- Mar 4, 2008
- 38,183
- 48,858
We're 1 win behind second on the ladder.
Last year we came from 11th after 13 rounds to make the top 4
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- Thread starter Santa
- Start date
We're 1 win behind second on the ladder.
Last year we came from 11th after 13 rounds to make the top 4
- Jul 28, 2016
- 35,502
- 51,943
Looking at the cutoff for Top 4 over the last 3 years it went 15-9 last year, 16-8 (2024) and 16-8 (2023).
Last year was the tightest with us getting in on F/A... so it looks like 8 losses is basically a guaranteed spot... 9 losses is 50/50.
We're currently at 4-3... so we've got 5-6 losses to play over the next 17 games... so we'd need to go 12-5 or 11-6 for the rest of the schedule... that doesn't seem crazy, but health of the squad is important.
The 5 games through the origin period will be the deciding factor... as is usually the case with us.
Draw is below and we still have 10 games at Suncorp in the remaining 17 games
8. Bulldogs - Suncorp
9. Roosters - Sydney
10. Sea Eagles - Brookie
11. Warriors - Suncorp (Magic Round)
12. Bye (Origin 1)
13. Dragons - Suncorp (post-origin 1)
14. Titans - Suncorp
15. Rabbitohs - Sydney … Origin affected (Payne due back around this time)
16. Bye
17. Roosters - Suncorp
18. Sharks - Suncorp… Origin affected (****ing sharks during origin)
19. Bye
20. Panthers - Sydney
21. Cowboys - Townsville
22. Knights - Suncorp
23. Dolphins - Suncorp (away game)
24. Warriors - Suncorp
25. Raiders - Canberra
26. Storm - Suncorp
27. Bulldogs - Sydney
Broncos01243
U18 Player
- Oct 21, 2025
- 27
- 80
It's our injuries though. We have Bulldogs and Roosters next two weeks. It's going to be borderline impossible to win those games.
- Mar 4, 2008
- 38,183
- 48,858
That's what they said last week. (And last year when we beat the Bulldogs down there minus our origin players)
And even if we lose both of those, we still in no worse position than we were last year.
The top 4 isn't decided in April. If it was, the other 13 teams may as well just go home now and get ready for next season.
Relax dude
- Jul 28, 2016
- 35,502
- 51,943
Tigers was also considered impossible for us to win... but here we are
Broncos01243
U18 Player
- Oct 21, 2025
- 27
- 80
With our defensive commitment at the moment it's highly possible with a full strength side that we win 6 of the last 7 games. All of a sudden our bench is looking very strong - Willison, Talty, Walters, B Hunt. We can probably cop an injury or two in the final stretch and still win most games as we did last year. That leaves needing another 5 games. Next two games are gone,. Sea Eagles, Titans, Dragons all become must win. We then need to conjure two wins from Warriors at home (but likely heavily injury impacted still), Rabbitohs minus origin players, roosters at home, sharks at home minus origin players and penrith. That won't be easy.
Broncos01243
U18 Player
- Oct 21, 2025
- 27
- 80
I'm not saying we cant' make the 4 I'm trying to chart the path to it. Last week we were playing the Tigers - who are a level down from the Dogs and Roosters. From that game we lose Haas, Staggs, Arthurs and Jensen. If you are being objective we are hardly favourites this week or next week against the Roosters. I wouldn't be disappointed in the team if they lost. I'm looking for a path that allows for what is a more likely than not outcome.
- Jul 28, 2016
- 35,502
- 51,943
I wouldn't say rorters in 2 weeks is a complete right off... Walsh and Patty will be back at minimum for that game... Paix should be back this week and there are unknowns around Jesse and Staggs for even this week.
Rorters have been super inconsistent this year and their wins have been bunnies, manly (w/Seibs), sharks & knights... they got annihilated by both panthers and wahs. I don't think they're world beaters just yet.
By the time we get to post Origin 1 in round 14, Bhunt and Payne are flagged as being back as well as Mozer.
From that point it's Jensen, Anderson and Billy as the only starters missing... so we should be near full strength through the origin period... obviously missing the origin players for 2 games this year (Walsh, Payne and Patty), but would still have guys like Reynolds, Bhunt, Ezra, Staggs, Riki, Piaks, Willison, Mariner, Karp, etc.
Bunnies game they should be minus Latrell (NSW can't not pick him in his current form), Murray, maybe KK, maybe Campbell Graham, etc. so I don't mind that match up.
Sharks game is just straight up bullshit, but it's at home and AFB should be in origin and maybe Nikora (he should be there for Qld) given the rule changes this year.
Cory Paix Rd 8
Reece Walsh Rd 9
Pat Carrigan Rd 9
Aublix Tawha Rd 10
Ben Te Kura Rd 12 / Indefinite
Blake Mozer Rd 13
Ben Hunt Rd 14
Payne Haas Rd 14
Delouise Hoeter Rd 15
Grant Anderson Rd 16
Billy Walters - August
Corey Jensen - TBC
Broncos01243
U18 Player
- Oct 21, 2025
- 27
- 80
Yes if Walsh and Carrigan are back for Roosters - different story.
johnny plath
QCup Player
- Jul 16, 2014
- 370
- 393
I think this is the year... we don't make top 4 but still go back to back... first team in the nrl era from outside the top 4. I think when we won in 1993 we were the first team to win from fifth in the top 5 finals format.
LittleDavey
State of Origin Rep
- Mar 25, 2013
- 5,114
- 10,013
Yeah I think if we're going to do it this year, it'll be from outside the 4. I just don't see us getting to the top 4 at the end of the year. Too much disruption. Geez I'd love to be proven wrong, and I think we actually could go on a solid run and win it from outside the 4 with the early season enforced rests for a lot of our guys at the moment, but it's a tough ask.
If this is our injury quota for the seasons - we're a good shot. If we keep getting more throughout, we're screwed.
If this is our injury quota for the seasons - we're a good shot. If we keep getting more throughout, we're screwed.
Canberra and Bulldogs finished 1st and 3rd and were out in straight sets.
Panthers finished 7th and probably win the comp if they didn't meet us in the finals.
Ladder position doesn't mean much just have to get there, Our last 3 games in 25 won us the comp that's the time of year you need to turn it on.
- Jul 28, 2016
- 35,502
- 51,943
Also dependent on who finishes in the Top 4 if we don't and what kind of match up you end up with in week 2.
There's no real stand out teams this year other than panthers.
Storm are behind us and already at 5 losses... based on 8/9 losses being the cutoff for a top 4, means they can potentially only lose 3 more games for the season before top 4 is gone for them.
Who else is there... sharks? rorters? rabbits?
It's definitely doable... beating panthers though... that's going to be the real challenge in the finals this year. If you finish outside the top 4 then you're hoping to not see them until the GF I'd say
theshed
Just a Game
- Aug 28, 2010
- 17,032
- 41,248
I’ve developed an ultra complex formula to predict the most likely outcome of these matches. I won’t bore everyone with the quantum algebraic mathematics of it all but here’s what it has come up with:
Draw is below and we still have 10 games at Suncorp in the remaining 17 games
8. Bulldogs - Suncorp: Win by 50
9. Roosters - Sydney: Win by 50
10. Sea Eagles - Brookie: Win by 50
11. Warriors - Suncorp (Magic Round): Win by 50
12. Bye (Origin 1): Win by 50
13. Dragons - Suncorp (post-origin 1): Win by 50
14. Titans - Suncorp: Win by 50
15. Rabbitohs - Sydney … Origin affected (Payne due back around this time): Win by 49
16. Bye: Win by 50
17. Roosters - Suncorp: Win by 50
18. Sharks - Suncorp… Origin affected (****ing sharks during origin): Win by 50
19. Bye: Win by 50
20. Panthers - Sydney: Win by 50
21. Cowboys - Townsville: Win by 50
22. Knights - Suncorp: Win by 50
23. Dolphins - Suncorp (away game): Win by 50
24. Warriors - Suncorp: Win by 50
25. Raiders - Canberra: Win by 50
26. Storm - Suncorp: Win by 50
27. Bulldogs - Sydney: Win by 50
A couple games predicted to be a bit tighter than we might like but overall the season looks optimistic
- Jul 28, 2016
- 35,502
- 51,943
Panthers are definitely beatable, the talk was who's going to beat them then they go down to the Dogs and golden point Vs the phins.
Towards the back end of that game in Darwin thought the Phins looked the fitter team..
All our injuries in a way could be a blessing come back end of the year with our key guys playing less games during the year.
LittleDavey
State of Origin Rep
- Mar 25, 2013
- 5,114
- 10,013
Panthers will be pacing themselves though, they have the most experience out of the entire comp of the pointy end of the year within that club, they won't do more than they need to throughout the year but will definitely be there when the whips are cracking. They're the team to beat, then daylight.
Lockysillegitimatechild
State of Origin Rep
- Apr 10, 2015
- 6,400
- 13,624
Im a big top 4 stresser as a fan normally....
But madge is deadset the best backs against the wall coach I've ever seen....
No ones ever done it boys, everyone has written us off, 4 weeks playing away, backs against the wall., even penrith couldnt do it so we are no chance they reckon.....
I'd back us over ANY club to pull that off. The team, madge, the club seem to thrive off challenge. Its the exact opposite of the previous 10-15 years. And i ****ing love it!
But madge is deadset the best backs against the wall coach I've ever seen....
No ones ever done it boys, everyone has written us off, 4 weeks playing away, backs against the wall., even penrith couldnt do it so we are no chance they reckon.....
I'd back us over ANY club to pull that off. The team, madge, the club seem to thrive off challenge. Its the exact opposite of the previous 10-15 years. And i ****ing love it!
