State of Origin U20s

Discussion in 'State of Origin 2017' started by Unbreakable, May 23, 2017.

    How can you say without doubt that success or failure in the 20's doesn't predict long term Origin future? We're only just entering the point in time when we'll be able to definitively find out..

    The last 5 years isn't long-term, the U20's was introduced 5 years ago, NSW has been successful in the U20's 5 years in a row, that means they're likely going to start reaping the benefits of that prolonged juniors success now, and over the next 5 years as all of those players enter their primes.

    This year is the first year where NSW just flat out has far better players and far more depth than us in all positions, and the fact that they've dominated the U20's for the last 5 years is a further indicator that we're in for a long, long 5-6 years at state level.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
  1. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    I think success in under age teams doesn't mean success in Origin because that is what has always happened. Go back and look at Under 17 and Under 19 results and tell me you can see a pattern? It's all over the shop with success and failures.

    We switched to Under 16, 18 and 20's a few years ago and the same thing is happening. You get two or three players play Origin, probably five or six play NRL.

    Queensland lost the first four Under 18 games, not winning until 2012. But they won Origin before and after that. But out of those 18's side have come Papalli, McGuire, Milford, Morgan, O'Neill and Gagai.

    The result is secondary to what you're producing. Mind you it's nice if Queensland win everything.

    New South Wales might well win a few series and have a great era but I won't be crediting a week long 20's camp.

    As I said the QAS system is year long involvement and continual development of players. Not just week long camp and slap on the back see ya later.

    Queensland have had great success from it. The 2001 team produced Smith, Thurston, Shillington and Hannant. Four Origin players from 18/19's.

    You're completely ignoring every other pathway and just focusing on one by looking at just 20's results. The QAS 20's squad last year had Hess included- you now want him in Origin.
     
  2. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    Queensland's success has also meant not having to blood Under 20's guys. Holmes was fullback in 2014 and Hess played in 2015. They could both easily play soon.
     
    Nobody is.. We're simply saying that they've clearly proven over the last 5 years that they have far superior juniors coming through comparatively to Queensland.

    It's almost inevitable at this point that they have a run similar to the one Queensland just had, not because they have a better U20 Origin camp, but because they have better talent and more depth.

    Only scenario we stand a chance a few years from now is if guys like Taylor, Milford & Munster turn in to the next Cronk, Thurston & Slater.
     
  3. NYCDB

    NYCDB BRL Player

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    U19 Origin existed for like 10 years before it changed to U20 Origin and NSW regularly won that but they didn't go on some 10 year run. I don't have the results but I'd be very surprised if Smith/JT/etc ever beat NSW at U17/U19 level. They were probably getting outplayed by guys like Russell Aitken.

    They've always had far superior "juniors". They've been beating us regularly in junior Origin (17/19s until 2008) since forever. Its not like JT/Smith/Slater and co were winning junior Origins for us and then transitioned to the senior level.

    In 2004, the Blues were in the middle of three straight Origin series wins. NSW U19 won 33-6. Guys like Cameron Phelps, Keith Galloway and Feleti Mateo were dominating. But who's juniors actually kicked on and significantly contributed at senior level? NSW - Brett Stewart, Ben Creagh, Todd Carney, Galloway v Qld - Sam Thaiday, Neville Costigan, Matt Scott, Gavin Cooper (Tom Learoyd-Lahrs actually played for Qld in that game lol). Im pretty sure Blues fans would trade all of those players for the Origin careers Thaiday and Scott have had.

    NSW have great talent and depth (which they always had) and they may win 2 or 3 series in a row (they won't go on a run like we just did).

    The U19/U20 Origin has been around long enough to show that it is not a "further indicator that we're in for a long, long 5-6 years at state level."
     
    Big Pete likes this.
  4. I was going to do a big write up with all the different teams and results from the past 16 years (5 years before the Maroon's dynasty) but thought better of it because eligibility rules changed year to year.

    But here's the scores for those curious

    Under 19s
    2001: Queensland 28 def. NSW 14
    2002: NSW 28 def. Queensland 4*
    2003: Queensland 20 def. NSW 4
    2004: NSW 33 def. Queensland 6
    2005: Queensland 42 def. NSW 12
    2006: NSW 22 def Queensland 10
    2007: NSW 14 def Queensland 10
    *Denotes different eligibility criteria. Thurston, Tonga & Ash Graham played for NSW.

    Under 18s
    2008: NSW 34 def Queensland 10
    2009: NSW 24 def Queensland 6
    2010: NSW 22 def. Queensland 18
    2011: NSW 16 def Queensland 6

    Then they introduced the Under 20s Origin clash which NSW has dominated since it's inception.
     
    NYCDB likes this.
  5. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    Yeah the scores backed up what I was saying I just couldn't be bothered I knew the outcome was going to be that Under 20's is rad and if you are a success at 20's you're set for life.
     
  6. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    Smith didn't even make the Queensland Under 17- Edwards didn't pick him. He was playing six then. He made Under 19's at 18 and 19 and two Junior Roo years in a row after that call.
     
  7. NYCDB

    NYCDB BRL Player

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    Cheers for those results, Pete. You wouldn't happen to have some of those team lists for pre-08 junior Origins would you? I've seen some for one or two years. I'd love to add them to the site.
     
  8. I do mate, I'll PM all the details I have sometime this weekend.
     
  9. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    It was a long domination.

    Eight debutants and 28 players used- most ever, different halves each games- won despite not winning 20's and having no depth and them having all the better players.
     
  10. "It was a long domination." NSW won the U20's again you potato, they're still dominating it..

    Nobody said NSW was going to go on a run whilst we still had the big 4, the issue that was being discussed was what's coming through after they're gone a year or two from now. I'm still quite comfortable in my view that NSW had a far more skilled and deeper squad than us this year, we won because Laurie was too stubborn and afraid to make the necessary adjustments after the tight loss in Game 2. And because we have 4 of the greatest players to ever play the game. It was admirable of Laurie to try and replicate the loyalty system that we created, but it doesn't work when you have pea hearts like Hayne, Dugan & Pearce in your team.

    I'm still dreading 2019 onwards, despite the added confidence I gained from the debuts of guys like Munster, Milford & Napa. The penny will drop at some point over the next 24 months when NSW realise nearly everyone from our era of dominance is retired or fading away.
     
  11. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    Sorry I thought when you said this year was the start of a long long five years you meant 2017 not two years time.
     
  12. Once again, I never said "this year", if you bothered to read the post directly after the one you quoted, I specifically say "Only scenario we stand a chance a few years from now is if guys like Taylor, Milford & Munster turn in to the next Cronk, Thurston & Slater."
     
  13. NYCDB

    NYCDB BRL Player

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    Oh no.

    U20 Origin wins:
    Coen Hess - none
    Valentine Holmes - none
    Anthony Milford - none
    Cameron Munster - none
    Dylan Napa - none
    Corey Oates - none

    Actual Origin series wins:
    Coen Hess - 1
    Valentine Holmes - 1
    Anthony Milford - 1
    Cameron Munster - 1
    Dylan Napa - 1
    Corey Oates - 2

    Queensland's U20 side has produced more Origin players than NSW has too (6 to 5). It's almost as if the U20 Origin result is completely meaningless when it comes to Senior Origin. Our U18s (who have won twice in 10 years) have produced more Origin players than NSW (9 to 7).

    We have great players coming through. Who cares if they lose a one-off game every year. Hell, it'd probably add fire to when they get to Senior Origin, losing to NSW all through the juniors...

    You must think we stand a big chance then, because those half options (plus guys like DCE and Morgan) are much better than what NSW has. NSW don't have transcendent talent like our "Big 4" coming through. Our players are closer to that than guys like Mitchell Moses, Luke Brooks, Nathan Cleary and Brock Lamb.
     
  14. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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  15. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    The QRL have proven since 2001 they know how to build a pathway and have done an excellent job. It's nice to win but the process is what is important and they are still progressing through to Origin and then winning Origin.

    New South Wales may be producing more mature under age players but they're not moving forward.

    As I said the Emerging System and the QAS is a great pathway.
     
    soup likes this.
  16. @1910@1910

    So now you're resorting to taking comments out of context to try and prove me wrong, you never play fair do you? I said this year is the first year that NSW has us covered for talent & depth, not that this year would be the start of a NSW dynasty, as further clarified in a later post, as I told you in my previous post.

    One day 1910, one day.
     
  17. 1910

    1910 State of Origin Rep

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    Not single person alive would interpret that statement of this year and long long five years as in two years.

    You wrote us off- embrace your disloyalty.
     
    As I said, I'm slightly more confident in our prospects of being able to continually compete with NSW over the next 5 years after watching the debuts of Munster, Milford, Holmes, etc.

    The halves isn't my concern (I was saying that our only hope is our halves, because they're going to need to be incredibly special to cover up the other major gaps in our developing youth). My concern is in the forwards and centres. NSW have elite talent coming through in the forwards, potentially generational talents such as Trbojevic, Crighton, Pangai Jr.

    I'm not sure we have the guys coming through to match that crop of talent, guys like Su'A, Ofahengaue & Arrow were meant to be our next generation, they're not progressing fast enough for my liking. Hess is really the only young QLD forward that has progressed as we wanted.
     

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