OPINION Broncos are winning the 2023 NRL Premiership

[theshed]

But hopefully with a different ending

And different following 7 years

 

[Super Freak]

I've got the video of Phil Gould saying we won't beat Panthers saved just in case.

If we do end up beating them to win the premiership, I've got a special video planned for Gould that I'll be sending to him.

 

[john1420]

I also think 15 clubs are just making up numbers this year. There is a very clear top two.

Hey @Sproj :)

I'm really curious to hear your thoughts on how you came to this. Yes Penrith and the mighty Broncos are flying, but you don't give a team like the Warriors a chance? They are playing pretty good too. And the cows are probably pretty close to the form team of the last few weeks. Perhaps you think they will burn out?
Anyway love to hear your thinking :)

 

[Sproj]

Hey @Sproj :)

I'm really curious to hear your thoughts on how you came to this. Yes Penrith and the mighty Broncos are flying, but you don't give a team like the Warriors a chance? They are playing pretty good too. And the cows are probably pretty close to the form team of the last few weeks. Perhaps you think they will burn out?
Anyway love to hear your thinking :)

Yep I could and probably will be very wrong. I just think the Cows have peaked too early and not sure the Warriors can go up another year despite how well they’ve been going which they will need to be able to do.

The Smokey is Melbourne because despite them being limited, they have a great coach, spine and always have the ref on their side.

 

[BroncosFever]

I've got the video of Phil Gould saying we won't beat Panthers saved just in case.

If we do end up beating them to win the premiership, I've got a special video planned for Gould that I'll be sending to him.

He's not the only one to write us off early, is he?

 

[McHunt]

SPOILER ALERT

Broncos Premierships: 1992, 1993, 1997 (SL), 1998, 2000, 2006, 2023

 

[Super Freak]

He's not the only one to write us off early, is he?

Stop being a sook and get over it, dude.

I've been seeing a few of your posts when negative things are said about the side. Perhaps the Broncos groups on Facebook would be better suited for you, that way you'll never have to read a negative thing again.

 

[BroncsFan]

Yep I could and probably will be very wrong. I just think the Cows have peaked too early and not sure the Warriors can go up another year despite how well they’ve been going which they will need to be able to do.

The Smokey is Melbourne because despite them being limited, they have a great coach, spine and always have the ref on their side.

Key could be how Paps comes back from injury.

Surely he can't be anywhere near getting back to 100% after his injury.... but will it be JYY style where he comes back for a cameo and it's realised he can't do it anymore... or will he be able to come back at something like 70-80% and change his game to make him serviceable.

Storm are very reliant on their spine at the moment... early on last night Parra were smashing them in yardage sets, but storm changed it up and started spreading it on yardage to find some space and then Harry started running it, Munster started popping up in the middle causing issues, and then Hughes started finding space on his edge.

So I'd say their middle can be dominated, but the edges need to be ready to come up and in if they want to start spreading it early.

At that point Melbourne realise they're on the back foot and start grubbing it up to grind the game to a halt, and create a stop start affair.

 

[BroncosFever]

Stop being a sook and get over it, dude.

I've been seeing a few of your posts when negative things are said about the side. Perhaps the Broncos groups on Facebook would be better suited for you, that way you'll never have to read a negative thing again.

Zero chance I am letting you live it down, you wrote us off after the Canberra loss, you did that. You don't get to sit there and make fun of others for doing the same.

 

[Santa]

SPOILER ALERT

Broncos Premierships: 1992, 1993, 1997 (SL), 1998, 2000, 2006, 2023

I'm trying so hard not to create a new thread: "Broncos are going back to back in 2024"...

 

[LittleDavey]

I'm trying so hard not to create a new thread: "Broncos are going back to back in 2024"...

Save it for 20mins left in the 2023 GF when we're up by 30...

 

[Foordy]

Ok, so with the Raiders losing today, our top 4 chances just got more secure. if my maths is correct (and admittedly it sucks), a likely Cowboys win over the Titans tomorrow will mean that 1 win should secure us a top 4 place (maybe 2 if it comes down to differential)

Showing my work:

in this instance, i'll assume worst case scenario and consider that the rest of current top 4 win their remaining games,

in each instance below, I'll also work out what it will take for each team to over take us, but then assume that the other teams currently outside the top 4 don't win enough games to overtake the team in the scenario i'm working on.

Broncos | 15 wins | 4 games remaining | currently a +153 differential
Assuming the we only win one more game that would take us to 16 wins for the season

Raiders | 11 wins | 5 games remaining | currently a -78 differential
If we win 0 more games - need to win all remaining games
If we win 1 more game - need to win every game for the rest of the season and overcome a 231 point worse differential.
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

Sharks | 10 wins | 6 games remaining | currently a +98 differential
If we win 0 more games - need 5 wins minimum and a over come a 55 point worse differential. 6 wins gets them top 4
If we win 1 more game - need to win every remaining game.
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

Rabbitohs | 11 wins | 4 games remaining | currently a +90 differential
If we win 0 more games - need to win every remaining game and over come a 63 point worse differential
If we win 1 more game - no chance of top 4

Cowboys | 11 wins | 5 games remaining | currently a +57 differential
If we win 0 more games - need 4 wins and to over come a 96 point worse differential; 5 wins gets them top 4
If we win 1 more game - need to win every game for the rest of the season and overcome a 96 point worse differential
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

TLDR: 1 more win should secure us top 4 ... 2 more wins guarantees it

 

[Sproj]

Ok, so with the Raiders losing today, our top 4 chances just got more secure. if my maths is correct (and admittedly it sucks), a likely Cowboys win over the Titans tomorrow will mean that 1 win should secure us a top 4 place (maybe 2 if it comes down to differential)

Showing my work:

in this instance, i'll assume worst case scenario and consider that the rest of current top 4 win their remaining games,

in each instance below, I'll also work out what it will take for each team to over take us, but then assume that the other teams currently outside the top 4 don't win enough games to overtake the team in the scenario i'm working on.

Broncos | 15 wins | 4 games remaining | currently a +153 differential
Assuming the we only win one more game that would take us to 16 wins for the season

Raiders | 11 wins | 5 games remaining | currently a -78 differential
If we win 0 more games - need to win all remaining games
If we win 1 more game - need to win every game for the rest of the season and overcome a 231 point worse differential.
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

Sharks | 10 wins | 6 games remaining | currently a +98 differential
If we win 0 more games - need 5 wins minimum and a over come a 55 point worse differential. 6 wins gets them top 4
If we win 1 more game - need to win every remaining game.
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

Rabbitohs | 11 wins | 4 games remaining | currently a +90 differential
If we win 0 more games - need to win every remaining game and over come a 63 point worse differential
If we win 1 more game - no chance of top 4

Cowboys | 11 wins | 5 games remaining | currently a +57 differential
If we win 0 more games - need 4 wins and to over come a 96 point worse differential; 5 wins gets them top 4
If we win 1 more game - need to win every game for the rest of the season and overcome a 96 point worse differential
if we win 2 more games - no chance of top 4

TLDR: 1 more win should secure us top 4 ... 2 more wins guarantees it

My secret table says 1 more win should lock it in for top 4 BUT actually, we are already a good chance to be in the top 4 as things stand.

 

[BroncsFan]

My secret table says 1 more win should lock it in for top 4 BUT actually, we are already a good chance to be in the top 4 as things stand.

We're a very good chance now because we beat Souths last week... now raiders losing damages another top 4 contender... if we can beat either cows or storm it's pretty well locked in I think.

 

[Sproj]

We're a very good chance now because we beat Souths last week... now raiders losing damages another top 4 contender... if we can beat either cows or storm it's pretty well locked in I think.

The reality is, we are three wins inside the top 4 with a bye in hand and only five rounds to go and a healthy F/A advantage. Plus, the Storm and Cows still have to play the Panthers.

So my secret table says that one more win definitely locks it up but even without one, there is a less than 10% chance of missing top 4 as things stand right now, even if Cows win tomorrow.

We're 4 wins clear of 6 with a bye in hand. Basically, right now, the lowest we can finish is 5th.

 

[McHunt]

Our points diff is coming along at a decent clip (we're at second place now) but we have a bye to come (no diff) and all tough games. Meanwhile the Panthers have the Storm, Manly, Titans, Eels and Cowboys. I think realistically our only chance of winning the Minor Premiership will hinge on Penrith dropping a match. The best chance of that happening would be against the Storm next week or the Cowboys in the final round.

If I identified as a betting man, I'd be placing my wager on us finishing 2nd, and that would still be contingent on us beating the Storm for the first time in 100 years. That bet would pay well.

And if the Storm can beat the Panthers and we can beat the Storm, the rest of the script writes itself.

 

[Santa]

Our points diff is coming along at a decent clip (we're at second place now) but we have a bye to come (no diff) and all tough games. Meanwhile the Panthers have the Storm, Manly, Titans, Eels and Cowboys. I think realistically our only chance of winning the Minor Premiership will hinge on Penrith dropping a match. The best chance of that happening would be against the Storm next week or the Cowboys in the final round.

If I identified as a betting man, I'd be placing my wager on us finishing 2nd, and that would still be contingent on us beating the Storm for the first time in 100 years. That bet would pay well.

And if the Storm can beat the Panthers and we can beat the Storm, the rest of the script writes itself.

I think we are in a great position to finish top 2. My only worry is about who we will be playing in the first week of the finals. I think it will likely be against the Storm, Warriors or Cowboys. I would personally prefer the Warriors.

 

[LittleDavey]

I think we are in a great position to finish top 2. My only worry is about who we will be playing in the first week of the finals. I think it will likely be against the Storm, Warriors or Cowboys. I would personally prefer the Warriors.

I think it'll be us & the Warriors in 2nd and 3rd, not sure which way around but either way we play each other. I have 4th/5th as Cows/Storm, again not sure which way around. And realistically it doesn't matter who is further back then that because they're cannon fodder. It's a 5 way race at absolute best IMO.