Top four - will we make it?

[Jip]

So, mathematician types; is it now impossible for us to NOT be in the 8??????

Well let's see, if the Broncos lose all 5 remaining games:
The Dragons would need to win 2 of their last 5.
Penrith would have to win 3 of their last 5.

And 2 of the following teams would have to win 3 of their last 5:
Canberra, Wests Tigers, Titans, Knights/Eels (whoever wins tonight)

If the Broncos win a game:
The Dragons would need to win 3 of their last 5.
Penrith would have to win 4 of their last 5.

And 2 of the following teams would have to win 4 of their last 5:
Canberra, Wests Tigers, Titans, Knights/Eels (whoever wins tonight)

If the Broncos win 2 games:
The Dragons would need to win 4 of their last 5.
Penrith would have to win 5 of their last 5.

And 2 of the following teams would have to win 5 of their last 5:
Canberra, Wests Tigers, Titans, Knights/Eels (whoever wins tonight)

So, no, the Broncos won't miss the 8.

Seriously, how do you work this out? It's like that show Numbers.

 

[Coxy]

It's not hard.

Broncos
Dragons 3 points behind
Panthers 4 points behind
Canberra, Tigers, Titans, Warriors (and either Newcastle/Parramatta) 5 points behind

In order to miss the 8, the Broncos need 4 of those teams to pass them. Therefore, Dragons would need to win 2 more games than the Broncos, Panthers and the others 3 more games than the Broncos in the remaining 5 weeks.

If there's 5 games, then the Broncos can't win more than 2 for that to happen.

Quite simple really :P

 

[mrslong]

Sharks should win about 4 of their last 5 games & the Roosters should win at least 3 of their last 5 games so I don't know if we can make the top 4...

 

[Coxy]

If the Roosters win 3 of their last 5 and Broncos win all 5, the Broncos will finish 4th.

 

[mrslong]

If the Roosters win 3 of their last 5 and Broncos win all 5, the Broncos will finish 4th.

I too can't see us beating the Dragqueens....

 

[bronco_babe77]

I would prefer we finish 5th. We seem to relax a bit on the first week of finals if we get a home final. No advantage. But, in saying that, I will still be happy if they did finish 4th. At the end of the day, it all depends on who we play first up.

 

[Coxy]

OK, so bear in mind the Broncos need to win 2 more games than Sharks, Roosters and Melbourne to finish ahead of them, and 3 more games than Manly to finish ahead of them.

Manly's run home
Storm (home) - L
Souths (away) - W
Tigers (away) - W
Titans (home) - W
Panthers (away) - W

Melbourne's run home
Manly (away) - W
Roosters (home) - W
Panthers (away) - W
Knights (away) - W
Souths (home) - W

Roosters run home
Eels (home) - W
Storm (away) - L
Sharks (away) - L
Rabbitohs (home) - W
Dragons (home) - W (though Dragons have a good record against them)

Sharks run home
Souths (home) - W
Warriors (away) - L
Roosters (home) - W
Tigers (away) - W (though no guarantees that one!)
Cowboys (home) - W

So I think Shaun is right, we're most likely to be able to pip the Roosters. But wins against the Warriors in Auckland and Dragons at home are vital.

 

[mrslong]

The Sharks are the most likely to be the chokers...

 

[Coxy]

Well yes, though the Roosters have been shaky in the past month. Their win over the Cowboys was less than convincing. And they were flogged by Canberra two weeks before that.

Their only good win in recent memory was against Manly, and the Eagles were shocking and injury ravaged that week.

But yes, despite predicting 4/5 for the Sharks run home, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they dropped a couple of them. They don't score a lot of points and if a team is red hot against them in attack, they go down.

 

[mrslong]

Well yes, though the Roosters have been shaky in the past month. Their win over the Cowboys was less than convincing. And they were flogged by Canberra two weeks before that.

Their only good win in recent memory was against Manly, and the Eagles were shocking and injury ravaged that week.

But yes, despite predicting 4/5 for the Sharks run home, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they dropped a couple of them. They don't score a lot of points and if a team is red hot against them in attack, they go down.

Yep and we all know Seymour can't keep good form for more than a few games at a time.

Warriors game will be huge, the Broncos v Brent Tate will be interesting...they will know his weaknesses and play to them.

 

[Coxy]

Yep. Broncos lose this weekend and top 4 is gone. It's just about retaining 5th and work hard to be in form come finals time.

 

[Jeba]

Whether we make the top 4 or not, it is more than likely we will be playing either Roosters or Sharks in week 1 which are both very winnable games. At the moment i have no doubt we are the 3rd best side in the competition, so we just have to find that extra something to put us up a couple of places.

 

[Hamm.0]

My head hurts.

So can I make rnabakov pay me now or what?

P.S. Jeb, we are 4th best IMO. I have a feeling Roosters can beat either Manly or Storm. Especially come semis, when neither team have a home ground advantage. Storm have been average away this year.

 

[Emma]

I would think so Hammo, I've already claimed my money from my best mate who said that we wouldn't make the 8!

 

[Coxy]

If you went to the TAB and asked to claim on the bet (Broncos making the 8) you wouldn't get paid. So no.

 

[Emma]

Picky picky Coxy!

 

[rnabokov]

My head hurts.

So can I make rnabakov pay me now or what?

P.S. Jeb, we are 4th best IMO. I have a feeling Roosters can beat either Manly or Storm. Especially come semis, when neither team have a home ground advantage. Storm have been average away this year.

I'd be happy to pay now - and I now reckon that, if we keep the momentum going, we will end up in the top 4.

 

[jarro65]

I tipped us to finish 5th.

I can't see us getting into the 4, especially not if Hodges gets banned for a couple of weeks [icon_thumbs_do