Hunt Signs with St George Illawarra

[Big Pete]

Hook got by on a couple of stop-gap options and like 2013 had his hand forced half-way through the season. Considering the Panthers were in this position not that long ago, it remains to be seen whether it'll be sustainable or if they'll have to change things up once again.

 

[john1420]

You'd only move Hunt on now if you didn't believe you were a top 4 contender I reckon (unless the next Langer is awaiting a contract that we can't afford under the cap)

 

[Maroon4life]

Didn't read the entire thread but i get the Jist of where it's at.

Hunt has to remain our #7 this year, regardless of his obvious faults he's still one of the best Halfbacks going around currently.

 

[Brent81]

We had a shit season and only failed to make the 4 on four and against...

Hell, we were only 4 games behind top spot...

Win the game against the Tigers, the Roosters and one against Penrith and we finish second....

Not that far away.

Need to not take any side for granted this year.

Win the games we should and we'll make the 4.

 

[Tunza's Chin]

I'm not ready to pull the pin on 2017 yet.

If the Broncos released or dropped Ben Hunt, they may as well front the media and declare their surrender to the rest of the competition. Despite his flaws, he's still the best halfback the Broncos have and have had since Alfie and if they're any chance of making the Top 4 it's with him at 7.

I don't believe in the concept of a rebuilding year. This isn't like the AFL where a couple of poor seasons will theoretically enable you to fill your roster with future stars. Rugby League doesn't operate in that fashion, it's all about coaching, building the team around certain individuals and moneyball.

Side-Tangent: Even when it comes to junior development, the majority of star talent are usually cherry-picked from other nurseries and happen to find themselves with the highest bidder. Before he was promised an NRL gig at 15, Ponga was a Broncos junior. Before the Roosters unearthed him, Tuivasa-Sheck was making a name for himself in New Zealand as a superstar junior. Brisbane signed Ash Taylor up as a 12 year old in 2007. They invested resource after resource only to realise that as soon as he was ready, there wasn't going to be a spot for him in the foreseeable future. The Broncos essentially wasted their time and money with nothing to show from it other than that giant piece of egg on their face.

Essentially, you've got to make the most of every season and put the best 13 on the paddock. At this stage, Hunt is clearly our best #7 and it's where he belongs until the end of the season.

I agree with almost everything in this post except the bold. I think there is such a concept of a rebuilding year in RL... But only when salary-cap mismanagement necessitates it. As you point out moneyball is key in RL these days.

Often it is better to accept your going to be in for a lean year regardless of what you do, and plan your salary cap longer term rather then buy the best available player in what is often a bandaid solution. Look at the roster of the Panthers now, compared to what is was pre-five year plan. Yes, they may not have realised any real success yet, but I don't think anyone would swap their current roster for their old one. The Eels obviously had a little assistance in recruiting, but they were nevertheless in a position to rebuild a much stronger roster thanks to Ricky and his overheard projector. The Raiders are another fair example of a club who've let stars go, sacrificing short for long term gain.

You compare that to a club like the dragons who I'd say have gone the bandaid solution ever since Bennett left. Fair enough as you point out, their roster looks worse this year than the last, but importantly they have been willing to bide their time in recruitment. The Dragons have made a big signing in Hunt, but it will be interesting to see which club comes back into premiership contention first. Either way, I'd bet the Knights will end up recovering in less time post-Bennett than the Dragons have based on current progress.

If Keary and Pearce gel and the Roosters return to genuine premiership contenders this year, a large part of that will be because they essentially wrote last year off as a rebuilding year. Yes there were a lot of other factors that resulted in them having a much worse season than they probably expected, but I don't think a roster manager as experienced and skilful and Politis thought they were in with a realistic chance in '16. Instead, they determined that the halves they had to partner Pearce weren't up to scratch, and that Mitchell wasn't ready just yet at the back. They've gone to market in both positions, and I think we'll see them reap the benefits this year.

I would say Melbourne is one of the only recent examples I can think of whose salary cap management has been disciplined and pragmatic enough to mean they are in with a realistic shot of the premiership each and every year without the need for a building year and roster regeneration. Too often clubs taste success, and end up paying a premium for too many of their 17, resulting in the need to rebuild.

Finally, our premiership window is still very realistically open this year, so it makes 0 sense to drop Hunt for the sake of a rebuilding year. Even if our long term half was with the Broncos this year, who the hell knows what will happen next year with half our squad off contract. You don't sacrifice a genuine title shot now, in the hope you'll create more genuine title shots in the future.

 

[Big Pete]

Great post, Tunza you raise a bunch of valid points.

I guess what I'm getting at is the idea that a rebuilding season, or even a rebuilding process doesn't lead to long term success. When was the last time we saw a real dynasty in the game? Manly maybe the closest we've come to and even then, it was based on a bunch of big name signings (Kennedy, Kite, Orford, Bell, Lyon etc.) before they started bringing up a crop of young players together.

Using Canberra as an example, for years they tried to develop their own talent, bring them through the grades only for them to fall and wind up being nothing more than Country players. It wasn't until they started hitting the cheque book and making offers to Sezer, Leilua, Austin, Paulo, Hodgson, Whitehead, Soliola, Tapine etc. that their fate started to shift. They effectively proved that the idea of 'blooding' players is dead and it's much easier to just take players from other teams if you want to be in the premiership race.

 

[Stix]

I agree with almost everything in this post except the bold. I think there is such a concept of a rebuilding year in RL... But only when salary-cap mismanagement necessitates it. As you point out moneyball is key in RL these days.

Often it is better to accept your going to be in for a lean year regardless of what you do, and plan your salary cap longer term rather then buy the best available player in what is often a bandaid solution. Look at the roster of the Panthers now, compared to what is was pre-five year plan. Yes, they may not have realised any real success yet, but I don't think anyone would swap their current roster for their old one. The Eels obviously had a little assistance in recruiting, but they were nevertheless in a position to rebuild a much stronger roster thanks to Ricky and his overheard projector. The Raiders are another fair example of a club who've let stars go, sacrificing short for long term gain.

You compare that to a club like the dragons who I'd say have gone the bandaid solution ever since Bennett left. Fair enough as you point out, their roster looks worse this year than the last, but importantly they have been willing to bide their time in recruitment. The Dragons have made a big signing in Hunt, but it will be interesting to see which club comes back into premiership contention first. Either way, I'd bet the Knights will end up recovering in less time post-Bennett than the Dragons have based on current progress.

If Keary and Pearce gel and the Roosters return to genuine premiership contenders this year, a large part of that will be because they essentially wrote last year off as a rebuilding year. Yes there were a lot of other factors that resulted in them having a much worse season than they probably expected, but I don't think a roster manager as experienced and skilful and Politis thought they were in with a realistic chance in '16. Instead, they determined that the halves they had to partner Pearce weren't up to scratch, and that Mitchell wasn't ready just yet at the back. They've gone to market in both positions, and I think we'll see them reap the benefits this year.

I would say Melbourne is one of the only recent examples I can think of whose salary cap management has been disciplined and pragmatic enough to mean they are in with a realistic shot of the premiership each and every year without the need for a building year and roster regeneration. Too often clubs taste success, and end up paying a premium for too many of their 17, resulting in the need to rebuild.

Finally, our premiership window is still very realistically open this year, so it makes 0 sense to drop Hunt for the sake of a rebuilding year. Even if our long term half was with the Broncos this year, who the hell knows what will happen next year with half our squad off contract. You don't sacrifice a genuine title shot now, in the hope you'll create more genuine title shots in the future.

Melbourne have managed to keep the big 3 together which is pretty impressive but they're due for a couple of lean seasons once Smith, Cronk and Slater finish. Special combinations like that are a once in a generation kind of thing.

 

[Marty Deutschmann]

Melbourne have managed to keep the big 3 together which is pretty impressive but they're due for a couple of lean seasons once Smith, Cronk and Slater finish. Special combinations like that are a once in a generation kind of thing.

Exactly. Will be a real test of Bellamy's credentials if he can build another team as successful as the ones he's had around the big 3. If he calls it quits once they retire... massive cop out

 

[Tera]

Melbourne = the San Antonio Spurs of the NRL.

 

[1910]

The perception of re-building is that you have to come second last and have a whole team of 18 year olds. The good teams are rebuilding every few years and doing it without coming last.

Brisbane have had rebuilding years all through their history. For example:

'90- Had exhausted the short term BRL players and moved on.
'95- Moved on the players from the successful sides in '92 and '93.
'00- Changed from the sides of the later success of the '90's.

Storm are terrific at it also; without having to sacrifice performance. Of the Grand Final 17- 12 were signed by the Storm before they were 19 years old. That's terrific planning and rebuilding.

Storm's 9 side this year 11 of the 19 came through their 20's. Bellamy is a great rebuilder of this side and has done it countless times.

Bellamy took over a basket case, missed the finals the two years before, it's Melbourne so little League resources or help, two coaches in two years had been spat out. They changed from Kearns to Howe as captain which caused all sorts of issues a year before he got there, they dumped Swain who had played every game in their history.

When the Storm made the finals in '00 for the last time before Bellamy took them there again in 2003 in his first year.

00- Geyer, Watts, Moule, Martin, Bai, Hill, Kimmorley, Kearns, Swain, Howe, Marquet, Kearney, Rua, Williams, Pomery, Bawden and Lavea.

03- Slater, Moala, Bell, King, Bai, Geyer, Orford, Kearns, Smith, Reynoldson, Robinson, Kearney, Kidwell, Turner, Williams, Sargent and Hoffman.


That's a new fullback, hooker and captain in his first year. Orford had completed two years at Melbourne so there is some stability. Bellamy rebuilt on the run hasn't stopped.

Move on again to the 07 Grand Final side:

Slater, Turner, King, Folau, Quinn, Inglis, Cronk, Cross, Smith, White, Newton, Hoffman, Johnson, Smith, Geyer, Crocker and Lima.

That's only six guys from his first year still there and they didn't miss the finals.

You only have 15 rookies and come second last if you are doing it poorly. If you're building good systems and resources with good people then your rebuilding is just happening all the time.

(I know the cap drama played a part but suspend that for a second)

 

[pagey]

The perception of re-building is that you have to come second last and have a whole team of 18 year olds. The good teams are rebuilding every few years and doing it without coming last.

Brisbane have had rebuilding years all through their history. For example:

'90- Had exhausted the short term BRL players and moved on.
'95- Moved on the players from the successful sides in '92 and '93.
'00- Changed from the sides of the later success of the '90's.

Storm are terrific at it also; without having to sacrifice performance. Of the Grand Final 17- 12 were signed by the Storm before they were 19 years old. That's terrific planning and rebuilding.

Storm's 9 side this year 11 of the 19 came through their 20's. Bellamy is a great rebuilder of this side and has done it countless times.

Bellamy took over a basket case, missed the finals the two years before, it's Melbourne so little League resources or help, two coaches in two years had been spat out. They changed from Kearns to Howe as captain which caused all sorts of issues a year before he got there, they dumped Swain who had played every game in their history.

When the Storm made the finals in '00 for the last time before Bellamy took them there again in 2003 in his first year.

00- Geyer, Watts, Moule, Martin, Bai, Hill, Kimmorley, Kearns, Swain, Howe, Marquet, Kearney, Rua, Williams, Pomery, Bawden and Lavea.

03- Slater, Moala, Bell, King, Bai, Geyer, Orford, Kearns, Smith, Reynoldson, Robinson, Kearney, Kidwell, Turner, Williams, Sargent and Hoffman.


That's a new fullback, hooker and captain in his first year. Orford had completed two years at Melbourne so there is some stability. Bellamy rebuilt on the run hasn't stopped.

Move on again to the 07 Grand Final side:

Slater, Turner, King, Folau, Quinn, Inglis, Cronk, Cross, Smith, White, Newton, Hoffman, Johnson, Smith, Geyer, Crocker and Lima.

That's only six guys from his first year still there and they didn't miss the finals.

You only have 15 rookies and come second last if you are doing it poorly. If you're building good systems and resources with good people then your rebuilding is just happening all the time.

(I know the cap drama played a part but suspend that for a second)

How do you suspend the cap drama at least 1 of the big 3 would've been let go through cap issues

 

[1910]

How do you suspend the cap drama at least 1 of the big 3 would've been let go through cap issues

Why? They weren't even when they were caught.

 

[pagey]

Why? They weren't even when they were caught.

But they still shouldn't of been able to keep all 3 of them together. If they didn't offer all the dodgy contracts and extras , at least one of them would've been enticed elsewhere.

 

[Kyall]

The main reason I really wanted to keep Hunt was to keep our spine intact. I hope our next half can gel good and we can hold our spine for years.

 

[Tunza's Chin]

I ageee the broncos under Bennett definitely have been one of the best sides when it comes to roster management and sustained success.

Rugby league is cyclical and the real pros like Bennett and Bellamy ensure that the troughs aren't too low.

My assumption has always been that Bennett gave himself until the end of this season to take it out with the current squad. I think we will see a relatively high turnover in players this year, regardless of how we go. We're already seeing it with hunt gone, and if I were a betting man, I'd put a fair chunk of change on Glenn going at the end of the season as well. He won't be the only one.

I think if the Roberts drama had of taken place next off season he would have been given the flick... A longer term view would have been taken in terms of protecting team culture etc. But, I reckon on balance Bennett thought we were a better chance come September with him on the field.

I've got no doubt where still going to be competitive next year, but pragmatically next year were not as likely to be premiership contenders and roster management decisions will he made accordingly. Whether that can be classed as a rebuilding year is debatable, but I'd say Bennett would be thinking '19 or '20 is what he will work towards.

That being said, who knows what will happen signing wise between now and then, we could land a good partner for Milf and they gel quickly... Again though we risk a bandaid solution.