SPOILER The dynasty begins: The Brisbane Broncos are winning the 2024 NRL Premiership

Santa

Santa

State of Origin Rep
Jun 30, 2020
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So I've never done something like this before, but after doing the maths I feel we should start celebrating what is a foregone conclusion.

Being realistic, I don't see the possibility of us losing any game in 2024 (besides the last round to the Storm after we rest the whole team for finals). All our guns are a year older/wiser/stronger, and all the players we lost, while they did a great job, were overrated and holding us back.

The usual suspects will be rounding off the top 4 (Sharks only in there because of their easy run), with a decent battle for the 8th spot.

Broncos/Panthers grand final where we get out revenge!

Tigers for the spoon again...

Apologies if I've now spoilt the whole 2024 season for you, but at least you can now book your grand final accommodation early.


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Santa said:
I think Penrith will miss Crichton more then anything. So underrated for what he does for that team.
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I agree, he was IMMENSE in the GF and a lot of amazing work he does goes almost unnoticed. I didn't like him but I've come around, he is a brilliant player and they will definitely miss the work he does and the threat he poses out on that edge.
 
LittleDavey said:
I agree, he was IMMENSE in the GF and a lot of amazing work he does goes almost unnoticed. I didn't like him but I've come around, he is a brilliant player and they will definitely miss the work he does and the threat he poses out on that edge.
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He'll be more likeable now he's not at Penrith
 
I want to see how we cope without Capewell before I get cocky.

We weren't quite good enough to see off the Panthers, but we were right in the contest. Now take away Flegler, Capewell, Palasia and Farnworth and are we better? That's the question.
 
McHunt said:
I want to see how we cope without Capewell before I get cocky.

We weren't quite good enough to see off the Panthers, but we were right in the contest. Now take away Flegler, Capewell, Palasia and Farnworth and are we better? That's the question.
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Flegler and Palasia are easily replaceable. I think Flegler especially was helped a lot by who was around him. Capewell's experience and versatility is a big loss, but we might also improve a bit in our defence with someone new. We'll miss Farnworths meters and try scoring close to the line, but Authars/Oates will be getting more opportunities to score without him.

In conclusion, we'll be fine. Might not even need to be that much better next year as I think Penrith will lose a lot without Crichton. Everyone else is too far behind.
 
Penrith also has to go to England for the world club challenge.

St Helens never quite recovered from the reverse trip this season and ultimately got beaten in the prelim, I wonder if something like that might happen with Penrith next season. Crichton is a huge, huge loss for them, perhaps even bigger than Herbie for us. Leniu also takes away some of their ability to maintain the forward firepower when Leota and JFH go off. We on the other hand gain Willison (if he can stay fit), he provides us with a new dimension.
 
Santa said:
Flegler and Palasia are easily replaceable. I think Flegler especially was helped a lot by who was around him. Capewell's experience and versatility is a big loss, but we might also improve a bit in our defence with someone new. We'll miss Farnworths meters and try scoring close to the line, but Authars/Oates will be getting more opportunities to score without him.

In conclusion, we'll be fine. Might not even need to be that much better next year as I think Penrith will lose a lot without Crichton. Everyone else is too far behind.
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I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic - not like last year when we'd spiraled into shit at the end of the season - but the edge has definitely come off (for me) since losing Capewell.

On top of the realignment we're faced with the Vegas circus to kick off the season. I suspect that will be as disruptive as Origin but I can't predict whether they'll come back on a high or with a hangover. Like Origin. But whichever the case, it will make it harder to get a measure of where we're at.

I also fear we'll return from the States with big hit injuries, again like Origin, because that's what the crowd is paying to see. They'll all be showing off.
 
McHunt said:
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic - not like last year when we'd spiraled into shit at the end of the season - but the edge has definitely come off (for me) since losing Capewell.

On top of the realignment we're faced with the Vegas circus to kick off the season. I suspect that will be as disruptive as Origin but I can't predict whether they'll come back on a high or with a hangover. Like Origin. But whichever the case, it will make it harder to get a measure of where we're at.

I also fear we'll return from the States with big hit injuries, again like Origin, because that's what the crowd is paying to see. They'll all be showing off.
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I'm with you for all of this, my concerns also. Capewell is definitely a loss, of course moreso for his off field presence and leadership but right now if we lose Riki or Piakura, we are in a lot of trouble. Even if we don't, is Piakura ready to be consistently good across essentially 30 rounds? I doubt it.

Then, not only do we have whatever fatigue, etc that Vegas will bring, we will lose a lot to origin this year - Carrigan, Walsh, Haas, Cobbo, Staggs (likely) and possibly Mam (most likely 18th man at least). Do we have the depth to cover these guys? Maybe but probably not like last year. This is on top of no Herbie, Flegs, Capewell, Palasia and likely Sailor anymore.

We could be looking at:

1. Arthars
2. Oates
3. Hoeter
4. Mariner
5. Leota
6. Madden
7. Reynolds
8. Willison
9. Walters
10. Baker
11. Piakura
12. Riki
13. Hetherington

14. Mozer/Smoothy
15. Jensen
16. Taupau
17. Te Kura/Hunt
 
Sproj said:
Penrith also has to go to England for the world club challenge.

St Helens never quite recovered from the reverse trip this season and ultimately got beaten in the prelim, I wonder if something like that might happen with Penrith next season. Crichton is a huge, huge loss for them, perhaps even bigger than Herbie for us. Leniu also takes away some of their ability to maintain the forward firepower when Leota and JFH go off. We on the other hand gain Willison (if he can stay fit), he provides us with a new dimension.
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I think Crichton becomes a decent sized loss, because Tago didn't seem to come back as the same top flight centre he was before he got injured.... Crichton was able to slot in on the left or right and be an absolute rock in defence, whilst providing X factor and strike.

I think I read somewhere (probably on Reddit) that Tago doesn't use modern medicine or something?

He had a pec or calf injury last year didn't he?? and just did not seem to come back 100%... if it is true in regards to limiting his rehabilitation and recovery then it could be a big factor in where his career ends up.

They may not have been all that concerned about losing Crichton, because Tago looked a serious talent last year... but he doesn't seem like the player that can automatically replace him now.

It also sounds like Taylan May is very open to moving away from penrith... but they seem to have a conveyor belt of talent coming through... so losing role players may not be a huge issue for them for as long as Cleary is there.
 
Sproj said:
I'm with you for all of this, my concerns also. Capewell is definitely a loss, of course moreso for his off field presence and leadership but right now if we lose Riki or Piakura, we are in a lot of trouble. Even if we don't, is Piakura ready to be consistently good across essentially 30 rounds? I doubt it.

Then, not only do we have whatever fatigue, etc that Vegas will bring, we will lose a lot to origin this year - Carrigan, Walsh, Haas, Cobbo, Staggs (likely) and possibly Mam (most likely 18th man at least). Do we have the depth to cover these guys? Maybe but probably not like last year. This is on top of no Herbie, Flegs, Capewell, Palasia and likely Sailor anymore.

We could be looking at:

1. Arthars
2. Oates
3. Hoeter
4. Mariner
5. Leota
6. Madden
7. Reynolds
8. Willison
9. Walters
10. Baker
11. Piakura
12. Riki
13. Hetherington

14. Mozer/Smoothy
15. Jensen
16. Taupau
17. Te Kura/Hunt
Click to expand...
The big difference this season is I (we) have more faith the staff knows what it's doing.

As fans we always want to throw money at last year's stars. And now we're chocked with them.
The club, on the other hand, has to cut costs. They need to pay unders for next year's stars.
We don't know who they are. But the club does. They've been training these kids as opposition for a number of years.

So maybe if the coaching staff thinks we can afford to lose Capewell, Palasia, Flegler etc, maybe we can. But as fans, we can't possibly know that. We can only judge the staff.
 
Sproj said:
I'm with you for all of this, my concerns also. Capewell is definitely a loss, of course moreso for his off field presence and leadership but right now if we lose Riki or Piakura, we are in a lot of trouble. Even if we don't, is Piakura ready to be consistently good across essentially 30 rounds? I doubt it.

Then, not only do we have whatever fatigue, etc that Vegas will bring, we will lose a lot to origin this year - Carrigan, Walsh, Haas, Cobbo, Staggs (likely) and possibly Mam (most likely 18th man at least). Do we have the depth to cover these guys? Maybe but probably not like last year. This is on top of no Herbie, Flegs, Capewell, Palasia and likely Sailor anymore.

We could be looking at:

1. Arthars
2. Oates
3. Hoeter
4. Mariner
5. Leota
6. Madden
7. Reynolds
8. Willison
9. Walters
10. Baker
11. Piakura
12. Riki
13. Hetherington

14. Mozer/Smoothy
15. Jensen
16. Taupau
17. Te Kura/Hunt
Click to expand...
Not to forget Kevvie's comments on resting players around origin... so a team like what you've shown above might make an appearance in weeks after an origin game as well.

I'm not sure we lose as many players as what you're suggesting though.

The definites are Patty and Haas. Staggs is NSW so good luck making that squad with their Sydney-centric mindset, Cobbo lost his spot last year after game 1 and will need to win it back.

Walsh should be in origin, but if Ponga is available then he'll be directly competing with the Dally M winner for the spot. It's probably either him, Ezra or Dearden fighting for the 18th jersey though.
 
McHunt said:
I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic - not like last year when we'd spiraled into shit at the end of the season - but the edge has definitely come off (for me) since losing Capewell.

On top of the realignment we're faced with the Vegas circus to kick off the season. I suspect that will be as disruptive as Origin but I can't predict whether they'll come back on a high or with a hangover. Like Origin. But whichever the case, it will make it harder to get a measure of where we're at.

I also fear we'll return from the States with big hit injuries, again like Origin, because that's what the crowd is paying to see. They'll all be showing off.
Click to expand...
Yea we do have to time our run well again and try and get points on the ladder early. We play most of the "hard" teams in the first 5-6 weeks. If we can win most of them, we should be in a good position for the rest of the year.
 
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