should win easily.

 

[Super Freak]

Madden will play.

Mozer training with the main group. Billy still training in a red bib with the reserves. He's not playing.

 

[Sproj]

If we defend well, we should win easily.

This has been a problem for us all year.

 

[Sproj]

Will we see a new record for the amount of dropped balls in a game?

 

[Fernando]

Brad Parker and Jaxson Paulo are quite handy replacements for Manly and they get Brown back.

 

[Santa]

This has been a problem for us all year.

We did better against Parra.

 

[McHunt]

Nope, Billy is our 9 and Smoothy is our 14. Outside of injuries and state of origin Mozer is third fiddle for this year.

So you're loving the two interchanges we need to keep Billy in employment?

 

[NSW stables]

We did better against Parra.

But honestly, parra had no attacking threat. Other than brown, their whole backline is lucky to be in nrl.

Their forward pack is decent, and for most part I think the beat Brisbane in that area.

I am still yet to see the bronco defence stand up to a good attack playing well.

As I previously said, Melbourne, penrith and roosters have put 30+ on us. A top 4 team doesn't allow that.

 

[Santa]

But honestly, parra had no attacking threat. Other than brown, their whole backline is lucky to be in nrl.

Their forward pack is decent, and for most part I think the beat Brisbane in that area.

I am still yet to see the bronco defence stand up to a good attack playing well.

As I previously said, Melbourne, penrith and roosters have put 30+ on us. A top 4 team doesn't allow that.

Yea but in all 3 of those games they took advantage of injuries (and theyve all conceded 30+ thenselves). But yea I agree in principle - our defence needs to be better, but I think we're getting there.

Edit: I though Parra played really well that game.

 

[FACTHUNT]

Brad Parker and Jaxson Paulo are quite handy replacements for Manly and they get Brown back.

I think Parker had a cat 1 HIA in NSW Cup on the weekend so can't play. Not certain though.

But yeah, they get Olakuaatu and Brown back.

 

[Fernando]

According to Badel, Ben Te Kura's season is over with a foot injury and Sailor is out 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury

 

[Bucking Beads]

The Sailor injury will be particularly painful as he’s our guy at fullback during origin while Walsh is out.

 

[Super Freak]

The Sailor injury will be particularly painful as he’s our guy at fullback during origin while Walsh is out.

We will have to play Walsh and hope to god he doesn't get injured.

We play one game without our Origin players and Sailor should be back by then.

 

[BroncsFan]

According to Badel, Ben Te Kura's season is over with a foot injury and Sailor is out 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury

FAAAAAAARRRRRKKKKKK

 

[Manofoneway]

So you're loving the two interchanges we need to keep Billy in employment?

I think you are making a few assumptions - needing two or using two interchanges are pretty glaring at this point.

Again the whole forum is kind of over your stance on this. Literally nobody agrees with you, not even the experts. Just cut your losses, accept Billy as a son of a Broncos great! He's got a great work ethic, is here on peanuts and provides good value for money. I'm glad you have given up on your love affair of the likes of Turpin and Paix but you need to take the Billy Walters dartboard down and just move on!