Round 23: this week's guide to staying in the Eight

[McHunt]

Round 22's defeat of the PANTHERS proved we are finals contenders, albeit challenging the lowest rungs of the Eight. We improved our position on the ladder and lost the Warriors along the way.

On the downside, we also lost two matchwinners in TPJ and Turps.

Round 23 is the GRUDGE ROUND where COTY 2018 gets to stick to the Super Coach.

.................................................................................................................................

This isn't a form guide: it's only about the maths of making the playoffs.

These are our goals, in order of priority, in solidarity with Coach of the Year 2018:

1. Make the playoffs. (Very possible)

2. Improve on 2018 (Mathematically possible by some metrics, eg. Ladder Position and progress through finals.)

3. Finish higher than Super Coach Wayne. (Mathematically possible)

.................................................................................................................................

WEEKEND GUIDE: ROUND 23

The teams realistically threatening our place in the 8 are the SHARKS, PANTHERS, KNIGHTS & TIGERS. Losing to SOUTHS will drop us to 8th if either PENRITH or CRONULLA win or 9th if BOTH win. See below for a breakdown.

NB: Favourable outcome in BOLD

THURSDAY

EELS (H) v BULLDOGS: MAYBE RELEVANT.
If Parramatta lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Manly and Souths. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4TH isn't up for grabs.

FRIDAY

COWBOYS (H) v PANTHERS CRITICAL.
Penrith will leapfrog us if they win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position.

BRONCOS (H) v RABBITOHS CRITICAL.
Toughest opponent left. Not a must win, but a loss will leave us at the mercy of other results. Plus there's the grudge to settle. Also if Souths lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Parramatta and Manly. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4th isn't up for grabs.

SATURDAY

SHARKS (H) v WARRIORS: CRITICAL.
Cronulla will leapfrog us if they win, as well as Penrith if they also win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position. If both Cronulla and Penrith win, we will fall to 9th if we lose to Souths.

TIGERS (H) v KNIGHTS: CRITICAL.
Wests and Newcastle are both still in the race. Tough to pick, this one. Either way is both good and bad for us. Would be nice to see the back of the Knights.

DRAGONS (H) v ROOSTERS: IRRELEVANT

SUNDAY

STORM (H) v TITANS: IRRELEVANT

RAIDERS (H) v SEA EAGLES: MAYBE RELEVANT.
If Manly lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Parramatta and Souths. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4th isn't up for grabs.

.................................................................................................................................

TABLE AFTER ROUND 22 AND REMAINING GAMES

Points, Diff, next games. Teams in bold are currently higher on the table. (autopredicted points)

BRONCOS: 23, -40. Souths (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A) (25)

IMMINENT THREAT
SHARKS: 22, 8. Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A) (26)
PANTHERS: 22, -75. Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H) (26)

LOOMING THREAT
KNIGHTS: 20, 15. Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A) (24)
TIGERS: 20, -64. Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H) (22)

TERMINATED
WARRIORS: 19, 98. Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A) (19)

.................................................................................................................................

AUTOPREDICTED PREMIERSHIP LADDER (END ROUND 22)
(based on team currently higher on ladder winning)

7. SHARKS
8. PANTHERS
9. BRONCOS
10. KNIGHTS
11. TIGERS

We need to beat the Eels/Rabbitohs or for an upset against the Panthers or Sharks.
Best chance of the latter is in the final round.

.................................................................................................................................

 

[Jedhead]

Round 22's defeat of the PANTHERS proved we are finals contenders, albeit challenging the lowest rungs of the Eight. We improved our position on the ladder and lost the Warriors along the way.

On the downside, we also lost two matchwinners in TPJ and Turps.

Round 23 is the GRUDGE ROUND where COTY 2018 gets to stick to the Super Coach.

.................................................................................................................................

This isn't a form guide: it's only about the maths of making the playoffs.

These are our goals, in order of priority, in solidarity with Coach of the Year 2018:

1. Make the playoffs. (Very possible)

2. Improve on 2018 (Mathematically possible by some metrics, eg. Ladder Position and progress through finals.)

3. Finish higher than Super Coach Wayne. (Mathematically possible)

.................................................................................................................................

WEEKEND GUIDE: ROUND 23

The teams realistically threatening our place in the 8 are the SHARKS, PANTHERS, KNIGHTS & TIGERS. Losing to SOUTHS will drop us to 8th if either PENRITH or CRONULLA win or 9th if BOTH win. See below for a breakdown.

NB: Favourable outcome in BOLD

THURSDAY

EELS (H) v BULLDOGS: MAYBE RELEVANT.
If Parramatta lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Manly and Souths. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4TH isn't up for grabs.

FRIDAY

COWBOYS (H) v PANTHERS CRITICAL.
Penrith will leapfrog us if they win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position.

BRONCOS (H) v RABBITOHS CRITICAL.
Toughest opponent left. Not a must win, but a loss will leave us at the mercy of other results. Plus there's the grudge to settle. Also if Souths lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Parramatta and Manly. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4th isn't up for grabs.

SATURDAY

SHARKS (H) v WARRIORS: CRITICAL.
Cronulla will leapfrog us if they win, as well as Penrith if they also win. We will have to beat Souths to hold 7th position. If both Cronulla and Penrith win, we will fall to 9th if we lose to Souths.

TIGERS (H) v KNIGHTS: CRITICAL.
Wests and Newcastle are both still in the race. Tough to pick, this one. Either way is both good and bad for us. Would be nice to see the back of the Knights.

DRAGONS (H) v ROOSTERS: IRRELEVANT

SUNDAY

STORM (H) v TITANS: IRRELEVANT

RAIDERS (H) v SEA EAGLES: MAYBE RELEVANT.
If Manly lose next three games and Brisbane win next three, we could finish 5th or 6th, depending also on Parramatta and Souths. Parramatta plays Manly in the final round, so 4th isn't up for grabs.

.................................................................................................................................

TABLE AFTER ROUND 22 AND REMAINING GAMES

Points, Diff, next games. Teams in bold are currently higher on the table. (autopredicted points)

BRONCOS: 23, -40. Souths (H), Eels (H), Bulldogs (A) (25)

IMMINENT THREAT
SHARKS: 22, 8. Warriors (H), Raiders (H), Tigers (A) (26)
PANTHERS: 22, -75. Cowboys (A), Roosters (A), Knights (H) (26)

LOOMING THREAT
KNIGHTS: 20, 15. Tigers (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A) (24)
TIGERS: 20, -64. Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sharks (H) (22)

TERMINATED
WARRIORS: 19, 98. Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A) (19)

.................................................................................................................................

AUTOPREDICTED PREMIERSHIP LADDER (END ROUND 22)
(based on team currently higher on ladder winning)

7. SHARKS
8. PANTHERS
9. BRONCOS
10. KNIGHTS
11. TIGERS

We need to beat the Eels/Rabbitohs or for an upset against the Panthers or Sharks.
Best chance of the latter is in the final round.

.................................................................................................................................

Thanks for this @McHunt always look forward to your weekly deconstruction of the round.

If I might add though there is one game you marked wrong. You've said the Storm/Titans game is irrelevant. I think the chance of a Qld side beating these cheating pricks is always of much interest. The thought of the Tits doing them after their loss to Canberra is quite improbable, but I'd love to see their faces if it happened.

 

[McHunt]

Should also have mentioned: POINTS DIFFERENTIAL IS NOT A FACTOR (except in the unlikely case of another drawn match between two teams who can't kick field goals under pressure for shit).

In other words, whether we scrape through by Golden Point or win by a drubbing, our table position will be unaffected. WE JUST NEED TO WIN.

For this reason - if the scoreline isn't already blown out - we should be attempting an EARLY FIELD GOAL to ENSURE A RESULT, ideally before half time.

 

[McHunt]

Thursday: so far so good. These are the two teams we most likely need to beat to make the playoffs.

 

[Scorchie]

Who’d have thought the Dogs would be sitting two points out of the eight [emoji23]

 

[McHunt]

Who’d have thought the Dogs would be sitting two points out of the eight [emoji23]

They do this just about every year.

 

[Renegade]

u da real mvp mchunt

 

[McHunt]

Another result in our favour. Penrith’s loss means we will remain in the Eight regardless of the result against Souths.

 

[McHunt]

Tonight's loss to Souths - as widely expected - means we drop to 8th if Cronulla wins tomorrow, otherwise we hold 7th.

 

[McHunt]

Sharks leapfrog us to take 7th place. They’re likely to finish there.

 

[Foordy]

Sharks leapfrog us to take 7th place. They’re likely to finish there.

i'm not so sure about that ...

I think we can win our last 2 games/

I think the Sharks will win 1 out of their two. I'm tipping them to lose to the Raiders next week and beat the Tigpies in the final round

 

[McHunt]

i'm not so sure about that ...

I think we can win our last 2 games/

I think the Sharks will win 1 out of their two. I'm tipping them to lose to the Raiders next week and beat the Tigpies in the final round

You might be right. They might get done by the Tigers if tonight’s match is anything to go by. Didn’t see that coming.

 

[WASSHHH]

You might be right. They might get done by the Tigers if tonight’s match is anything to go by. Didn’t see that coming.

Also can’t see the Sharks beating the Raiders - I think the Raiders are probably being overlooked by many as a genuine premiership contender this year.

Just going about their business, staying in the top 4, beating the heavyweights and still not really being mentioned.

Unless the wheels fall off (which is always a chance), they could really do some damage in the finals.

 

[tommy]

Also can’t see the Sharks beating the Raiders - I think the Raiders are probably being overlooked by many as a genuine premiership contender this year.

Just going about their business, staying in the top 4, beating the heavyweights and still not really being mentioned.

Unless the wheels fall off (which is always a chance), they could really do some damage in the finals.

The wheels always seem to fall off for Canberra in the finals.

 

[Jedhead]

I think the damage Canberra will do will be immense. Whoever they draw from the Rorters or the Storm will be the ones who will miss out on the big prize as they will either knock them out or leave them so busted that the other team sitting on the the other side of the draw will stroll through a la Bradbury.

 

[McHunt]

The SEA EAGLES and EELS are now locked into the 8, regardless of remaining matches.

The BULLDOGS (!), SHARKS, BRONCOS, TIGERS, and KNIGHTS are fighting for 7th and 8th. It's getting VERY COMPLICATED. We have to win one of the next two matches to have any chance.

 

[The Strapper]

True but I really can’t see either the bulldogs or knights a realistic chance.
I think the last two spots will come from the other 3.

 

[pagey]

Also can’t see the Sharks beating the Raiders - I think the Raiders are probably being overlooked by many as a genuine premiership contender this year.

Just going about their business, staying in the top 4, beating the heavyweights and still not really being mentioned.

Unless the wheels fall off (which is always a chance), they could really do some damage in the finals.

I'm on the raiders wagon , I'm hoping they go all the way.