Premiership Chances

[Big Pete]

Good morning everyone

With only 9 teams left in the running, we're edging closer and closer to the 2015 NRL Grand Final. How will those 9 teams fair? Are Manly well and truly dead? Or will the Sea Eagles turn into phoinex's? Can the Broncos go all the way? Will the Cowboys finally break their duck? Can Rabbits go back to back.

Plenty to ponder, BHQ what's your take on these 9 teams?

 

[I bleed Maroon]

I think the Dragons, Bulldogs and possibly the Rabbitohs are complete write offs. Merge are lucky to be in the finals at all (Manly won't make it, lets be honest. They basically need to win 2 games in 1 round), while the Dogs just lost the only player they have resembling a playmaker in Hodkinson. Reynolds isn't a playmakers arsehole and is more a liability than a help. Having a huge front row and bench doesn't mean shit if you can't score points.

The Rabbitohs tell their own story. Inglis gorn, Sutton gorn and Luke suspended AGAIN. They have no leaders left, their backline has some serious dudds in it and the younger Burgess brothers can't fill the gap Sam and Te'o left. If the Roosters smash them next weekend, they'll be out in the first round.

Melbourne are a bit of an enigma at the moment. They beat the Cows in a pretty controlled affair sure, and they seemed to relish exposing J.T without Morgan on field, but they only won by 8 points at home. How much of a run they give us at home next week will probably say a lot about where they are really at, but if Bennett rests crucial players, that obviously won't mean shit. They obviously can still finish top 4 so if things fall our way, we might be taking them on in consecutive weeks at home. That would be amazing, the shoe is on the other foot for once and Melbourne will be our doormat to the Premiership for once.

Cronulla.....I seriously doubt are going to amount to anything. They seem to think they have this reputation of pulling it out of the fire and slaying the giants, but they haven't fucking slayed us. They've played us once this year, in round 2, and we beat them. Sloppily, but we got the job done. That was when we were at our worst. If we play them at Suncorp in the first round, I think we will absolutely trample them. They won't be coming back to win from a 24 point deficit THIS time.

The Cowboys. I dearly hope they make it opposite us at the Grand Final, I really do, but if our next premiership has to come at their cost if we finish first to their third, then so be it. The derby in the first round if things stay how they are will be a blockbuster. There won't be a seat empty in the whole fucking joint. I dare not question their chances as opposed to us because the derby is always a bloody affair. Whatever happens will happen, but if Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford end up being the slayers of J.Ts last real chance at a premiership, well.......They could write their names in history.

Lastly, you would absolutely have to refer to the Roosters as our biggest rivals. They are missing their most important prop....and their halfback, and they have not missed a beat. That might just say more about Manly than us, since we lost to them by a much slimmer margin at their home ground, but I swore to hell and back that Manly would be up for that game for Tooveys sake and they got destroyed. At Brookvale. The Roosters will very likely be at the Grand Final.

Should I even comment on us? Who the hell knows what happens for us from here on out, but Master Bennett has turned this club into a war machine again, one that every other fanbase was vehemently denying would ever amount to anything and yet here we are, 2 finals away from our first Grand Final since 2006, and our first minor premiership since the turn of the millennium still up in the air. Considering nobody, including fans we count amongst us ever gave them a chance in hell, I think they're in a perfect fucking position to win it all. Top of the table, no injury issues bar McGuire which isn't really affecting us anyway and we've got the best ever at the helm.

No matter what happens, I cannot fucking wait.

 

[Rhys van Beurden]

Isn't it trendy to say the Bulldogs are a smoky? Des Hasler knows how to get a team prepared for the finals etc etc.

 

[Financeguy]

Roosters - A very good chance to take it out this year but will miss JWH aggression in the finals. Still strong across the park with some real strike weapons in RTS, Jennings and Ferguson. Could also draw the Sharks week 1 which is a nice result for them. Deserved favorites at this stage imo.

Broncos - Have not had a lot of finals success lately and not much finals experience among the team except for a few senior players. Having said that they have been outstanding this year and i think if they can beat the Cowboys week 1 we will get to the grand final. If we lose in week 1 it could be straight sets if we draw a Bulldogs or Storm week 2 and panic sets in on a sudden death game. Lets not forget Bennett has bowed out in finals before with some very talented teams. I still fear our goal kicking will hurt us at some stage vs. Maloney/Thurston/Reynolds.

Cowboys - Something keeps me from thinking the Cowboys are the real deal in terms of the premiership. Maybe its the way they offer so many early points in games, maybe its the injuries to Tamou and Morgan but i still don't feel it is their time to win. I guess they are due some luck in finals and i expect them to lift big time against the Broncos week 1. Similar to the Broncos if they can win week 1 i think they will make the grand final but would back whoever is playing them.

Sharks - A spoiling and tough type team who i don't think have the class across the 17 players to win a GF. I think most clubs would secretly be hoping it is the Sharks that get in their way on the road to the grand final.

Storm - One of 2 bogey sides to a Roosters vs. Broncos/Cowboys GF. On their day they can compete with anyone, they just have less of those days in them now than years gone by. I no longer fear them as a Broncos fan but does not mean i don't think they are capable of going on a GF run. Would prefer to avoid them compared to other teams.

Bulldogs - The other side that could prevent the 2 of the top 3 in the GF. It is trendy to have the Bulldogs as a smokey, and for good reason, they tend to over perform at finals time and Hasler has form at this time of year. They have the pack to bully any team in the comp if it is a battle up front and with the Morris twins and a surprise season from Rona, have the strike power and finishing to get the scoreboard ticking over. Hodkinson isnt a massive loss imo, they are a club used to playing with a wonky halves setup.

Rabbits - After what we did to them, i think they are done for this year. Winning a GF must take a huge effort for everyone at the club and also a fair amount of luck, to get that right 2 years in a row is very very difficult. The hunger to strive for that extra inch has not been with the Bunnies for a few weeks now. A fit Inglis can tear any team apart but he does not have enough team mates to back him up. A pretty good backup season after a GF win, but no back to back for this team.

Dragons - over achieved to get where they are, 5th place will be pretty happy to come across these guys week 1. Not impossible for them but very improbable.

Manly - Won't be in the 8 and to be honest, don't deserve it after losing to Parra.

TLDR - Roosters to be in the GF vs. the winner of the Broncos/Cowboys game from week 1. Storm and Bulldogs to add some intrigue in the semi's.

 

[Porthoz]

In my opinion, it will be between chooks, cheats (Melbourne, not the drugs) and us. Dogs possibly a dark horse, because they are the least reliant on their halves, but I can't see the rest being able to go toe to toe with the above.

 

[vertigo]

FW1

Roosters vs Sharks
Broncos vs Cowboys
Bulldogs vs Dragons
Storm vs Souths

FW2

Cowboys vs Storm
Sharks vs Bulldogs

FW3

Roosters vs Cows/Storm
Broncos vs Sharks/Dogs

Beating the Cows in week one is an absolute blessing given the prelim it would set-up.

I day say no one outside of the top three has a chance, as has been the case since we brought the old finals system back.

 

[I bleed Maroon]

Just went on to the ladder predictor again. Its become a ritual at the end of every round.

I've got the top 3 plus the Bulldogs surviving all the way to the Prelims.

Roosters v Cowboys at ANZ/Allianz

Broncos v Bulldogs at Suncorp

What a brilliant turnout that would be for us. The Roosters and Cowboys destroy each other in Sydney while we make short work of the Dogs at home.

Also, we really cannot afford to lose in the first round, because if we do, we take on the Roosters if they win in the Prelim after having to play every game.

 

[Rhys van Beurden]

Playing the Poosters in the GF would make me reeeal nervous. I don't wanna lose to them bums. Not saying we would, but I don't like be given the opportunity to regardless.

 

[I bleed Maroon]

Playing the Poosters in the GF would make me reeeal nervous. I don't wanna lose to them bums. Not saying we would, but I don't like be given the opportunity to regardless.

They're far less threatening now than they would've been if Hargreaves was available. They now run the risk of suffering another injury in their starting front row and suddenly their big advantage is hamstrung

 

[lynx000]

Manly will not make it. Souths and Dragons are gone in my opinion.

Of the rest, it is the Roosters to lose, subject to them suffering anymore injuries.

Next rung is Cowboys and the Broncos, and I put us ahead of them on the basis that we have a healthy roster.

I would put the Dogs, Storm and Sharks on the next rung. Of those, the Storm look the most likely now because of the injury to Hodkinson.

 

[Dexter]

I agree the Roosters look slightly ahead of anyone else. My only hope is the refs start penalising their hold down tactics, that will bring them back to the field.
What they got away with against Manly was ridiculous but other coaches and captains are beginning to make some noise.

 

[Danoz Direct]

I am hoping that the Roosters fall into a flat spot, as they are due to because of their winning streak.

 

[Big Pete]

Some really good posts in here. IBM - that maybe one of the best posts I've seen you make. Keep 'em coming.

Roosters are easily the form team of the competition, but I think they're beatable under the right circumstances. I think they've had something of a dream run and they're not nearly as good as the media would have you believe. They're great at making ground, but I think with the right kicking game and defensive aptitude you could put them under pressure. I haven't forgotten about the two Cronulla games they lost and I think a lot of teams will study those tapes to get a good understanding.

I think it will be out of Brisbane or North Queensland. Whoever wins the game at Suncorp will go all the way. Right now, I think experience will give the Cowboys the slightest of advantages but if Broncos fans go in and make a ruckus they could get the boys home.

Must say, I wouldn't be heart-broken if Melbourne won on Thursday and the Sea Eagles beat Cronulla on Sunday. That way, Melbourne qualifies 4th, giving us an extremely strong first week of the finals.

 

[Alec]

Roosters will be in the Grand Final IMO. The other team will probably be between us and Cowboys. Cowboys beat us off the back of Morgan making Milford his bitch... so without Morgan there, it'll be interesting to see what they've got.

Roosters aren't quite as scary without JWH, who has been arguably the best foward in the comp this year. But their pack is still the best in the comp, and far above ours.

 

[Broncoman]

Broncos - This is the Broncos best chance to win a premiership in years. They've got players in form with pretty much no injuries bar McGuire. Bennett coaching, Milford and Hunt on fire etc and some very good leaders in the team. Very good chance to win the premiership yet i'm still preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.

Cowboys - I feel they rely on JT to much and without Morgan they don't really have any backup if Thurston has an off day or gets injured. If Thurston went down the Cowboys hopes are gone. He carries the team and makes some players look better than what they are. They've had a great year (possibly the best home and away season in the clubs history) but they are showing some weaknesses of late. Within a good shot though.

Roosters - Form team of the comp at the moment and still have quality players with alot of experience to make up for the injuries. Going without JWH is going to make life harder for them than the 2013 year (he was the forward leader and played a massive part in the win). Pearce is back in week 2 of the finals and Jennings is back this week which makes it a little easier. They have a great shot at winning another title this year and if i was them i would make the most of it. Losing Maloney and RTS is going to hurt.

Souths - Seemed to have lost a little bit of the aura from last year. Had a rough year with injuries and have been inconsistent in recent weeks. Missing Luke is going to hit them hard but they won the GF last year without him so I'm still looking over my shoulder. Not expecting them to make the GF but I wouldn't be surprised if they made the 3rd week of the finals. Outside chance

Sharks - They've done terrifically well this year and good on them for doing so but they just lack the strength to go all the way. If they were playing a top 4 team on Saturday they would've been put to the sword. They might win in the first week but they will probably be knocked out the week after.

Storm - I still can't write of the Storm any team with Cronk and Smith calling the shots must never ever be underestimated. Munster has filled in superbly but they are still missing Slater which has really killed them. Suffered early exits at home in the last 2 years so I feel the odds are against them to pull a bunny out of the hat.

Bulldogs - Just like the Storm I can't write the Bulldogs of and I'm always watching out for them. They have a knack of performing very well and succeeding above everyone's predictions (last year, 1998 and 1995 prime examples of this). Losing Hodkinson is going to hurt them (they are more controlled and poised when he is there imo). Really not expecting them to go that far but I'm still watching out for them.

Dragons - They would just be making up the numbers and it would be a miracle if they even made it past the first week.

 

[Renegade]

Broncos Roosters final imo, the cows are starting to stutter after an unbelievable run, I don't think they will be able to go up the extra gear needed (i thought they were cooked after their early season form though, so based on my history they'll probably make and win the gf).

If it was a Broncos Roosters final, I'd have every confidence of beating them. Wayno knows how to prep the boys for the big one.

 

[Harry Sack]

I'd put money on Morgan being back week one of the finals personally.

 

[I bleed Maroon]

Now that we've seen Melbourne play, I'm honestly not all that convinced by them. They may surprise the Dragons at AAMI Park but recent games at that ground between the two sides have been typically tight affairs with the winner only really decided in the last 10 minutes. You also have to wonder how much gas Melbourne have left in the tank after the many short turnarounds and the gruelling games they've been playing as a result.

If the Sharks lose and the Storm steal fourth, I reckon the Roosters will smash them in week 1. That means if we beat the Cows, they go to Townsville to smash it out with them. Every scenario is so good for us that we absolutely must beat the Cows. Our opponents will pretty much crumble like tenpins at the Prelim because they'll be stuffed.