2019 Season Predictions

Discussion in 'Rugby League Talk' started by Fitzy, Dec 26, 2018.

    Not alone, I made a prediction (Maybe in the Origin thread?) a few months back that I thought he was a chance for Origin this year, I almost put him down as leading try scorer as well, but that would've contradicted my hot take that the Cowboys aren't good and won't make the 8 :P

    Edit: https://broncoshq.com/threads/2019-queensland-line-up.37125/page-4#post-2995241
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2019
  1. I LOL'd
     
    Harry Sack likes this.
  2. Clintos

    Clintos NRL Captain

    Yep - I was gutted that I missed him in EVERY. SINGLE. FANTASY. LEAGUE!
     
  3. Morkel

    Morkel

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    I just want our fairytale.
     
    Locky's Left Boot likes this.
  4. Tom

    Tom NRL Captain

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    Then stop going to games. As soon as our crowd numbers start dropping we will be handed a premiership.
     
  5. Morkel

    Morkel

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    Life is already seeing to that!

    Edit, but that's not going to force the NRL to do anything. They don't give a **** about crowd numbers. It's TV ratings for them. We need to stop watching the Broncos on FTA. That way they see how much the NRL relies on the Broncos, and we may get some more arvo games instead.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2019
  6. Battler

    Battler NRL Captain

    Premiers: Broncos (Broncos v Souths GF)

    Biggest Improver:
    Broncos

    Fall From Grace: Storm

    Dally M Player: Milford

    Origin Series: NSW

    Wooden Spooners: Dogs

    Top Try Scorer: Oates

    Rookie of the Year: Xerri

    Final top 8:

    1. Broncos
    2. rorters
    3. Souths
    4. Panthers
    5. Storm
    6. Sharks
    7. Warriors
    8. Eels

    7 and 8 are tough because I don't rate any of the sides out of the top 6, so I just went with smokies based on trial form. I don't get people talking up the Dragons: they will be shit without JDB and a reject Broncos halves combo, especially with the talk of Mary playing Dufty on the bench and changing the spine mid-game.

    The cows have a massive pack, but more sides are going for mobility and I suspect they will fail if the game is refereed properly (played up tempo with ruck speed emphasised and wrestling penalised). They also have a shocking spine and outside backs, as in wooden spoon standard.

    The Eels actually have an amazing pack now with Lane and Paulo. Add in Alvaro and Brown improving and hopefully staying injury free and they will go better than some are predicting. No Hayne and Norman will help them as well as those two are absolute cancers on the clubs they play for, Moses also seems to play better when he has control of a side and Brown looks the goods. Fergo will also help them immensely, as will Gutho playing FB and coming into his second year post-ACL.

    They always seem to have an easy draw in addition to receiving the most penalties.
     
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2019
    Big Pete likes this.
  7. This is how my ladder would look like based purely on teams and what the player's have accomplished in recent times.

    1. Sydney Roosters
    2. South Sydney Rabbitohs
    3. Melbourne Storm
    4. St. George Illawarra Dragons
    5. Penrith Panthers
    6. Brisbane Broncos
    7. Warriors
    8. Cronulla Sharks
    ------------------------------------
    9. Newcastle Knights
    10. Canberra Raiders
    11. Gold Coast Titans
    12. North Queensland Cowboys
    13. Manly Sea Eagles
    14. Wests Tigers
    15. Parramatta Eels
    16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

    A couple of caveats here. I didn't consider players who are currently under investigation, so players like Jack de Belin and Dylan Walker were kept out of the ratings. I also didn't consider players who are facing long lay-offs on the sideline like Wade Graham and Jordan Rapana. The reason being for the latter, is that they're set to miss a significant chunk of time and there's no guarantee they will hit the ground running. If we were to factor in those players, this is what the rankings would look like:

    1. Sydney Roosters
    2. St. George Illawarra Dragons
    3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
    4. Melbourne Storm
    5. Cronulla Sharks
    6. Penrith Panthers
    7. Canberra Raiders
    8. Brisbane Broncos
    ------------------------------------
    9. Warriors
    10. Newcastle Knights
    11. Manly Sea Eagles
    12. Gold Coast Titans
    13. North Queensland Cowboys
    14. Wests Tigers
    15. Parramatta Eels
    16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

    HOWEVER, I believe there's something to be said about having a quality coach on board. So when you factor in their influence, my very basic estimation of 2019 is:

    1. Sydney Roosters
    2. Melbourne Storm
    3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
    4. Penrith Panthers
    5. Brisbane Broncos
    6. St. George Illawarra Dragons
    7. North Queensland Cowboys
    8. Warriors
    ------------------------------------------
    9. Newcastle Knights
    10. Canberra Raiders
    11. Manly Sea Eagles
    12. Cronulla Sharks
    13. Gold Coast Titans
    14. Wests Tigers
    15. Parramatta Eels
    16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs


    Geez I'm getting good at writing up these ladders. Now I think you can see the issue with this approach. Historically there's always been 2 teams who have dropped out of last year's Top 8, if not 3. While this doesn't take into account injuries, it also doesn't factor in form fluctuation and other factors that affect the ladder. Still, it takes some of the guess-work, vibes, intuitions etc. out of it.

    My methodology went like so. I rated teams out of ten on Spine (1, 6, 7, 9), Backs (2-5), Forwards (8, 10, 11, 12, 13) where I'd assign each player a score and then calculate the average.

    I also rated teams based on their bench. I assigned each player a score out of ten, calculated the average then divided it by 2. My belief is that the bench isn't as valuable as other components of the team.

    As for coaches, I assigned them a score out of ten and also divided it by half because a good team can mask an inept coach.

    A score of 10 indicated the best player in that position or equal to, a score of 5 meant you were either a rookie or among the worst players.

    I'd be curious to see others carry out the exercise and see what results they get.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2019
    Dexter likes this.
  8. Morkel

    Morkel

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    Interesting method Pete. I did an exercise maybe 5 years ago based on 4 components:

    * # of wins from previous year

    * +up to 3 points for injuries on previous year. Teams that had horrible injury tolls got 3 points added. Teams that were healthy got 0.

    * +/- 2 points for player movements.

    * +/- 2 points for gut feel on overachieving or underachieving the previous season.

    It turned out pretty accurate in the end. When I have more time I’ll apply that to the teams and see what it ends up with.
     
    Big Pete likes this.
  9. Renegade

    Renegade NRL Captain

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    I loathe to criticize anyones predictions because we're all stabbing in the dark at this point, but Parramatta seemingly do a wonderful job of sucking the life and talent out of players. I expect Lane and Paulo, especially Paulo to regress now he's on a fat contract. Same with Fergo to a degree. There's a difference playing for the Roosters wherein if you aren't at your best they'll replace you, and playing for the perennial cellar-dwellers. Kinda like an attitude thing, well, who you get gonna get to replace me?
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2019
  10. One more ladder for the road.

    I'm sticking with the paper method, but I'm rating teams based on how well I believe players will play. I'm going to stick with this as my fifth and final answer, so let's see how it pans out.

    1. Sydney Roosters
    2. Melbourne Storm
    3. South Sydney Rabbitohs
    4. Brisbane Broncos
    5. Penrith Panthers
    6. North Queensland Cowboys
    7. Manly Sea Eagles
    8. Canberra Raiders
    ---------------------------------
    9. Parramatta Eels
    10. Cronulla Sharks
    11. Gold Coast Titans
    12. Newcastle Knights
    13. St. George Illawarra Dragons
    14. Warriors
    15. Wests Tigers
    16. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

    Here's the 17s for reference.

    Brisbane Broncos
    1. Darius Boyd 2. Corey Oates 3. Jack Bird 4. James Roberts 5. Jamayne Isaako 6. Anthony Milford 7. Kodi Nikorima 8. Matt Lodge 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Joe Ofahengaue 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Matt Gillett
    Interchange: 14. Kotoni Staggs 15. Tevita Pangai Jr 16. David Fifita 17. Payne Haas

    Canberra Raiders
    1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Michael Oldfield 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Joseph Leilua 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. Aidan Sezer 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Royce Hunt 11. Elliott Whitehead 12. Joseph Tapine 13. John Bateman
    Interchange: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Iosia Soliola 16. Dunamis Lui 17. Corey Horsburgh

    Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
    1. Nick Meaney 2. Marcelo Montoya 3. Will Hopoate 4. Kerrod Holland 5. Reimis Smith 6. Lachlan Lewis 7. Kieran Foran 8. Aiden Tolman 9. Michael Lichaa 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 13. Adam Elliott
    Interchange: 14. Jeremy Marshall-King 15. Corey Harawira-Naera 16. Danny Fualalo 17. Sauaso Sue

    Cronulla Sharks
    1. Matt Moylan 2. Sosaia Feki 3. Josh Dugan 4. Josh Morris 5. Sione Katoa 6. Chad Townsend 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Andrew Fifita 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Matt Prior 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Briton Nikora 13. Paul Gallen
    Interchange: 14. Blayke Brailey 15. Aaron Woods 16. Jayson Bakuya 17. Jack Williams

    Gold Coast Titans
    1. Michael Gordon 2. Anthony Don 3. Tyrone Peachey 4. Brian Kelly 5. Phillip Sami 6. Tyrone Roberts 7. Ash Taylor 8. Jarrod Wallace 9. Nathan Peats 10. Shannon Boyd 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Ryan James 13. Jai Arrow
    Interchange: 14. Mitch Rein 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Bryce Cartwright 17. Max King

    Manly Sea Eagles
    1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Albert Hopoate 6. Kane Elgey 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic
    Interchange: 14. Trent Hodkinson 15. Kelepi Tanginoa 16. Corey Waddell 17. Lloyd Perrett

    Melbourne Storm
    1. Jahrome Hughes 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Will Chambers 4. Curtis Scott 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Brodie Croft 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Joe Stimson 12. Felise Kaufusi 13. Dale Finucane
    Interchange: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Albert Vete 16. Kenny Bromwich 17. Christian Welch

    Newcastle Knights
    1. Connor Watson 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Hymel Hunt 5. Shaun Kenny-Dowall 6. Kalyn Ponga 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Danny Levi 10. James Gavet 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Sione Mata’utia 13. Tim Glasby
    Interchange: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Herman Ese’ese 16. Daniel Saifiti 17. Aidan Guerra

    North Queensland Cowboys
    1. Jordan Kahu 2. Nene McDonald 3. Justin O’Neil 4. Ben Hampton 5. Kyle Feldt 6. Te Maire Martin 7. Michael Morgan 8. Josh McGuire 9. Jake Granville 10. Jordan McLean 11. Gavin Cooper 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo
    Interchange: 14. Mitch Dunn 15. Mat Scott 16. John Asiata 17. Corey Jensen

    Parramatta Eels
    1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Blake Ferguson 3. Michael Jennings 4. Brad Takairangi 5. George Jennings 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitch Moses 8. Junior Paulo 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Daniel Alvaro 11. Shaun Lane 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tepai Moeroa
    Interchange: 14. Will Smith 15. Nathan Brown 16. Tim Mannah 17. Manu Ma’u

    Penrith Panthers
    1. Dylan Edwards 2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 3. Waqa Blake 4. Dean Whare 5. Josh Mansour 6. James Maloney 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Sione Katoa 10. James Tamou 11. Isaah Yeo 12. Viliame Kikau 13. James Fisher-Harris
    Interchange: 14. Wayde Egan 15. Tyrell Fuimaono 16. Moses Leota 17. Jack Hetherington

    South Sydney Rabbitohs
    1. Alex Johnston 2. Dane Gagai 3. Greg Inglis 4. Braidon Burns 5. Campbell Graham 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. George Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. John Sutton 12. Sam Burgess 13. Cameron Murray
    Interchange: 14. Adam Douehi 15. Liam Knight 16. Junior Tatola 17. Dean Britt

    St. George Illawarra Dragons
    1. Gareth Widdop 2. Mikaele Ravalawa 3. Euan Aitken 4. Tim Lafai 5. Jordan Pereira 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Cameron McInnes 10. James Graham 11. Tariq Sims 12. Tyson Frizell 13. Blake Lawrie
    Interchange: 14. Matt Dufty 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Luciano Leilua 17. Korbin Sims

    Sydney Roosters
    1. James Tedesco 2. Brett Morris 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Joseph Manu 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Luke Keary 7. Cooper Cronk 8. Jared Warea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Friend 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Angus Crichton 13. Victor Radley
    Interchange: 14. Mitch Aubusson 15. Issac Liu 16. Zane Tetevano 17. Lindsay Collins

    Warriors
    1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. David Fusitua 3. Peta Hiku 4. Solomone Kata 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Blake Green 7. Adam Keighran 8. Leeson Ah Mau 9. Issac Luke 10. Agnatius Paasi 11. Isaiah Papalii 12. Tohu Harris 13. Adam Blair
    Interchange: 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Sam Lisone 16. Lachlan Burr 17. Bunty Afoa

    Wests Tigers
    1. Moses Mbye 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Esan Marsters 4. Robert Jennings 5. Corey Thompson 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Russell Packer 9. Robbie Farah 10. Ben Matulino 11. Chris Lawrence 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Elijah Taylor
    Interchange: 14. Michael Chee-Kam 15. Alex Twal 16. Matt Eisenhuth 17. Thomas Mikaele

    I get the feeling that the bold ladder from my previous post will end up being more accurate.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2019
    GCBRONCO likes this.
  11. Footy Fanatic

    Footy Fanatic BRL Player

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    Can't see Newcastle being above us on the ladder. Think we are more likely to finish in the 2-6 range.
     
  12. GKDonkey

    GKDonkey NRL Captain

    4,767
    1,198
    Premiers
    Broncos
    Biggest Improver
    Parramatta Eels
    Fall From Grace
    Dragons
    Dally M Player
    Mitch Moses
    Origin Series
    Qld 2-1
    Wooden Spooners
    Bulldogs
    Top Try Scorer
    Reimis Smith
    Rookie of the Year
    Dylan Brown
    Final top 8
    Roosters
    Broncos
    Sharks
    Panthers
    Storm
    Eels
    Raiders
    Cowboys
     
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