Finals Week 3 - Sea Eagles vs Broncos - Build Up Thread

[Bucking Beads]

Only small reason I can see the broncos not winning is if they are spooked by the unusually small crowd..

 

[Porthoz]

Only small reason I can see the broncos not winning is if they are spooked by the unusually small crowd..

ROFL :lol:

 

[mrslong]

We'll also be up against the ref's I reckon. Trying to keep the last Sydney team alive.

 

[Bucking Beads]

We'll also be up against the ref's I reckon. Trying to keep the last Sydney team alive.

This will happen but we faced that last week and got the job done.

 

[Coxy]

Only small reason I can see the broncos not winning is if they are spooked by the unusually small crowd..

Gould talked about that on the weekend. Broncos have had 4 games in a row with big crowds at home, everyone riding them home. Now they go to Sydney where the crowd will be hostile. How they adapt to that change of environment could be pivotal.

That said, the Broncos away record is bloody good this year. Won 8 out of 12 (and one of the losses was the "away" game at Suncorp in the double header 2 days after Origin 1 (no Lockyer).
Another was that debacle wet game in Perth against Souths (which we lost by 4) - Lockyer played.
Melbourne spanked us in Melbourne coming out of the Origin period into the run home (arguably a game that set us on the right track) - Lockyer played.
And the other was to Penrith where we were simply flat and out played - Lockyer played.

 

[schmix]

I am more nervous now but only because this game has just become even more of a "must win" from my perspective. If Locky played, we tried out guts out, and lost - I could cope with that as a send off for the great man. I'd hate to think he was forced to sit back and watch his last chance to play go down the gurgler, and not be able to do anything about it. That would NOT be part of my fairytale.

On the other hand, if the boys manage to pull a win out and Locky is fit to play in the GF - we would seriously have about 80% of ANZ stadium cheering for us I reckon. This has been one hell of a rollercoaster season and all the Bronco-haters have been transformed.

 

[Dannymh]

Remember Round 12 without Locky, Hodges, Thaiday (and if I recall, Te'o went down?). We were on top in the first half and but for a run away in the end by Manly we were very competitive.

Three weeks ago we were in 3rd gear against a largely unchanged Manly pack.

The trick to this game will be Brisbane absolutely smashing Manly all night. The key difference will be us getting on top of Foran and DCE and McCullough and Wallace using smart 5th tackle kicking options.

Locky back for the GF!! Bring on the Storm.

The flipside is that I'm PO'd that for the 3rd final series in a row we've had a key injury.

It's a perfect platform for the 2012+. Locky, he's brought you so far, now it's your turn to take responsibility for your own destiny.

Largely unchanged manly? You are kidding
No g Stewart
No b Stewart
No foran
No king
No wolfman
No Lussick
No hoppa

That's a big chunk of salary cap and team right there, especially with a forward playing in the halves.

From a manly supporters view, we were all over the moon with manly's performance in that game, to only lose by 8 with half the team out was a huge effort.

 

[Coxy]

Largely unchanged manly? You are kidding
No g Stewart
No b Stewart
No foran
No king
No wolfman
No Lussick
No hoppa

That's a big chunk of salary cap and team right there, especially with a forward playing in the halves.

From a manly supporters view, we were all over the moon with manly's performance in that game, to only lose by 8 with half the team out was a huge effort.

Think he means the forwards. Pack then:

Galuvao, Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Rodney, Mauro. Int: Rose, Williams, Seu Seu, Robinson.

This week:

Galuvao, Ballin, Kite, Watmough, Williams, Rodney. Int: Robinson, Buhrer, Mauro, Rose, Seu Seu.

Big difference is, as you say, Foran back in the halves, and B. Stewart at fullback. But if the Broncos pack dominate like they did last week, it's going to be hard for Foran/DCE to create much. That'll be the key.

 

[m1c]

Honestly, I think we're done. There are no words able to describe Locky's influence on this footie team. Over the last few years he has evolved into the most complete player I have seen. He calls every play - play by play; directs every player where to be and what to do. This is just his influence on our general play. Everyone would agree his uncanny ability to rally our team, pull us together or come up with that clutch play is immeasurable.

With him last week we scored two tries. We won't see a capitulation under Griffin like we saw in our last preliminary final. Our defence will hold strong. However I just can't see how we can score enough points against arguably better defence without him.

Side note: who's going to skipper?

 

[Coxy]

Disagree on your assessment of our doneness :P

However, regarding captaincy, Locky said previously this year Parker has been vice captain and stepped up in his absence, however with Thaiday being named next year's skipper he's not sure.

 

[Kaz]

Honestly, I think we're done. There are no words able to describe Locky's influence on this footie team. Over the last few years he has evolved into the most complete player I have seen. He calls every play - play by play; directs every player where to be and what to do. This is just his influence on our general play. Everyone would agree his uncanny ability to rally our team, pull us together or come up with that clutch play is immeasurable.

With him last week we scored two tries. We won't see a capitulation under Griffin like we saw in our last preliminary final. Our defence will hold strong. However I just can't see how we can score enough points against arguably better defence without him.

Side note: who's going to skipper?

Reading your dooms day post, he don't need a skipper, as it will be a waste of time.

 

[Coxy]

Reading your dooms day post, he don't need a skipper, as it will be a waste of time.

Yep, forfeit now.

 

[noisetheory]

i'll just put a 100 bucks on manly to win. thatll gaurentee a broncs win.

 

[Kaz]

Anyone got a Locky face mask that one of the players can wear.

Some players aren't the brightest & may think Lockyer is playing. :haha:

 

[Steve]

With him last week we scored two tries. We won't see a capitulation under Griffin like we saw in our last preliminary final. Our defence will hold strong. However I just can't see how we can score enough points against arguably better defence without him.

That's the key point. The outcome of the game will depend on what Wallace, McCullough and Gillett can produce in attack. I've got no doubt we'll defend ourselves into the ground and our line will hold up well.

But the Manly defence is first class and they won't leak many points. It's also why Corey needs to be on song with his goal kicking. I'm certain we'll take penalty goals if they're presented to us and back our defence to win but we need at least a couple of tries though.

 

[Coxy]

Line up comparison.

Fullback
Gerard Beale vs Brett Stewart.
Both are safe under the high ball. Both return the ball well. Both are good cover defenders.
Stewart has the edge in his contribution to the Manly attacking line.

Right Brisbane vs Left Manly
Jharal Yow Yeh, Justin Hodges, Matt Gillett (assuming he replaces Lockyer), Sam Thaiday
vs
Michael Robertson, Steve Matai, Kieran Foran, Tony Williams

What a match up! You'd probably say Yow Yeh has the edge in flashiness over Robertson, but you'd be more confident in Robertson being safe, particularly in defence.
Matai vs Hodges, wow! Two great defensive centres who are also tough...some would say, grubs. Hodges probably the edge in attacking strike power.
Foran vs Gillett, well, obviously Foran has it all over Gillett in attack in terms of kicking, playmaking, organisation, but no doubt Gillett has the strength advantage/tackle breaking/offload ability.
Williams vs Thaiday. Can't wait for some collisions here. *drooling*
Hard to split, but I think Thaiday and Hodges win their individual battles, as does Foran, so slightest of edge to the Broncos.

Middle
Hannant, McCullough, Parker, McGuire
vs
Galuvao, Ballin, Rodney, Kite

This is where I think the Broncos have an advantage. Even with Hannant being slightly down on form, he is still at the least equal with Kite and certainly better than Galuvao. Ballin has the edge over Macca in terms of overall experience and accomplishment, but Macca is in great form too. Parker has been senastional all year, and while Rodney is good, I think Parker wins this individual battle. McGuire is absolutely killing it right now, and Kite I don't think has ever lived up to the hype.

I give the Broncos an advantage here.

Broncos Left vs Manly Right
Copley, Reed, Wallace, Glenn
vs
Hopoate, Lyon, Cherry-Evans, Watmough

Very interesting battle this one. Hopoate is well ahead of Copley. Lyon's form combined with experience probably gives him the edge over Reed, but Reed is far from a slouch. Cherry-Evans is having a superb rookie year, but he is a rookie, and Wallace does have more big match experience which, hopefully comes to the fore. Alex Glenn will have no fear of Watmough, but I think they'd be very close.
You'd have to say Manly have the edge on this side.

Interchange
Hunt, Anderson, Te'o, Hala
vs
Robinson, Buhrer, Mauro, Rose (assuming Seu Seu drops off).

Broncos with a replacement hooker, 2 props and a back rower.
Manly with 3 back rowers and a prop.
I suspect Manly will run with this combination so they have more fresh legs up front, especially in the middle, where the Broncos do seem to have an advantage in form at the moment. Broncos with a rookie in Hala, but 3 other fairly experienced guys, while Manly have Robinson, Buhrer and Mauro who are all in their first full seasons of first grade.
On experience alone, you'd have to give the Broncos a slight edge here.

Really hard to split the teams on paper, even with Lockyer out.

 

[Steve]

Great analysis Coxy. We've got an excellent record in close games this year. Would be interested to know how many games we've won in the 1-6 point range. It would have to be a fair few. If it's close you wouldn't expect our players to tighten up.

 

[subsbligh]

Line up comparison.

Putting Lockyer to one side, the difference in this Friday's game and the Round 26 (or the Round 12) clash is minimal.

We just have to get on the board early and not let Manly score any lazy tries otherwise they are sensational front runners (Warriors game two weeks ago) and we won't have the attacking flair to play from behind.

I genuinely believe that Manly cannot compete at the intensity level of either the Broncos or the Dragons last Saturday night. If we bring that game (which has little to do with Lockyer being on the field) we can win this one.