The Run Home

[Brent81]

We might have a tough run home, but equally, it gives us a great shot at the top 4.

Let's look at the present top 8.

1		Rabbitohs	12	26
2		Dragons	12	26
3		Storm	11	24
4		Panthers	11	24
5		Roosters	10	22
6		Sharks	10	22
7		Broncos	10	22
8		Warriors	10	22

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Then let's play a little monopoly and we see what square we land on....

Let's assume that this weekend, we win, Sharks (v Pen), Bunnies, Storm, St Merge and Roosters win.

We are level with Pen, Sharks, Roosters.

Rd 19, let's assume we win (v Pen), Sharks, Bunnies, St Merge, Storm and Roosters win.

We are then in front of Pen on points and 6. Equal with Roosters and Sharks.

Rd 20, let's assume we win (v Sharks), St Merge (v Roosters), win.

Then we are ahead of the Roosters and the Sharks on points - and into 4th spot.

Rd 21 - Bunnies play the Storm, and we play the Dogs, we can get equal on points with the Storm.

Rd 22 Sharks play Storm (Sharks win and we beat the Cows - we are into 3rd).

Rd 23 we play the Bunnies up here.

Rd 24 Chooks in Sydney

Rd 25 Manly up here

I reckon if we win about 6 of the last 8 I reckon we finish top 4 - and we'll have beaten most of the top 8 to get there.

Given the shit we served up at the start of the year - it would be some achievement.

Indeed, if we'd have won against the Knights and the Titans we'd be battling for the minor premiership.

 

[Sproj]

I actually think that if ever a winner could come from outside the top four, this is the year.

I think there are about six teams that can win the whole thing: Storm, Roosters, Dragons, Rabbits, Broncos and Penrith. The Sharks and Warriors will put up a good show but I just don't think they have enough to step up when other teams do. That said, any of the top 8 could win it and not surprise anyone that much.

Every single one of these sides has deficiencies, even the Storm.

The Dragons have a shaky mindset in big moments and have a pretty average backline which may get caught out in the big moments. Their depth is not great either. Key player - Widdop - he goes down, so the Dragons chances, thoug hDufty is a very close second here.

The Storm are always going to be one of the elite sides as long as Slater and Smith are there, and given how well their system works. That said, their glaring deficiency depends on the referees doing their job. If they do, the Storm struggle when they can't wrestle to their hearts are content. Their younger guys are pretty easy to rile up though if you get in their face, that could come back to haunt them. Key player - Smith - origin showed just how much this guy means in any side he plays, he goes down, the Storm will float but sink come finals step up without the future immortal.

The Rabbits look the team to beat for mine, quality all across the park but I suspect they may be peaking a little too early, like the Dragons. Their bench is not a strength though and they lack depth. Key player - Inglis - They need Inglis back as quick as possible, he has matured into a fine leader the older he has gotten.

The Roosters are a dangerous side for anyone. They will compete in every game they play but I think their problem is still the same as previous years, they don't have the ability to step up as much as other teams. Cronk may help that in the big moments but they have a lot of confidence players who really do go missing when the going gets tough, I'm looking at you Latrell. Key player - Cronk - He was bought in as the final piece to ruthlessly replace Pearce, a lot of pressure on the guy but his career has shown he doesn't mind that at all.

Penrith have the best depth of any side in the competition not named Brisbane. However, they have a massive asset where evey other side lacks, they can call in two pretty gun playmakers from reserve grade. They haven't peaked at all (except last week) and have had a huge injury toll all year. This team needs a settled spine as all season they haven't really been able to do it and that is the one weakness for me, plus playing Peachey at centre over Blake. If they can get a 1, 6, 7 and 9 playing harmonious and settled come finals, they are my smokey. Key player - Maloney - can't defend to save himself but every side he is in ends up contending, this is no coincidence, he is pretty much the best non-rep retired half running around these days and while the Panthers have a lot of depth, his big game experience is needed.

This brings us to the Broncs. Everyone knows the weakness - halfback. I'd also argue hooker but there are enough stars around the 9 that this side can often get away with Macca's glaring deficiencies. They also have a genius coach who is starting to show that he may well have figured out how to use this side. Last week showed the depth the Broncs have and it is scary. This side is starting to click and if the spine continues to compliment each other the way they have been, well you just never know, maybe the run is being timed perfectly and the shackles will come off at exactly the right time. Key player - McCullough - simply because of his importance to Milf who has had a great season and no, I'm not joking at all. Milford has been the tactician, magician and technician behind the Broncs all season without getting much help at all from his 1, 7 and 9. Turpin showed what Milf can do when he is given good, crisp service that isn't over his head, behind him, too far in front or simply, too slowly delivered. Should Milf then be the key player? Probably but 2015 showed that if Macca had better game awareness and passing, this team would have 7 premierships now. They don't and Macca hasn't really improved in this glaringly below average part of his game.

 

[Renegade]

Roosters, dragons, storm and ? for the final 4.

I'm not confident in us doing anything this year. Warriors could get their shit together. Question mark over souths too, not sure they can go up the extra gear come finals.

 

[Foordy]

I actually think that if ever a winner could come from outside the top four, this is the year.

I think there are about six teams that can win the whole thing: Storm, Roosters, Dragons, Rabbits, Broncos and Penrith. The Sharks and Warriors will put up a good show but I just don't think they have enough to step up when other teams do. That said, any of the top 8 could win it and not surprise anyone that much.

Every single one of these sides has deficiencies, even the Storm.

The Dragons have a shaky mindset in big moments and have a pretty average backline which may get caught out in the big moments. Their depth is not great either. Key player - Widdop - he goes down, so the Dragons chances, thoug hDufty is a very close second here.

The Storm are always going to be one of the elite sides as long as Slater and Smith are there, and given how well their system works. That said, their glaring deficiency depends on the referees doing their job. If they do, the Storm struggle when they can't wrestle to their hearts are content. Their younger guys are pretty easy to rile up though if you get in their face, that could come back to haunt them. Key player - Smith - origin showed just how much this guy means in any side he plays, he goes down, the Storm will float but sink come finals step up without the future immortal.

The Rabbits look the team to beat for mine, quality all across the park but I suspect they may be peaking a little too early, like the Dragons. Their bench is not a strength though and they lack depth. Key player - Inglis - They need Inglis back as quick as possible, he has matured into a fine leader the older he has gotten.

The Roosters are a dangerous side for anyone. They will compete in every game they play but I think their problem is still the same as previous years, they don't have the ability to step up as much as other teams. Cronk may help that in the big moments but they have a lot of confidence players who really do go missing when the going gets tough, I'm looking at you Latrell. Key player - Cronk - He was bought in as the final piece to ruthlessly replace Pearce, a lot of pressure on the guy but his career has shown he doesn't mind that at all.

Penrith have the best depth of any side in the competition not named Brisbane. However, they have a massive asset where evey other side lacks, they can call in two pretty gun playmakers from reserve grade. They haven't peaked at all (except last week) and have had a huge injury toll all year. This team needs a settled spine as all season they haven't really been able to do it and that is the one weakness for me, plus playing Peachey at centre over Blake. If they can get a 1, 6, 7 and 9 playing harmonious and settled come finals, they are my smokey. Key player - Maloney - can't defend to save himself but every side he is in ends up contending, this is no coincidence, he is pretty much the best non-rep retired half running around these days and while the Panthers have a lot of depth, his big game experience is needed.

This brings us to the Broncs. Everyone knows the weakness - halfback. I'd also argue hooker but there are enough stars around the 9 that this side can often get away with Macca's glaring deficiencies. They also have a genius coach who is starting to show that he may well have figured out how to use this side. Last week showed the depth the Broncs have and it is scary. This side is starting to click and if the spine continues to compliment each other the way they have been, well you just never know, maybe the run is being timed perfectly and the shackles will come off at exactly the right time. Key player - McCullough - simply because of his importance to Milf who has had a great season and no, I'm not joking at all. Milford has been the tactician, magician and technician behind the Broncs all season without getting much help at all from his 1, 7 and 9. Turpin showed what Milf can do when he is given good, crisp service that isn't over his head, behind him, too far in front or simply, too slowly delivered. Should Milf then be the key player? Probably but 2015 showed that if Macca had better game awareness and passing, this team would have 7 premierships now. They don't and Macca hasn't really improved in this glaringly below average part of his game.

holy lengthy post Batman ...

 

[Sproj]

holy lengthy post Batman ...

Well it started out being a nothing post and then ended up being a thesis on the finals bound teams.

 

[Broncs_Fan]

Yeah ... we are not going to win it.

 

[The True King]

Second thesis incoming.

I think Souths are the clear front runner for the premiership. Their roster has almost the perfect balance of experience and skill with massive amounts of speed in key positions. They can flick the switch at any moment and they've shown that their defence is solid too. I know we beat them but its important we remember they were without their pack leader and best player. The only thing I can see derailing their chances would be an injury to Adam Reynolds. Aside from halfback, they have quality depth all over. Key player: Reynolds

I think the Storm are missing Tohu Harris more than Cronk at this point in time. Hoffman has been less than impressive and they can't seem to get Finucane fit. If they had J Bromwich and Finucane fit I would say their pack is still good enough to win it but I suspect not even Smith and Slater can carry them through finals when they come up against bigger packs. Behind the Rabbits I think they are probably the next best chance of winning the thing. Key player: Smith

The Roosters are a genuine chance just based on the quality of the starting side. I think their bench is average and the pack really lacks a solid lock but once they get origin blokes back and Matterson returns they will be a better team with the likes of Radley off the bench. They are yet to really hit their stride or show attacking flair and with five of the remaining eight games against teams in the bottom half I think they'll make top 4 easily and then they're a real threat. Yet to see the best from Tedesco, Latrell and Cronk so that really worries me. Key player: Tedesco

Broncos I have below the teams above in terms of our chances but we are starting to hit our stride at the right time. Despite being poor early in the season we have kept up and now have a real chance of making top 4. Provided we can avoid the Storm, who are our kryptonite in finals, I believe we can beat most teams on our day. The secret to our success is going to be covering Nikorima's liabilities. If teams can exploit his lack of game management and unsettle him it will really turn the screws on Milford and despite having one of the best packs in the competition (even without Gillett) I think we may fall just short. Key player: Milford

Putting last week aside because the Warriors sucked, Penrith have not really impressed me of late. They showed signs early in the season that they would be a premiership threat but without Campbell-Gillard the pack has stuttered. His return will give a better indication of where they are really at and obviously can't read too much into their form through origin with Cleary and Maloney distracted. Impressive thing for me is that they have managed to keep pace with top 4 despite the amount of injuries to their backs. Throw Mansour back in there and they're an outside chance but for me the biggest loss has been Dylan Edwards. Next year I think Penrith will be even better. Key player: Maloney

Not going to go too much into the Dragons because I simply don't think that even with the quality of Widdop that they will be able to cover the cracks that will appear in Ben Hunt's game in finals footy. He's going to inevitably choke and even the biggest pack in the competition will struggle to overcome that. Throw in the liability that is Nightingale's defence out wide and teams will exploit them relatively easily I feel. Key player: Widdop

The Sharks are an outside chance just because their pack is monstrous and they've managed to keep their key players well rested through origin and added depth with Woods. Injuries have hit them hard but blokes like Graham, Lewis and Dugan are on the way back. Moylan has managed to avoid controversy so far and any side with him and Fifita is certainly dangerous. Ramien is a seriously good footy player and the key to their attack but aside from him and Holmes I am not so worried about them scoring enough points. I don't expect them to challenge in the finals given how up and down their season has been and the inconsistency of their spine is an issue. Key player: Fifita

Personally believe the Warriors are there just to make up the numbers at this point. Mentioned it on another threat but their attack is toothless without Tohu Harris. Add the liability of Hiku's defence and the inconsistency of Luke and it's hard to know what is going on or predict anything. I don't think their pack is good enough and aside from Tuivasa-Sheck, Fusitu'a and Johnson there really isn't much to worry about when Tohu isn't on the field. Key player: Harris (should be able to tell by now I have a man-crush on this guy)

Edit: decided I liked the whole key player thing so threw that in there after posting. It's not really who I think is the best player but more the bloke they could least afford to lose.

 

[Morkel]

Well we've already beaten 5 of the other 7 top-8 teams.

Dragons we ran in to a trap, and the Storm we had every chance of winning until the refs decided to change the rules to be "whatever the Storm do is correct".

We may be playing without a genuine halfback, and a fullback with one leg, and a hooker who has the slowest service in the NRL, and a coach who has lost the playing group and is literally insane, and our best defensive player out with a broken neck, and, um, what was my point again? Oh yeah, we may not be a complete team, but this year there are no complete teams.

 

[PerthBrissy987]

If we get to make it Maccas on Bird

 

[Wolfie]

I think if we didnt have that spell where we disrupted the team so much trying to shoehorn bird in, we would be sitting top 4 comfortably.

 

[I bleed Maroon]

Of the current top 8, I think the following is very likely to be true:

1. Souffs - They're the rightful favorites. Their forward pack are scary, Damien Cook is in career best form and they have the likes of Adam Reynolds behind said pack guiding the troops around. Anthony Seibold seems to be the bolter coach of the year too. They will make the Prelims easily. Final finish 1st or 2nd

2. Dragons - I think they're on their way out of the top 4. They have looked very shaky over the past few weeks and their last start was a loss despite scoring 30 points. The 50 pointer curse is also in effect, and while online forums like this one might treat it more as a joke than anything else, that stat will be playing on their minds behind the scenes, and we all know Merge's propensity for dropping off the pace in the latter half of the season. Final finish 5th or 6th

3. Melbourne - It's agonizing to admit it, but they're right in the thick of it yet again. If somehow Slater or Smith announce their retirement from footy this year, you can forget about it, because the fairytale will be on for all money. Quality pack, quality halves with future immortals in 2 key positions. It's the ugly truth but it's the truth nonetheless. They could very well go back2back and insult us even further. Final finish 1st or 2nd

4. Penrith - Same situation as Merge. They've looked very shaky the past few rounds, and while they have been carrying a tonne of injuries for most of their run, those classic Hook coaching signs we've become so familiar with are starting to shine through a bit. With teams such as Rorters and us right up their ass, I just can't see them holding on to the top 4 unless one of those two sides mentioned collapse. Final finish 5th or 6th

5. Roosters - They're starting to hit their straps at the right time of the year, and have a laughably easy draw going forward. Their pack is decent, they have Cronk and Keary in their halves, Tedesco at fullback and the likes of Ferguson and Mitchell on the flanks. And even if you throw all that out the door, no chance does the NRL not allow them to do well. Final finish 3rd

6. Sharks - To be honest, I don't think much of them. I've always thought the likes of Fifita and Gallen were overrated and they have straight up journeyman quality players like Moylan and Townsend in their halves so you look at their squad and think the only players worth feeding are Brailey and Holmes. Their fate in the final 8 feels like it's almost entirely dependent on how well the Broncos do. Final finish 6th, 7th or 8th

7. Broncos - As the old saying goes, go in expecting nothing and you won't be disappointed. We've left it until Round 17 to really put a team to the sword, and it was a heavily Origin effected game against complete nuffies like the Titans...And yet, we've had to do it the hard way from the outset. So many games that have come down to 8 points or less and we've found a way to win them all. We're definitely battle hardened, and now we are looking like a battle hardened side that is finding form at the right time of the year. A young pack that is the envy of the whole comp, superstars like Milford in the halves, an experienced, safe pair of hands in the 1 and a backline that includes the Dally M rookie of the year and 3 representative players. If we beat the Warriors even half comfortably and the Sharks lose, the top 4 beckons. Final finish 4th or 5th

8. Warriors - On current form, and especially if they get beaten by us, the Warriors might wanna get comfortable sitting in 8th. That 6 comp point buffer between them and the Raiders will keep them from dropping out, but patterns of the past give them no credit for finishing any higher. They can consider their game against us on Sunday season defining, which is exactly why we MUST go into it with the right mindset. Kearney is a joke of a coach, but that squad is not to be underestimated. Final finish 7th or 8th

So assuming the best case scenario for the Broncos, by R25 I think it'll look like this:

1. Souths
2. Storm
3. Roosters
4. Broncos
5. Dragons
6. Penrith
7. Sharks/Warriors
8. Warriors/Sharks

Definitely not the sort of top 4 the NRL would like to see as a feel good story for the little men, but at this point it's the most likely outcome.

 

[Kimlo]

This is actually the most confident I've been in a while. Say what you want about the team, no genuine 7, etc, but we've found a way to win close games this year whereas in previous years we've found a way to lose.

To me, winning close games is a better indication of a quality team than simply blowing teams off the park, which just doesn't happen often in the big games that count.

I also, despite my previous years of calling out Milford, think he's developed so damn well that he IS a genuine halfback now, and can carry this team to success, and Nikorima only has to take the pressure off Milford now with some smart running and good choices in attack so opposition teams can't just entirely focus on Milford.

Milford's improvement as a player is one of the most impressive things I've seen to date honestly, he went from a fullback, to a really good 5/8, and then out of necessity of having no fucking halfback, has developed outstandingly well to fill that role. He is definitely deserving of his million dollar salary. His improvement (kicking game, game management) is simply awesome, not many players can add to their game, you only need to look at Hunt, Hoffman, Macca, etc. Most players simply can't go up a level, but Milford has and I believe he will continue to get better.

 

[Battler]

On potential alone we have the best pack in the comp (especially when/ if Gillett returns), a brilliant back line, a classy FB with pedigree who is starting to hit full stride, two dangerous halves (silver lining for not having a proper organising half lol, although Milf has been improving in that regard all year), and the best coach in the comp. Our depth is probably better than any other club as well.

 

[The True King]

On potential alone we have the best pack in the comp (especially when/ if Gillett returns), a brilliant back line, a classy FB with pedigree who is starting to hit full stride, two dangerous halves (silver lining for not having a proper organising half lol, although Milf has been improving in that regard all year), and the best coach in the comp. Our depth is probably better than any other club as well.

Potential does not win premierships unfortunately. It is about having all the right elements and the hitting the balance between experience and talent with abit of luck thrown in.

While I agree with most of your points, particularly the potential of our pack and the backline, I don't think Boyd is anywhere close to 'hitting full stride' and our depth has actually been tested far less than other clubs around us.

For me, the most interesting thing about this finals series will be seeing how our young blokes like Isaako, Su'a, TPJ and to a lesser extent Lodge handle the big matches. While having experienced heads like Boyd, Thaiday, McGuire and Glenn helps, I just think if a team can reach parity with our pack and get at our halves, the lack of big game experience could be the factor that separates teams like Souths and the Storm from us.

 

[ivanhungryjak]

Interesting St George stat - they are 9 and 0 at home but only 3 & 4 away. That doesn’t bode well for them come semi final time.

 

[Accept]

I envision it finishing this way.

1 Stg
2 Syd
3 Melb
4 Pen
5 Bris
6 Sths
7 Cron
8 NZ

GF- Stg v Syd
Premiers- Syd

 

[Battler]

Potential does not win premierships unfortuantely. It is about having all the right elements and the hitting the balance between experience and talent with abit of luck thrown in.

While I agree with most of your points, particularly the potential of our pack and the backline, I don't think Boyd is anywhere close to 'hitting full stride' and our depth has actually been tested far less than other clubs around us.

For me, the most interesting thing about this finals series will be seeing how our young blokes like Isaako, Su'a, TPJ and to a lesser extent Lodge handle the big matches. While having experienced heads like Boyd, Thaiday, McGuire and Glenn helps, I just think if a team can reach parity with our pack and get at our halves, the lack of big game experience could be the factor that separates teams like Souths and the Storm from us.

The Storm don't have a settled half back and look like they are going away from what has worked for them all season (Jacks). Munster especially looks horrible without Jacks in the side, and their pack is extremely average compared to the Drags, Souths, and ours. Thumping a struggling Dragons without a host of players doesn't change that.

The first game we lost to them legitimately everything they tried came off, the second we were a decent chance until reffed out of it after half time. Besides, I get the feeling we haven't been playing to our potential all season, and Bennett said as much in the presser when he said that the season was only really starting as of now. The boys will be switched on.

 

[WASSHHH]

Well it started out being a nothing post and then ended up being a thesis on the finals bound teams.

BRegularSeason, MPostSeason (FinalsCalculator)(Hons).