Post-Covid Rugby League

Big Pete

Big Pete

International Captain
Mar 12, 2008
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In other words, the NRL moving into 2021.

What do you guys think the competition is going to look like moving forward?

We're in a strange position where clubs are desperate for change, but they're completely and utterly hamstrung by the lack of reserve grade. There's also rumours that the salary cap is going to be restructured and clubs will have less money on their cap, it'll be interesting to see if the current 30 man roster system will survive.

Looking ahead to 2021, these are the current NRL players off contract.

Brisbane Broncos: Darius Boyd (retiring), Herbie Farnworth, David Fifita, Rhys Kennedy, Issac Luke, Ben Te'o, Fanitesi Niu

Canberra Raiders: John Bateman, Nick Cotric, Michael Oldfield, Jordan Rapana, Sia Soliola.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs: Jack Cogger, Adam Elliott, Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Kieran Foran, Kerrod Holland, Marcelo Montoya, Sauaso Sue, Aiden Tolman.

Cronulla Sharks: Bryson Goodwin, Royce Hunt, Sione Katoa, Will Kennedy, Cameron King, Toby Rudolf, Scott Sorensen, Bronson Xerri (drug suspension pending).

Gold Coast Titans: Jai Arrow (South Sydney), Shannon Boyd (rumoured retirement), Dale Copley, Anthony Don, Keegan Hipgrave, Ryan James, Nathan Peats, Kevin Proctor, Tyrone Roberts.

Manly Sea Eagles: Cade Cust, Danny Levi, Corey Waddell.

Melbourne Storm: Josh Addo-Carr, Tom Eisenhuth, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Gold Coast), Ryley Jacks, Max King, Brenko Lee, Paul Momirovski (loan), Marion Seve, Cameron Smith, Suliasi Vunivalu (Reds), Christian Welch.

Newcastle Knights: Mitch Barnett, Herman Ese'ese, Aidan Guerra, Brodie Jones, Andrew McCullough (2021 option with Broncos), Jacob Saifiti, Connor Watson.

New Zealand Warriors: Gerard Beale, Lachlan Burr, Blake Green, Peta Hiku, Patrick Herbert, Isaiah Papali'i

North Queensland Cowboys: John Asiata, Gavin Cooper, Reuben Cotter, Mitchell Dunn, Francis Molo, Tom Opacic

Parramatta Eels: Kane Evans, David Gower, Reed Mahoney, Ray Stone, Brad Takairangi, Peni Terepo

Penrith Panthers: Caleb Aekins, James Tamou

St George Illawarra Dragons: Euan Aitken, Jack De Belin, Tyson Frizell (Newcastle), Tim Lafai,

South Sydney: Tom Amone, Alex Johnston, Bayley Sironen.

Sydney Roosters: Mitchell Aubusson, Jake Friend, Brett Morris, Josh Morris

Wests Tigers: Oliver Clark, Matt Eisenhuth, Harry Grant (loan), Robert Jennings, Chris Lawrence, Benji Marshall, Sam McIntyre, Alex Seyfarth, Elijah Taylor.

There's a few rookies and some players coming off contract in 2021 who could be made available early but these are all the big name players coming off contract. Of those I'd say only around 15 would attract significant interest while a few might get the odd deal just to fill out the squad.

There's a few names there that obviously stand out. Fifita could be a huge inclusion for any team and could be that Boyd Cordner type you base your entire sets around. Melbourne are caught between a rock and a hard place with Smith. It sounds like he wants to play on but if he does you'd have to imagine that will come at the expense of Grant. Addo-Carr is definitely out the way out, it's just a matter of who picks him up. It sounds like it'll be a Sydney team so I'd imagine Cronulla, Canterbury, St George would be the frontrunners but I could see a club like Souths clearing space to pick him up for Latrell.

Evans and Welch seem like strange picks at first, but I think both of them will attract interest. Both are big middle forwards from successful systems, they're typically the type of forwards Canterbury, Gold Coast, St George etc. would throw big money at keeping. Tamou is in a similar boat as well, I could see him getting that Brent Kite retirement package from a desperate club.

Moreover, there's a lot of cap space being cleared off the books. I wonder how many of these unbolded players will actually get picked up? Is a Nathan Peats just done with the NRL? Or do Cronulla throw him a lifeline? Will any of these struggling clubs like the Broncos go on a firesale and will anyone take them up on a Jack Bird or Anthony Milford on a cut-price deal?

My impression is that 2021 is going to be a very different looking competition and the teams that get on the ground floor now will make the biggest strides. I can see it being very similar to 1999 going into 2000 where there was an embarrassment of free agents, but clubs really struggled to get their combinations right, with Brisbane being the obvious exception.
 
I can see it being very similar to 1999 going into 2000 where there was an embarrassment of free agents, but clubs really struggled to get their combinations right, with Brisbane being the obvious exception.

Teams obviously go through big changes at their own pace, but I definitely think there's seasons that really shake up the competition. Usually it coincides with big name retirements/serious injuries, rule changes or salary cap changes.

2002 - The gang tackle comes into vogue after a season of limited interchanges. Most if not all salary cap concessions have been revoked making it a far more even competition, Sydney and Canterbury establish themselves as the powerhouses of the competition.

2005 - Fittler retires, Johns is still struggling with his knee reconstruction leaving a fairly open competition. Melbourne, Cronulla, Brisbane, Parramatta, St George all make strong claims for the title but in the end Wests happen to be playing the best footy come October. In response, Melbourne master the wrestle and only lose in a grand final to the Broncos who happen to have the best dummy half runners in the competition (Hodges, Berrigan & Tate). The ruck dominates the competition until...

2009 - The two referee system is brought into police the wrestle. Melbourne, Manly and Cronulla suffer because of it while St George, Canterbury and Parramatta rocket into contention. Melbourne still win the competition but are later found to be nearly $2 million over the cap. Melbourne and Manly eventually adjust and both go onto win legitimate premierships.

2013 - A revised salary cap is brought in last minute and the Roosters go on a recruitment spree. SBW, Maloney, Jennings, O'Donnell all come to the club and the former strugglers are transformed into heavyweights who go onto dominate the competition for the next three years. Melbourne and Manly begin to show their age, Brisbane are going through post-Locky and Bennett is wasting everybody's time at Newcastle.

2017 - A new salary cap is brought in and some teams handle it better than others. Sydney who cleared out the decks early are in the prime position to retain their top prospects and two elite players in Cronk and Tedesco. A reduced set of interchanges were brought into fatigue players, if anything it just creates more rests periods which brings a lot of the defensive teams into contention. Meanwhile Canterbury, Gold Coast and Wests completely lose the plot with their cap and spend the next few years paying the price.
 
Addo-Carr is definitely out the way out, it's just a matter of who picks him up. It sounds like it'll be a Sydney team so I'd imagine Cronulla, Canterbury, St George would be the frontrunners but I could see a club like Souths clearing space to pick him up for Latrell.

Wanna hear my hot prediction?

Latrell doesn't work out at Souths, they barely scrape in to the 8 and get bundled out in Week 1 of the finals, Latrell has an absolute stinker. Souths opt not to pick up his player option 2021, leaving him as a free agent. Roosters swoop in and bring him back to the Roosters for slightly more than he was on in 2019, but far less than he was on in 2020 (to play left centre, with Josh Morris retiring along with his brother after the Roosters win their 3rd straight premiership). Souths also release Gagai to the Titans, freeing up enormous amounts of cap space, to which they will offer a ludicrous 5 year / $6m dollar deal to Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who will accept, having requested a release from the Warriors to chase his dream of winning another NRL premiership.
 
Fatigue is a big issue going forward with the obsession to speed up the game. The reality is that it takes several off seasons to really build an NRL forward that has the endurance to play big quality minutes consistently. That’s one of the reasons why we are in the predicament that we are now.
I think that clubs will not be able to afford to have many rookies and so the competition will be harder to break into even if you are talented. Some less talented journeyman will be needed just because they have the physical development to cope with the speed of the game.
Either a true reserve grade competition (my preference) is required or the ISC will have to seriously up their standard in order to supply players capable of competing at this new level. Improving the ISC though will require some serious investment and it looks like the money for that just won’t be there.
 
I'm the complete opposite on Latrell, but that's a fun turn of events.

The coaching merry go round is going to be interesting.

Currently we've got Brisbane, Canterbury, North Queensland, St George Illawarra and the Warriors on the hot seat. The Warriors have already sacked their coach, it's just a matter of whether or not they keep Payten (unlikely). It also sounds like Bennett could be looking elsewhere with St George Illawarra looking most likely. I'd find a switch to North Queensland would be more interesting.

I could see it shaking out like this:

Brisbane Broncos: Kevin Walters
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs: Anthony Griffin (with a view for Flanagan in 2022)
North Queensland Cowboys: Craig Fitzgibbon (or some top flight assistant coach)
South Sydney Rabbitohs: Jason Demetriou
St George Illawarra Dragons: Wayne Bennett
Warriors: Geoff Toovey (or some top flight assistant coach, maybe David Kidwell)

With Latrell, I can see this season being a disappointment, but he'll kill it the following year making the transformation into GI complete.
 
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Fatigue is a big issue going forward with the obsession to speed up the game. The reality is that it takes several off seasons to really build an NRL forward that has the endurance to play big quality minutes consistently. That’s one of the reasons why we are in the predicament that we are now.
I think that clubs will not be able to afford to have many rookies and so the competition will be harder to break into even if you are talented. Some less talented journeyman will be needed just because they have the physical development to cope with the speed of the game.
Either a true reserve grade competition (my preference) is required or the ISC will have to seriously up their standard in order to supply players capable of competing at this new level. Improving the ISC though will require some serious investment and it looks like the money for that just won’t be there.

There are plenty of good players in ISC that could crack the NRL given the opportunity i think. Some just don't get the breaks.
 
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What sort of money is C Watson on?
He'd be a handy utility and back up to Turpin if we can't get Grant. Probably can't match what the Knights are paying him/what others may be prepared to offer though.

Even someone like Matt Eisenhuth or Toby Rudolf (believe he might have already been signed by warriors?) on minimal coin would be an upgrade on Ofa, Kennedy etc.

Looks as if the Titans are seriously clearing the decks. Knew they had cap space after this year but didn't realise quite so many players were off contract. Huge chance for Holbrook to re-build that side.

Begs the question, if you were in his shoes who would be your targets? Who are you paying overs for? Which (if any) of the blokes are you extending?
 
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I'm the complete opposite on Latrell, but that's a fun turn of events.

The coaching merry go round is going to be interesting.

Currently we've got Brisbane, Canterbury, North Queensland, St George Illawarra and the Warriors on the hot seat. The Warriors have already sacked their coach, it's just a matter of whether or not they keep Payten (unlikely). It also sounds like Bennett could be looking elsewhere with St George Illawarra looking most likely. I'd find a switch to North Queensland would be more interesting.

I could see it shaking out like this:

Brisbane Broncos: Kevin Walters
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs: Anthony Griffin (with a view for Flanagan in 2022)
North Queensland Cowboys: Craig Fitzgibbon (or some top flight assistant coach)
South Sydney Rabbitohs: Jason Demetriou
St George Illawarra Dragons: Wayne Bennett
Warriors: Geoff Toovey (or some top flight assistant coach, maybe David Kidwell)

With Latrell, I can see this season being a disappointment, but he'll kill it the following year making the transformation into GI complete.
I think you're close but I'm guessing there will be a couple of changes:

Broncos: Walters
Cowboys: Green (he ends up staying safe in my books) but failing that, Griffin as a Queenslander might loom as an attractive option here.
Bulldogs: Caretaker after sacking Pay and they're clearing the decks to have a shot at Bellamy long term, but I don't think he'll take them up. If they wait too long they'll be left high and dry without a proven option - Nathan Brown, Griffin, Fitzgibbon and Toovey should all be considered here.
Rabbitohs: Demetriou
Dragons: Bennett
Warriors: Nathan Brown

Two other variables are that without doubt, if Bennett comes to the Dragons then SOMEONE is going to want to pick up Shane Flanagan. Personally, I think Cronulla despite all the bad blood will be under immense pressure to do something unless Morris improves significantly - I wouldn't be shocked to see him end up back at the Sharks:

The other big milestone on the horizon is that it will likely be the final year of Bellamy at Melbourne, which brings to an end the longest current tenure between club and Coach in the game currently. It's almost like batting after Bradman and it'll be fascinating to see how they handle that. My absolute wildcard here would be that Cameron Smith is offered the opportunity to stay in Melbourne and make the very swift transition from player to Coach.
 
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What sort of money is C Watson on?
He'd be a handy utility and back up to Turpin if we can't get Grant. Probably can't match what the Knights are paying him/what others may be prepared to offer though.

Even someone like Matt Eisenhuth or Toby Rudolf (believe he might have already been signed by warriors?) on minimal coin would be an upgrade on Ofa, Kennedy etc.

Looks as if the Titans are seriously clearing the decks. Knew they had cap space after this year but didn't realise quite so many players were off contract. Huge chance for Holbrook to re-build that side.

Begs the question, if you were in his shoes who would be your targets? Who are you paying overs for? Which (if any) of the blokes are you extending?
Other than us I think the Titans next year and the year after are in the next best position cap-wise going forward.

Like us, they have a lot of dud contracts that are due to expire in 2021 - Cartwright, Peachey, Roberts - not to mention Taylor who might be renewed but on far less money. They also have Peats off contract after this year too and Boyd who will likely retire having barely fired a shot for them.

They will need to recruit one or probably two middle Forwards given they're losing Jai Arrow, Boyd will likely retire and Ryan James is technically on the market for 2021 too, then they also have Wallace off contract after 2021.

They're quite stacked for Backrowers with Proctor coming off the books, replaced by Fa'asuamaleaui coming from Melbourne and some handy talents in Fermor and Darius Farmer coming through.

Their spine has Brimson locked in long term, but outside of him they'll almost be looking for a new Dummy Half and potentially another Half if they don't persist with one of both of Fogarty or Taylor. They have Tanah Boyd chipping away in the background there so it seems their biggest opportunity will like most clubs focus around getting the best Dummy Half available - the likes of Koriosau or Fainu would likely not break the bank and would improve their prospects almost overnight. Harry Grant would also no doubt be a target for them too if he became avbailable.

They also need at least one gun Outside Back who can score tries consistently. The game is in the doldrums for strike Centres everywhere currently, but the Titans need one more than most - I could see them getting this wrong though and buying someone stupid like Joey Leilua.
 
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What sort of money is C Watson on?
He'd be a handy utility and back up to Turpin if we can't get Grant. Probably can't match what the Knights are paying him/what others may be prepared to offer though.

Even someone like Matt Eisenhuth or Toby Rudolf (believe he might have already been signed by warriors?) on minimal coin would be an upgrade on Ofa, Kennedy etc.

Looks as if the Titans are seriously clearing the decks. Knew they had cap space after this year but didn't realise quite so many players were off contract. Huge chance for Holbrook to re-build that side.

Begs the question, if you were in his shoes who would be your targets? Who are you paying overs for? Which (if any) of the blokes are you extending?
Rudolf was signed by the Warriors but looks to be back flipping on that deal for family reasons, so I think he'll probably stay at the Sharks - especially if Fifita's future is uncertain with injury.
 
Other than us I think the Titans next year and the year after are in the next best position cap-wise going forward.

Like us, they have a lot of dud contracts that are due to expire in 2021 - Cartwright, Peachey, Roberts - not to mention Taylor who might be renewed but on far less money. They also have Peats off contract after this year too and Boyd who will likely retire having barely fired a shot for them.

They will need to recruit one or probably two middle Forwards given they're losing Jai Arrow, Boyd will likely retire and Ryan James is technically on the market for 2021 too, then they also have Wallace off contract after 2021.

They're quite stacked for Backrowers with Proctor coming off the books, replaced by Fa'asuamaleaui coming from Melbourne and some handy talents in Fermor and Darius Farmer coming through.

Their spine has Brimson locked in long term, but outside of him they'll almost be looking for a new Dummy Half and potentially another Half if they don't persist with one of both of Fogarty or Taylor. They have Tanah Boyd chipping away in the background there so it seems their biggest opportunity will like most clubs focus around getting the best Dummy Half available - the likes of Koriosau or Fainu would likely not break the bank and would improve their prospects almost overnight. Harry Grant would also no doubt be a target for them too if he became avbailable.

They also need at least one gun Outside Back who can score tries consistently. The game is in the doldrums for strike Centres everywhere currently, but the Titans need one more than most - I could see them getting this wrong though and buying someone stupid like Joey Leilua.

Fotuaika is a quality middle and I imagine will want a fairly big upgrade. Joliffe has looked pretty good too actually. Not sure what they do with Hipgrave but he's probably surplus to requirements. Two of Eisenhuth, J Saifiti, Ese'ese, Oliver Clark, Stone, Terepo would be handy pickups that could represent value at the right price.

Depending on asking price, I actually think Tamou would be a good signing for them. Similar mould to Ryan James but far less injury prone and would be a good experienced head for their young pack. Then again they're probably more likely to overspend on Welch to try bring back a QLD player.

If they were to miss out on Fifita I actually think it puts them in a better position to balance out their squad.

They signed Kelly as a strike centre but doesn't look like the solution as he can't tackle. Peachey is another issue entirely. Maybe someone like Aitken?
I think Young Tonu was actually their best defensive centre pre-injury and should be persisted with.

If they could put this side together next year they'd be moving in the right direction
1. Brimson
2. Sami
3. Tonumaipea
4. Peachey/Kelly
5. Thompson
6. Taylor
7. Fogarty
8. Tamou/Welch
9. Rein
10. Fotuaika
11. Tino
12. Fermor
13. M Eisenhuth

14. T Boyd
15. Joliffe
16. Lisone/Wallace
17. Stone/Clark

Halves definitely need to be sorted out and question marks still over Fermor. I think that side could cause problems though.
 
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Boyd who will likely retire having barely fired a shot for them.
Boyd can retire but they're not getting that cap space back, because you can't medically retire for not being fit enough.

The only alternative is Boyd walking away from his contract... and if that were the case you'd have to do some serious investigations for something shifty being done, as it would be a guy who is walking away from the only big contract he ever received to become a farmer
 
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Boyd can retire but they're not getting that cap space back, because you can't medically retire for not being fit enough.

The only alternative is Boyd walking away from his contract... and if that were the case you'd have to do some serious investigations for something shifty being done, as it would be a guy who is walking away from the only big contract he ever received to become a farmer
I’m sure if he’s allowed to medically retire by the Titans they’ll have done their homework to get him off their cap. The NRL would be very keen to help the Titans in that regard too I’m sure.
 
Fotuaika is a quality middle and I imagine will want a fairly big upgrade. Joliffe has looked pretty good too actually. Not sure what they do with Hipgrave but he's probably surplus to requirements. Two of Eisenhuth, J Saifiti, Ese'ese, Oliver Clark, Stone, Terepo would be handy pickups that could represent value at the right price.

Depending on asking price, I actually think Tamou would be a good signing for them. Similar mould to Ryan James but far less injury prone and would be a good experienced head for their young pack. Then again they're probably more likely to overspend on Welch to try bring back a QLD player.

If they were to miss out on Fifita I actually think it puts them in a better position to balance out their squad.

They signed Kelly as a strike centre but doesn't look like the solution as he can't tackle. Peachey is another issue entirely. Maybe someone like Aitken?
I think Young Tonu was actually their best defensive centre pre-injury and should be persisted with.

If they could put this side together next year they'd be moving in the right direction
1. Brimson
2. Sami
3. Tonumaipea
4. Peachey/Kelly
5. Thompson
6. Taylor
7. Fogarty
8. Tamou/Welch
9. Rein
10. Fotuaika
11. Tino
12. Fermor
13. M Eisenhuth

14. T Boyd
15. Joliffe
16. Lisone/Wallace
17. Stone/Clark

Halves definitely need to be sorted out and question marks still over Fermor. I think that side could cause problems though.
Fotuaika is actually one of the quiet achievers of the competition this year. I doubt anyone else has really noticed unless you’re a keen Fantasy/SuperCoach player, but Fotu has been producing comparable statistics to Payne Haas, and he’s actually doing them from less minutes - he’s been enormous this year and he’s done it totally off the radar.

Jolliffe too looks to be another great pickup - if they can stay the course with some of these guys (I include Fogarty here too) and they can spend the cap wisely they are capable of assembling quite a handy side.
 
I’m sure if he’s allowed to medically retire by the Titans they’ll have done their homework to get him off their cap. The NRL would be very keen to help the Titans in that regard too I’m sure.
It's been rumored that he wants to retire because the new rules have made the game too fast for him.

If the game passing you by is grounds for medical retirement then Darius could've retired 3yr ago.

I'm sure they will look to claim medical retirement, but Shannon played this year and did all of preseason... he's just not in the team because he's not good enough for the NRL anymore
 
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There is still a lot to unpack.

Do you guys think they'll stick with the current 30 man salary cap squad? Or will they go back to a 25 man squad with a flexible second tier salary cap? If that happens, do you think we'll see a mass exodus of players who aren't happy accepting pay-cuts?

Also with new coaches coming in, which marquee players do you see on the chopping block?

Could we potentially see these players on the free market this pre-season?

Brisbane: Jack Bird, Anthony Milford, Joe Ofahengaue, Corey Oates
Canterbury: Will Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Dylan Napa
Gold Coast: Tyrone Peachey, Ash Taylor, Jarrod Wallace, Bryce Cartwright
North Queensland Cowboys: Esan Marsters, Scott Drinkwater, Michael Morgan, Jordan McLean, Jake Granville, Coen Hess
St George Illawarra Dragons: Matt Dufty, Corey Norman, Ben Hunt, Tariq Sims
Warriors: David Fusitua, Kodi Nikorima, Adam Blair

A lot of these teams have to make changes, it's just going to be interesting to see whether the impacts of Covid are going to allow it.
 
There is still a lot to unpack.

Do you guys think they'll stick with the current 30 man salary cap squad? Or will they go back to a 25 man squad with a flexible second tier salary cap? If that happens, do you think we'll see a mass exodus of players who aren't happy accepting pay-cuts?

Also with new coaches coming in, which marquee players do you see on the chopping block?

Could we potentially see these players on the free market this pre-season?

Brisbane: Jack Bird, Anthony Milford, Joe Ofahengaue, Corey Oates
Canterbury: Will Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Dylan Napa
Gold Coast: Tyrone Peachey, Ash Taylor, Jarrod Wallace, Bryce Cartwright
North Queensland Cowboys: Esan Marsters, Scott Drinkwater, Michael Morgan, Jordan McLean, Jake Granville, Coen Hess
St George Illawarra Dragons: Matt Dufty, Corey Norman, Ben Hunt, Tariq Sims
Warriors: David Fusitua, Kodi Nikorima, Adam Blair

A lot of these teams have to make changes, it's just going to be interesting to see whether the impacts of Covid are going to allow it.
I think a 25 man roster that was locked in, with a second tier cap available to pick up or trade guys during the first half of the season might be an interesting concept to explore. Lots of details to iron out but I’m pretty confident that trading, one year deals and loans both short and long term will only increase in the future.
 
There is still a lot to unpack.

Do you guys think they'll stick with the current 30 man salary cap squad? Or will they go back to a 25 man squad with a flexible second tier salary cap? If that happens, do you think we'll see a mass exodus of players who aren't happy accepting pay-cuts?

Also with new coaches coming in, which marquee players do you see on the chopping block?

Could we potentially see these players on the free market this pre-season?

Brisbane: Jack Bird, Anthony Milford, Joe Ofahengaue, Corey Oates
Canterbury: Will Hopoate, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Dylan Napa
Gold Coast: Tyrone Peachey, Ash Taylor, Jarrod Wallace, Bryce Cartwright
North Queensland Cowboys: Esan Marsters, Scott Drinkwater, Michael Morgan, Jordan McLean, Jake Granville, Coen Hess
St George Illawarra Dragons: Matt Dufty, Corey Norman, Ben Hunt, Tariq Sims
Warriors: David Fusitua, Kodi Nikorima, Adam Blair

A lot of these teams have to make changes, it's just going to be interesting to see whether the impacts of Covid are going to allow it.
If they reduce to 25 players... how will that work with players currently under contract??

What if a team already has 27 players under contract next year

Broncos have already used 27/28 players this year so reducing the squad sizes would've had us digging into the second tier cap.

NRL may only be thinking about reducing squad sizes to spread the playing talent around the rest of the comp.... cut 5 players from each team and suddenly there's 80 players without a first grade contract
 
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