2019 Season Predictions

[Alec]

Premiers - Broncos
Biggest Improver - Knights
Fall From Grace - Dragons
Dally M Player - Josh Jackson or Bitch Pearce
Origin Series - Qld 2-1,
Wooden Spooners - Can't see anyone but Parra or the Dogs tbh
Top Try Scorer - Corey Oates or Josh Addo
Rookie of the Year - Josh Jackson or Payne Hass

Finally, a call that actually makes sense.

 

[mitch222]

Ill make my bold prediction for the season, Ponga to suffer major second year syndrome. Every team in the comp will target him now and pay attention to every detail in his game. He wont have half as much freedom as he did last year.

 

[Clintos]

Premiers - Roosters
Biggest Improver - Newcastle
Fall From Grace - Storm
Dally M Player - Ponga
Origin Series - NSW
Wooden Spooners - Bulldogs
Top Try Scorer - Brett Morris
Rookie of the Year - Dylan Brown/Albert Hopoate

Top 8
1. Roosters
2. Souths
3. Broncos
4. Panthers
5. Cowboys
6. Sharks
7. Knights
8. Storm

 

[Big Pete]

I don't get the hype around the Cowboys at all, they've lost Thurston and have a spine consisting of Morgan (Severely under performed last season), Granville (Extremely overrated), Martin (Not good), Kahu (Injury prone, also not great). Their forward pack is elite, but that won't cover up the mediocrity of their spine and outside backs, they're going to struggle to score points, big time, I'd say they're closer to the spoon than the top 4 this season.

My perception is that 2018 was a stumble for an otherwise strong club. Ever since Paul Green took over the Cowboys, they've been one of the more resilient sides in the competition and in a competition where so many games are decided by a try or less, that culture usually proves the difference.

As you pointed out, the Cowboys have one of the best forward packs in the competition, which is crucial to making the 8. Any team that has Jason Taumalolo on their roster is going to be in the mix and when you had two Test players in Jordan McLean and Josh McGuire it becomes one of the more formidable packs in the competition. With Scott and Asiata in the rotation, they've got added experience and creativity in the ruck to challenge most teams.

Last year was also always going to be an adjustment period for Coen Hess. After his whirlwind start to the 2017 season, there was always going to be a flattening out period and the decision to turn him into an 80 minute player was going to have it's share of teething problems. I believe there's plenty of room for improvement in Hess and think he has all the makings of an elite edge forward.

Morgan struggled with two issues in 2018. Firstly, he suffered an inopportune abdominal injury that he struggled to overcome. Second, he reverted to a secondary role after making waves as the main playcaller in 2017. In a struggling team down on confidence and cohesion, it's no surprise that Morgan wasn't able to recapture the form he displayed in the 2017 finals series. I believe now that he has had a pre-season to recover and knows his role heading into 2019 he'll become one of the better playmakers of the competition.

I also haven't written off Granville. There's some undeniable imperfections in his game, but when he starts running out of dummy half, there's not many dummy halves that pose as much a threat. If they can find him a suitable replacement, Granville is capable of becoming one of the most potent dummy halves in the competition.

I'm not too fussed over Kahu or Martin but I think both can fill a position. I am high on Jake Clifford and believe he's one of the most talented players coming through the grades and if he can play to his ability, they won't have to look far for JT's replacement.

I could be alone on this, but I rate Nene McDonald as one of the best signings of 2019. Nene was an underrated part of the Titans ascent in 2016 and has been one of the Dragons better performers in 2017-18. At the very least he's an upgrade over Winterstein and he gives the Cowboys another strong runner and finisher. The centres concern me somewhat but they're the one position I think coaches can compromise on.

Maybe this is controversial, but I don't think the Cowboys will miss JT. Last year I had the distinct impression that JT's farewell tour was a burden for the Cowboys and when things turned south, they began to panic. Towards the end of the season when the pressure was off, they began playing good footy and the return of players like Asiata and McLean saw them play the brand of football we've come to expect from them.

Heading into 2019, I believe Green can instill the values he's known for and can get the Cowboys to play the same structured and patient football they've been known for over the years. It won't be enough for them to really contest for a premiership, but enough to get them into the 8.

 

[Unbreakable]

I could be alone on this, but I rate Nene McDonald as one of the best signings of 2019. Nene was an underrated part of the Titans ascent in 2016 and has been one of the Dragons better performers in 2017-18. At the very least he's an upgrade over Winterstein and he gives the Cowboys another strong runner and finisher. The centres concern me somewhat but they're the one position I think coaches can compromise on.

Not alone, I made a prediction (Maybe in the Origin thread?) a few months back that I thought he was a chance for Origin this year, I almost put him down as leading try scorer as well, but that would've contradicted my hot take that the Cowboys aren't good and won't make the 8 :P

Edit: https://broncoshq.com/threads/2019-queensland-line-up.37125/page-4#post-2995241

 

[Porthoz]

Rookie of the Year - Josh Jackson or Payne Hass

I LOL'd

 

[Clintos]

Not alone, I made a prediction (Maybe in the Origin thread?) a few months back that I thought he was a chance for Origin this year, I almost put him down as leading try scorer as well, but that would've contradicted my hot take that the Cowboys aren't good and won't make the 8 :P

Edit: https://broncoshq.com/threads/2019-queensland-line-up.37125/page-4#post-2995241

Yep - I was gutted that I missed him in EVERY. SINGLE. FANTASY. LEAGUE!

 

[Morkel]

I just want our fairytale.

 

[tommy]

I just want our fairytale.

Then stop going to games. As soon as our crowd numbers start dropping we will be handed a premiership.

 

[Morkel]

Then stop going to games. As soon as our crowd numbers start dropping we will be handed a premiership.

Life is already seeing to that!

Edit, but that's not going to force the NRL to do anything. They don't give a **** about crowd numbers. It's TV ratings for them. We need to stop watching the Broncos on FTA. That way they see how much the NRL relies on the Broncos, and we may get some more arvo games instead.

 

[Battler]

Premiers: Broncos (Broncos v Souths GF)

Biggest Improver: Broncos

Fall From Grace: Storm

Dally M Player: Milford

Origin Series: NSW

Wooden Spooners: Dogs

Top Try Scorer: Oates

Rookie of the Year: Xerri

Final top 8:

1. Broncos
2. rorters
3. Souths
4. Panthers
5. Storm
6. Sharks
7. Warriors
8. Eels

7 and 8 are tough because I don't rate any of the sides out of the top 6, so I just went with smokies based on trial form. I don't get people talking up the Dragons: they will be shit without JDB and a reject Broncos halves combo, especially with the talk of Mary playing Dufty on the bench and changing the spine mid-game.

The cows have a massive pack, but more sides are going for mobility and I suspect they will fail if the game is refereed properly (played up tempo with ruck speed emphasised and wrestling penalised). They also have a shocking spine and outside backs, as in wooden spoon standard.

The Eels actually have an amazing pack now with Lane and Paulo. Add in Alvaro and Brown improving and hopefully staying injury free and they will go better than some are predicting. No Hayne and Norman will help them as well as those two are absolute cancers on the clubs they play for, Moses also seems to play better when he has control of a side and Brown looks the goods. Fergo will also help them immensely, as will Gutho playing FB and coming into his second year post-ACL.

I did my own ladder predictor by going through every game and their draw isn't that difficult. Same with the Storm unfortunately

They always seem to have an easy draw in addition to receiving the most penalties.

 

[Big Pete]

This is how my ladder would look like based purely on teams and what the player's have accomplished in recent times.

1. Sydney Roosters
2. South Sydney Rabbitohs
3. Melbourne Storm
4. St. George Illawarra Dragons
5. Penrith Panthers
6. Brisbane Broncos
7. Warriors
8. Cronulla Sharks
------------------------------------
9. Newcastle Knights
10. Canberra Raiders
11. Gold Coast Titans
12. North Queensland Cowboys
13. Manly Sea Eagles
14. Wests Tigers
15. Parramatta Eels
16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

A couple of caveats here. I didn't consider players who are currently under investigation, so players like Jack de Belin and Dylan Walker were kept out of the ratings. I also didn't consider players who are facing long lay-offs on the sideline like Wade Graham and Jordan Rapana. The reason being for the latter, is that they're set to miss a significant chunk of time and there's no guarantee they will hit the ground running. If we were to factor in those players, this is what the rankings would look like:

1. Sydney Roosters
2. St. George Illawarra Dragons
3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
4. Melbourne Storm
5. Cronulla Sharks
6. Penrith Panthers
7. Canberra Raiders
8. Brisbane Broncos
------------------------------------
9. Warriors
10. Newcastle Knights
11. Manly Sea Eagles
12. Gold Coast Titans
13. North Queensland Cowboys
14. Wests Tigers
15. Parramatta Eels
16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

HOWEVER, I believe there's something to be said about having a quality coach on board. So when you factor in their influence, my very basic estimation of 2019 is:

1. Sydney Roosters
2. Melbourne Storm
3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
4. Penrith Panthers
5. Brisbane Broncos
6. St. George Illawarra Dragons
7. North Queensland Cowboys
8. Warriors
------------------------------------------
9. Newcastle Knights
10. Canberra Raiders
11. Manly Sea Eagles
12. Cronulla Sharks
13. Gold Coast Titans
14. Wests Tigers
15. Parramatta Eels
16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Geez I'm getting good at writing up these ladders. Now I think you can see the issue with this approach. Historically there's always been 2 teams who have dropped out of last year's Top 8, if not 3. While this doesn't take into account injuries, it also doesn't factor in form fluctuation and other factors that affect the ladder. Still, it takes some of the guess-work, vibes, intuitions etc. out of it.

My methodology went like so. I rated teams out of ten on Spine (1, 6, 7, 9), Backs (2-5), Forwards (8, 10, 11, 12, 13) where I'd assign each player a score and then calculate the average.

I also rated teams based on their bench. I assigned each player a score out of ten, calculated the average then divided it by 2. My belief is that the bench isn't as valuable as other components of the team.

As for coaches, I assigned them a score out of ten and also divided it by half because a good team can mask an inept coach.

A score of 10 indicated the best player in that position or equal to, a score of 5 meant you were either a rookie or among the worst players.

I'd be curious to see others carry out the exercise and see what results they get.

 

[Morkel]

Interesting method Pete. I did an exercise maybe 5 years ago based on 4 components:

* # of wins from previous year

* +up to 3 points for injuries on previous year. Teams that had horrible injury tolls got 3 points added. Teams that were healthy got 0.

* +/- 2 points for player movements.

* +/- 2 points for gut feel on overachieving or underachieving the previous season.

It turned out pretty accurate in the end. When I have more time I’ll apply that to the teams and see what it ends up with.

 

[Renegade]

The Eels actually have an amazing pack now with Lane and Paulo. Add in Alvaro and Brown improving and hopefully staying injury free and they will go better than some are predicting. No Hayne and Norman will help them as well as those two are absolute cancers on the clubs they play for, Moses also seems to play better when he has control of a side and Brown looks the goods. Fergo will also help them immensely, as will Gutho playing FB and coming into his second year post-ACL.

I loathe to criticize anyones predictions because we're all stabbing in the dark at this point, but Parramatta seemingly do a wonderful job of sucking the life and talent out of players. I expect Lane and Paulo, especially Paulo to regress now he's on a fat contract. Same with Fergo to a degree. There's a difference playing for the Roosters wherein if you aren't at your best they'll replace you, and playing for the perennial cellar-dwellers. Kinda like an attitude thing, well, who you get gonna get to replace me?

 

[Big Pete]

One more ladder for the road.

I'm sticking with the paper method, but I'm rating teams based on how well I believe players will play. I'm going to stick with this as my fifth and final answer, so let's see how it pans out.

1. Sydney Roosters
2. Melbourne Storm
3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
4. Brisbane Broncos
5. Penrith Panthers
6. North Queensland Cowboys
7. Manly Sea Eagles
8. Canberra Raiders
---------------------------------
9. Parramatta Eels
10. Cronulla Sharks
11. Gold Coast Titans
12. Newcastle Knights
13. St. George Illawarra Dragons
14. Warriors
15. Wests Tigers
16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

Here's the 17s for reference.

Spoiler: Team Lists

Brisbane Broncos
1. Darius Boyd 2. Corey Oates 3. Jack Bird 4. James Roberts 5. Jamayne Isaako 6. Anthony Milford 7. Kodi Nikorima 8. Matt Lodge 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Matt Gillett
Interchange: 14. Kotoni Staggs 15. Tevita Pangai Jr 16. David Fifita 17. Payne Haas

Canberra Raiders
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Michael Oldfield 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Royce Hunt 11. Elliott Whitehead 12. Joseph Tapine 13. John Bateman
Interchange: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Iosia Soliola 16. Dunamis Lui 17. Corey Horsburgh

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
1. Nick Meaney 2. Marcelo Montoya 3. Will Hopoate 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Reimis Smith 6. Lachlan Lewis 7. Kieran Foran 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Adam Elliott
Interchange: 14. Jeremy Marshall-King 15. Corey Harawira-Naera 16. Danny Fualalo 17. Sauaso Sue

Cronulla Sharks
1. Matt Moylan 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Josh Dugan 4. Josh Morris 5. Sione Katoa 6. Chad Townsend 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Andrew Fifita 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Matt Prior 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Briton Nikora 13. Paul Gallen
Interchange: 14. Blayke Brailey 15. Aaron Woods 16. Jayson Bakuya 17. Jack Williams

Gold Coast Titans
1. Michael Gordon 2. Anthony Don 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Brian Kelly 5. Phillip Sami 6. Tyrone Roberts 7. Ash Taylor 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Ryan James 13. Jai Arrow
Interchange: 14. Mitch Rein 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Bryce Cartwright 17. Max King

Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Kane Elgey 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Trent Hodkinson 15. Kelepi Tanginoa 16. Corey Waddell 17. Lloyd Perrett

Melbourne Storm
1. Jahrome Hughes 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Will Chambers 4. Curtis Scott 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Brodie Croft 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Joe Stimson 12. Felise Kaufusi 13. Dale Finucane
Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Albert Vete 16. Kenny Bromwich 17. Christian Welch

Newcastle Knights
1. Connor Watson 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Hymel Hunt 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Kalyn Ponga 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Danny Levi 10. James Gavet 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Sione Mata’utia 13. Tim Glasby
Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Herman Ese’ese 16. Daniel Saifiti 17. Aidan Guerra

North Queensland Cowboys
1. Jordan Kahu 2. Nene McDonald 3. Justin O’Neil 4. Ben Hampton 5. Kyle Feldt 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Michael Morgan 8. Josh McGuire 9. Jake Granville 10. Jordan McLean 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange: 14. Mitch Dunn 15. Mat Scott 16. John Asiata 17. Corey Jensen

Parramatta Eels
1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Blake Ferguson 3. Michael Jennings 4. Brad Takairangi 5. George Jennings 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitch Moses 8. Junior Paulo 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Daniel Alvaro 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tepai Moeroa
Interchange: 14. Will Smith 15. Nathan Brown 16. Tim Mannah 17. Manu Ma’u

Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Waqa Blake 4. Dean Whare 5. Josh Mansour 6. James Maloney 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Sione Katoa 10. James Tamou 11. Isaah Yeo 12. Viliame Kikau 13. James Fisher-Harris
Interchange: 14. Wayde Egan 15. Tyrell Fuimaono 16. Moses Leota 17. Jack Hetherington

South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Alex Johnston 2. Dane Gagai 3. Greg Inglis 4. Braidon Burns 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. George Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. John Sutton 12. Sam Burgess 13. Cameron Murray
Interchange: 14. Adam Douehi 15. Liam Knight 16. Junior Tatola 17. Dean Britt

St. George Illawarra Dragons
1. Gareth Widdop 2. Mikaele Ravalawa 3. Euan Aitken 4. Tim Lafai 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Cameron McInnes 10. James Graham 11. Tariq Sims 12. Tyson Frizell 13. Blake Lawrie
Interchange: 14. Matt Dufty 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Luciano Leilua 17. Korbin Sims

Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco 2. Brett Morris 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joseph Manu 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jared Warea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Friend 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Angus Crichton 13. Victor Radley
Interchange: 14. Mitch Aubusson 15. Issac Liu 16. Zane Tetevano 17. Lindsay Collins

Warriors
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitua 3. Peta Hiku 4. Solomone Kata 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Blake Green 7. Adam Keighran 8. Leeson Ah Mau 9. Issac Luke 10. Agnatius Paasi 11. Isaiah Papalii 12. Tohu Harris 13. Adam Blair
Interchange: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Sam Lisone 16. Lachlan Burr 17. Bunty Afoa

Wests Tigers
1. Moses Mbye 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Esan Marsters 4. Robert Jennings 5. Corey Thompson 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Russell Packer 9. Robbie Farah 10. Ben Matulino 11. Chris Lawrence 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Elijah Taylor
Interchange: 14. Michael Chee-Kam 15. Alex Twal 16. Matt Eisenhuth 17. Thomas Mikaele

I get the feeling that the bold ladder from my previous post will end up being more accurate.

 

[Footy Fanatic]

1 Souths
2 Sydney
3 Penrith
4 NQ
5 Melb
6 Stg
7 Newc
8 Bris
9 GC
10 NZ
11 Cron
12 Parra
13 Canb
14 Cant
15 Manly
16 Wests

Premiers: Roosters

Can't see Newcastle being above us on the ladder. Think we are more likely to finish in the 2-6 range.

 

[ZTop]

Premiers
Broncos
Biggest Improver
Parramatta Eels
Fall From Grace
Dragons
Dally M Player
Mitch Moses
Origin Series
Qld 2-1
Wooden Spooners
Bulldogs
Top Try Scorer
Reimis Smith
Rookie of the Year
Dylan Brown
Final top 8
Roosters
Broncos
Sharks
Panthers
Storm
Eels
Raiders
Cowboys

 

[Dexter]

Interesting to see the predicted ladder now with 2 weeks of exposed form and some injuries to key players already.
Anyone want a do over