Round 21 Discussion

[Son Edo]

McManus will struggle getting back in the side.

 

[OXY-351]

Half the reason they signed Wes.

So Kevin could give him a lift to training?

 

[Anonymous person]

I'm throwing this out there - Canterbury, Newcastle, or Souths will win the premiership this year.

 

[ningnangnong]

I'm throwing this out there - Canterbury, Newcastle, or Souths will win the premiership this year.

You feeling alright today, AP? :tongue_smilie:

I still reckon Melbourne are a huge chance. I know they're in some terrible form right now, and their forward pack isn't all that great... but they're just one of those teams that you can never, ever write off IMO. I can see them being very strong come finals time.

 

[Coxy]

There's been too many occasions where a team down on form around this point in the competition has turned things around and won the premiership. Broncos 2006 for one.

Conversely, too many occasions where a team flying high at this point of the competition has started to taper off come finals time and get bundled out. Dragons...well just about any year except 2010.

I still have a sneaky suspicion the Bulldogs are peaking too early and will fall away. The question is how much will they fall away, and for how long. It could just be a dip for a week or two and then come back to their peak enough to win the title.

Similar applies to Souths, although I'm not convinced they've peaked yet. Yesterday was without doubt their best 80 minute performance all year, but can they back that up? And can John Sutton do that kind of performance consecutively? Let's face it, he's hot and cold.

Newcastle? Well I'm not sure they have the forwards to beat the big teams in the big games, but their form is impressive and if they continue to gain confidence they're certainly a dark horse.

I reckon give it a month and we might well have 3 other teams we're talking up...and Manly and Melbourne will likely be 2 of them.

 

[Anonymous person]

i dislike wayne bennett, no doubt about that, but the knights are playing good footy at the moment, and for basically the first time ever a Bennett coached team has started hitting form at the right time of the season. like ive said for the last 5 years or so, the first half of the season you barely even need to win a game, you just need to experiment with the team and get combinations/plays etc going. then come the back end of the season you should start firing on all cylinders and youll get the very few wins required to get into the finals (since you rarely even need to win even 50% of the matches) and youre in with a chance.

newcastles have won, what, 5 games in a row and have gone from like equal second last to being in the top 8 most likely next week. with their run home, honestly im expecting them to make or at least push for the top 4 at the expense of manly/brisbane/north queensland.

even at this stage, as much as i hate to do it, i have to give credit to bennett for the HUGE turnaround from the first half of the season. now thats not to say hes done a great job with the knights - they shouldnt have been cellar dwellers for half a season with the roster at his disposal. but hes got them back up there and finals bound, and its come off the back of some of the most laughable performances from any team in the last half a decade, they looked like a joke out there.

if i was a betting man id be getting on those 3 for the premiership.

 

[Son Edo]

Dont forget the Titans, 3 in a row at the right place and the right time.

 

[Big Pete]

Really unsure if AP is being serious or not.

Their run home is...

vs. Bulldogs (1st)
vs. Sharks (7th)
vs. Sea Eagles (6th)
vs. Cowboys @ Dairy Farmers (4th)
vs. Rabbitohs (2nd)

That's a bloody tough run home. If they make the 8 they really deserve to be there.

I still don't think they'd do much if they make the finals. If they do, I can see it being like the '99 Broncos. The achievement was turning the season around and discovering that belief.

 

[Anonymous person]

Really unsure if AP is being serious or not.

Their run home is...

vs. Bulldogs (1st)
vs. Sharks (7th)
vs. Sea Eagles (6th)
vs. Cowboys @ Dairy Farmers (4th)
vs. Rabbitohs (2nd)

That's a bloody tough run home. If they make the 8 they really deserve to be there.

I still don't think they'd do much if they make the finals. If they do, I can see it being like the '99 Broncos. The achievement was turning the season around and discovering that belief.

theyll win at least 3 of those IMO - sharks, sea eagles, cowboys = finish on 28 points minimum IMO.

titans are in 8th, equal points, and have souths, melbourne, parramatta, penrith, manly. id give them 2 wins out of those 5, possibly 3. = finish on 26 points likely, 28 maximum.

wests are equal points and have parramatta, st george, canterbury, sydney city, melbourne. they have the easiest run, but theyre playing absolutely terribly. realistically id give them 1, maybe 2 wins = finish on 24 points, 26 maximum.

st george are equal points and have sydney city, wests, canterbury, new zealand, parramatta = should be minimum of 3 wins, maximum of 4, finish on 28-30.

warriors are 2 points below and have cronulla, north queensland, penrith, st george, canberra. that should be an easy run home, with say 4 wins out of 5, but the way theyve lost huge leads 2 weeks in a row means theyre anything but assured = finish on 26-28 points.

so by my count, itll finish on something like:

Knights - 28
Titans - 28
Tigers - 26
Dragons - 28
Warriors - 28

the sharks also could drop out though - i cant see them winning another game - new zealand, newcastle, souths, melbourne, north queensland = finish on 25 points.

so that would mean 2 of the other 5 listed above go through. could all come down to for-and-against, of which the warriors have the best at this stage, followed by the knights. so 7th and 8th goes to warriors and knights by my calculations.

thats also assuming that the teams on 26 will win 2+ matches out of their 5, which in brisbanes case (6 matches counting tonight) isnt assured. if we can beat parramatta tonight it should realistically all but assure us a finals spot, but another win would put it out of doubt.

 

[Big Pete]

On paper, I'd rate the Knights run home tougher than the others. Unlike say the Titans, they don't have any 'gimme' matches in between to buffer them and give them momentum heading into the next week. The only game that comes close is the Sharks game and that could very well change if the Sharks revive their season against the Warriors with the return of Gallen, Carney & Graham.

A lot will hinge against the Dogs IMO. Win that, and they should be there. Wouldn't be surprised if they pull it off either, I reckon all it will take is for the ball to bounce the other way for the Dogs to capitulate.

Agree that it's a race for 7th and 8th. Wouldn't be the first time the Sharks have capitulated after Origin. Just had a look back at their 06 season where they went from 3rd to 13th on the back of 10 straight losses. Will give them until next week to prove me wrong. Gallen, Carney & Graham were big omissions last week, if they can settle they should be able to pull a couple of victories.

I mean, Jeremy Smith nearly carried them to victory last week. Now that guy is a great player, I don't think he gets his due. For mine, his name belongs in the top echelon of backrows in the game.

Was a big part of that Dragons 2010 side IMO.