2026 NRL General Discussion Thread

The Strapper said:
A 20 team comp is not as bad as it looks from a broadcast revenue point of view. (As long as we don't go to a conference system which would be a bad move.)

Currently 27rds X 8 games/rd = 204 games*/reg season + 9 finals games
*There weren't 216 games because there were not 8 games/rd during the origin series.

With a 20 team comp it could look like:
19rds X 10 games/rd = 190 games/reg season (14 less reg season games)
Assuming a 10 team finals system there would be 13 finals games (4 more finals games)

So there would be 14 less reg season games but 4 more finals games with 20 team comp.
That is a difference of only 10 games if a finals game is considered the same as a regular season game which clearly they aren't. They are definitely worth more.

Also If Origin is a standalone series then the integrity of the reg season is maintained as clubs don't lose players who have to be stood down for games prior to origin or have to either back up or be rested after origin games.

The current overall effect of Origin on the comp is hard to gauge but it is definitely there to some degree.

The number of games directly affected will vary but would be in the order of 20 - 30 over the 3 game series. Also some clubs would only have 1 or 2 origin players so the effect on them is less than clubs who have heavier representation.

This would be heavily debated but on the face of it I would think there should only be about a 5% reduction in broadcast revenue. Some or all of this discount may be able to be made up with a substantial international representative series in October and November.

The bottom line is the NRL should be able to argue that broadcast rights with a 20 team comp should be line ball compared to a 17 team comp.
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I agree, and I don't.

You're right about the number of games. But there's other factors which play into it as well and I have no idea how they affect the value to the broadcasters:

- Does more games each week lower the 'value' of each game due to more being outside prime times etc?
- Does fewer weeks in the season make each week valued higher?
- Does a higher weekly value (more games) offset the lower number of weeks of footy?
- Will Origin being standalone and presumably on weekends, increase the value either of it or of the rest of the comp being unmolested?
- What's the value of more internationals vs fewer NRL games?

What we can agree on I think is that it's complex to work through! It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. The conference idea can suck a fat one though, that's a worse idea than the 6-again fiasco.
 
LittleDavey said:
I agree, and I don't.

You're right about the number of games. But there's other factors which play into it as well and I have no idea how they affect the value to the broadcasters:

- Does more games each week lower the 'value' of each game due to more being outside prime times etc?
- Does fewer weeks in the season make each week valued higher?
- Does a higher weekly value (more games) offset the lower number of weeks of footy?
- Will Origin being standalone and presumably on weekends, increase the value either of it or of the rest of the comp being unmolested?
- What's the value of more internationals vs fewer NRL games?

What we can agree on I think is that it's complex to work through! It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. The conference idea can suck a fat one though, that's a worse idea than the 6-again fiasco.
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You make some good points.
The bottom line I think is that broadcast rights are more an art than a science.
Off course at the end of the day a dollar figure has to be attached to them.
How you get there though is the big question.
I agree it is complex and I'll happily admit it's above my pay grade.

I also completely agree with your comments on the conference idea.
 
McHunt said:
Thinking Seibold might have a shot at another spoon in 2026.
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Big chance that place implodes in 2026 so it could be on the cards.

If Turbo goes down, they're done.

Fogarty is an ok replacement for DCE, but he showed at canberra that he cant be the focal point of the attack.

That's going to put all the pressure on Turbo..... and Brooks.

If Turbo is out I can't see a halves pairing of Fogarty and Brooks doing much.
 
Really struggling to pick a spoon team beyond Manly tbh. They look the clear standout for mine. Dargons a close second I think.
 
Harry Sack said:
Really struggling to pick a spoon team beyond Manly tbh. They look the clear standout for mine. Dargons a close second I think.
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It looks like manly actually have a pretty easy draw, otherwise I'd agree.

A sneaky option for the spoon could be the cows, based on the below stats, but they could also implode if the players tools down.

Or maybe even the bunnies... they've been given a pretty ****ed draw because they're a big drawing Sydney club, but they ain't ready for that kind of hard. The only 'easy' team they play twice will be the knights.

Knights are probably the most likely, but it will be dependent on Ponga and Dylbags + Fletcher and Best.

The below scoring is weighted against the current Sportsbet odds to have a look at how hard the draws are.

Manly and Wahs have by far the easiest draw based on that... there's even a clear step between them and 3rd last, which of course is the sharks.

Eagles only play 2 teams from this year's top 8... storm and sharks (and are sharks even a top 8 team?)... Eagles look woeful on paper, but they have a piss easy draw and should get enough to not finish last.


1763724310779.png


Below has each team based on the above ranking and identifies who they play twice... look at how utterly disgusting the sharks draw is for a consistent Top 4/6 team... every ****ing year they get a weak as **** draw. They consistently finish high, but can't draw a TV audience or a crowd, so they don't have to play anyone that does... why are they even in the comp at this point.

1763724911982.png


The weighting used for what it's worth

1763726266580.png
 
Fogarty’s boot will help keep Manly in games. Hopoate’s shoulder in pre-games might negate though if he keeps taking out forwards.
 
BroncsFan said:
It looks like manly actually have a pretty easy draw, otherwise I'd agree.

A sneaky option for the spoon could be the cows, based on the below stats, but they could also implode if the players tools down.

Or maybe even the bunnies... they've been given a pretty ****ed draw because they're a big drawing Sydney club, but they ain't ready for that kind of hard. The only 'easy' team they play twice will be the knights.

Knights are probably the most likely, but it will be dependent on Ponga and Dylbags + Fletcher and Best.

The below scoring is weighted against the current Sportsbet odds to have a look at how hard the draws are.

Manly and Wahs have by far the easiest draw based on that... there's even a clear step between them and 3rd last, which of course is the sharks.

Eagles only play 2 teams from this year's top 8... storm and sharks (and are sharks even a top 8 team?)... Eagles look woeful on paper, but they have a piss easy draw and should get enough to not finish last.


View attachment 36886

Below has each team based on the above ranking and identifies who they play twice... look at how utterly disgusting the sharks draw is for a consistent Top 4/6 team... every ****ing year they get a weak as **** draw. They consistently finish high, but can't draw a TV audience or a crowd, so they don't have to play anyone that does... why are they even in the comp at this point.

View attachment 36887

The weighting used for what it's worth

View attachment 36888
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What Is This GIF
 
Reports in the SMH that the Bears are considering approaching the NRL to request salary cap allowances to help with their recruitment drive.

RLPA chief executive Clint Newton said

“If we’re serious about Perth and the long-term success of the NRL, this has to be addressed now instead of being ignored by the status quo.”

“We’ve raised these issues with Andrew [Abdo] and the NRL repeatedly. We’ve been crystal clear that Perth would face challenges in recruiting players, and we’ve been trying to get the NRL to problem solve that since the bid was confirmed.

“What concerns me is the NRL seems ready and willing to quickly redirect funds from the PNG bid to pay off existing clubs, but I’m yet to see how that benefits the game or fans.

“Sadly, when it comes to supporting an expansion club to actually sign players, there is not as much urgency – if any. We’re ready to work through sensible CBA amendments to support Mal [Meninga] and Perth.”

Peter Vlandy's said

“There’s no need for any incentives, and at this stage, we’re more than confident they’ll assemble a competitive roster, just as the Dolphins were able to before they entered the competition,” V’landys said.

“The one thing that’s great about our competition, especially last season, is that everyone is treated equally. I’m not worried about Perth. They will be more than fine.”
 
Foordy said:
Reports in the SMH that the Bears are considering approaching the NRL to request salary cap allowances to help with their recruitment drive.

RLPA chief executive Clint Newton said

“If we’re serious about Perth and the long-term success of the NRL, this has to be addressed now instead of being ignored by the status quo.”

“We’ve raised these issues with Andrew [Abdo] and the NRL repeatedly. We’ve been crystal clear that Perth would face challenges in recruiting players, and we’ve been trying to get the NRL to problem solve that since the bid was confirmed.

“What concerns me is the NRL seems ready and willing to quickly redirect funds from the PNG bid to pay off existing clubs, but I’m yet to see how that benefits the game or fans.

“Sadly, when it comes to supporting an expansion club to actually sign players, there is not as much urgency – if any. We’re ready to work through sensible CBA amendments to support Mal [Meninga] and Perth.”

Peter Vlandy's said

“There’s no need for any incentives, and at this stage, we’re more than confident they’ll assemble a competitive roster, just as the Dolphins were able to before they entered the competition,” V’landys said.

“The one thing that’s great about our competition, especially last season, is that everyone is treated equally. I’m not worried about Perth. They will be more than fine.”
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Bears are so ****ed

Newton out there just trying to get more money for the players.
 
I think there is an argument. Who would want to go to Perth with all the travel time for the same coin you can get here.
Maybe some players who think they're not getting a go or younger guys not prepared to wait.
 
And you aren’t being coached by anyone special either and there’s likely no success in the short term. It’s a really hard sell.
 
If you want to be an NRL player but can't break it into an established club, Perth looks absolutely ****in golden compared to the other shit hole they're moving into.
 
Dexter said:
I think there is an argument. Who would want to go to Perth with all the travel time for the same coin you can get here.
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Cost of living is a bit more expensive in Perth too, is it not? Mining money and what not.
 
Yeah not sure I'd be too keen on sitting on a plane for 8-10 hrs a week, living in the most isolated city on the planet, and being coached by Mal
 
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