2010 Spring Racing Carnival

[Jeba]

Well, this now deserves its own thread as we head into the big races, with the first of the big 3 only 6 days away, the Caulfield Cup. That race looks to have plenty of winning chances with the favourites Metal Bender and Alcopop having excellent runs in their last starts, and there's no denying the class of Shocking, Dariana and Faint Perfume.

The Cox Plate - they're all saying it's a race in two and it looks that way between So You Think and More Joyous. But I'll say it again - you can never be sure about 4yo's in the Cox Plate with the big weight rise from their 3yo season. Sure, these two look the only real chances at the moment, but IMO that means there will be a few in the field at very backable odds.

And for the big one, the Melbourne Cup, well I've liked Linton for a while so very happy with his win yesterday.

Looking forward to the Caulfield Cup to kick it off!

 

[The Brizz]

Don't know who to back at Caufield as yet its very open, will take Zipping in the Cox Plate because I reckon with those top two a lot of the attention goes off Zipping's great last start win and he starts at very juicy odds. I already have money on Shocking for the Cup so I don't have a decision to make although as you say Jeb Linton looks very promising and is asking for the long journey.

 

[Dave]

Caulfied Cup is a very hard race this year. As usual the Sydney horses look to have the best form but it doesn't always work out that way. Metal Bender was enormous last start, Herculian Prince gets in extremely well at the weights. You probably have to forgive Dariana for her poor run last start and Faint Perfume was good last time also. I am warming towards Shocking for the CC - I know Flemington is his best track but he is going great guns and I think 2400 is his best distance.

Cox Plate looks over now - So You Think is a champion and barring injury he could do a Kingston Town and win 3 Plates in a row - remember he was still technically a 2yo when he won it last year. I love Zipping and I think Shoot Out could run a big race with a jockey change but for me it's not a race to bet in - sit back with beverage in hand and salute a champion as he wins his 2nd Cox Plate

Melbourne Cup will be very interesting - will Bart run So You Think? Can Shocking carry the weight to a 2nd straight cup? What about the imports - there is usually 1 or 2 who run well and the Japanese are back this year. Come on Lloyd, keep the grey going - it doesn't look to be a vintage MC so I think Linton can get away with it this year. Dariana is a chance and for a couple of roughies I think Monaco Consul (no luck last 2 starts and likes Flemington) and Harris Tweed (ran well in the cup last year and is going better this year) could run well.

The race of the Spring though could be Hay List v Black Caviar - 2 outstanding sprinters with freakish records. I think Hay List will have her measure though

Retrieve looks good for the Derby and I think a filly by the name of Brazilian Pulse is a good thing in the Oaks if she gets there (back her on Wednesday in the 1000 Guineas first though) Also make sure you are on Palacio De Cristal whenever she starts at Flemington.

 

[Jeba]

Caulfield Cup field before barrier draw.

1 SHOCKING Mark Kavanagh Michael Rodd 57 118
2 METAL BENDER (NZ) Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 56 116
3 MR MEDICI (IRE) Peter Ho Gerald Mosse 55 112
4 TOKAI TRICK (JPN) Kenji Nonaka Shinji Fujita 54.5 111
5 BUCCELLATI (GB) Tony Noonan Steven King 54 108
6 HARRIS TWEED (NZ) Murray & Bjorn Baker Brad Rawiller 54 109
7 MANIGHAR (FR) Luca Cumani Damien Oliver 54 110
8 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) Danny O'Brien Dwayne Dunn 54 107
9 MONACO CONSUL (NZ) Michael Moroney Craig Williams 54 108
10 TRIPLE HONOUR (NZ) Chris Waller Larry Cassidy 54 114
11 ZAVITE (NZ) Anthony Cummings Ben Melham 54 110
12 ALCOPOP Jake Stephens Mark Zahra 53.5 108
13 HERCULIAN PRINCE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse Glyn Schofield 53.5 2.0 110
14 ZABRASIVE (NZ) John O'Shea Craig Newitt 53 107
15 DESCARADO (NZ) Gai Waterhouse Chris Munce 52.5 111
16 JESSICABEEL (NZ) John O'Shea James Winks 52.5 108
17 FAINT PERFUME Bart Cummings Glen Boss 52 108
18 DARIANA Bart Cummings Luke Nolen 51.5 109
19e MOURAYAN (IRE) Robert Hickmott Nicholas Hall 53.5 107
20e RED RULER (NZ) John Sargent Mark Du Plessis 53.5 107
21e DRUNKEN SAILOR (IRE) Luca Cumani 53 108
22e VALDEMORO Tony Vasil Jason Maskiell (a) 50

 

[Jeba]

My early thoughts before the barrier draw just point straight to two horses - Metal Bender and Alcopop, in that order. See what happens tomorrow though.

 

[The Brizz]

I quite like Mourayan but the barrier draw will make for interesting reading.

 

[Woody]

The draw has been made:

1 SHOCKING 12
2 METAL BENDER (NZ) 2
3 MR MEDICI (IRE) 16
4 TOKAI TRICK (JPN) 21
5 BUCCELLATI (GB) 17
6 HARRIS TWEED (NZ) 9
7 MANIGHAR (FR) 3
8 MASTER O'REILLY (NZ) 10
9 MONACO CONSUL (NZ) 15
10 TRIPLE HONOUR (NZ) 11
11 ZAVITE (NZ) 19
12 ALCOPOP 22
13 HERCULIAN PRINCE (NZ) 6
14 ZABRASIVE (NZ) 13
15 DESCARADO (NZ) 18
16 JESSICABEEL (NZ) 20
17 FAINT PERFUME 7
18 DARIANA 8
19e MOURAYAN (IRE) 5
20e RED RULER (NZ) 1
21e DRUNKEN SAILOR (IRE) 4
22e VALDEMORO 14

 

[Beachy]

Alcopop is the lay of the century - even if he drew a gate. Dariana is the one I want to be with.

 

[Jeba]

Haha Beachman, world's biggest Alcopop hater. Nobody buy him a Bacardi Breezer!!

On early look I reckon Metal Bender.

 

[The Brizz]

If Mourayan doesn't get in I don't think I will have a bet, just enjoy what looks like a very open race. Shocking is the best horse in the field but the track and the preparation may mean he doesn't quite get to the line first.

 

[Beachy]

Haha Beachman, world's biggest Alcopop hater. Nobody buy him a Bacardi Breezer!!

On early look I reckon Metal Bender.

Potting the trainer more than the horse. Reckon it could've won the Melbourne Cup last year with a better trainer

Besides, I'm a bookie. We've gotta pot the faves [icon_lol1.

 

[Jeba]

Haha good point, on both counts!

He is obviously a talented horse, his win in the Herbert Power was as good as you'll see against a field that included the Melbourne Cup winner, over this exact course and distance which is why I give him a chance.

Might do a preview.

 

[ningnangnong]

Might do a preview.

Yes please!

I was planning on studying the form guide come Saturday morning, but a preview from BHQ's resident racing expert would be pretty helpful as well. :mrgreen:

 

[Jeba]

]

Might do a preview.

Yes please!

I was planning on studying the form guide come Saturday morning, but a preview from BHQ's resident racing expert would be pretty helpful as well. :mrgreen:

[icon_lol1. There's other experts here too!!!

 

[Jeba]

1. SHOCKING
Obvious hope on current form. Very similar form to Viewed last year, who won this race. My only query is the wet. It looks like the track will be slow bordering on heavy. He has had 5 starts on a slow or heavy for just the 1 win, that being said it was a ripper win in the Makybe Diva this year. Anyway, mad to leave him out.

2. METAL BENDER
Top pick and I think this is the best horse in the race. He has an appropriate name because he is just tough as nails. Will get the perfect run from the inside barrier here (well it will be barrier 2 if Red Ruler gets a run which I doubt he will). He has been crying out for a staying test all prep and I think he is just the perfect Caulfield Cup horse here. My pick for the win.

3. MR MEDICI
I don't think he will win this but I would not be surprised to see him run a good race. Has good form in Hong Kong over some of their best horses, so I am wary of him. Like I said, not prepared to back him, but keeping an eye on him.

4. TOKAI TRICK
The Japanese raider. Have a look at Unitab at the moment and you'll find this bloke is 66-1. Considering the demolition job the Japs did on us last time they came out, that looks to be a touch overs to my eye. I have not seem him race or anything, and normally when they race for the first time in Australia the money stays off, but Japan's stayers are the world's best so I will put him in the quaddie for a bit of value.

5. BUCCELLATI
No hope here. Has shown nothing all prep and is completely outclassed.

6. HARRIS TWEED
Not the worst at big odds. His run in the Melbourne Cup last year was enormous and he has backed that up with good racing and a win at his last start. My only query with him is he may find this a bit too short, think he will be aiming at the first Tuesday in November. So no bet, but could run well.

7. MANIGHAR
Not even going to look at the form. European horse, hasn't had a run in Australia. No bet.

8. MASTER O'REILLY
This horse is just a prick of a thing. Hasn't won a race in 3 years (being the 2007 Caulfield Cup), and just keeps running on in races and sucking the punters in. The fact that he gets automatic start in the Melbourne Cup is a disgrace. If I could have one wish in racing it would be to ship this horse off to another country to race. Cost the punters a fortune in the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and even a win here at 100-1 wouldn't see them end up even.

9. MONACO CONSUL
Been disappointing since his win in the Derby last year and would have to really turn it around to be any hope here. Might run well but I doubt he can win.

10. TRIPLE HONOUR
Not upto the class. If he was a hope he'd have won the Craven Plate in Sydney but was beaten by Cest La Guerre who hadn't won a race since the 2008 NZ Derby before that.

11. ZAVITE
Will probably be thereabouts for most of the race but won't be holding on when the pressure goes on.

12. ALCOPOP
Beachy told me that this is his top pick in the race [icon_wink
Nah, I give him a hope based on his last run. Talented horse who I think is capable of winning a Group 1 race. But geez, terrible barrier so he will have to be at his best.

13. HERCULIAN PRINCE
Depends on the bit lifter. Honestly who knows with this bloke. Donkey licked them in the Metrop but the field in that race didn't have the class of what he is up against here. Another who will be in the leading bunch for most of the race, but I am prepared to risk him and say he can't hold on.

14. ZABRASIVE
Not likely here. Has shown nothing this prep and I don't think he will run the trip.

15. DESCARADO
Another who will be in the leading bunch, and from barrier 18 should set a decent tempo to give all horses a hope but I don't think he can hold on for the win or a place.

16. JESSICABEEL
Sydney Cup winner who comes through the Turnbull, but there are a few out of that race I would back before her. Might run well but I doubt she can win.

17. FAINT PERFUME
Blinkers go on, and I think she is a massive chance in this. Group 1 Glen Boss has the ride and trained by the Master, so I reckon she is a big chance and nice each way odds.

18. DARIANA
Another of Bart's, and another who is a big hope. Brained them in the QLD Derby and has come on nicely since that race and has the form jockey in Victoria to ride, so another big hope in the race.

19E. MOURAYAN
Decent showing in the Metrop under a terrible ride and from the Lloyd Williams stable which is now flying this Spring, but I don't think he has the turn of foot to win a Caulfield Cup. If he gets a run that is.

20E. RED RULER
If he gets a run he is no hope.

21E. DRUNKEN SAILOR
Another European, and no hope.

22E. VALDEMORO
Has been a big disappointment this prep and won't get a run anyway.

THE TIP
I think Metal Bender will win. Just looks like his timing is perfect for this race. Other hopes are Shocking, Alcopop, Faint Perfume and Dariana. But Metal Bender well on top for mine, and be wary of the Japanese horse at big odds.

 

[ningnangnong]

]

Might do a preview.

Yes please!

I was planning on studying the form guide come Saturday morning, but a preview from BHQ's resident racing expert would be pretty helpful as well. :mrgreen:

[icon_lol1. There's other experts here too!!!

Yeah, but they all seem to keep their tips to themselves in the LXG forum...greedy bastards! [icon_razz1

 

[Jeba]

[icon_lol1. Haven't seen a tip in there for years [icon_wink

 

[Beachy]

Doing this assuming the track will be rated heavy ...

1. SHOCKING ($6.50)
Racing well this prep, and has been well backed this week. Heavy track form is good. Would much prefer him at Flemington though. Happy to take him on. at Caulfield

2. METAL BENDER ($6 FAV)
Looks to be wanting the 2400m. Super win 1st-up when he flashed home, but since then has been grinding to the line. Wet track form is good enough. Definite chance, but I don't think I can back him at that price on a heavy track.

3. MR MEDICI ($19)
Beat some very good horses in his last start over 2400m in Hong Kong, but an overall record of 5 wins from 33 starts means he can go around without mine. Bookmakers taking no risks

4. TOKAI TRICK ($67)
Not raced since May 2, where he was beaten 12L in the Tenno Sho over 3200m. Cannot.

5. BUCCELLATI ($101)
Making up the numbers

6. HARRIS TWEED ($31)
Liked his win last start, although it was against the B & C-grade stayers. The heavy track brings him right into it though. Could do worse than have an each way ticket on him.

7. MANIGHAR ($13)
Trainer knows what type of horse to bring out here for the Spring features. Great distance stats, and good record on giving tracks in the UK, which tend to be softer than the tracks here. Would've preferred him to have a start or 2 out here, but not bagging.

8. MASTER O'REILLY ($101)
If he wins I'll give up the punt. If you want to back him, I'll give you better than the $101 if you back him with me.

9. MONACO CONSUL ($28)
The wet ground should suit him (won the 2009 Spring Champion on a bog track), but he's not going well enough this prep.

10. TRIPLE HONOUR ($31)
Respectable stats on wet tracks, but a huge distance doubt for mine. $31 is unders.

11. ZAVITE ($101)
Put in a couple of good runs early this prep, but last start was a shocker. Doesn't handle wet tracks. No.

12. ALCOPOP ($8)
Good run last start, which saw him shorten into equal favourite before the barrier draw. Has since drawn out in the car park, and has drifted as a result. As mentioned earlier in this thread, I'm potting him, primarily on the trainer. Would've been a winning chance in last years Melbourne Cup if the trainer hadn't sent him into the race with a month between runs. I can't have him.

13. HERCULIAN PRINCE ($7.50)
Apart from the race where he choked down, he's been going very well this prep. This field is stronger than the field he beat in the Metrop though. I think he's a winning chance, but I can't help feel his odds are a tad short. If he gets out to $9 he's backable IMO.

14. ZABRASIVE ($41)
Hasn't come up this preparation to my eye. Unlikely.

15. DESCARADO ($31)
Put in a shocker last start. Would've conceded him some chance if not for that. He's the likely leader but I can't see him holding on.

16. JESSICABEEL ($51)
Won the Sydney Cup in the Autumn, but has been racing poorly this prep. Would take a massive form reversal to win. Surely not.

17. FAINT PERFUME ($10)
Reckon her form has been better than it looks on paper. Last run would've topped her off nicely for this. Can handle the wet tracks. Definite chance

18. DARIANA ($10)
I really like her, although my confidence has wained since the rain has come. Unplaced from 2 runs on wet ground so far.
Probably still a chance, although not as strong a push as I would've given had it been dry.

19E. MOURAYAN ($26)
Should've finished a lot closer in the Metrop, was 3 wide for a long way. Probably won't get a start, but if he sneaks in he's a cheeky each way chance.

20E. RED RULER ($101)
Wont run, can't win

21E. DRUNKEN SAILOR ($41)
Hard to line up. Won't get a start.

22E. VALDEMORO ($67)
Outclassed.

TIPS
Changed my tune a bit due to the forecast wet track ...

1. #17 Faint Perfume
2. #13 Herculian Prince
3. #18 Dariana

Best Roughie - #6 Harris Tweed