2023 State of Origin Discussion

Wolfie said:
Walsh isnt Origin ready. Its too unforgiving of the type of errors he has in his game. On the wing he could possibly get away with things but not at fullback. He needs at least another 12 months of NRL footy to iron out the small things in his game he needs to work on. Even then, its going to be hard for him to displace Ponga. Apart from one game he hasnt played poorly this season for Newcastle. Long term the only thing i could see hampering him is the fitness at 6 is different to the fitness you need at 1.
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Absolutely get him in camp and around the likes of Slater and Ponga but a lot of players would have to fall for me to pick him tbh.
 
Fitzy said:
Not anymore now that they can be activated mid game. Anyway you’d think if Val, Munster and potentially Hammer were in the side you wouldn’t be making the 18th man a fullback.
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If you were going to bet on a player being ruled out with a HIA mid-origin surely your money would be on Ponga. His history with concussions will guarantee Walsh as 18th man imo.
 
18th man should be a forward, if Hammer is already in the team every position will likely be covered outside of the bench forwards.
 
Fitzy said:
Not anymore now that they can be activated mid game. Anyway you’d think if Val, Munster and potentially Hammer were in the side you wouldn’t be making the 18th man a fullback.
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I think Brimson would've been a good 18th man, but unfortunately he's injured.

Can cover fullback and five eight... has origin experience (and performed well)... can play in the outside backs in a pinch.

I think Qld would also consider him as that back on the bench they like to play in the middle... if Harry or Bhunt weren't available.

Realistically though it should be Dearden... Cows might be struggling, but he's been up there as one of their best. He can cover the halves or come in as a hooker if needed.. can also fill that role as a back through the middle ala Cronk, DCE, Khunt, etc. He was also the 18th man for games 1 & 2 last year and performed well when picked in game 3
 
BooKhaki said:
Hang on, you actually made an opinion on a player without watching them play this year?
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Can’t remember which game it was but saw a glimpse of him conceding a couple of tries which reminded me of him struggling at origin last year. So I just jumped to a conclusion.
 
Mustafur said:
If QLD lose game 1 off a Ponga shocker it would be a big wake-up call on our conservative team selections, but as of current the model of picking past proven performers has worked so I can understand the hesitation of deviating from it, especially on the back of a winning series last year.

While I think Walsh is just a better Fullback than Ponga, he still hasn't played at Origin level so there is always going to be a high Barrier for entry.

It was always going to be more dependent on how Ponga is playing than anything Reece could do.
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I think Reece still gets a bit wobbly under extreme pressure...... I/we saw some of that against the Storm.

He has so many plays at his disposal, but he is still finding out which one to play when. The others (Alfie, Locky.....Ponga) had/have it early/natural.

Its really Ponga's to lose. If he can get through and leave the worry of getting knocked unconscious out of it.....and focus on the footy
... he'll dominate the series.
 
Mustafur said:
I think Surely Flegs is in the 17 now.
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Not good for us, but I think he would be getting very close now... there's a lot of middles so will come down to what Billy wants

8. TBC
9. Bhunt
10. Tino
11. Capewell
12. Kaufusi
13. Patty

14. Harry
15. TBC
16. TBC
17. Fifita

For the TBC's it will represent a combination of Collins, Arrow, Flegler, Welch, Cotter, MoFotu, Gilbert... and maybe some more that I've missed.

Collins, Arrow, Cotter and Gilbert all played in last year's series... Flegler was 18th man in game 3... Mo played a couple years back (can't remember which year though). Welch would likely have played last year except for injury.

As far has form goes I'd say Arrow, Gilbert and Flegler are in the best form... Welch and Collins haven't been bad, just that storm and rorters are off the boil. Cotter has shown patches of his form last year, but looks like he's playing less minutes.

I'd say Arrow and Gilbert should definitely be there... I also suspect that Welch gets a call up, primarily because of needing the experience, but Arrow and Welch don't exactly represent much punch or impact off the bench.

With Papi gone there's a big void in the origin games played... and I'd think Arrow and Welch probably represent the next most experienced?
- Just checked and Welch is only at 6, but I think that's mainly been due to injuries, as he's been getting picked since 2019.

Tino and Patty will be the focal point of our middle forwards and both have under 10 games each.

Collins has been around for a couple series now and has been solid, so I'd suggest he could also be favoured.

Really hard to know which way Billy will go
 
Mustafur said:
I think Surely Flegs is in the 17 now.
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I don't think Josh was going to be selected anyway. I can guarantee he would not have retired a few days before camp if he was part of Billy's intentions. I reckon he got the phone call to say mate you're out of the running and Josh just said "thanks Bill that will be it for me". He bowes out having played the most recent origin which is fitting for his contributions to QLD. When he fell out he wasn't getting back in unless we were getting touched up. Anyway, whilst Flegler is a perfect origin player I don't think he deserves it over the other contenders who have dominated this year. Remember we have Tino, Welch, Carrigan, Cotter, Gilbert, Arrow, Collins Horsburgh, Mo and Flegler all vying for the same 5 spots (assuming a second rower is on the bench). I struggle to see any of Tino, Welch, Carrigan, Collins or Cotter missing out and really for mine I'd be picking Arrow, Horsburgh and Gilbert before Flegler so I don't think he gets in. He hasn't demanded selection enough to warrant being in that team before these other players.
 
I imagine he was given the heads up by Billy to retire or be dropped. He probably has about 10 blokes ahead of him in the middle rotation for QLD.
 
BroncsFan said:
Not good for us, but I think he would be getting very close now... there's a lot of middles so will come down to what Billy wants

8. TBC
9. Bhunt
10. Tino
11. Capewell
12. Kaufusi
13. Patty

14. Harry
15. TBC
16. TBC
17. Fifita

For the TBC's it will represent a combination of Collins, Arrow, Flegler, Welch, Cotter, MoFotu, Gilbert... and maybe some more that I've missed.

Collins, Arrow, Cotter and Gilbert all played in last year's series... Flegler was 18th man in game 3... Mo played a couple years back (can't remember which year though). Welch would likely have played last year except for injury.

As far has form goes I'd say Arrow, Gilbert and Flegler are in the best form... Welch and Collins haven't been bad, just that storm and rorters are off the boil. Cotter has shown patches of his form last year, but looks like he's playing less minutes.

I'd say Arrow and Gilbert should definitely be there... I also suspect that Welch gets a call up, primarily because of needing the experience, but Arrow and Welch don't exactly represent much punch or impact off the bench.

With Papi gone there's a big void in the origin games played... and I'd think Arrow and Welch probably represent the next most experienced?
- Just checked and Welch is only at 6, but I think that's mainly been due to injuries, as he's been getting picked since 2019.

Tino and Patty will be the focal point of our middle forwards and both have under 10 games each.

Collins has been around for a couple series now and has been solid, so I'd suggest he could also be favoured.

Really hard to know which way Billy will go
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I think Billy will lean on the experience of Welch, now that Papalii is retired.

This is my prediction for the Game 1 forward pack -

8. Welch
9. Grant
10. Fa'asuemaleaui
11. Capewell
12. Kaufusi
13. Carrigan

14. Hunt
15. Fifita
16. Collins
17. Arrow/Cotter
 
Unbreakable said:
I think Billy will lean on the experience of Welch, now that Papalii is retired.

This is my prediction for the Game 1 forward pack -

8. Welch
9. Grant
10. Fa'asuemaleaui
11. Capewell
12. Kaufusi
13. Carrigan

14. Hunt
15. Fifita
16. Collins
17. Arrow/Cotter
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Other than the flip of Grant and Hunt thats what I would be going with. Nice balance of form, experience, leadership, reliability, impact and versatility. Only thing is whilst I think Arrow has been amazing and I want him in the team, it seems like Billy has the biggest man crush on Reuben and I think he might snag it over Arrow.
 
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