PRE-GAME Round 4 - Warriors vs Broncos

[Sproj]

Lowrie??

 

[Big Pete]

Watching a replay of the Warriors/Eels game.

Tough game to really gauge as the first half played out superbly for the Warriors. They had 63% of the ball, their completion rate was 96% (compared to 68 and 61% in their first two games) and they've been able to take advantage of some very soft defence from the Eels.

I've been fairly impressed with their forward pack so far. In particular, I really think Matulino has wound back the clock and has been very close to his 2011 form which was a key ingredient in their charge to the finals. With the likes of Mannering, Hoffman, Lillyman, Vatuvei, Lisone etc. in support the forwards are really going to have to assert themselves early otherwise the Broncos will find themselves in trouble.

Chad Townsend was really impressive too. I think he's one of the most inconsistent players in the game Townsend but against the Eels he laid on two tries in the first half and just about set up a third before he was taken out by Hopoate. Out of all the spine players, I thought he was the best by a fair margin and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate that on Sunday.

Meanwhile SJ continues his unhappy start to the season. He had the odd flashes of brilliance, taking a horrible pass from Leuluai and not missing a step at all to keep the set rolling but at least two or three of his kicks have been marked in-goal and he hasn't really offered a whole lot. Would hate to knock a player like him given his history against us but I think it's imperative that we force him into kicking to our wingers because it's an area that he struggles with.

Just about to get into the second-half and it appears that Klein is doing his best to even things up and give the Eels the rub of the green. Parra actually put a fairly good set on the Warriors line but Lolohea claimed a pretty difficult Norman grubber and turned it into a half-break for his side and I believe they score soon off the back of it. If I notice anything else, I'll write about it here.

Interested to get [MENTION=1917]Ari Gold[/MENTION]'s thoughts on the Warriors so far. Strengths + Weaknesses etc.

 

[Alec]

2 JONATHAN WRIGHT

This is the way to beat them. You want a winger worse than Maranta? Here you go, on a silver platter.

 

[Brent81]

I've been thinking about that warriors team.

I might be wrong but I really don't rate their pack. With the exeption of Matulino and Mannering.

Without Hurrell and Tomkins their backline is a little underwhelming.

If we contain SJ I reckon we win....

 

[Brent81]

I've been thinking about that warriors team.

I might be wrong but I really don't rate their pack. With the exeption of Matulino and Mannering.

Without Hurrell and Tomkins their backline is a little underwhelming.

If we contain SJ I reckon we win....

Lest I be misinterpreted I don't think their pack is terrible, but its not all 120kg islanders who are lightening over the ground....Lillyman is servicable but not scary, Thompson is pretty average and Hoffman is a shadow of the player once was (even then he was a cry baby; hello 2006 gf)...Leuluai is alright but he can be shut down if you work from marker....

 

[Harry Sack]

Bomb the **** out of him allllll night......I mean morning.

Wright that is.

 

[Alec]

Lest I be misinterpreted I don't think their pack is terrible, but its not all 120kg islanders who are lightening over the ground....Lillyman is servicable but not scary, Thompson is pretty average and Hoffman is a shadow of the player once was (even then he was a cry baby; hello 2006 gf)...Leuluai is alright but he can be shut down if you work from marker....

I dunno if I can agree with that. I don't think Hoffman is any worse yet (or if he is, not by much). Lillyman is still good. He was one of the better QLD forwards last year.

 

[Big Pete]

It's the work of Manu Vatuvei that concerns me.

When he's on, he's the best set-starter in the game.

 

[Brent81]

I dunno if I can agree with that. I don't think Hoffman is any worse yet (or if he is, not by much). Lillyman is still good. He was one of the better QLD forwards last year.

I'm not saying they are terrible, but if you look at that warriors team, I don't think they are as big and physical as they have been.

 

[Brent81]

It's the work of Manu Vatuvei that concerns me.

When he's on, he's the best set-starter in the game.

True.

But he's also got a dropped ball in him and I think we might force a few dropped balls from
him.

Even agains Souths we were hitting around the stomach and forcing dropped balls. We did it last week as well.

I've just got a really positive vibe about this game.

 

[Big Pete]

Fingers crossed.

I don't think anyone is saying that the Warriors have the best pack in the game, but it's definitely looking more well-rounded than it has in sometime.

The Broncos can win the ruck but they're going to have to earn it.

 

[BroncosAlways]

No Hurrell and Tomkins makes me slightly more confident. The fact were basically an unchanged side from last week is a positive sign, assuming Copley still isn't right that is.

 

[Super Freak]

I'm not really confident about this game.

We've only won 2 games against the Warriors in NZ in the past 10 years. Our last win was Round 3, 2009.

Our win before that? Round 13, 2006..

 

[Ari Gold]

Hard to say what the Warriors strengths and weaknesses are so far as it's been a largely inconsistent and unremarkable set of performances thus far. IMO Tomkins has been a step above from last year and his absence will be notable, despite what Porthoz might think of him.

Here's my observations of the Warriors, though some of these impressions are from last year:

They like to push when the game is in the balance, the Warriors fight a lot harder than they did in the pre-Macfadden days. One of the features of their defence is that rather than just using line speed, they are specifically coached to have the first man hold up the ball carrier and then two defenders come in and push. Runs from dummy half or one up hit ups where there's only one guy lining up to take it will be punished if the game is in the balance.

They also like to push from the scrum once per game. Usually went it's least expected or when the game is in the balance. They have a decent success ratio at it too.

SJ has been horrible this year. He's also carrying a left arm injury. He's also worse when he plays without Tomkins. Their right edge attack is their go to area when Tomkins is in the team and Lolohea doesn't have the same chemistry, even if he is a half by trade. Allwood is also an average player and isn't the same threat that Hurrell is.

Hoffman has improved their left edge attack. He's especially dangerous from fast play the balls as the threat is there to go wide to Vatuvei and that opens things up for Hoffman.

Their right edge defence will be very weak this week. Allwood has 2-3 games experience and Jonno Wright isn't much chop. He's tall, so it's a bad idea to bomb to him, but you'd run down that edge all day if you're smart. I can see Glenn scoring a try this weekend.

Lolohea is not a natural fullback or winger and his high ball prowess is not as good as a result. He spilt one last week against the Eels. Vatuvei lacks a bit of acceleration too. Ideally you'd bomb between Lolohea and Vatuvei to create confusion. Neither is nailed on to take it and putting it between them will just create more confusion and possibly expose any potential lack of confidence Lolohea has under the bomb.

Their only centre is Kata who looks dangerous but is still a rookie. Needs to be watched in attack but Hodges could take advantage of him defensively.

Leileui looks a bit more dangerous out of dummy half than Friend so poor marker defence is more likely to be punished. He set up a try on the weekend for Lolohea by taking advantage.

All in all this is a very winnable game though.

 

[Rally Towel]

A lot of good points raised thus far.

I believe both their edges may be vulnerable given lack of experience and forced reshuffle. Hurrell and Tomkins out takes away quite a bit of firepower and cohesion from their attack. Vatuvei is suspect under the high ball, and neither Wright nor Allwood pose a significant threat. For the life of me I have no idea why they signed Allwood. Deadset average player in a sub par Canberra team last year.

Given the opportunity I believe we should be targeting Wright and Allwood over Kata and Vatuvei. Maybe not as suspect under the high ball but far less likely to punish us with an intercept or kick return.

I'm actually more confident of beating them away than at home. There's more pressure on them here than us, and I think Wayne will have their egos in check despite last week's win.

 

[Alec]

Jonathan Wright is arguably the worst winger in the competition. I can't see him having as much of a stinker as Justin O'Neill had against us though, that was one for the record books. Right up there with Eric Grothe in 2008 and Matt Duffie in...2013? in terms of wingers stinking it up against us.

Still, we should target him nonetheless, you never know. He's shit.

 

[Morkel]

For Vatuvei, the equation is simple. If you are close enough so that bombing him will get our chasers on him in time to compete, then do it every set. Even if he catches it he can be taken down easily if he doesn't have a head of steam up. Also, he can't seem to accelerate and hold the ball simultaneously under pressure - the slightest tap will dislodge it. If he's far enough away that he can get a clean catch, don't bother. He'll bash through the first three defenders.

 

[Kimlo]

I'm not really confident about this game.

We've only won 2 games against the Warriors in NZ in the past 10 years. Our last win was Round 3, 2009.

Our win before that? Round 13, 2006..

So if we win, history says we've got a premiership coming our way.