Round 22: this week's guide to staying in the Eight

[McHunt]

Round 22 is a litmus test against the team most directly challenging our position in the 8. If we can't compete against the Panthers, we don't belong in the 8. Simple as that.

This isn't meant to be a form guide of any kind; it's only about the maths of making the playoffs.

These are our goals, in order of priority, in solidarity with Coach Tony:

1. Make the playoffs. (Likely)
2. Improve on 2018 (Mathemetically possible, but very unlikely)
3. Finish higher than Coach Wayne. (Mathematically possible, but very unlikely)

The teams realistically threatening our place in the 8 are the SHARKS, PANTHERS, TIGERS & WARRIORS. Yes, the KNIGHTS are stil a mathematical threat.

A win against the PANTHERS this weekend will elevate us to 7th POSITION. A loss will keep us at 8th but only if both the SHARKS & TIGERS lose, and the WARRIORS lose (or win with a points differential coming into play).

Here's your weekend guide. Bold team winning favours us.

THURSDAY

Eagles (H) v Tigers: CRITICAL.

FRIDAY

Titans (H) v Eels: MOSTLY IRRELEVANT. We're unlikely to overtake the Eels.

Broncos (H) v Panthers: CRUCIAL. If we can't win this, we don't belong in the 8.

SATURDAY

Knights (H) v Cowboys: SOMEWHAT RELEVANT. A win to the NQ will finish the Knights' season.

Storm (H) v Raiders: IRRELEVANT

Rabbitohs (H) v Bulldogs: RELEVANT only if you want to see Coach Wayne lose.

SUNDAY

Roosters (H) v Warriors: CRITICAL

Sharks (H) v Dragons: CRITICAL

 

[Horseheadsup]

Can't see Tigers beating the silver tails, though anything is possible.

 

[McHunt]

Can't see Tigers beating the silver tails, though anything is possible.

The Tigers can lose and still make the playoffs, but it's still better for us if they do. We can really only afford to drop one game, and that's likely to be against the Rabbitohs next week.

 

[Accept]

Improving or equalling last year's 15-9 record is impossible but finishing 6th is possible but very unlikely. So is making the playoffs, never mind winning in the first round.

The likes of Parra, Penrith, Cronulla (even Newcastle) are a level above Brisbane whose position is flattered by victories over lightweights.

Credit has to be given though that they have managed to find themselves in this position when two months ago it looked impossible. Their shock win over Cronulla has really kickstarted their season somewhat.

On the whole though, this has been a shocking season as the gap between Brisbane and the good sides is wider than it's ever been. The difference between good and bad in this comp is embarrassing and it makes a mockery of the salary cap.

 

[McHunt]

Improving or equalling last year's 15-9 record is impossible but finishing 6th is possible but very unlikely. So is making the playoffs, never mind winning in the first round.

Sorry, I omitted the numbers relevant to last year. Although we hold the same ladder position as this time last year, we have a worse point differential, and the gap between us and the top of the table is staggering.

Most notably: our attack in 2019 has been woeful.

Round 25 2018:
Points: 32
Premiership leaders' points: 34 (Gap = 2)
Points Differential: +56
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 181
Ladder Position: 6

Round 22 2018:
Points: 26
Premiership leaders' points: 32 (Gap = 6)
Points Differential: -11 (For: 448. Against: 458)
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 163
Ladder Position: 8

Round 22 2019:
Points: 21
Premiership leaders' points: 36 (Gap = 15)
Points Differential: -52 (For: 357 Against: 409)
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 281
Ladder Position: 8

 

[lynx000]

Just pointing out, we have not actually played Round 22 yet, so what you have as our position after Round 22 for the current season is our position after 21 Rounds.

 

[McHunt]

Just pointing out, we have not actually played Round 22 yet, so what you have as our position after Round 22 for the current season is our position after 21 Rounds.

Ah yes. Here is the revised comparison. The change of table leader (lower points diff) made the biggest difference.

Sorry, I omitted the numbers relevant to last year. Although we hold the same ladder position as this time last year, we have a worse point differential, and the gap between us and the top of the table is staggering.

Most notably: our attack in 2019 has been woeful.

Round 25 2018:
Points: 32
Premiership leaders' points: 34 (Gap = 2)
Points Differential: +56
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 140
Ladder Position: 6

Round 21 2018:
Points: 26
Premiership leaders' points: 32 (Gap = 6)
Points Differential: -6 (For: 418. Against: 424)
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 163
Ladder Position: 8

Round 21 2019:
Points: 21
Premiership leaders' points: 36 (Gap = 15)
Points Differential: -52 (For: 357 Against: 409)
Premiership leaders' Points Differential: 281
Ladder Position: 8

 

[McHunt]

SATURDAY

Knights (H) v Cowboys: SOMEWHAT RELEVANT. A win to the NQ will finish the Knights' season.

Taumalolo out. Knights will probably get this.

 

[Scorchie]

Can I just say, this reality where we need to calculate how to make the eight is like Henjak all over again. May this be the last year in decades its needed.

 

[McHunt]

Can I just say, this reality where we need to calculate how to make the eight is like Henjak all over again. May this be the last year in decades its needed.

It might interest you to know our current best case scenario is finishing 5th.

 

[McHunt]

Thanks Manly

 

[lynx000]

Thanks Manly

Tick off one. Plus they temporarily knocked Souths out of the top 4.

 

[WASSHHH]

Question to the forum:

Given the top 8 as it stands and that the top 4 is pretty much down to a race in 5, should we make it, who do we want to play in week 1?

Who don’t we want to play in week 1?

 

[McHunt]

Question to the forum:

Given the top 8 as it stands and that the top 4 is pretty much down to a race in 5, should we make it, who do we want to play in week 1?

Who don’t we want to play in week 1?

I reckon if you were to ask the converse - which team every other team like to play - I bet they'd all say us.

 

[Sproj]

I’d like to play Souths, the press conferences would be a lot of fun before the Broncs get smashed.

 

[Maddy1to9]

Oh boy, we all might be in a ride with tonight’s game against Panthers. Fox might bring in A.Griffin & Gould will always be available for C-9 in the respective commentary boxes. I reckon to piss off us Broncos fans more, Fox might add dumb fuckin Anasta to the panel as well.

I don’t fuckin mind or care those fuckwids as long as we walk away with the win. Love to see a big egg faced fat **** Gould post tonight’s game.

 

[McHunt]

Eels defeating Titans puts them 6 points clear of the Panthers. We will have to win every game from now on to make 6th.

 

[lynx000]

Eels defeating Titans puts them 6 points clear of the Panthers. They're almost certain to be in the top 6. Our best position, if we beat the Panthers tonight, will be 7th.

Thanks for the effort you are going to, to track all of this, much appreciated.