It's hard to know where the Cowboys are at, they've barely had to leave the state
They thumped the Eels in Darwin (conditions would've favoured the Cows there), they beat Melbourne at home
They have a really soft draw, in that their key games are at home, for the most part. They've only got a few games which requires them to travel to Sydney. They could easily finish in the Top 4 and get beaten into submission when they're asked to take on the team that finished 1st or 2nd in week 1, interstate
I just looked it up, they have 6 games all season that aren't in QLD