Ezra will be better for the run. He probably deserves to start solely on what he did in the 2023 GF, but that would involve having Ben Hunt at 14, I'm not sure Maguire will make that call, even if it is in the best interest of the side.
I think our best chance of winning would be this side, personally -
1. Walsh
2. Karapani
3. Shibasaki
4. Staggs
5. Mariner
6. Mam
7. Reynolds
8. Jensen
9. Paix
10. Haas
11. Piakura
12. Riki
13. Carrigan
14. Hunt
15. Smoothy
16. Hetherington
17. Willison
Edit: Alternatively, start Hunt at 9, have Smoothy at 14, and retain Talty over Paix. It shouldn't be too much of an issue burning 3 interchanges at hooker, given how many minutes Carrigan & Haas can/will play.