PRE-GAME Round 11 - Broncos vs Storm

[vertigo]

Playing it safe here. I have $800 on Melbourne - Melbourne half time full time double at $1.25. I can’t see how I can lose that bet

Good luck bud. I don't announce my bets out of superstition but I have two on for this game.

 

[Huge]

Playing it safe here. I have $800 on Melbourne - Melbourne half time full time double at $1.25. I can’t see how I can lose that bet

I was thinking about this bet. I can see that you've created value by increasing your risk and nearly every follower of the game would say there's no chance the Broncos could have a halftime lead BUT if they were going to lead at any stage, that would be in the first half.

I cannot see them winning under any circumstances especially after Bellamy gets them at halftime. You'd be hoping that Melbourne get off to a flyer and that seems most likely but it's still a gamble for 320 bucks. Why didn't you just ask me for it?!!

 

[The Strapper]

I was thinking about this bet. I can see that you've created value by increasing your risk and nearly every follower of the game would say there's no chance the Broncos could have a halftime lead BUT if they were going to lead at any stage, that would be in the first half.

I cannot see them winning under any circumstances especially after Bellamy gets them at halftime. You'd be hoping that Melbourne get off to a flyer and that seems most likely but it's still a gamble for 320 bucks. Why didn't you just ask me for it?!![emoji383]

Huge maths was never my strong point but doesn’t $800 at 1.25 mean you win $200 not $320?

 

[Marsh]

CM have written an article about how the Broncos lost the next Civoniceva, being Tino. Not surprising but ironic that the pieces of shit chose to target us rather than Storm who've let him go to the Titans. The media will have a field day after tomorrow night. Sadly it's warranted with how we are performing.

 

[Dexter]

Playing it safe here. I have $800 on Melbourne - Melbourne half time full time double at $1.25. I can’t see how I can lose that bet

It's pretty safe I reckon. I don't like HT FT doubles because it gives you 2 chances to lose, plus other variables like wind rain etc could come into play in the first half.

Minus 11.5 is $1.38 that's safe too

 

[Dexter]

CM have written an article about how the Broncos lost the next Civoniceva, being Tino. Not surprising but ironic that the pieces of shit chose to target us rather than Storm who've let him go to the Titans. The media will have a field day after tomorrow night. Sadly it's warranted with how we are performing.

OR maybe they could run a story on how much talent we identify and bring through only to be picked off by 1 of the other 15 clubs forcing us to make choices before the talent fully develops.

 

[Matheos]

It's pretty safe I reckon. I don't like HT FT doubles because it gives you 2 chances to lose, plus other variables like wind rain etc could come into play in the first half.

Minus 11.5 is $1.38 that's safe too

Whether or not the bet appears 'safe' or a 'sure thing' there is absolutely no value this week taking any outright bets on Melbourne. The bookmakers have inflated the line given the public perception of the two teams and they are making the regular everyday punter pay a premium to bet on them. Yes, do Melbourne win this game. Absolutely. Do they cover the -19.5 start more than a 50% clip in a one game sample? Definitely not. This flows to other exotic markets, where for example, the HT/FT option for Storm/Storm should really be paying $1.40 in a true and even market. Your bet will likely win, however when you are trying to turn a profit long-term and betting the same stake each time, you would need to win this bet 5/6 times (at $1.25) to break even. My advice would be to take your wife or kids out somewhere nice and let's not get too stressed and worked up over the performance. I'm giving my heart a bye round! Ahah.

 

[Sproj]

OR maybe they could run a story on how much talent we identify and bring through only to be picked off by 1 of the other 15 clubs forcing us to make choices before the talent fully develops.

Nah, no clicks in that.

 

[Dexter]

Whether or not the bet appears 'safe' or a 'sure thing' there is absolutely no value this week taking any outright bets on Melbourne. The bookmakers have inflated the line given the public perception of the two teams and they are making the regular everyday punter pay a premium to bet on them. Yes, do Melbourne win this game. Absolutely. Do they cover the -19.5 start more than a 50% clip in a one game sample? Definitely not. This flows to other exotic markets, where for example, the HT/FT option for Storm/Storm should really be paying $1.40 in a true and even market. Your bet will likely win, however when you are trying to turn a profit long-term and betting the same stake each time, you would need to win this bet 5/6 times (at $1.25) to break even. My advice would be to take your wife or kids out somewhere nice and let's not get too stressed and worked up over the performance. I'm giving my heart a bye round! Ahah.

Huh.

 

[Huge]

Absolutely, in my defence I claim it was too early.I couldn't sleep and was fucked in the head! I think I thought it was paying 1.40. Dead wrong ha.

Huge maths was never my strong point but doesn’t $800 at 1.25 mean you win $200 not $320?

 

[McHunt]

Looks like it's going to be cold and wet in Brisbane tomorrow night. That's advantage us, right?

 

[Super Freak]

Looks like it's going to be cold and wet in Brisbane tomorrow night. That's advantage us, right?

That actually disadvantages us even more. If that’s even possible at this point.

We showed in 2016 how to beat Melbourne. Unfortunately, that style of play isn’t suited for a wet field.

It will make it easier for Melbourne to wrestle us out of the contest.

 

[Sproj]

That actually disadvantages us even more. If that’s even possible at this point.

We showed in 2016 how to beat Melbourne. Unfortunately, that style of play isn’t suited for a wet field.

More accurately, this team isn’t suited to be on the same field as Melbourne.

 

[Mitchell_Broncos]

Dont know how to feel about tommorow i just hope its not a massive score going into the 50s pls.

 

[McHunt]

Dont know how to feel about tommorow i just hope its not a massive score going into the 50s pls.

We'll go easy on them, just for you.

 

[Foordy]

CM have written an article about how the Broncos lost the next Civoniceva, being Tino. Not surprising but ironic that the pieces of shit chose to target us rather than Storm who've let him go to the Titans. The media will have a field day after tomorrow night. Sadly it's warranted with how we are performing.

I was going to say something similar.

Not to worry though ... we still have the next Webcke, the next Inglis, the next Langer and the next JT2 ... we're golden

 

[Mitchell_Broncos]

We'll go easy on them, just for you.

That would be nice =).

 

[rnabokov]

Dont know how to feel about tommorow i just hope its not a massive score going into the 50s pls.

I think it will. I reckon it's a foregone conclusion based on what we have seen, and not seen, so far. Foregone conclusions are boring. Worse is the inevitable disappointment and anger which I feel when we lose badly although losing to a side as good as the Storm tempers that a bit. What I am looking forward to, the only thing I guess which for me is a realistic expectation, is that our rocks might turn into diamonds, and, what consequences MUST materialise from the final result.

But then, we all live in hope, and we all want to be surprised. In some ways that's good. In others, it just leads to more of the same of what we have been feeling for the last 7 weeks.

So ... Broncos by 10