Unbreakable said:
I don't get the hype around the Cowboys at all, they've lost Thurston and have a spine consisting of Morgan (Severely under performed last season), Granville (Extremely overrated), Martin (Not good), Kahu (Injury prone, also not great). Their forward pack is elite, but that won't cover up the mediocrity of their spine and outside backs, they're going to struggle to score points, big time, I'd say they're closer to the spoon than the top 4 this season.
My perception is that 2018 was a stumble for an otherwise strong club. Ever since Paul Green took over the Cowboys, they've been one of the more resilient sides in the competition and in a competition where so many games are decided by a try or less, that culture usually proves the difference.
As you pointed out, the Cowboys have one of the best forward packs in the competition, which is crucial to making the 8. Any team that has Jason Taumalolo on their roster is going to be in the mix and when you had two Test players in Jordan McLean and Josh McGuire it becomes one of the more formidable packs in the competition. With Scott and Asiata in the rotation, they've got added experience and creativity in the ruck to challenge most teams.
Last year was also always going to be an adjustment period for Coen Hess. After his whirlwind start to the 2017 season, there was always going to be a flattening out period and the decision to turn him into an 80 minute player was going to have it's share of teething problems. I believe there's plenty of room for improvement in Hess and think he has all the makings of an elite edge forward.
Morgan struggled with two issues in 2018. Firstly, he suffered an inopportune abdominal injury that he struggled to overcome. Second, he reverted to a secondary role after making waves as the main playcaller in 2017. In a struggling team down on confidence and cohesion, it's no surprise that Morgan wasn't able to recapture the form he displayed in the 2017 finals series. I believe now that he has had a pre-season to recover and knows his role heading into 2019 he'll become one of the better playmakers of the competition.
I also haven't written off Granville. There's some undeniable imperfections in his game, but when he starts running out of dummy half, there's not many dummy halves that pose as much a threat. If they can find him a suitable replacement, Granville is capable of becoming one of the most potent dummy halves in the competition.
I'm not too fussed over Kahu or Martin but I think both can fill a position. I am high on Jake Clifford and believe he's one of the most talented players coming through the grades and if he can play to his ability, they won't have to look far for JT's replacement.
I could be alone on this, but I rate Nene McDonald as one of the best signings of 2019. Nene was an underrated part of the Titans ascent in 2016 and has been one of the Dragons better performers in 2017-18. At the very least he's an upgrade over Winterstein and he gives the Cowboys another strong runner and finisher. The centres concern me somewhat but they're the one position I think coaches can compromise on.
Maybe this is controversial, but I don't think the Cowboys will miss JT. Last year I had the distinct impression that JT's farewell tour was a burden for the Cowboys and when things turned south, they began to panic. Towards the end of the season when the pressure was off, they began playing good footy and the return of players like Asiata and McLean saw them play the brand of football we've come to expect from them.
Heading into 2019, I believe Green can instill the values he's known for and can get the Cowboys to play the same structured and patient football they've been known for over the years. It won't be enough for them to really contest for a premiership, but enough to get them into the 8.