It's my view that Siebold can finish anywhere in the 1st 12 teams this year and keep his job. If however, he fails to make the 8 this year and just scrapes it next year he is gone. If he only makes the 8 this and next year, he's gone. If they make the 4 next year, he'll see out his contract. If he wins it, any year, he'll write his own.
If he goes through, the board will have to go with him, so they are invested in him making every step a winner (or to be seen to at least) until he delivers (there's nothing wrong with that, we all are, to a point).
IF though they don't make the 8 this year, there will be others going for sure. At that point, there will be too much at stake to go with the status quo.