When will NSW win a series again?

[OXY-351]

I was thinking the other day after the teams were selected that QLD have the team to win this year again. A team that has been together for a number of years, compared to NSW who really haven't built a solid base of dependible players yet.

With the exception of Civo, the current QLD team should be around for at least the next 3 years, and could perhaps do the unthinkable and win 10 series in a row. Will NSW be able to come up with a team in that time to win the series back from QLD?

When do you seriously think NSW will win a series?

 

[JaseC]

I'm going to go with 2013. I am very confident this year; however it's inevitable that they win a series. Statistics are against us.

That said I will rue the day they do win, and will be jumping around proclaiming how great they are and singing the praises of the current crop of NSW "Superstars". I honestly believe, below the border, 1 series win will wipe all memory of the last 6 years of dominance.

 

[Coxy]

I was thinking the other day after the teams were selected that QLD have the team to win this year again. A team that has been together for a number of years, compared to NSW who really haven't built a solid base of dependible players yet.

With the exception of Civo, the current QLD team should be around for at least the next 3 years, and could perhaps do the unthinkable and win 10 series in a row. Will NSW be able to come up with a team in that time to win the series back from QLD?

When do you seriously think NSW will win a series?

I thought the same at the start of 2006 though to be honest. Albeit, QLD had had Thurston and Lockyer together for the 2005 series, and some of the pack was the same. Still, NSW looked settled, 3 series in a row, QLD having to cobble together a team especially after losing game 1.

I wouldn't write NSW off this year, not by a long shot.

 

[simmo77]

No 2072 option?!?!?!

 

[Jeba]

So we should. If a raw team can beat the best rugby league team in the world in a big upset, then ****ing oath we'll be singing the praises of our team. And you're right, it WILL wipe all memory of the last 6 years of dominance! That's exactly what QLD did in 2006, so why wouldn't we do that in 2012

Because you're not going to win.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

So we should. If a raw team can beat the best rugby league team in the world in a big upset, then ****ing oath we'll be singing the praises of our team. And you're right, it WILL wipe all memory of the last 6 years of dominance! That's exactly what QLD did in 2006, so why wouldn't we do that in 2012

The thing is, origin is such an even contest usually, that despite how good the QLD team is, NSW have come close multiple times, and its just come down to lack of effort for 80 mins etc that cost them. NSW shouldnt act like QLD is the best team in the world, and beating QLD shouldnt be looked at as such a massive feat. If NSW go into this series thinking like that, they are already half way to losing. They have a 50/50 chance of winning. QLD has won on the back of more desire and dedication to the 80 mins, not just because we are better on paper.

QLD can't possibly win in this situation. if we win, its coz we have the best team ever and well it was expected so no big whoop. If we lose, NSW are the new messiahs because they beat the "best team in the world".

NSW will win one day, and it should not erase all the achievements of the QLD team, but sadly it will because dolts like rocky have put QLD on such a pedestal that they can only fail from here.

 

[rnabokov]

I think the defining factor last year was the Maroon's desire to give Locky a fitting farewell overcame NSW's desire to end a 5 year dynasty, or equally, preventing the Qld Origin Dynasty stretching to 6 straight. Also, importantly, the NSW teams were not as good as they should have been.

This year, NSW have a very strong line-up. Carney and Pearce for mine are a very dangerous combination, as well as Carney's individual talent. They are however, let down by their bench, competent thought it is.

However, I reckon the real driving force behind the NSW effort this series is the recognition that 7 straight is serious humiliation, and that the Qld Dynasty must end at all costs. I reckon they'll play our of their skins.

So for me it comes down whether Qld's desire both to give Civo a fitting farewell and keep the Dynasty rolling will be strong enough to overcome the obsession which will drive NSW. Passion vs obsession.

For NSW, this is not just an Origin series. It is THE series to stop the rot, the humiliation, the belief NSW have a divine right to rule. That, coupled with a very good side, particularly the halves, makes me lean ever so slightly to a NSW series win.

Hope I'm wrong.

(Of course I missed something crucial: luck - good or bad, like injuries, the refs, bounce of the ball etc...can't really factor that in this thread other than to assume equal shares)

 

[Ari Gold]

For NSW, this is not just an Origin series. It is THE series to stop the rot, the humiliation

But it's not. NSW have said things like that in the past, and if they lose this year, they will say the same thing next year. There is nothing inherently more special about this series for NSW than there has been in the past few years. The same cannot be said for QLD. I honestly don't think it's as big a deal if NSW lose in terms of what it means in an overall context. If NSW lose, they can say the exact same thing next year "THIS is the year to stop the rot etc". If QLD lose, they can't say "THIS is for 7 in a row" next year.

Which isn't to say that Origin itself inherently means more to QLD, just that QLD have more to lose than NSW do in terms of overall Origin achievements.

 

[OXY-351]

their spine is ranked my most as the best spine rugby league has ever seen in 100+ years.

Better than Jarrod McCracken's, that's for sure

 

[Dexter]

I'm more worried about this year than the past 5. History will tell you if you keep telling ppl they can't do something that's when they lift and find the bit extra whithin themselves.

NSW don't have a bad side, they can score points that's for sure, they have a few suspect defenders but they are still good players who can lift for a series.

 

[jarro65]

I'm more worried about this year than the past 5. History will tell you if you keep telling ppl they can't do something that's when they lift and find the bit extra whithin themselves.

NSW don't have a bad side, they can score points that's for sure, they have a few suspect defenders but they are still good players who can lift for a series.

For sure.

I hope our guys are primed and ready as I can feel an ambush coming on.

 

[Coxy]

I'm more worried about this year than the past 5. History will tell you if you keep telling ppl they can't do something that's when they lift and find the bit extra whithin themselves.

NSW don't have a bad side, they can score points that's for sure, they have a few suspect defenders but they are still good players who can lift for a series.

This. The fact the QLD team was so easily picked, everyone seems to be fit and in form (except Boyd) makes me nervous, especially with so much criticism of the NSW team. While they may lack passion, the NSW players don't lack personal pride, and they'll want to show the critics up.

QLD meanwhile don't have much to prove.

QLD better be up for it or they'll be 1-0 down very easily.

 

[ethos]

Agree with Coxy.

Although the trump card on Queensland's side is Meninga. He'l find a way to keep them motivated. In the media he's been spruiking the 'new era' post Locky which is a great way to distance previous success from what needs to be done this year.

Plus, it's Civ's last series - can be assured he and Scott will be raring to go.

 

[Coxy]

Agree with Coxy.

Although the trump card on Queensland's side is Meninga. He'l find a way to keep them motivated. In the media he's been spruiking the 'new era' post Locky which is a great way to distance previous success from what needs to be done this year.

Plus, it's Civ's last series - can be assured he and Scott will be raring to go.

Oh for sure. There's been lots of times in the past 3 years especially where QLD could've had a drop in motivation and nobody would've really judged them if they lost the series. Afterall, how desperate can you be to win a series if you've won 3, 4, 5, 6 in a row? Yet they keep finding that determination and motivation.

I'm seeing or hearing nothing to suspect complacency amongst the camp, but you just never know how they're going to perform until they run out on the field.

Suffice to say I think the first 20 minutes is crucial. If QLD start well, NSW make a few mistakes, and QLD gets a lead, I think the past 6 years' history starts to take its toll and QLD could just go on with it. If QLD start badly, NSW run away to a bit of a lead, that boost in confidence and desire NSW will have might be enough to hold out the inevitable comeback from QLD at bay.

They're not the only 2 possible scenarios obviously - could be both teams come out on fire in the first 20 minutes and nobody gives an inch (that's what we'd all hope, surely) - or both teams could come out like busteds like a Parramatta-Titans match (highly unlikely) :P

 

[Mister Wright]

I always get nervous around Origin time and I think you have to be. It is such an even contest. I'm not sure of exact statistics, but out of the 6 series wins in a row only one has been a "Maroon-wash" and I think only one other series has seen a dead rubber. NSW have never been far away, it is just when the important moments come QLD always find a way to score or defend their score.

I think what keeps motivating this QLD team is that they have been so structured and consistent with the selections and they love playing with each other. When you see Smith & Thurston interviewed it's like they are brothers. When you build that love of your team it's easy to do the extra 'one percenters' for you mate.

 

[JaseC]

Agree with Coxy.

Although the trump card on Queensland's side is Meninga. He'l find a way to keep them motivated. In the media he's been spruiking the 'new era' post Locky which is a great way to distance previous success from what needs to be done this year.

Plus, it's Civ's last series - can be assured he and Scott will be raring to go.

Rumour has it, Mal has told the entire team this is the beginning of the new era. Not only are they distancing themselves from the "Locky" era, Cam Smith has taken this series personally as his first season as QLD (& Australian) captain.

 

[Coxy]

Technically it's not Smith's first as captain as Locky missed all of the 2008 series and Cam deputised, but officially this is his first as the official Queensland captain. So I can understand his motivation.

 

[The Brizz]

There is a reason in the past 6 years we have won games off the back of effort plays late in tight contests where we have won 50-50 loose balls and created mistakes due to digging deep. There have been numerous occasions during the streak that have not been won by the "brilliance" of our spine but off the back of guys busting it for 80 minutes and being up for the effort plays late. Some NSW players in recent years have been far slower and less urgent in those critical moments, some NSW players have that 80 spirirt but there has been a fair few that haven't.