Round 6 Discussion

[Super Freak]

STATS TIME!

First up, Panthers vs Rabbitohs.

Panthers have played Rabbitohs 39 times at home. They have won 19, lost 19 and drew 1.

Panthers have won 2 of their previous 5 games at home against Souths. Their last win was Round 12, 2011.

Panthers average for at home is 20.82 a game. Their average against is 18.33.
____________________

Titans vs Broncos.

Titans have played Broncos 7 times at home. They have won 3, lost 4.

Their last win was Round 20, 2012.

Titans average for at home is 19.33. Their average against is 25.17.
____________________

Raiders vs Knights.

Raiders have played Knights 21 times at home. They have won 16, lost 4 and drew 1.

Raiders have won 3 out of their last 5 at home against Knights. Knights last win was Round 21, 2012.

Raiders average for at home is 29.76. Their average against is 20.29.
____________________

Eels vs Roosters.

Eels have played Roosters 59 times at home. They have won 32 and lost 27.

Eels have won 1 out of their last 5 games at home against Roosters. Their last win was Round 23, 2012.

Eels average for at home is 16.58. Their average against is 15.93.
____________________

Tigers vs Cowboys.

Tigers have played Cowboys 12 times at home. They have won 9, lost 3.

Tigers have won their last 5 games at home against Cowboys. Cowboys last win against Tigers in Sydney was Round 25, 2004.

Tigers average for at home is 25.67. Their average against is 18.17.
____________________

Manly vs Sharks.

Manly have played Sharks 36 times at home. They have won 30, lost 5 and drew 1.

Manly have won their past 4 out of 5 games at home against Sharks. Sharks last win was Round 1, 2008.

Manly's average for at home is 24.86. Their average against is 14.03.
____________________

Warriors vs Bulldogs.

Warriors have played Bulldogs 16 times at home. They have won 7, lost 9.

Warriors have won 2 out of their last 5 games at home against Bulldogs. Their last win was Round 19, 2011.

Warriors average for at home is 22.88. Their average against is 23.38.
____________________

Storm vs Dragons

Storm have played Dragons 13 times at home. They have won 12 and lost 1.

Storm have won their previous 5 games at home against Dragons. Dragons haven't won in Melbourne since Round 13, 1999.

Storm's average for at home is 26.15. Their average against is 11.08.
____________________

Right. I think that covers all of them. Can anyone think of any other stats that I might have missed that could be important?

 

[Rally Towel]

Apparently Mullen could be back this week.

Mullen on target for early return to Knights | Newcastle Herald

Reckon he may well be the difference if he does play. They've missed him.

 

[Rally Towel]

Roosters haven't been performing that well, and there has been 1 big upset each round. That was a flip of the coin, I picked heads. Eels were heads.

Fair cop. We have had a crazy amount of upsets.

Would have good odds if you put this on a multi?

As for me, I got:

Bunnies
Bronx
Raiders (possible switch if Mullen plays)
Roosters
Tigers
Manly
Bullgrubs
Storm

 

[Super Freak]

Here are some more stats.

Panthers vs Rabbitohs.

Panthers score an average of 18.6 points a game and concede an average of 16 points a game.
Rabbitohs score an average of 20 points a game and concede an average of 16.6 points a game.

Titans vs Broncos.

Titans score an average of 19 points a game and concede an average of 20.8 points a game.
Broncos score an average of 22.8 points a game and concede an average of 19.8 points a game.

Raiders vs Knights.

Raiders score an average of 19.2 points a game and concede an average of 20.4 points a game.
Knights score an average of 16 points a game and concede an average of 22.4 points a game.

Eels vs Roosters.

Eels score an average of 23 points a game and concede an average of 25.6 points a game.
Roosters score an average of 20.4 points a game and concede an average 15 points a game.

Tigers vs Cowboys.

Tigers score an average of 28.6 points a game and concede an average of 26.4 points a game.
Cowboys score an average of 19.2 points a game and concede an average of 14.6 points a game.

Manly vs Sharks.

Manly score an average of 16.8 points a game and concede an average of 17.4 points a game.
Sharks score an average of 13 points a game and concede an average of 22 points a game.

Warriors vs Bulldogs.

Warriors score an average of 19.2 points a game and concede an average of 27.6 points a game.
Bulldogs score an average of 23.8 points a game and concede an average of 12 points a game.

Storm vs Dragons.

Storm score an average of 21.4 points a game and concede an average of 25.4 points a game.
Dragons score an average of 23 points a game and concede an average of 22 points a game.

 

[Super Freak]

Fair cop. We have had a crazy amount of upsets.

Would have good odds if you put this on a multi?

As for me, I got:

Bunnies
Bronx
Raiders (possible switch if Mullen plays)
Roosters
Tigers
Manly
Bullgrubs
Storm

The odds are pretty good. $73.90 odds for a multi, I was going to go with that. However, I decided to have a crack at the margins this week.

 

[Super Freak]

I can't sleep and I've got nothing better to do at the moment, so here are some more stats.

Panthers - 585.6 kick metres, 1480.8 metres, 24 tackle breaks, 4.6 line breaks, 11.2 offloads, 3.4 tries, 11.4 errors, 30.4 missed tackles.
Rabbitohs - 389.6 kick metres, 1386 metres, 31.4 tackle breaks, 4.4 line breaks, 10 offloads, 3.2 tries, 14.2 errors, 23 missed tackles.

Titans - 447.2 kick metres, 1531.4 metres, 17 tackle breaks, 2.6 line breaks, 13.2 offloads, 3.2 tries, 14.6 errors, 32 missed tackles.
Broncos - 518.6 kick metres, 1467.6 metres, 18.4 tackle breaks, 3.8 line breaks, 9.4 offloads, 4 tries, 10.4 errors, 30.4 missed tackles.

Raiders - 699.6 kick metres, 1391 metres, 27.4 tackle breaks, 3.4 line breaks, 9 offloads, 3.4 tries, 10.2 errors, 29 missed tackles.
Knights - 532.2 kick metres, 1508 metres, 25.4 tackle breaks, 3.2 line breaks, 10.4 offloads, 2.8 tries, 11.8 errors, 32.8 missed tackles.

Eels - 620.6 kick metres, 1434 metres, 31.2 tackle breaks, 5.6 line breaks, 8.2 offloads, 4.4 tries, 8.8 errors, 24.8 missed tackles.
Roosters - 566 kick metres, 1391.6 metres, 21.2 tackle breaks, 5.2 line breaks, 4.8 offloads, 3.4 tries, 12 errors, 31.2 missed tackles.

Tigers - 494.2 kick metres, 1424.2 metres, 28 tackle breaks, 4.6 line breaks, 10 offloads, 4.8 tries, 11.6 errors, 34 missed tackles.
Cowboys - 516.6 kick metres, 1599 metres, 30.2 tackle breaks, 3.6 line breaks, 8.8 offloads, 3.4 tries, 14 errors, 19.4 missed tackles.

Warriors - 468.2 kick metres, 1430.6 metres, 22.8 tackle breaks, 4.4 line breaks, 9.2 offloads, 3.6 tries, 12.4 errors, 29.4 missed tackles.
Bulldogs - 551 kick metres, 1707.6 metres, 27.8 tackle breaks, 3.6 line breaks, 10.6 offloads, 4 tries, 9.8 errors, 18.4 missed tackles.

Manly - 525.2 kick metres, 1431.2 metres, 25.8 tackle breaks, 4.6 line breaks, 9 offloads, 2.8 tries, 13.2 errors, 29 missed tackles.
Sharks - 514.2 kick metres, 1476 metres, 20.4 tackle breaks, 2.6 line breaks, 10 offloads, 2.4 tries, 12.8 errors, 24.6 missed tackles.

Storm - 547.4 kick metres, 1367 metres, 22 tackle breaks, 3.8 line breaks, 7.4 offloads, 3.6 tries, 9 errors, 27 missed tackles.
Dragons - 625.6 kick metres, 1397.6 metres, 27.2 tackle breaks, 4.8 line breaks, 9 offloads, 4 tries, 11.4 errors, 25.6 missed tackles.

 

[Broncoman]

Rabbitohs
Broncos
Raiders
Roosters
Tigers
Bulldogs
Sea Eagles
Storm

 

[Super Freak]

Brent Kite could return for the Panthers.

An interesting stat. Inglis has been man of the match in the previous 2 channel 9 games at Penrith.

It's reported Jarrod Mullen trained really well and is a good chance of returning this round. Raiders have lost 5 in a row at home now, the worst run in the clubs history I believe. I couldn't hear Middleton well enough when he said it.

Luke Douglas, has there ever been another player that hasn't missed a game? This weekend will be his 200th consecutive game. He hasn't missed a game since his debut for Sharks in 2006.

 

[Harry Sack]

Melbourne, Manly and Warriors all certs this week imo

 

[Unbreakable]

Rabbitohs
Broncos
Knights
Roosters
Cowboys
Warriors
Eagles
Storm

Please Rugby League gods, be kind to me this week.

 

[Super Freak]

THE potential early returns of Jarrod Mullen, Brent Kite and Jorge Taufua headline a bumper edition of NRL Late Mail.

Panthers v Rabbitohs

Brent Kite (calf) is considered a strong chance of an early return, with Jeremy Latimore to make way. Coach Ivan Cleary says Isaah Yeo was added to an extended bench because he can cover both centre and back row, with doubts over Dean Whare. The Rabbitohs are set to be unchanged.

Titans v Broncos

The Titans will be 1-17, with Aidan Sezer (quad) fit to return and William Zillman (hamstring) to be given another week. Ryan James did not travel to Papua New Guinea with the Tweed Heads Queensland Cup side, instead staying in Australia as back-up for the NRL squad. Matt Srama (shoulder) is aiming for a round eight return. The Broncos are expected to be 1-17.

Raiders v Knights

The Raiders will be 1-17, with Josh Papalii (ankle), Bill Tupou (hamstring), Jarrad Kennedy and Shannon Boyd (both illness) cleared to return, while Joel Edwards (concussion) is being rested. Jarrod Mullen (hamstring) trained strongly on Thursday (see pics) and is expected to make an early return.

Eels v Roosters

The Eels will be unchanged, with Fuifui Moimoi (leg gash) cleared and Ben Smith (finger) to be given another week. The Roosters have named a 19-man squad and will finalise their bench after Friday’s captain’s run, with Jared Warea-Hargreaves (suspension) to return and Kane Evans (ankle) training all week.

Tigers v Cowboys

The Tigers are expected to be 1-17, with Ava Seumanufagai (shoulder) and Liam Fulton (concussion) cleared. Kurtis Rowe will make his NRL debut at fullback in place of James Tedesco (ankle), while Blake Austin will make his club debut in place of Braith Anasta (suspension). The Cowboys will be unchanged, with Jason Taumalolo (shoulder) certain to play despite missing much of the second half on Monday night.

Warriors v Bulldogs

Acting Warriors coach Andrew McFadden has shaken up the team by dropping Feleti Mateo and Chad Townsend. He is yet to confirm a final team, although hooker Siliva Havili is favoured to debut despite being named out of the 17. Frank Pritchard (ankle) will travel with the Canterbury side, but a final call won’t be made until Saturday. Mitch Brown (ankle) has been cleared to return on the wing in place of Chase Stanley (shoulder), but Moses Mbye will not make the trip across the Tasman.

Sea Eagles v Sharks

Jorge Taufua (shoulder) is expected to return for Manly in place of Peta Hiku. Todd Carney (illness) attended a Cronulla video session on Thursday before missing field work, but is not in doubt. Sosaia Feki (knee) trained on Thursday and is a chance to play.

Storm v Dragons

The Storm had Thursday off and have only trained once so far this week as they build towards Monday night. They are on track to be unchanged. The Dragons are also very early in their preparations, but Tyson Frizell (ankle) was still in a moon boot on Wednesday and is not considered a chance of an early return.

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[Ari Gold]

[MENTION=8536]Super Freak[/MENTION] One more stat that might be useful this week - Win percentage for newly appointed coaches/first week after coach is sacked

 

[Big Pete]

8 from 19 isn't it?

 

[Bucking Beads]

I think the Warriors vs Bulldogs match will be a high scoring affair.

 

[Ari Gold]

8 from 19 isn't it?

I think it was 6 from 15 since '01 so that sounds about right.

 

[Big Pete]

That figure is from the Sterlo show, yeah?

Super Freak can confirm but that's the figure I thought Middo came up with on The Footy Show, I can't remember the range he was using though. I was surprised by that stat. I thought it was more, but as it turns out, new coaches tend to do better the week after with Middo reporting figures of 13 wins from 19 occasions.

 

[Super Freak]

@Super Freak One more stat that might be useful this week - Win percentage for newly appointed coaches/first week after coach is sacked

For the Warriors, the win percentage is 25%

Frank Endacott - Lost
Tony Kemp - Won
Brian McClennan - Lost
Tony Iro - Lost

If you were to include all newly appointed coaches for the Warriors, it would still be 25% I believe..unless my maths has failed me.

Frank Endacott - Lost
Mark Graham - Won
Daniel Anderson - Lost
Tony Kemp - Won
Ivan Cleary - Lost
Brian McClennan - Lost
Tony Iro - Lost
Matthew Elliott - Lost

If you were to take a look at the success of newly appointed coaches after Elliot..

Brian Noble (Bradford) - Won
Neil Henry (Raiders) - Lost
Ivan Cleary (Panthers) - Lost

If history repeats itself, Warriors are in for a bad ending to the week...

I'll have a look at the other coaches. Thought I would start off with the Warriors..

 

[Super Freak]

Wait..by first week after, did you mean the first game?