2010 Spring Racing Carnival

[Dave]

Might as well throw my two bob in as well

1. SHOCKING
Top pick for me - going enormous this campaign. Has drawn beautifully, Rodd will be able to get him in a great spot and he does have good heave form, winning the Makybe Diva this Spring and a very close second on a bottomless track in the Qld Derby. I reckon 2400m is his go this prep.

2. METAL BENDER
Has claims obviously but if the emergencies don't run he starts from the inside barrier and a horse hasn't won the Caulfield Cup from barrier 1 in 40 odd years. I think he is under the odds - place chance for mine.

3. MR MEDICI
Dominant win in the heaviest rain I have ever seen last start in Hong Kong. He left the HK champ Viva Pataca in his wake up the straight. They say he may lead in the race - fitness could be his downfall

4. TOKAI TRICK
If you back him surely it's for the Japanese element only. Hasn't started for agaes and his last run was poor, even though it was in a race that Makybe Diva once ran in and failed. He is huge odds though, could well be another Delta Blues - I couldn't back him

5. BUCCELLATI
Poor form - not going well enough

6. HARRIS TWEED
A real live chance at $26 I think. This horse is going better than ever, sting out of the ground suits and the distance is not going to be an issue. The margin wasn't huge when he won last start but the jockey knew he was the best horse in the race and rode him accordingly. Should settle midfield but watch for him late.

7. MANIGHAR
Has great wet track form and is prepared by a trainer who knows how to get the job done in Australia. Oliver rides and I think he has the most CC wins by any jockey. I don't usually give the overseas horses a chance but this bloke should get a glorious run and I wouldn't leave him out.

8. MASTER O'REILLY
When is this horse going to retire??? Won an EI affected CC a few years ago but unless he starts tomorrow has no chance here.

9. MONACO CONSUL
It wouldn't surprise me to see this bloke won a race. Has drawn barrier 1 his last 2 starts and ended up bottled in on the fence which I don't think he appreciates. Has good wet track form and will appreciate the distance. Rough place chance.

10. TRIPLE HONOUR
Doubt he can figure - is a good honest horse who normally runs well but think he lacks the class.

11. ZAVITE
Will be up on the speed so that is a positive. Donkey licked them in a cup race in NZ earlier this year but that is a much weaker class than this. Doubt he can figure

12. ALCOPOP
Short price, bad draw, ordinary trainer. I doubt him on the wet track. He might well have won this race 12 months ago - I don't think he can win in 2010

13. HERCULIAN PRINCE
Beat the B graders in the Metrop but it was on a wet track so that is one positive for him. I don't think Mourayan could win this and if Mourayan was well ridden in the Metrop he would have made a race of it I reckon. I think he is a risk, even though Gai is flying at the moment.

14. ZABRASIVE
There is a promo going where you can win a share in this bloke each time he starts this Spring. A widse bloke told me he would give it back if he won it. Won a Group 1 race in Sydney during the Autumn beating some good quality horses but he is going terribly this prep. No chance

15. DESCARADO
Will race on the pace but might have to work too hard from the wide barrier. Could be a major contender next Spring I think.

16. JESSICABEEL
Terrible draw and doesn't like the wet. The longer the races the better she seems to go but I doubt she can be a factor here.

17. FAINT PERFUME
Now that the rain has come this is Bart's best chance I think. JB has put the blinkers on in an attempt to get her mind on the job and I am sure it will make a difference. She was just starting to warm up late last start, is beautifully drawn and has been set for this for some time now. A definate winning chance.

18. DARIANA
On a dry track she would have been my top pick but from all reports she needs good ground to show her best. Absolutely brained them in the Qld Derby and only good filles can do that. Jockey is flying and you can never discount the great JB Cummings - maybe 1st Tuesday in November for her on a sunny day with firm footing?

19E. MOURAYAN
From my favourite stable but I doubt he would win, even if he did get a start. Was very tough in the Metrop behind Herculian Prince - Maybe the Moonee Valley Cup or the 2800 on Cup Day is the race for him

20E. RED RULER
Had a streak of wins in NZ earlier in the year but that doesn't mean much in the Spring - not a hope

21E. DRUNKEN SAILOR
Not sure why they have bought this horse over - trrainer must have spun a good story to the owner to get him to fork out for the trip

22E. VALDEMORO
Thank good ness she won't be running - everyone named Val will save their hard earned

THE TIPS;

1 - Shocking - almost bomb proof each way I reckon
2 - Faint Perfume
3 - Harris Tweed

Roughie - Manighar

Good luck if you are having a punt

 

[Beachy]

Luxbet offering $12 about Shocking at the moment for those interested

 

[The Brizz]

Just went and put money on Shocking for today, I think he should win but I do worry about him coming from too far back on such heavy ground because so far the sprints home today have been pretty sloppy and nothing is really making big ground.

 

[Aeetee]

Thanks for returning my SMS jebba you plick.

its ok I have a new goto man for tips.

YOU'RE FIRED!!

 

[The Brizz]

Well did my money today on Shocking but the $10 I got on him a month ago looks incredibly nice right now, he was powering home and was the pick of the field in terms of Melbourne Cup trials.

 

[Jeba]

On first look I really liked the run of Manighar, Cumani really knows the type to bring over here and he looks like he will suit the conditions of a Melbourne Cup.

If the wet continues in Melbourne I think Monaco Consul can give it a shake as well.

Shocking the obvious eye catcher.

 

[Beachy]

I'm wary of backing anything that ran on that track yesterday

 

[Jeba]

Will be a sad occasion seeing the Cox Plate being run and Stathi not on board to ride Shoot Out. Sad sad day :cry:

 

[Jeba]

I am still in shock with the death of Stathi, but I will try and find us the Cox Plate winner after today's barrier draw.

1. ZIPPING
The war horse who is sure to run well. Moonee Valley doesn't seem to be his track but I reckon Nick Hall could pull a rabbit out of the hat here and try and lead. When this horse looked like getting headed in the Turnbull, he just lifted as soon as he looked those other horses in the eye. Same thing in the Australian Cup. Winning chance for sure and IMO a good each way bet.

2. WHOBEGOTYOU
Keen to take him on to be honest. I don't think the 2040m in such a high pressure race suits him. He can get away with a lot in races like the Yalumba which he won last year but in the best WFA race in Australian I think he is a risk.

3. LUEN YAT FOREVER
Big run last start, can he win in this company? Wouldn't think so.

4. WALL STREET
Should be thereabouts most of the way. Did win the NZ version of the Cox Plate, and the form was franked on the weekend with the win of Ginga Dude, but he didn't beat anything that could run well in this race. Rough place hope maybe but keen to bet around him.

5. SO YOU THINK
Not much explanation needed here. If you don't include him in any of your exotic bets you are dead set nuts. Obvious hope and very hard to beat.

6. SHOOT OUT
I will be at Eagle Farm on Saturday along with a few other punters from this forum and if Shoot Out kicks clear in the straight in the Cox Plate I am expecting the roof will be lifted. The one every Queenslander will want to win for one of our greatest jockeys, Stathi Katsidis. RIP.

7. TRUSTING
Reckon this bloke has found form this time in and is the best roughie in the race. Thought he was a decent bet in the 2009 version of this race until he jarred up in the Guineas and I reckon he is a better horse this year. Looking for him to charge home and you could do worse than have an each way ticket on him.

8. CAPTAIN SONADOR
Won the Epsom but doesn't strike me as a WFA horse, and Glen Boss said immediately after the Epsom that he would avoid the Cox Plate with the Captain. Might run well but not for mine.

9. AVIENUS
Will find these too classy.

10. MORE JOYOUS
A champion mare. I underestimated here and her win in the Toorak was simply awesome. Has now won 7 races in a row and has the quality to win this race. Not saying she is as good as Sunline, but if she keeps improving she may well be. However in saying that she has another 2 Cox Plates to win yet.

THE TIP
Would love to see Shoot Out win. Other chances are So You Think, Zipping, Trusting and More Joyous. I'd suggest to box those 5 up in a trifecta icon_thumbs_u

 

[The Brizz]

So You Think Is Scary! I don't think it can beat Shocking over 2 miles but you can never say never with a horse this good. I also don't like the idea of a horse running two weekends in a row before the Tuesday I think that it takes a massive effort but Bart is the best at this time of year and I am sure he won't run him if he doesn't think he can run it out.

 

[Jeba]

I am sure he will run out the 3200m, but will he do it as good as the other good stayers we have at the moment? We have to remember that technically he is still a 3yo and has never even run further than 2040m, and considering that a Melbourne Cup win won't enhance his stud career, I'm not sure Bart would take the risk with him when he has 3 other good stayers running for him in Precedence, Faint Perfume and Dariana. Looking at the Cox Plate run yesterday, Zipping and Whobegotyou made up a few lengths on him in the straight and it's not as if So You Think was eased up on the line either.

Obviously I'm not Bart, but if it was me I wouldn't be running him, and instead just maybe give him another run in the McKinnon, and focus on next year's Cox Plate and the recognition to be as good as, if not better than, the great Kingtson Town. In saying that, as someone who is going to be at Flemington on Cup Day, it would be a sight to see him win the 150th running of the Cup. But like I said, I think he is a risk.

Will be very keen to see the third acceptances tomorrow morning. Linton and Precedence are my best results this year so I am hoping some of the donkeys like Master O'Reilly, Buccellati and Doctor Fremantle don't accept because they don't deserve to be in the Cup over some good progressive stayers at the moment. The fact that a horse like Master O'Reilly gains an automatic start in the Cup, having not won a race in over 3 years, is an absolute joke.

 

[Jeba]

For those interested, I will stick up a Melbourne Cup Preview tonight with a comment on every runner. See if we can find one to beat So You Think icon_thumbs_u

 

[Bucking Beads]

My tip for the cup is Shoot Out.

 

[Beachy]

1. SHOCKING (Gate 24 - $8.50)
Last years winner, and he's actually racing better than he was at this time last year. Put in a teriffic trial for this in the Caulfield Cup at a track he's not really suited at, but was disappointing to my eye yesterday in the Mackinnon. He loves Flemington, and you know he runs the trip, but this is a stronger field than last year. Can win, but I couldn't back him.

2. CAMPANOLOGIST (Gate 19 - $61)
Comes here the higher rated of the 2 Godolphin runners, but the fact that their number 1 jockey Frankie Dettori has elected to ride their supposed 2nd stringer speaks volumes for me. Word is he's a nervy horse, so how he copes with 120,000 screaming fans on course will nearly be as big a test as the 3200m. I can't see him featuring.

3. SO YOU THINK (Gate 3 - $3.50)
This guy is a freak. He's without doubt the best horse I've seen in the time I've been watching races. All his wins this campaign have been special, but he went to a new level yesterday in winning the Mackinnon. There will still be lingering doubts with some about his ability to see out the 3200m, but the way he settled yesterday has put that to bed for mine. Plus Bart thinks he'll do it on his ear - that's good enough for me. He just wins.

4. ZIPPING (Gate 16 - $31)
The fine wine of Australian racing - he's getting better with age it seems. This year he's won an Australian Cup, a Turnbull Stks and been placed behing So You Think in a Cox Plate. And he's 9yo. Super stuff. I know he's run 4th in 2 Melbourne Cups, but I'm not convinced he gets the 2 mile trip. Place chance at absolute best.

5. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (Gate 9 - $71)
8yo English galloper who has been bought by Australian interests. He's a tough horse, who from reports races back in the field and grinds his opponents into the ground. If that's the case he'll struggle here, because the Australian way of racing won't suit a horse like that. To win a Melbourne Cup you need a turn of foot. In addition to this his best races have been run at Goodwood, which is a clockwise track - Flemington is anti-clockwise. It's safe to risk him winning.

6. MR MEDICI (Gate 5 - $51)
This horse ran a fairly good 6th in the Caulfield Cup in his first run since May. That's a concern for me, as after a tough run like that off a decent spell, horses often can't back it up next start. He's also not been tested beyond the 2400m. Gets Beadman, but even that isn't likely to be enough.

7. SHOOT OUT (Gate 17 - $31)
There can be no arguments about this horse's consistency. In 7 starts this preparation he's finished no worse than 4th, which is a tremendous credit to his trainer. His last 2 starts in the Cox Plate and the Mackinnon have suggested that he's now looking for this additional distance. Still has to rate as a slight doubt at the distance as he's untired at the trip and if the track stays very wet that would raise concerns too. You couldn't completely put the pen through him though simply because he's always around the mark. Good one for tri's & first4's.

8. AMERICAIN (Gate 12 - $12)
Won 3 races over in France before making the trip out. One of those wins was a narrow win over Manighar in a Group 2 over 3000m. His win in the Geelong Cup with 58kg was very good, and that race has become a reliable reference for the Melbourne Cup in the last decade. You'd have to think he'd improve off that run. Decent chance.

9. TOKAI TRICK (Gate 4 - $101)
9yo Japanese runner who is 2nd up after an pretty ordinary Caulfield Cup run, but you'd think Flemington and the rise in distance will suit. We know the Japanese should be respected after Delta Blues and Pop Rock were 1/2 a couple of years back. The difference between Tokai Trick and those 2 gallopers was the other 2 put in great runs in the Caulfield Cup, plus they ran into a relatively weak field. This is one of the strongest Cups in recent memory, and with that in mind I'm tipping he'll struggle.

10. BUCCELLATI (Gate 21 - $331)
Since coming to Australia, every run, with the possible exception of his run in the Turnbull, has been ordinary to say the least. If you draw him in the sweeps you'll be a real chance of a collect as he's a likely candidate for last place.

11. DESCARADO (Gate 1 - $12.50)
Caulfield Cup winner and as we know, that is the best form guide for this race. Conditions on Tuesday are likely to be similar to those on Caulfield Cup day, so that will be to his advantage. So You Think took care of him pretty easily in the Mackinnon yesterday, but a wet track may well bring them a bit closer together. Definite each way chance.

12. HARRIS TWEED (Gate 13 - $26)
Caulfield Cup runner-up, so alot of the comments on Descarado will apply to this guy too (ie. the wet track advantage etc). Ran 5th in the race last year, but is coming into this in better form this time around. He's a bit of a non-winner, and one of my personal rules is not backing horses who failed in their first tilt at winning this race becuase very few horses do it. Multiples chance at best.

13. MANIGHAR (Gate 20 - $19)
Another who put in a good performance in the Caulfield Cup. Had good form in France last year, but has been below that this year before showing signs of improvement in his last 2 runs. Trainer knows what horse it takes, and the track condition is likely to suit. Another with a hope.

14. MASTER O'REILLY (Gate 18 - $276)
No horse in the history of the Melbourne Cup has won from gate 18, and that's not likely to change on Tuesday as he hasn't won since 2007. Has run 4th in the last 2 Melbourne Cups, but his form this time in is terrible. This will be his last start and it won't be a fairytale finish. Cannot possibly win.

15. MONACO CONSUL (Gate 14 - $24)
Kiwi galloper who has a great record at 2400m, however he can throw in a shocker every now and then. To my eye, his was the best run of the beaten brigade in the Caulfield Cup. Shocking caught everyones eye, but this horse came from behind him at the 1000m and beat him home. He looks a Melbourne Cup type, and at the odds I think he's a decent chance.

16. PROFOUND BEAUTY (Gate 22 - $29)
After her 5th behind Viewed in 2008, I was keen to back her if she ever returned as she seemed a bit immature in that race. She's another who's returning in better form than her previous attempt. She seems pretty bulletproof, and the forecast conditions should suit. I've seen far worse $30 chances in previous Melbourne Cups ...

17. ZAVITE (Gate 7 - $151)
His form this preparation actually hasn't been all that bad. He's another returning for another shot with better lead up form than he had for his previous attempt. Caulfield Cup run was ok, and one of the most in form jockeys anywhere, Michael Walker, gets aboard. Happy to risk him winning, but I'll throw him in a couple of tri's and first4's as a blowout chance.

18. BAUER (Gate 2 - $76)
Runner up in 2008, when beaten an absolute whisker by Viewed. He's had a few issues since arriving, but was passed fit by vets on Friday. He's only had 2 runs since that 2nd placing 2 years ago and that's a major concern. I also think he'll need to dry to show his best. Unlikely.

19. HOLBERG (Gate 10 - $19)
As mentioned earlier, he's the supposed 2nd stringer from Godolphin, but I reckon he's the better chance. It appears that Frankie Dettori agrees, as he's elected to ride this one over Campanologist. He's lightly raced, with only 12 starts for 6 wins. He's looking for this trip, and I have him as the best of the internationals. Each way all day

20. PRECEDENCE (Gate 15 - $21)
A horse who has significantly improved this preparation, as shown by the face he's been penalised 3kg from his original handicap. However nagging in the back of the mind is a terrible run in the Sydney Cup over this trip, when many thought he was a real chance. He's in form, but on the evidence to date you'd risk him running out the 3200m. Under the odds.

21. RED RULER (Gate 8 - $331
Another Kiwi, who has never won a race on this side of the Tasman. Hasn't run any further than 2400m, and he favours dry tracks. Plenty against. No.

22. LINTON (Gate 23 - $22)
Lightly raced grey on an upward spiral. Had a light prep in the Autumn before being set for this. His 2 runs at 2400m+ have seen him pick up a win and a 2nd placing. Meets Maluckyday better at the weights after their meeting in the Lexus yesterday, but I was a bit disappointed with his run. I think he'll be a better horse in 12 months or so, but he's a rough chance this year.

23. ONCE WERE WILD (Gate 11 - $38)
Won the AJC Oaks in the Autumn, where her preparation was faultless. The same can't be said for her prep this time in though, which has seen a mix of good and poor runs. Very unlucky in the Geelong Cup, before a very tough run yesterday. The back up has to be a concern. Willing to take her on.

24. MALUCKYDAY (Gate 6 - $10)
Emerging stayer by Zabeel who has done everything asked of him this preparation. Never finished out of the placings. After his win on Saturday Jim Cassidy rated him the best stayer he's ridden since Kiwi, which is quite a statement considering he rode Might And Power. This is another massive step up but he'll be hitting the line at the death. Another with an each way chance.


TIPS
1st - #3 So You Think
2nd - #19 Holberg
3rd - #15 Monaco Consul

Roughie - #16 Profound Beauty

Good luck with whatever you back icon_thumbs_u

 

[Ari Gold]

Having snagged Holberg yesterday as some rather extreme odds I'd certainly be happy to see it win. Don't believe that Internationals who don't race in Australia first have a very good record though? I'll be hoping Godolphin use Camponologist as a bunny and shoot it to the lead and put speed into the race, as this is the only way you're going to beat SYT.

Having taken Once Were Wild at much longer odds I'd like to see her win, but feel that she too may be sacrificed for Descerado. Give her a slim hope if enough of the other runners take up the running. Feel that in order to win she needs to go off on her own at the turn home, much like she did in the Oaks.

Really struggling to see past So You Think as the winner though.

 

[Beachy]

Having snagged Holberg yesterday as some rather extreme odds I'd certainly be happy to see it win. Don't believe that Internationals who don't race in Australia first have a very good record though?

That's right ... most of the internationals who have performed in the cup have had at least one lead up run out here. I'm warming to him though although apparently he's being checked over by the vets again in the morning so there's obviously some lingering concern on the fitness front.

Sometimes it pays not to overlook the obvious though. I really think the champ just wins

 

[Jeba]

OK, this preview may not seem helpful, because there are plenty of horses in this race that I think are a chance to win. Might pay just to go So You Think for the win, but here's the two bobs worth anyway.

1. SHOCKING
Faultless prep but IMO he just has too much against him this year. Barrier no concern on a wet track but I think a heavy track, with 57kg he is a big risk. That and I wasn't too taken by his run the the McKinnon. On a dry track I'd rate him a chance but there's just a few too many crosses for him this year I think.

2. CAMPANOLOGIST
Happy to take this on. Have heard Saeed on the radio in the last few weeks saying they were really disappointed that Holberg would most likely not get a run as he considered him their best chance. I'll take that advice.

3. SO YOU THINK
Been trying to find a chink in the armour all spring, but he just keeps winning. He is a champion, and to be in the stands at Flemington on Saturday to witness his win in the MacKinnon was one of the most amazing moments I have ever experienced in my years of watching live sport. Would be even better to see him win the 150th Melbourne Cup. Obvious huge chance.

4. ZIPPING
In better form than ever, and he has run 4th in this race twice before. Nick Williams seemed very very upbeat about his chances at the barrier draw. He is a grand old galloper and Flemington is his favourite track, and I think he is a chance at odds. His run in the Cox Plate was very good, and he'll be given more time to wind up here.

5. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE
Geez I hate these, grinding English stayers with no turn of foot, who try to win our Cup. Keep him over there where he is a chance of winning a race. No hope.

6. MR MEDICI
Pretty good in the Caulfield Cup but it was a tough run on a heavy track, and second up over 3200m will find it hard to back that up. Wouldn't have him in the first dozen.

7. SHOOT OUT
If you're looking for Melbourne Cup trials, look no further than this bloke's last 3 runs. Their original target here was the Cox Plate but he has just developed into a horse that looks a real stayer. And to top it off, his run in the MacKinnon would've been exactly what they are looking for. Not sure if he can challenge So You Think or not but he will be running home giving himself every chance, and doing it for his good mate Stathi, RIP.

8. AMERICAIN
Impressive winner in the Geelong Cup which in recent times has proven a good guide to this race. Loving how he had a nice lead-up run here and you can guarantee he will run out the trip. Will be right up there for sure.

9. TOKAI TRICK
Never underestimate the Japanese after 2006 but I don't think this bloke is from the top line over there. Happy to leave him out.

10. BUCCELLATI
I reckon I'd have more of a chance if I was running.

11. DESCARADO[/b]
On form he is the best wet tracker in the race. Great win in the Caulfield Cup and a good run on Saturday, should race on the speed and be right up there. Definate hope.

12. HARRIS TWEED
He is a better horse than this time last year and ran a great race here last year, but I am concerned about the way he just hasn't finished off in his last couple of race. He loomed as if unbeatable in the Caulfield Cup but couldn't deliver the knockout blow, and the start before that at Flemington was similar, yet was able to hang on and win, against a poor field. To my eye, he just doesn't know what to do when he has his chance. I don't think he can win.

13. MANIGHAR
Has the form behind Americain and Holberg overseas, so on that basis I am happy to say that those two can beat him again. Always respect Cumani-Oliver, but IMO the form has him behind a few of them.

14. MASTER O'REILLY
No, how is he even in the race?

15. MONACO CONSUL
A must for the exotics this boy. His run in the Caulfield Cup was enormous, loves the wet going and will run out the trip. To my eye he is the best roughie in the race.

16. PROFOUND BEAUTY
Not sure she can handle the heavy track, so am happy to leave her out.

17. ZAVITE
Who knows with this bloke? The only one who can predict what type of race he will run is Zavite himself. Very up and down, but on the basis of 4 starts on a heavy for 4 unplaced runs I'll leave him out.

18. BAUER
Has only had 2 runs since his Melbourne Cup second to Viewed in 2008, so I would think he'd be lacking a bit of fitness. Both runs have been pretty ordinary too. Doubt he can reproduce 2008.

19. HOLBERG
You have to respect Godolphin, and they have said he is their best hope, so with not much else to look at, I'd give him a chance on the basis of that.

20. PRECEDENCE
Loving his form this time in. His win in the Moonee Valley Cup was better than it looked, and he is a much better horse this time in than what he was in the Autumn this year. Think with the light weight he is a hope.

21. RED RULER
After Tuesday, I call on Border Security to do their bit to keep this donkey out of Australia.

22. LINTON
Thought his run the other day was better than it looked, as he copped a nasty bump coming out of the straight the first time and had to do some extra work to settle into his position. Meanwhile Maluckyday was just smoking his pipe. I give him a hope, mind you there is a massive collect for me if he wins so I might be a tad biased [icon_wink

23. ONCE WERE WILD
Has gradually improved during the Spring but I don't think she is tough enough to beat these good stayers on a heavy track.

24. MALUCKYDAY
I am going to take him on. He had the easiest of runs in the Lexus and he won't get it here. Keep in mind the track was still Good the other day as well so he is untested on heavy ground. Not for me.

THE TIP
This is either the hardest Melbourne Cup of all time, or the easiest. It would be boring to tip So You Think, so I am going to pick you the trifecta with him not included, in the hope that in that regard he may not run out the trip. So I am going:

1. Shoot Out
2. Monaco Consul
3. Americain

Best Roughie (apart from Monaco Consul) - Zipping

 

[mrslong]

I haven't not made money off the cup since 2003, I gotta owe the last couple of years to Jeba icon_thumbs_u Thanks for the insight again Jeba.

You have to put a flutter on a Cummings horse to win the 150th. Surely. The Melbourne Cup is always one of those sporting events where the fairy tale comes true.

So I'm leaning towards So You Think, Ziping & Shocking...of course this will change a million times by the time I place my bets tomorrow.