2010 Spring Racing Carnival

[Jeba]

[icon_lol1. No worries mrslong, but the sad thing about that is that I haven't backed the Melbourne Cup winner since Ethereal in 2001 [eusa_doh (Did back Makybe Diva but so did everyone else so I don't count those in the record). But have been lucky with some each way bets at nice place odds, and there are plenty of good each way bets in the Cup this year I think. Just gotta find the right one!!!

 

[Fozz]

Ethereal was my last winner too.

 

[mrslong]

[icon_lol1. No worries mrslong, but the sad thing about that is that I haven't backed the Melbourne Cup winner since Ethereal in 2001 [eusa_doh (Did back Makybe Diva but so did everyone else so I don't count those in the record). But have been lucky with some each way bets at nice place odds, and there are plenty of good each way bets in the Cup this year I think. Just gotta find the right one!!!

[icon_lol1. That's so funny! I read your (I'm pretty sure it was you?) posts on the horses and couple that with my gut feeling....Shocking last year was nice, thanks icon_thumbs_u

I think I went with your favourite in 2008 (was that Cest La Guerre? IIRC it was paying nicely to place, phew)

And can you believe I never backed Makybe Diva :oops:
Luckily I had her in a couple of sweepstakes over the years and always had the place getters.

 

[pennywisealfie]

im gonna follow Jeb and follow my instincts with a few bets.

so ill put jebs top 3 in a trifecta and some money for a win on shoot out.

then Ill bet on my fave Americain for the win and a trifecta with Americain, so you think and someone else, maybe the caulfield cup winner

 

[Jeba]

Haha penny you are a brave man!!!

Yeh Mrs L my tip in 08 was Cest La Guerre so very happy to see it run third at $9, but still dirty it didn't get clear running at the top of the straight as he couldve won the bloody thing!!'

 

[Beachy]

The track is draining superbly. Back to a slow 7, and with no rain will likely get to a dead 5 by race time. So You Think just becomes a better bet IMO

 

[Dexter]

Can't knock any of Jebs calls except MLDay. I think he is a great each way bet although I would like to get better than 10-1 on offer ATM. Any horse that can break 12 secs for 5 consecutive furlongs at the finish of a 2500m race is a serious race horse.
Also like Shoot Out and the black horse of Barts ( If he can run out the 2 miles he wins) but it's his 3rd start in 10 days and technically he's not 4 yet.

I'll be working around SYThink, MlDay, Shootout and Descarado first and second and field for third.

 

[Bannermania]

Bauer has been scratched btw.

 

[The Brizz]

I said it last year about the disappointing effort from Viewed and will say it again about Descarado and Shocking I don't get the logic of running experienced horses on the Saturday prior over 2000m when they have come off great Caufield (2400m) preps. Both of them ran out of petrol today, sure the barrier didn't help Shocking as he worked hard to improve spots only to have to drop back to the tail when he couldn't sneak in. I don't see how it could be good gradually building the distance for a stayer only to drop him back to 2000m 3 days away from the big race add to that the conditions on Saturday were not good and I can't imagine any horses on those longer preps felt great after that slog. Shocking should have been kept away from the track until today after that massive Caufield Cup run and I would be interested to see the how many times a horse who won the cup coming through the Caufield Cup also ran on Derby Day.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I think I want to get into the punting a bit more, I quite enjoy horse racing and even the dish lickers..

 

[Jeba]

I said it last year about the disappointing effort from Viewed and will say it again about Descarado and Shocking I don't get the logic of running experienced horses on the Saturday prior over 2000m when they have come off great Caufield (2400m) preps. Both of them ran out of petrol today, sure the barrier didn't help Shocking as he worked hard to improve spots only to have to drop back to the tail when he couldn't sneak in. I don't see how it could be good gradually building the distance for a stayer only to drop him back to 2000m 3 days away from the big race add to that the conditions on Saturday were not good and I can't imagine any horses on those longer preps felt great after that slog. Shocking should have been kept away from the track until today after that massive Caufield Cup run and I would be interested to see the how many times a horse who won the cup coming through the Caufield Cup also ran on Derby Day.

There are plenty of reasons why you would though. One of the main ones is giving the horse a decent look at Flemington, with the big open track, and the big loud crowd, so they know what to expect in the big one. A Melbourne Cup race is so vastly different to every other race in this country and a lot of trainers like to put the horse through similar conditions before running in the Grand Final.

Another for the MacKinnon in particular, is that it is run under weight for age conditions, and more often than not those backing up in the Cup will carry a lot less weight than what they did in the MacKinnon, and that gives the horse a good psycological advantage and gives them a sense that they can relax a bit more.

Running a stayer over 2000 metres will very rarely affect a horse's Melbourne Cup prep, and if a stayer is going to be knocked up after a 2000m race, there is no chance they will win the Cup anyway. A few horses that were already in the Cup ran on Saturday and ran awful, and subsequently the trainers pulled them out. It always gives a good indication as to whether or not a horse is right for a 3200m handicap race.

 

[The Brizz]

Thing is it is hailed as the tactic that Bart uses, his last two winners; Saintly (came straight out of the Cox Plate and didn't run again til Cup day) and Viewed who ran like a busted arse on McKinnon day and blew everyones mind when he suddenly turned up on Cup Day. I get your logic I really do but I just don't see why you run a horse who is experienced and knows Flemington that close to their grand final, its like warming up for a Rugby League GF by playing a beaten semi finalist in a friendly 2 days beforehand.

 

[Dave]

I would be interested to see the how many times a horse who won the cup coming through the Caufield Cup also ran on Derby Day.

2009 - Shocking - Ran over 2400m in the Herbert Power on CC Day then into the Lexus on Derby Day and the won the cup on Tuesday. Seemed to suit him last year Brizz - he is a much better horse than he showed today, he pulled up sore and he had a horror run in the race with a big weight - it wasn't the preparation that bought him undone. 17 of the last 40 winners of the MC have run in the Mackinnon on Derby Day and 10 of those 17 also ran in the CC. Most notable exception was the Diva who never started on Derby Day but she always had her runs spaced throughout her career.

You will get your money back in plenty of weight for age races next year mate.

 

[The Brizz]

I would be interested to see the how many times a horse who won the cup coming through the Caufield Cup also ran on Derby Day.

2009 - Shocking - Ran over 2400m in the Herbert Power on CC Day then into the Lexus on Derby Day and the won the cup on Tuesday. Seemed to suit him last year Brizz - he is a much better horse than he showed today, he pulled up sore and he had a horror run in the race with a big weight - it wasn't the preparation that bought him undone. 17 of the last 40 winners of the MC have run in the Mackinnon on Derby Day and 10 of those 17 also ran in the CC. Most notable exception was the Diva who never started on Derby Day but she always had her runs spaced throughout her career.

You will get your money back in plenty of weight for age races next year mate.

Thanks for the stats, I know you guys know plenty more than I do about racing but that is just my casual observations on it. Shocking had to win on Derby Day last year hence the reason he ran and like Maluckyday it was a huge run that carried momentum into the Tuesday. I was gutted when he drew 24 and I knew I was done after about 500m because he surged out but so did the 2 or 3 next to him so he couldn't cut across and get on the rail near midfield, had to drop back and sleep from last after using a big amount of juice. I also thought he didn't look as strong hitting the line on Saturday as he has all Spring and maybe he wasn't quite right then because he certainly didn't look himself out there today either. Ah well, he will be back I am sure and I will get plenty of opportunities to curse him for flashing home for fourths.

 

[Dave]

Agreed mate - he had absolutely no luck today, I reckon at one stage he was midfield and then Rodd had no other option than to go back to last. Watching the other races today you almost had to be in the middle of the track where the placegetters came from to be any chance of winning. Combine that with an injury and that was the end of him. With a better barrier and a drier, fairer track I reckon he runs a place for sure. Worst thing is that he is almost weighted out of handicap racing now - I think he was harshly treated jumping from 51kg to 57kg in 12 months.

I hope he can get back because he is a popular horse with plenty of ability. I reckon he could win the Cox Plate if Kav set him for it.

 

[pennywisealfie]

Ill bet on my fave Americain for the win

yeeeah boi!

 

[mrslong]

Damn You Jeba [icon_lol1.

 

[Jeba]

Hey don't blame me I tipped Americain each way and tipped two of the first 4 home ;-)