Let the off season review begin

Trill Harrigan said:
hating on arthars is diabolical
he is one of the few good guys we got!
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He puts in the effort, but we've been crying out for wingers that can get our sets off to a good start and can make an impact with their runs coming out of our end.

If we want that, Arthars has to go. People have gotta be sacrificed to improve the squad. He's one of them.
 
Unbreakable said:
I haven't posted properly on BHQ in a few years, but I still watch every single game of NRL every weekend. I'll share my thoughts on a couple of glaring issues with this team.

Problem 1)

Our middle forward rotation is too big and too immobile. Take a look around the NRL at the moment, the middle forwards who've had breakout performances over the last 24 months are as follows: Max Plath, Connor Watson, Josh Curran, J'maine Hopgood, Reuben Cotter, etc.

They're all undersized. The biggest players on this list are Curran & Hopgood who both play at a little over 100kg. Our forward pack has no variability. Jensen, Haas, Carrigan, Willison, Te Kura, Baker, Taupau, Hunt.

The only middle forward on our entire roster who fits the mould of the way the modern NRL is going is Kobe Hetherington, who is underutilised, undervalued, and seemingly being told to find a new club. In my opinion, we should've been starting Haas & Carrigan at prop, with Hetherington playing big minutes at lock. Hetherington is our best defensive middle, and it's not particularly close. He moves well laterally and has the motor to make repeat efforts. He almost won us the Grand Final last year with his defensive clean-up work.

We're going to lose the middle most weeks next year (outside of the anomaly weeks where we get a roll-on early due to mistakes from the opposition or yardage penalties), unless we make drastic roster changes. I like Corey Horsburgh, but he's more of the same, not great laterally in the middle. We need to recruit several smaller bodies in the middle, and when recruiting them, we need to focus on motor, defensive technique and character. Hard workers. We have enough strike everywhere else that we don't need game breaking forwards to partner with Haas & Carrigan. We need to surround them with big minute, hard working, great defenders.

Problem 2)

We have no yardage from our outside backs. This goes hand in hand with Problem 1. The reason we've felt the need to recruit so many big middle forwards is because our outside backs are low work rate, lazy players. Our roster is constructed completely opposite to the way that the modern NRL is trending. Look at what the Bulldogs have done this year, they figured out the way to go about 24 months ago and have been building the roster around it. Their entire forward pack is undersized, almost exclusively hard working, high character players. They've got the yardage problem completely solved by having Kiraz, Tracey, Xerri, Skelton at the back, all of whom run for 150m+ every week, most of which is in post-contact metres. They've even had Addo-Carr put on about 5kg of muscle in recent years to help with his work out of his own end.

Now compare and contrast that to our current back 5 -

Walsh, Arthars, Staggs, Cobbo, Mariner.

There isn't a single player on that list I would say has an above average work ethic, or ability to make post-contact metres out of trouble. Arthars, Staggs & Mariner are barely hitting 100 metres per game, a lot of which are stat padded by free running metres when Walsh puts them in gaps. Cobbo is marginally better, but he has close to the most inconsistent work rate in the NRL. Some games he's running 18 times for 230 metres, other games he's running 9 times for 65 metres. And then there's Walsh, who has probably overtaken Latrell and Drinkwater as the laziest Fullback in the NRL this season. And don't even try to pull the "well he's an undersized Fullback so that's why he doesn't run very often", because I'll just present to you the stats of Keano Kini.

Once again - we need to make some tough calls, and recruit better.

I could probably name about 15 other problems, but this is a good place to start.
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Bang on about our middle forward rotation. No speed at all with Carrigan at 13.
 
my 2 cents , off the top of the dome:

- Mariner: he is definitely handy but I think he needs to develop into an 'ado-carr' type winger. Just finish and score tries. Doesn't have the size to be the metre-eater type back.

- Cobbo: We need the 2023 version... he looks slow and sluggish atm, and obviously has some off-field issues. Hopefully we can see him happy and firing in 2025. I think 2025 is up to him to prove himself he can be THE superstar centre/winger

- Riki: We definitely shouldn't pay big money for next contract, he can stay for 'unders' if he wants. Handy to have but, he is definitely not HIM , compared to some of the other backrowers in the comp.

- Piakura: same as Riki but more leeway , he is still raw to the NRL... we need to invest in Piakura. Needs to learn D. Focus on D and the attack seems natural for him.

- Baker: LOL

- Gorgoski: LOL

- Arey: Loved him at the club and I hope he hangs around... I guess I'm a desperate so I'll grasp at straws and hope he can lead us to a title in 2025... but thats a super stretch (would be on the back of walsh/mam)

- Walsh/Mam: honestly, they are the key factors to coming close to a title anytime soon. Need them to have a freakish year, but more importantly a freakish final series (i.e. 2023) Expecting them to become game managers or game controllers is a little foolish. They just need to be them and come up with the freaky plays... and we need to cater other key positions to be the game managers (i.e. 7 and 9)

- B Walters: Had a solid 2023... I think 2025 give him the year but he needs to come up with a real good combo with Mozer... I presume they our best 2 in stock atm. So while developing Mozer, we need to get some form of combo going. Personally, I wish Billy would just keep it simple. Run/pass off the floor/dont make mistakes. That's it. Don't try anything fancy.

- Staggs: I guess the Broncos have marked him to be the GUY. He's been great but he really needs to focus on defense. Pains me to say, but you'd take so many players over Staggs at centre in the NRL. Gone are the days when the Broncos centres were the GUYS.

Overall, talented roster but I still think there is just something 'off' about the forward pack. No team 'fears' playing the Brisbane Broncos... and probably haven't for a while. The 'fear' last year was Walsh/Mam/Cobbo just running rings... but teams have worked out that if you bash the door down at the Broncos, we can't defend it, nor stop the momentum. Nor turn the game with a mongrel forward bashing/hit. Once we are behind or chasing our tail... freakish back plays won't get us there anymore.
 
Its hard because the Broncos DID make the Grand Final last year and were so close to winning it. I'm sure many still think they have what it takes to do it again even with minimal changes. Maybe they are right, who knows. Maybe they'll come in next year with the best attitude in the world and go all the way. Its probably too much to hope for though.
I think the club needs to make some big calls and let go of a few highly paid players to fix the balance elsewhere. In hindsight I think they really should have tried hard to keep Farnworth over Cobbo or Staggs. Maybe let Haas go, even as good as he is, when he wanted out rather sign him to a huge contract?

I think they'll probably give it a red hot go next year as its Reynolds' last. Hopefully make some smart moves over the offseason to strengthen some of the weaknesses. Then if they fail, they'll probably have to have a rebuild of sorts, maybe not a big one, but they'll have to lose some players that they already invested a lot in.
 
Professor47 said:
- Riki: We definitely shouldn't pay big money for next contract, he can stay for 'unders' if he wants. Handy to have but, he is definitely not HIM , compared to some of the other backrowers in the comp.
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Riki is signed until the end of 2027

Professor47 said:
- B Walters: Had a solid 2023... I think 2025 give him the year but he needs to come up with a real good combo with Mozer... I presume they our best 2 in stock atm. So while developing Mozer, we need to get some form of combo going. Personally, I wish Billy would just keep it simple. Run/pass off the floor/dont make mistakes. That's it. Don't try anything fancy.
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Mozer is by far our best 9. He must start. We might need him to play 80 minutes once in a while. But his fitness is nowhere near up to it. Neither is his defence, which was badly exposed by Farnworth. We could use a more wily utility at 14 than Billy, and we should be actively seeking one, but if his father is still head coach, that's his to lose.
 
Unbreakable said:
Problem 2)

We have no yardage from our outside backs. This goes hand in hand with Problem 1. The reason we've felt the need to recruit so many big middle forwards is because our outside backs are low work rate, lazy players. Our roster is constructed completely opposite to the way that the modern NRL is trending. Look at what the Bulldogs have done this year, they figured out the way to go about 24 months ago and have been building the roster around it. Their entire forward pack is undersized, almost exclusively hard working, high character players. They've got the yardage problem completely solved by having Kiraz, Tracey, Xerri, Skelton at the back, all of whom run for 150m+ every week, most of which is in post-contact metres. They've even had Addo-Carr put on about 5kg of muscle in recent years to help with his work out of his own end.

Now compare and contrast that to our current back 5 -

Walsh, Arthars, Staggs, Cobbo, Mariner.

There isn't a single player on that list I would say has an above average work ethic, or ability to make post-contact metres out of trouble. Arthars, Staggs & Mariner are barely hitting 100 metres per game, a lot of which are stat padded by free running metres when Walsh puts them in gaps. Cobbo is marginally better, but he has close to the most inconsistent work rate in the NRL. Some games he's running 18 times for 230 metres, other games he's running 9 times for 65 metres. And then there's Walsh, who has probably overtaken Latrell and Drinkwater as the laziest Fullback in the NRL this season. And don't even try to pull the "well he's an undersized Fullback so that's why he doesn't run very often", because I'll just present to you the stats of Keano Kini.

Once again - we need to make some tough calls, and recruit better.

I could probably name about 15 other problems, but this is a good place to start.
Click to expand...
Aside from the lack of yardage, our backs just make too many errors. Would be interested to see how they compare in that area against other teams. Defensively they are poor as well so it isn't a surprise to see us struggling this year. This all just puts so much extra pressure on our forwards and guys like Carrigan and Haas can only do so much.

As an org we seem to value the flashy stuff over hard work, effort and commitment. That has to change immediately. We need to come up with a framework that is less reliant on individual brillance and more on structures and recruiting the right players. If players can't be coached then let them go ASAP. I'm starting to think that this might be too complicated for our org so just recruit players who can defend.

The fact that Melbourne has dominated us for so long without us really being able to adjust or come up with a gameplan against them is already bad enough but 18 years and counting without a premiership is just not acceptable.
 
McHunt said:
Riki is signed until the end of 2027


Mozer is by far our best 9. He must start. We might need him to play 80 minutes once in a while. But his fitness is nowhere near up to it. Neither is his defence, which was badly exposed by Farnworth. We could use a more wily utility at 14 than Billy, and we should be actively seeking one, but if his father is still head coach, that's his to lose.
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Hmm wonder if hunt is worth approaching again after the weekend spray?
 
Xzei said:
Hmm wonder if hunt is worth approaching again after the weekend spray?
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If Hunt was capable of playing second row maybe but he doesn't really fix our problems this current team faces.
 
mitch222 said:
If Hunt was capable of playing second row maybe but he doesn't really fix our problems this current team faces.
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If we had him in the Grand Final, all we would've needed from him was one short kickoff that didn't go out on the full.
 
Anyone know if Patty and Reynolds actually get along? I know they had that wrestle at the start of the year. Maybe there is still tension between the two and there is a split in the playing group?!!
 
Xzei said:
Was thinking a year at 9 and if the body is good a year at 7 post arey
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That would be fantastic, it really would be. Would be a bit of a fairy tale to come home for a year or two, brings leadership and experience.

This would be a dream come true but he will want way more than we can afford and doesn't want to play 9, so as great as it would be, it won't happen unfortunately.
 
I thought I'd give my post mortem before tonight's game as the result won't change my thoughts, so without further ado, here it is:

Injuries
Definitely one of the biggest factors in our fall from grace. long term injuries to our most important players (Walsh, Reyno and Haas) and many injuries to our depth players. most teams would struggle under those conditions.

Hell, you could count the number of games our full first choice spine played together on one hand.

I also think those dog shots to Walsh's head affected him more than we knew as well.

Attitude / complacency
I think there may have been something to the talk that making the grand final gave our boys (especially the younger ones) a bit of an attitude problem. maybe they thought they could get back there without starting again and putting in the same level of hard work they did in 2023.

I'm sure 2024 will serve as a wake-up call.

Shortened Pre-season / Vegas trip
This sucked and IMO caused us to go into the season under done.

I have no doubt Kevvie learned some lessons from this. it was his first shortened pre-season after all, given our late finish and high number of rep players

Roster
Losing Flegler was by far our biggest loss in the off-season. he was a point of difference in our pack.

I would have also loved to keep Capewell for this season as well, I don't think Piakura was ready to consistently play 80 minutes this season.

I think people have been a bit harsh on Gosiewski. he didn't have a pre-season with us and came in mid-season playing only a few games before his season was over with a broken arm. IMO he is a handy fringe player or 17. a player who can play backrow or fill in a centre is handy to have on the bench in the HIA world.

Baker is an interesting one. clearly brought in to fill Palasia's spot (a player who people only seemed to have started to like after he left us). If you grade him on the generally accepted metric for a prop he wasn't as bad as people make out. I do realise he is unpopular, so we need to change the grading metric to suit the popular agenda 😉

FTR Baker's 2024 stats (before the final round match)
played 11 games for an average of 36 minutes per game
85 runs for 692m - that's an average of 7 runs for 63m per game - or an average of 8.14m per run.
229 tackles with 12 misses - or an average of 20 tackles and 1 miss per game.

given the generally accepted marking metric for a good prop performance is 10m per run. Baker's wasn't too bad. he is a fringe player after all.

Positives
There were a couple of positives this season. Namely, Xavier Willison and Blake Mozer.

Xavier Willison is now an important part of this team after cementing his place this season.

Blake Mozer is coming along nicely, jumping up to number 2 in the hooker pecking order.

it's become clear that Kevvie had a plan for Mozer. Bringing young players along is one of his strongest attributes as a coach IMO.

Post Reynolds
No idea here.

Maybe Black will be ready
Maybe we'll land Walker
Maybe we'll go for a stop gap like Sexton

I'm no longer sold on Madden as the replacement. I think he has the skills, just not sure he'll be able to put them all together consistently

EDIT: probably should quickly touch on Kevvie's future.
As I've consistently said, sacking Kevvie at this point is stupid. afterall, he took over the worst performing wooden spoon side in modern history, rebuilt them from the ground up and took them to within 5 minutes of taking down the greatest team of modern history in the GF

that being said (and I can't believe I'm going to agree with Slothfield 🤮 )

We should give Kevvie a chance to turn it around, he's done that on a couple of occasions since he arrived here. I think the 12 rounds proposed Slothfield is a fair number. by then we'll have a definitive answer on whether he as what it takes to continue to be our coach.

the one trap we shouldn't fall into is giving coaches lenghty tenures even well after it become clear they we're the future, just because they are club legends ... I.e. the Canberra Raiders playbook
 
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