Round 7 - Tigers vs Broncos - Build Up Thread

[Kraven27]

I'm still tossing up whether to take a sign to the game saying "Lockyer is better than Marshall - Please don't punch me Benji"

 

[McBroncos]

Every team is a danger team when you've won 5 straight games.

exactly.. the more you win in a row the closer u are to a loss.

Not really, you are a 50/50 chance

Unless your the roar or firebirds

not every game is 50/50 its not a coin toss. although it is getting more and more like that. but even at 50/50 if u keep betting on the same team your one step closer to a loss.

The in a 2 horse race your chance of winning is 50/50 , on a streak the probability of losing increases ;)

Thats not how probability works.....

 

[levikade]

lol. if its the same event probability of an outcome remains the same.

 

[Coxy]

Yes, but if you do consider a win or loss a 50/50 chance, then while the odds of a win any particular week are always the same, the odds of a 6 game streak are much lower.

0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.015625, or just over 1 in 100.

But yes, having already won 5 in a row (which is a 3 in 100 chance), we're now a 50/50 chance of making it 6 in a row.

It's a totally silly argument anyway, because the games are anything but 50/50. So many variables go into it.

Ah probability. How I loathed thee at high school.

 

[mrslong]

I don't think the Tigers have as many points as usual with the depth of their outside backs being completely used up. Unless Benji & Robbie have a freak of a game we should go pretty well.

Watching for Heighno's super late super high hits on Locky and Wallace all night. He's turned into an undercover grub imo.

 

[Coxy]

You aren't referring to Prince and Cartwright's uber whinge about how Prince was being attacked all night on Friday are you? None of them were high, and none of them was particularly late. He just stayed down like the cheat he is.

Locky has more courage than that.

 

[Coxy]

Chris Heighington may well be suspended for his shot that made Greg Bird even uglier.

 

[Kimlo]

I don't believe in the whole "the more you win the closer you are to a loss" crap.
It's all about form, if we keep outperforming other teams we could win 10 in a row, even if it is very unlikely.

We can win this, I don't believe it's right to be thinking we will lose just because we have won 5 in a row.
We are the better team, if we perform we win IMO, simple as that.

p.s Hope the Dragons lose tonight.

 

[Coxy]

What I'm finding amusing is week after week, fans and journalists keep saying "oh, Broncos won, but their opposition was awful in attack".

I don't think 5 games in a row like that is a coincidence. There's no doubt the Broncos' defence is pressuring teams into error with the ball.

Marshall is under so much pressure without a decent half with him, and Farah is playing busted. I can't see they have the firepower to put points on us. The question is whether we have enough attack to put points on them. If we continue improving in that area, no reason we can't be 6-1 going into Easter.

broncospwn: the "closer to a loss" theory is that to win, you've obviously been playing good, consistent footy. It's human nature that you're going to have an off night. If the Broncos have a lapse in their defensive form then they may well lose. Just as they did in the first half against the Cowboys. 3 fairly soft tries.

 

[mrslong]

You aren't referring to Prince and Cartwright's uber whinge about how Prince was being attacked all night on Friday are you? None of them were high, and none of them was particularly late. He just stayed down like the cheat he is.

Locky has more courage than that.

No, I don't listen to what they have to say.

Hubby and I were just amazed at how many dirty things Heighno has been up to lately, it's getting more and more common. I might have been confused with the Bird shot, but Heighno was grub grub grubby all night. Not in an obvious Paul Gallen way, but in a sly-fox Laffranchi way. I don't like it.

 

[mrslong]

What I'm finding amusing is week after week, fans and journalists keep saying "oh, Broncos won, but their opposition was awful in attack".

I don't think 5 games in a row like that is a coincidence. There's no doubt the Broncos' defence is pressuring teams into error with the ball.

Marshall is under so much pressure without a decent half with him, and Farah is playing busted. I can't see they have the firepower to put points on us. The question is whether we have enough attack to put points on them. If we continue improving in that area, no reason we can't be 6-1 going into Easter.

broncospwn: the "closer to a loss" theory is that to win, you've obviously been playing good, consistent footy. It's human nature that you're going to have an off night. If the Broncos have a lapse in their defensive form then they may well lose. Just as they did in the first half against the Cowboys. 3 fairly soft tries.

Also, teams recognise that they are going to have to play very good against you when you are winning. Therefore it becomes harder to win.

Rock: Heighno never had that crap in his game, but he's snuck it in over the last year or so. Hence my reference undercover grub. He's not an Ennis or Gallen, but he just does these sneaky things, mostly when he's frustrated.

 

[Coxy]

What I'm finding amusing is week after week, fans and journalists keep saying "oh, Broncos won, but their opposition was awful in attack".

I don't think 5 games in a row like that is a coincidence. There's no doubt the Broncos' defence is pressuring teams into error with the ball.

Marshall is under so much pressure without a decent half with him, and Farah is playing busted. I can't see they have the firepower to put points on us. The question is whether we have enough attack to put points on them. If we continue improving in that area, no reason we can't be 6-1 going into Easter..

Well the Tigers aren't exactly the best example of a good defensive team. We'll be right.

True, but we haven't been the best example of a good attacking team either (though, improving). Still need more depth when we get into the 20.

 

[Coxy]

Heighington charged with grade 2 careless high tackle on Bird. Will miss 1 week unless he beats the charge.

 

[Boofhead]

You blokes should win this one easy.

 

[rnabokov]

The Tigers are 1 of the few teams who have the attack to shred any defence - if they are on their game.

This is one game where our attack will need to click. It's about time the points started to flow. All the signs are there, especially the lift in our kicking game.

Hoping the cats will be off their game, or missing Heighington is plain stupid.

 

[PETERN]

Broncos v Wests Tigers, SFS, Friday, 7.35pm

1 Gerard Beale
2 Dale Copley
3 Jack Reed
4 Justin Hodges
5 Jharal Yow Yeh
6 Darren Lockyer (c)
7 Peter Wallace
8 Ben Hannant
9 Andrew McCullough
10 Sam Thaiday
11 Alex Glenn
12 Matt Gillett
13 Corey Parker

Interchang:
14 Mitchell Dodds
15 Dane Carlaw
16 Nick Kenny
17 Ben Hunt

http://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/nrl ... 6041511692

So Ben Hunt returns which is better then having Norman on the bench, thought Gillett was injured for a week or two though?

 

[Coxy]

Gillett's a week to week proposition. Apparently it's a foot injury he's had for a few weeks that isn't improving (according to Locky on the Sunday Footy Show).

 

[Kimlo]

So is Hoffman still injured or has he been dropped?

I thought it was a two week injury, it's been 5 weeks now I think.
Has he been named in lower grades this week?