You may be right. They keep pushing money into the future, which is fine when you're paying a guy like prime Brees, but not so much once he's gone. They've had a great defense that's just lost two key parts in Williams and Jenkins, so a downgrade to just good is likely this year. Winston should get some wins on the back of the defense, but that's probably only going to keep them solidly in the middle of the pack and picking in the teens. A quality rookie QB on a cap-friendly deal for a few years would be a godsend, but you've got to be lucky to hit on someone like that halfway through the first round.
I'm also not confident that Allen is the best choice for head coach, but at least it seems he's told Hill he's going to be a TE this year, so that's a point in his favour.