Broncos Vs. Warriors - Build Up Thread

[Dave]

Mate I agree with all that but the fact is they are usually right on the money, especially in sports betting. There wouldn't be too many instances in sports betting where you look at the prices and think they have it totally wrong - hardly ever would you assess a game at home and think - Gee this team is going well, they should be odds on - and then when you look up the odds they are paying $4 or $5 for the win.

I think you are underestimating the contacts they have around the place though - betting agencies are usually one of the first to know about anything that could dramtically alter the odds or the result of a game, it's in their best interests to know anything and everything going on at the clubs and they make sure they have contacts who will feed them that information.

 

[Kimlo]

Really? I see plenty of upsets happen every weekend. By upsets I mean the people who favorites according the bookies losing.

 

[Nashy]

What are you talking about? Are you seriously telling me that there aren't at least 2 games a week where you don't think that they have it wrong?

They do get it wrong, just like everyone else. It doesn't matter what information they have, they are still making a guess.

 

[Kimlo]

What are you talking about? Are you seriously telling me that there aren't at least 2 games a week where you don't think that they have it wrong?

They do get it wrong, just like everyone else. It doesn't matter what information they have, they are still making a guess.

Exactly, I fully agree with Queenslander, who gives a shit what bookies think, their guess is as good as anyone else.

 

[Dave]

Here are the prices for round 3 then Nashy - you tell me which ones the bookies have completely wrong. If you think bookmakers guess about anything mate then you have no idea how bookmaking works

Wests Tigers 2.40 (+4.5) 1.90 (+2.5) 2.10
Parramatta Eels 1.55 (-4.5) 1.90 (-6.5) 2.10

St George Illawarra Dragons 1.33 (-8.5) 1.90 (-10.5) 2.10
North Queensland Cowboys 3.25 (+8.5) 1.90 (+6.5) 2.10

Penrith Panthers 2.10 (+2.5) 1.85 (+0.5) 2.00
Melbourne Storm 1.72 (-2.5) 1.95 (-4.5) 2.15

Manly Sea Eagles 1.60 (-3.5) 1.90 (-5.5) 2.10
Newcastle Knights 2.30 (+3.5) 1.90 (+1.5) 2.10

Gold Coast Titans 1.26 (-9.5) 1.90 (-11.5) 2.10
Canberra Raiders 3.75 (+9.5) 1.90 (+7.5) 2.10

Brisbane Broncos 1.46 (-6.5) 1.95 (-8.5) 2.10
New Zealand Warriors 2.65 (+6.5) 1.85 (+4.5) 2.10

Bulldogs 1.85 (-1.5) 1.95 (-3.5) 2.10
Sydney Roosters 1.95 (+1.5) 1.85 (-1.5) 2.05

Cronulla Sharks 2.05 (+1.5) 1.95 (-1.5) 2.15
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1.75 (-1.5) 1.85 (-3.5) 2.05

 

[Nashy]

Alrighty. Here's my tips. Difference is. I don't play with money, so you tell me what tips of mine are wrong.

Eels
Dragons
Storm
Knights
Raiders
Warriors
Bulldogs
Rabbitohs

I will give you $10 if the bookies get all of those right, based on those figures right there.

 

[Jeba]

I don't think you understand what Dave is saying Nashy. Of course most weekends don't go without an upset. And he's not asking who you would tip. He is asking if there are any odds there that you think are way off the mark??

 

[Dave]

Mate I don't want your money - I am just trying to say that as a punter it is very hard in sports betting to find a team that you think is way over the odds. Not many teams paying $1.20 get beaten and that is why bookmakers drive BMW's and Mercedes - the $10 or $20 punter doesn't want to have it on a team @ $1.20 and make $4 or $5 profit, he/she wants a big return for theur hard earned. I don't do 1% of the research a bookmaker does but you obviously think the Raiders can back up 5 days later, travel away from Canberra where they have won 1 from their last 12 and are up against a Titans team who have won something like 12 of their last 13 at home. You find a sports bookmaker and ask them for a look at their betting sheets - all the big money in sports betting goes on the favourites.

Good on you Nashy, the Raiders may win but if you keep backing $3.75 shots in footy against teams that are 4 to 1 on your bookmaker will be able to buy a second Mercedes sooner rather than later. You can't deny that in sports betting the favourites have a pretty good strike rate when it comes to winning matches

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

Here are the prices for round 3 then Nashy - you tell me which ones the bookies have completely wrong. If you think bookmakers guess about anything mate then you have no idea how bookmaking works

Wests Tigers 2.40 (+4.5) 1.90 (+2.5) 2.10
Parramatta Eels 1.55 (-4.5) 1.90 (-6.5) 2.10

St George Illawarra Dragons 1.33 (-8.5) 1.90 (-10.5) 2.10
North Queensland Cowboys 3.25 (+8.5) 1.90 (+6.5) 2.10

Penrith Panthers 2.10 (+2.5) 1.85 (+0.5) 2.00
Melbourne Storm 1.72 (-2.5) 1.95 (-4.5) 2.15

Manly Sea Eagles 1.60 (-3.5) 1.90 (-5.5) 2.10
Newcastle Knights 2.30 (+3.5) 1.90 (+1.5) 2.10

Gold Coast Titans 1.26 (-9.5) 1.90 (-11.5) 2.10
Canberra Raiders 3.75 (+9.5) 1.90 (+7.5) 2.10

Brisbane Broncos 1.46 (-6.5) 1.95 (-8.5) 2.10
New Zealand Warriors 2.65 (+6.5) 1.85 (+4.5) 2.10

Bulldogs 1.85 (-1.5) 1.95 (-3.5) 2.10
Sydney Roosters 1.95 (+1.5) 1.85 (-1.5) 2.05

Cronulla Sharks 2.05 (+1.5) 1.95 (-1.5) 2.15
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1.75 (-1.5) 1.85 (-3.5) 2.05

How about we tell u after the round is over, since they are so good they wont get any wrong anyway.

Im not arguing about their odds, im saying they get it wrong on a head to head basis, just as much as u or i. they cant see the future mate

and dave, seriously, they dont drive bmw's etc because they are good at picking winners... they drive them because they are good at assessing who is more likely to win in the publics eye, then using a formula so that even if the underdog wins, the masses lost by the punters on the favourites still outweighs it. they dont make money coz they tip well, they make money coz other ppl pick poorly... BIG DIFFERENCE

 

[Jeba]

Im not arguing about their odds, im saying they get it wrong on a head to head basis, just as much as u or i. they cant see the future mate

Yes they get the result of a game wrong. Happens weekly. The odds are seldom wrong though. That's the original point that Huge was making I think.

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

Im not arguing about their odds, im saying they get it wrong on a head to head basis, just as much as u or i. they cant see the future mate

Yes they get the result of a game wrong. Happens weekly. The odds are seldom wrong though. That's the original point that Huge was making I think.

I dont believe Huge was suggesting the odds were right anywhere, more so that they had us as favourites. Then dave comes in with odds, which no-one gives a rats ass about. look up, everyone including myself, nashy and broncospwn are simply talking about head to head.. no odds

 

[Jeba]

Are any of the head to head odds wrong in your eyes??

 

[Dave]

How about we tell u after the round is over, since they are so good they wont get any wrong anyway.

Im not arguing about their odds, im saying they get it wrong on a head to head basis, just as much as u or i. they cant see the future mate

and dave, seriously, they dont drive bmw's etc because they are good at picking winners... they drive them because they are good at assessing who is more likely to win in the publics eye, then using a formula so that even if the underdog wins, the masses lost by the punters on the favourites still outweighs it. they dont make money coz they tip well, they make money coz other ppl pick poorly... BIG DIFFERENCE

Agreed on all that mate - the amount of work that goes into putting those prices up though is a lot more than you would imagine. Believe me, I punt every week and I wish I could take them to the cleaners but they have the odds in their favour most of the time. I have probably swayed from the original argument but you won't convince me that bookmakers get it wrong often. You won't have many instances when a team paying $10 beats a team paying $1.04 will you? When teams are $1.90/$2.10 they can't get it wrong can they - it's almost an even money bet!

I reckon at times they are ripping off the punters - take Dogs v Roosters this weekend for example - why are we forced to take $1.85 for the Dogs when they are 0/2 and their opponent has averaged 40 points per game so far this season. If you just assessed it on results you would have the Roosters at $1.30 and the Dogs @ $3 wouldn't you think?

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

OMFG, we arent not talking about ODDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We are simply talking about who they have picked to win!!!! Odds are mathematically calculated based on who they think will win. We are only interested in who they think will win, not the likelihood of that happening. I really cant get this point across any stronger

but to answer your question yes, i think roosters should be favourites against the dogs.. dont u?

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

How about we tell u after the round is over, since they are so good they wont get any wrong anyway.

Im not arguing about their odds, im saying they get it wrong on a head to head basis, just as much as u or i. they cant see the future mate

and dave, seriously, they dont drive bmw's etc because they are good at picking winners... they drive them because they are good at assessing who is more likely to win in the publics eye, then using a formula so that even if the underdog wins, the masses lost by the punters on the favourites still outweighs it. they dont make money coz they tip well, they make money coz other ppl pick poorly... BIG DIFFERENCE

Agreed on all that mate - the amount of work that goes into putting those prices up though is a lot more than you would imagine. Believe me, I punt every week and I wish I could take them to the cleaners but they have the odds in their favour most of the time. I have probably swayed from the original argument but you won't convince me that bookmakers get it wrong often. You won't have many instances when a team paying $10 beats a team paying $1.04 will you? When teams are $1.90/$2.10 they can't get it wrong can they - it's almost an even money bet!

I reckon at times they are ripping off the punters - take Dogs v Roosters this weekend for example - why are we forced to take $1.85 for the Dogs when they are 0/2 and their opponent has averaged 40 points per game so far this season. If you just assessed it on results you would have the Roosters at $1.30 and the Dogs @ $3 wouldn't you think?

i just want to clarify dave, no-one ever suggested the bookies get the odds wrong, in most ppls heads, they are probably thinking the same thing. im just saying whiles the odds are right considering form etc, it still doesnt mean they will pick the winner more often than u or me

In MOST of the games with high odds, like $10 against $1.04 ur right, they dont get that wrong often, but then again, if its that clear cut who is going to win, 99% of tippers will also get that right. what im saying is they dont have that much advantage over picking who may or may not win, its still in the hands of the teams. When teams are 1.90 and 2.10, its pretty much 50/50 so they will get it right just as much as anyone else.

and i totally agree with the roosters, and i will be betting on them as such lol

 

[Jeba]

It's all one and the same Queenslander. Obviously, the team on shorter odds is the team they are tipping to win. And I believe the point that Huge was originally making is that the odds that bookies put up every week are usually accurate as to what most of the public believe the outcome of the game will be. Yes, they get some wrong on a weekly basis, but the result of the Bulldogs v Knights game from round 1 (for example) would've had them scratching their heads thinking "Maybe we got the odds wrong on that one", which is the same as saying "We tipped the wrong team in that game".

 

[Dave]

Yeah mate for sure.

Sorry but we are looking at this from opposite ends I reckon - I talk odds all the time - it's the punter in me!

 

[QUEENSLANDER]

It's all one and the same Queenslander. Obviously, the team on shorter odds is the team they are tipping to win. And I believe the point that Huge was originally making is that the odds that bookies put up every week are usually accurate as to what most of the public believe the outcome of the game will be. Yes, they get some wrong on a weekly basis, but the result of the Bulldogs v Knights game from round 1 (for example) would've had them scratching their heads thinking "Maybe we got the odds wrong on that one", which is the same as saying "We tipped the wrong team in that game".

Yeah mate i know lol, no-one here was ever arguing they get the odds wrong. but as i said above, if the tab has a game at 1.90 and 1.90 then they are split 50/50, as will the public. however if a game is 1.04 and 3.50 then its not just the TAB thinking that, its just about every single person in Australia. The odds they come up with actually are made to reflect how they think the public will bet, so really, by u guys saying the TAB rarely get it wrong, you are basically agreeing with me in saying that they get it wrong about as much as u and i