I think there is every chance Qld could lose game 1 of this series. Here's a list of reasons why.
No Steve Price or (probably) Cam Smith - yeah the rest of them are champs but it all starts with ball distribution from the 9 and we're missing half of the prop combo on which we've built the last 4 series wins. Not saying Ballin and Scott can't step up and I hope they do, but you just don't know - with Smithy and Pricey we knew what we were gonna get. Nothing beats proven big match experience.
It's in Sydney, which is not a problem "enemy territory"-wise as much as it is due to the conditions. It's always a slippery, dewy field and this time there'll probably be some rain around as well. These conditions nullify the brilliance and speed of the Qld backs and bring the teams closer together. Though in our favour, Mal has brought a game plan to suit these conditions in recent years and it has worked.
Related to that - the teams aren't that far apart to start with. Yes ours is superior, but not as much as some people think. Hayne can run riot if given the chance and Idris could prove hard to handle for instance.
Bellyache has nothing to coach for this season except Origin, so it's a fair bet he'll put even more into it than he normally does, not just technically but regarding passion.
The pride and desperation of the NSW players having lost 4 series in a row, and not wanting to lose 5. From their point of view, they could argue they have more to play for than Qld who have won 4 and are due for a let-down some time. Of course that shouldn't be the case as Qlders should always have the same desire to win no matter what, but it's hard mentally to be equally desperate all the time. I've read a few things in the papers out of the NSW camp this year that suggests they'll be seriously up for it. This will be the biggest factor - attitude. Having said that, certain events last year should ensure the attitude is there from the Qld players. But if not, they could quickly get the jump on us and game 1 is gone just like that.
Having said all that, Qld should still win the series, even if game 1 goes down the crapper. There will be the wake up call factor and attitude fix for game 2, plus the awesome Qld crowd and conditions to suit the ideal game plan for the team we've got. Then if it's 1-1 going into the last one, there'll be the motivation to send certain likely-retiring players out winners - and the fact that in the end, we're just better than them!
But nothing's certain. Throw in a couple of injuries, some lucky breaks like tries off deflections like last year (and some inept video ref decisions that also benefitted the Blues) and it could all go pear-shaped. So just like in previous years the team has got to bring the QUEENSLANDER! to the game. That will get us through.