On paper, it does remind me of Game II 2001 and Game II 2019 where Queensland was riding high only to run into a stronger NSW and get their teeth kicked in. The only cause for optimism is that the Blues have gone back to Walker/Cleary which was a combination Fittler had no confidence in. If they start to flounder under pressure, it could just be enough to get Queensland over the line.
I can also see the game coming down to attrition. It can't have been good for some of these players to take two months off, play a finals quality game and then be expected to back up the following week. Especially a player like Tedesco who went into the series carrying an injury and got through a ridiculous amount of work. It's why I'm surprised that Papenhuyzen wasn't named on the bench, I thought for sure they would bring him in as a utility and play him like Bellamy did in 2019.
The Maroons really need Val to undergo a Gagai esque transformation at fullback. If he plays like he did for the Cowboys for the majority of the season, it's going to be a long night. I thought the 2018 series really helped Holmes' game that year and he came out of the series a much better player so I hope the same can happen here.