Round 14 - Raiders vs Broncos

[Morkel]

So now I'm being tag-teamed by forum staff telling me what I can post and what I can't. Why not make a general announcement then, DON'T POST ANYTHING UNLESS YOU HAVE EVIDENCE.

Apply this forum wide.

It's not us being the evidence / critical thinking overlord (when it suits our argument). We're not telling you how to post, just making you accountable for your previous tirades against people that have done what you yourself just did.

 

[theshed]

It's not us being the evidence / critical thinking overlord (when it suits our argument). We're not telling you how to post, just making you accountable for your previous tirades against people that have done what you yourself just did.

Can we please give Huge the official title of “critical thinking overlord”

 

[WASSHHH]

Someone dust off the Weber, it’s time for another BHQ BBQ.

 

[I bleed Maroon]

Can we please give Huge the official title of “critical thinking overlord”

Or just "Huge (douchebag)"

 

[Morkel]

Someone dust off the Weber, it’s time for another BHQ BBQ.

If we end up with a Storm Panthers grand final, I'll put my hand up again. I'll bubble wrap the house first though.

 

[WASSHHH]

If we end up with a Storm Panthers grand final, I'll put my hand up again. I'll bubble wrap the house first though.

Is that to protect the house from the fights or the lunatics from themselves?

 

[papabear]

I think we could find reasons for some teams to be having success, where others do not. But first, let us take a look at the play by play against Canberra for the Broncos. Within the first 20 min there were 6 penalties or 6-agains against the Broncos vs 1 against raiders. This amounts to hard defensive work early. Raiders have more energy to attack, Broncos lose more early. The result is similar to running hill-sprints at the start of a Marathon. Broncos didn't help themselves by holding the ball when they had it, but psychologically it's the same old story for Broncos players.

It might be argued that they only have themselves to blame, but when it happens every week, it becomes less likely. Against the Roosters it was not the case and we beat them.

Raiders aren't that good a side, that's true, but if they were not given so much early ball, the game would not have been a blowout.

To your point about other teams: this is actually an aid to the targeting argument against the Broncos as you are seeing a fair representation of the quality of the teams with some bad reffing and some good reffing and less psychological effects.

Melbourne will continue to do well, because the NRL needs a strong team in AFL heartland. Cronulla conveniently won a Premiership in the one year they weren't cheating, just as their club was floundering financially and on the brink of collapse.

You are right, we aren't used to being shit because we have always had first pick of the bunch of good QLD talent, and we still do. But now a new Brisbane team is planned and all of a sudden Broncos turn to shit? When the Titans started they struggled for fans, they still do to an extent, but success helps. Similarly the Crushers, they could never compete with the Broncos when they came to join. They collapsed.

edit:
In the end, the NRL is a business. It was inevitable that it would turn out like this. It just took the Broncos losing like this for me to realise that.

The NRL is a business and the broncos being strong helps the league more then any other team except for maybe melbourne.

The broncos huge fan base lifts TV ratings which is the primary source of NRL revenue and all other digital ratings.

The broncos success also drags in way more away fans then the average club - when they are shit you get less of both of the above.

If the NRL were intentionally doing the dodgy to help teams - the brisbane broncos would be no 1 or 2 with melbourne on who they would help - then parramatta (sydneys) biggest club by far - who havent won a premiership in yonks then some sort of combination of the dogs / tigers and the merge.

Ok as a canberra fan - i would much prefer us to have momentum late in the match then early - again look at newcastle a game were we had early momentum and penalties - then the tide turned and we were to shit to get momentum again and just rolled over.

The refs arent trying to rip on brisbane - your players are scared of being weak in the middle so they leave the hand on the ball a little longer, peel instead of all getting off as one a little bit more, all so they dont lose control of the middle - because when you lose control of the middle what happened in the second half to you guys happened... its happened to us heaps this year - where if i was coaching the raiders I would give a penalty because I can see the try coming and the rest needed but they just lose the middle and get rolled through..

 

[papabear]

If we end up with a Storm Panthers grand final, I'll put my hand up again. I'll bubble wrap the house first though.

Thats probably what we will get though because those two sides are playing a shitload better then anyone else.

 

[papabear]

Yes, there was much left unsaid about salary caps and drugs. I don't think we need to rehash too much especially about the publics perception and knowledge of events but I think that people should read between the lines a little. By that I mean they should be asking 'why was the punishment apparently so lenient?' . Naturally most will lean towards a conspiracy/favouritism based explanation but I believe the reasons are more complicated.

In my mind (after talking at length with my buddy) the NRL carried more fault or had more to hide than most understood. No, I don't have any knowledge and yes, it's just my opinion. Despite what many think Cronulla is very definitely NOT beloved by the NRL ( the Nswrl ) The club was always an outsider and like us, never treated well and unlike St George up the road who were always looked after. They were further alienated after defecting to Super League. The Nswrl never forgave that so people should consider this when making claims that the Nswrl/ NRL are buddybuddy with Cronulla.

I believe Cronulla held a trump card of sorts and the NRL punished them as severely as they dared. Whether that was fair or not is not my call. I simply accept it because I am not privy to all the information.

IMO the NRL would love the sharks to go broke to send them to perth / qld or nz.

the sharks won that premiership because we choked in the opening qualifier letting matt prior stroll through our middle in a game we had won - if we win that cronulla likely has to go through a much harder (melbourne ) side of the draw to make the GF whereas canberra are at home in the prelim v a tired cows outfit.

that year was canberras to lose with the attack e had and we lost it. then melbourne dropped the bananas in the GF.

 

[Financeguy]

The NRL is a business and the broncos being strong helps the league more then any other team except for maybe melbourne.

The broncos huge fan base lifts TV ratings which is the primary source of NRL revenue and all other digital ratings.

The broncos success also drags in way more away fans then the average club - when they are shit you get less of both of the above.

If the NRL were intentionally doing the dodgy to help teams - the brisbane broncos would be no 1 or 2 with melbourne on who they would help - then parramatta (sydneys) biggest club by far - who havent won a premiership in yonks then some sort of combination of the dogs / tigers and the merge.

Ok as a canberra fan - i would much prefer us to have momentum late in the match then early - again look at newcastle a game were we had early momentum and penalties - then the tide turned and we were to shit to get momentum again and just rolled over.

The refs arent trying to rip on brisbane - your players are scared of being weak in the middle so they leave the hand on the ball a little longer, peel instead of all getting off as one a little bit more, all so they dont lose control of the middle - because when you lose control of the middle what happened in the second half to you guys happened... its happened to us heaps this year - where if i was coaching the raiders I would give a penalty because I can see the try coming and the rest needed but they just lose the middle and get rolled through..

I don't buy into any 'conspiracy against the Broncos' as some sort of years long intentional sabotage by both internal and external sources so agree with pretty much all your posts on the subject.

However, this year in particular we have been on the rough end of some ref decisions and more so general ref intent to be overly harsh, the Manly game in particular where we were never given a fair go and to a lesser extent the Dragons game.

I believe it is not so much conspiratorial but more because we bend over and take it both during the game and post game. If we had a captain like C. Smith or any experienced respected captain like a Gallen, Cordner, DCE or even Gutho that can stop the game, plead our case and wake the ref up, sure we might not win that decision but would help us get leeway with the next half dozen calls.

Our home fans are also some of the most passive (or maybe just switched off due to ~2 years of shit performance) so home field advantage is the weakest in the league.

Post game Kevvie just seems happy to still have the coaching job so does not blow up about a ref decision that influences momentum in a game like a Sticky or Robinson would. Our board needs to back him to cop a fine and give them a spray.

In short, we are the easy beats of the league so a ref making a 50/50 call (or some cases 40/60 call) against us doesn't come back to bite them because 'its only the the Broncos, they lost by 30+ so a few bad decisions didn't matter'

 

[tommy]

What about the titans game though? Without the ref’s help we get done by 50 again. Down 22-0 and suddenly we get 6 agains every 5 minutes until the scores were even.

 

[Financeguy]

What about the titans game though? Without the ref’s help we get done by 50 again. Down 22-0 and suddenly we get 6 agains every 5 minutes until the scores were even.

Fair point, but i would say we have been shafted more often than not by ref's this season, and i am someone that loathes blaming ref's. (The Manly game in particular, we were never given a chance)

I think in that Titans game that the GC got off to such a hot start that even the ref thought this is going to be 80nil if i don't 'manage' the game accordingly...

 

[tommy]

Fair point, but i would say we have been shafted more often than not by ref's this season, and i am someone that loathes blaming ref's. (The Manly game in particular, we were never given a chance)

I think in that Titans game that the GC got off to such a hot start that even the ref thought this is going to be 80nil if i don't 'manage' the game accordingly...

Yeah I missed the manly game so can’t comment.

 

[Organix]

The NRL is a business and the broncos being strong helps the league more then any other team except for maybe melbourne.

The broncos huge fan base lifts TV ratings which is the primary source of NRL revenue and all other digital ratings.

The broncos success also drags in way more away fans then the average club - when they are shit you get less of both of the above.

If the NRL were intentionally doing the dodgy to help teams - the brisbane broncos would be no 1 or 2 with melbourne on who they would help - then parramatta (sydneys) biggest club by far - who havent won a premiership in yonks then some sort of combination of the dogs / tigers and the merge.

Ok as a canberra fan - i would much prefer us to have momentum late in the match then early - again look at newcastle a game were we had early momentum and penalties - then the tide turned and we were to shit to get momentum again and just rolled over.

The refs arent trying to rip on brisbane - your players are scared of being weak in the middle so they leave the hand on the ball a little longer, peel instead of all getting off as one a little bit more, all so they dont lose control of the middle - because when you lose control of the middle what happened in the second half to you guys happened... its happened to us heaps this year - where if i was coaching the raiders I would give a penalty because I can see the try coming and the rest needed but they just lose the middle and get rolled through..

I agree about the business aspect, which is why it's important to shed some fans that will go to support the new Brisbane team. Imagine having 2x Brisbane's revenue instead of 1x or 1.2x. If Brisbane were winning, what would be the point of supporting a new, unproven team? It's like that meme: mum, can we have Brisbane2.0? We have Brisbane at home. Broncos.

Secondly, you're also right about a run of penalties coming home, or at least you would be, if the damage weren't already done. In fact, in most games Brisbane do receive such a string, but by that time, they are tired, mentally defeated and incapable of using them.

A string of 6-again calls early is enough to gain the ascendancy. The most games these days are won in the first 20 minutes or so. Furthermore, it's about timing. For example, a 6-again at the 30 on the 4th is far more advantageous than a 6-again anywhere on the 1st. For the most part, Broncos receive the latter and suffer the former.

Regarding fear in the middle, this is also true, but it was instilled since Rd2 2020.

 

[Organix]

What about the titans game though? Without the ref’s help we get done by 50 again. Down 22-0 and suddenly we get 6 agains every 5 minutes until the scores were even.

Anything for the Derby. Same as Cows. Gotta go to golden point.

 

[1910]

This goes right back to when the NSWRL (as it was back then) through their arrogance, granted only one license for a Brisbane club. They should have granted two or three.

Back then, the NSWRL considered themselves rugby league gods. Every year, NSW flogged Qld in interstate football. Rugby League Week would dedicate two pages of its 50-odd to the Brisbane league.

The NSWRL considered Brisbane a rugby league back-water, and due to their arrogance, created a monster (Brisbane Broncos).

Over 30 years later, when the financial strain of COVD19 hit, they took the opportunity to begin correcting the error of the the NSWRL and ensure that the one or two extra Brisbane teams had every chance of success. Because now - it was about ensuring the financial viability of the league - and Vlandys is willing to sacrifice short term profit for long-term gain.

As a man connected with the shady world of horse racing, Vladys is fully capable of dirty dealing, and in hindsight, I can now see why he was so determined to get the NRL back on track after the original lockdown. He had a plan he needed to deploy.

The QRL only wanted one team, the BRL clubs only wanted one team and they nearly stuffed that around too.

 

[Kooly87]

just to follow up, Huge, I think I conflated the membership numbers of Cronulla with financial success. That being said, they are pretty low on membership numbers. Typically bottom 4 of all clubs. That seems to me to be something the NRL would want to rise. I would actually like to see membership numbers vs club performance over time and look at the correlation.

To understand Cronulla's membership problem you really need to understand Cronulla and the Shire itself.

It's not all that big in terms of population, it's literally isolated geographically from everywhere else in Sydney, and it's population is neither transient nor is it really growing. People from outside the area rarely move in, and people from inside really only move out if they are priced out from a real estate perspective.

It's hemmed in by the ocean and national parks, and it's fiercest rival to the North. This is different to a remote suburban area like Penrith or Campbeltown which still have vast tracks of lands around them where new suburbs are popping up constantly and the population is steadily increasing.

Manly are the only real Sydney club with a similar geographic/demographic issue, but decades of success has ensured they have fans spread across the country now, not to mention they made inroads on the Central Coast that have helped prop their numbers up. Cronulla have no such success to call on to bring in fans, nor do they have any relationship with any other location outside a small, very isolated patch in Southern Sydney.

 

[Organix]

To understand Cronulla's membership problem you really need to understand Cronulla and the Shire itself.

It's not all that big in terms of population, it's literally isolated geographically from everywhere else in Sydney, and it's population is neither transient nor is it really growing. People from outside the area rarely move in, and people from inside really only move out if they are priced out from a real estate perspective.

It's hemmed in by the ocean and national parks, and it's fiercest rival to the North. This is different to a remote suburban area like Penrith or Campbeltown which still have vast tracks of lands around them where new suburbs are popping up constantly and the population is steadily increasing.

Manly are the only real Sydney club with a similar geographic/demographic issue, but decades of success has ensured they have fans spread across the country now, not to mention they made inroads on the Central Coast that have helped prop their numbers up. Cronulla have no such success to call on to bring in fans, nor do they have any relationship with any other location outside a small, very isolated patch in Southern Sydney.

So, you're saying it would be in the interests of the NRL for them to be successful despite an ASADA scandal and a curious salary cap situation?