The Dilemma

[Jeba]

Who ever suggested Norman is a 'certainty???'

 

[Porthoz]

Who ever suggested Norman is a 'certainty???'

Well, Hook has named Norman as Locky's successor, so he certainly looks to have a leg up... But it won't mean anything if someone else clearly puts his hand up during the pre-season.

 

[mrslong]

Bit more complicated than that.

Gillett wanted to play for West Panthers during their finals run, Brisbane cut him because of that.

Don't blame you for not knowing AuDragon, he only played like 5 games off the bench towards the end of the season.

Wow, was that Matt Gillett... I remember Trigger being filthy with the Broncos for that. The Broncos actually wouldn't let him play in the Grand Final is how it happenned, but he did anyway then the Broncos dropped him.

& if i'm not mistaken Jack Reed & DCE also played in that colts GF.

 

[Jeba]

And I believe Gillett played 5/8th in that grand final ;-)

 

[Coxy]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/quest...rmer-wests-colts/story-fn8odvfn-1226143851271

Good article about the Colts coach.

 

[Bull Shark]

NRL defences have gone backwards badly.

that's an interesting observation you've made because if you looked at statistics alone you'd conclude that NRL defenses have gotten far better over the last few seasons.

the average points per game this year (I think around 38) is about 10 ppg lower than 10 years ago when the average was a whopping 48ppg. Infact right through the early 2000s the points scoring was a lot higher on average than it was this year and probably the last three years at least.

Remember in yesteryear when the top attacking teams would average around 28 themselves .. well this season the most prolific offensive team only averaged around 22.4 ppg (Manly) ... and even at the opposite end of the scale, the worst defensive team (Titans) only leaked 26 ppg, whereas around a decade ago or even less you'd find the wooden spooner typically conceeding well over 700 points for the season at an average of around 30 or tick over.

I'm not about to argue though that those stats translate to current day players / teams being better defensively .. Perhaps its got something to do with the way the game is played - ie teams playing a more structured game and less willing to chance to their arm in attack inside their own half (?) Or the "wrestle" slowing down the play the ball could be another reason (?).

One area where players are better nowadays is in their last-ditch defense over or near the tryline .. the number of amazing "held-ups" players achieve, often times on their own, is quite astounding. But the amount of time players spend at training perfecting the dreaded "wrestle" probably has a bit to do with that.

 

[Coxy]

Maybe it's more so the impression I get that when a team gets back to back sets on the opposition's line, in most cases they will score unless they do something braindead. Particularly early in a game.

My impressions earlier in the decade, and certainly last decade, was that it was generally difficult to score early, and that it was about grinding your opponent down, and then you could rape them late in each half. These days it seems to be a fairly consistent scoring pattern from 0-80 minutes.

Again, I have no stats to back it up, I'm simply going by my impression of how the game gets played these days as to how I remember it. Very subjective.

 

[Browny]

The Interchange being reduced would have to contribute as well

 

[noisetheory]

i'm not really sure that defenses have gotten worse. if you think back to the first 10 or 12 rounds of our season, and even look back over the scores, most games were very low scoring affairs. There was maybe one team a round scoring 30 points. Think back to our own broncos team defending so many second halves without a try scored against them. It was around round 9 or 10 when I was getting legitimately bored by the state of the game, defense just seemed too good.

Around origin time and after the game opened up and we got to see a lot more attacking flair. It seemed like defense had slacked off right across the NRL.

I dont know why this is. Is it the refereeing? Essentially - they do control the speed of the game. Did they start pushing defences back an extra yard each play?

 

[m1c]

I certainly don't recall decoy runners being as prevalent as what they are now. Sure they were there in set moves, but not every play. The game has evolved from one out running.

It's no easy task to defend your try line having to make a split second decision between two men running at you. Consider your team mates either side are faced with their own similar choices - all the attacking team needs is one of those players to make a poor read. With the increased mass and power of a modern player it's quite difficult to stop an attacker getting over the advantage line one on one, or if a second defender is unable to commit himself until late in the play. The Broncos were great at exploiting this with Izzy. He wouldn't have run more than 10m for most of his meat pies.

I also think WB has a lot to answer for in regards to the second man play. By no means a new tactic - he took this straight out of Jesus' play book - however he did pioneer the prolific use of this as a low risk-high reward ploy.

 

[Bucking Beads]

I don't think defense has really gotten worse but the under 20's is clearly not focusing on defense.. Need to have a genuine reserve grade comp with a limit of a couple of guys over 23 or something.

 

[Coxy]

I don't think defense has really gotten worse but the under 20's is clearly not focusing on defense.. Need to have a genuine reserve grade comp with a limit of a couple of guys over 23 or something.

Yeah well you know U20s is rubbish when you can arrive with 20 minutes to go and the Broncos are up by 28 points and end up escaping with a draw...

 

[Bucking Beads]

I think it would be much better for the development of players if we got to see all the players in our squad playing in the same side. The Under 20's comp isn't a bad idea but it really isn't of a high quality.

 

[Coxy]

I think it would be much better for the development of players if we got to see all the players in our squad playing in the same side. The Under 20's comp isn't a bad idea but it really isn't of a high quality.

This is what I and others are harping on. Needs to be a level in between. Q Cup has the quality to be that level, but QRL clubs got the shits when the Broncos, especially, had all their reserves playing together at Toowoomba. Not that they won a lot of comps (only 1) but there was a feeling they were too dominant and not giving local club players who have come through the ranks enough of a go.

So instead we have the situation now where it's quicker to list the teams the Broncos AREN'T associated with in the Q Cup. But that's the problem, players are spread around, different teams, different playing styles, different coaching environments.

If we can't put all (or most) of our reserve squad at one Q Cup club, then give us our reserve grade back.

 

[noisetheory]

Now days...12-0 at halftime means NOTHING. Absoluely NOTHING.

this year i started to think of a 12 point margin at half time as the magic number. if you're behind by 12 or less its basically nothing to come back from. anything more than 12 was kinda 'past the point of comfortable' to come back from - but obviously we've seen far bigger comebacks than that this year.

 

[Dexter]

Capewell can play but will need a perfect offseason to get a crack. It will come down to whoever wants it the most and I I agree with Bullshark, Norman doesn't at this stage look ready to step up and demand a spot. Norman will be very good if he does the work but like a lot of talent at any club what they are prepared to do and do without will determine how good they are.

I really hope one of those guys steps up because a halves pairing of Wallace / Hunt has a very pedestrian look about it, which means we are in for some boring forward orientated footy over the next couple of years.

 

[Bull Shark]

I've had the same impression too. This is probably why we've seen more "come backs" in the last 3-4 years or teams seem better at chasing down leads. Last decade, if you were winning by 20 points at half time, then you're home. No doubt about it. Now days, a 20-0 lead can be reduced to nothing within a space of 20-30 minutes if you're not careful. Even if you were leading 12-0 at half time, you'd be very confident of going on and winning. Worst case you win 18-12 and get outscored in the 2nd half, but that 12-0 lead at halftime was crucial.

Now days...12-0 at halftime means NOTHING. Absoluely NOTHING.

I don't have any stats to back this up either, but it's the impression that I get.

I reckon what you're talking about has kind of gone in cycles .. Sure up until about the turn of the century (2000) the type of lead you mention there was far more significant and giant sized comebacks were rare .. Heck I remember thinking how unbelievably incredible it was when the Broncos came back from 22-8 down in the 2nd half against Illawarra one day in the early 90s.

In the early part of this century during that time I mentioned in an earlier post when the average ppg was up around 48 there were some crazy comebacks and momentum swings in games .. I remember the panthers beat the wests tigers in 2000 after being down 31-8 in the second half .. And Parramatta led Melbourne 32-6 at halftime in a game in 2001 and lost .. Obviously with the amount of points that were being traded in games back then it was more conducive to big comebacks ..

But imo the thing that's led to more violent momentum shifts and big comebacks in the last decade or so is the fact the game is played so much flatter in attack .. Take a look at some games from 80s and 90s and earlier and it's almost painful to watch as teams would stand so deep in attack even when hitting it out of their own half and they'd often LOSE ground and lots of it during a tackle. Nowadays teams stand so flat and just keep charging at the opposition as quickly and as flat as possible so it's almost like touch football the way an opposition team back pedals. Add to that the extra athleticism that players possess that allows them to conjour tries and create situations and miracles ect that players just weren't fit or athletic enough to do 12 or more years ago.

So I guess when you also throw in the fact that referees nowadays are always checking on "TRENT" and making sure penalty counts are as close to even as possible by fulltime it can often mean that teams who're behind can get a huge roll on via back to back to back fictional 'square up' penalties that leads to fatiguing of the opposition defense and with that flat fast attack and players added prowess in attacking kicks, the points can rack up very very quickly.

 

[broncos4life]

I posted this on LU and it fits this thread...

By Hook's own admission, Norman is being groomed as Locky's replacement, and I think he's intent on keeping the hooker rotation going with Macca and Hunt as it is now.

In my view, Norman and Capewell (rumor is this kid only needs confidence to be very good) will vye for the halves opening, and only if neither cuts the mustard will he look at Hunt, then Beale and as last resort Qcup or U20's.

Possible options:

1- Hoffman
6- Norman/Capewell
7- Wallace
9- Macca/Hunt

1- Hoffman
6- Wallace
7- Hunt
9- Macca/Baptiste

Going by this year's form and potential, my team would be:

1- Hoffman
2- Beale (wasted here, would really like to give Gagai a chance)
3- Reed
4- Hodges
5- Yow Yeh
6- Norman/Capewell
7- Wallace
8- Hannant (if healed from groin injury and fully fit)
9- McCullough
10-Civoneciva
11-Glenn
12-Thaiday
13-Parker

14-Hunt
15-Gillett
16-Te'o
17-McGuire

We have such a potent forward line that players like Anderson, Hala, Dodds, Lui, Kenny and Carlaw don't get a look in, and Let's not forget there's a couple of young guns in the U20's waiting for a chance too.

Our ranks in the backs are a bit thin, with Copley and Gagai as the only options to cover wing/centre positions, although Te'o, Glenn and even Gillett will do a good job in the centres.

I truly don't know what to do with Beale. He's such a talent, but I can't place him in the 17... :confused:
He probably pips Hoffman in attack, but is nowhere near as good in defense. He's wasted on the wing, as he has little room to move and utilise his offensive skills, and doesn't have that uncanny ability to find the try line. He's defensively not strong enough to take Hodgo or Reed's centre position, and he doesn't have the kicking game to make it in the halves.
Having said that, I fully expect Griffin to keep him on the wing, if anything not to loose him to another club...

All in all, I have no doubt we'll be very competitive in the coming seasons. How competitive? Depends on how good Norman, Capewell or Hunt go in the halves.

Most importantly, Paul White, Andrew Gee and Anthony Griffin restored the pride in the jersey, the camaraderie and willingness to give everything on the paddock for your team mates and the respect/fear/envy from others that we had lost under Cullen/Henkak!

Will they deliver a premiership? I hope so and I believe we have the material to do it, but I want to see what this team is capable of without Lockyer and the emotion of sending him off...

Agree fully here. This season has been the first in a few years that we have been feared and respected. For the Cullen/Henjak years you would never he a team say they view us as a threat without having to hide their smirk